Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Superb post Rubbish

Today i am literally walking in a Stuart Gray wonderland thanks to Coral and there laughably poor "compiling"

Nice work Horsey, and equally good self congratulation!

[Rubbish2407]

Thanks for all the kind words.

Didn't take as long as you would think to do, I've always been quick at doing things, just ask my Missus..

Tal, I hope you haven't taken offence, none was meant.

I couldn't put you under T with Tikay and Tighty to be included and with time running out there was only Y and Z to fill. Wouldn't have been right not including you so Z it was.

Keep posting the chess stuff, loved the Bill Gates - Magnus Carlsen Vid. Now there's a guy who can get things done quickly.

[horseplayer]

Cheers for the Gray tip Horseplayer.

No Problem

Now can Palace bring back Holloway please?

[Tal]

All fine, here.

I did mean it, though: updates ITT are for bets that Fred has had, rather than the followers. I'll likely be doing updates in Chess Thread in March, so daft to double them up here, when they have no relevance to Fred's ROI. Can always discuss that nearer the time, if needs be.

The toys remain in the Tal perambulator. Hard to take anything an arsenal fan says seriously. Did you know they were trying to get rid of Wenger last year?

[Tal]

I once had a parents' evening at school, straight after I had been given a B in chemistry in my report; a subject I'd always done well in. Mom and dad wanted to know what had changed this time.

The teacher gave the explanation:

"I don't like to be seen as soft. By the time I got down to W, I'd given too many A's out, so your son had to get a B."

[BigAdz]

I once had a parents' evening at school, straight after I had been given a B in chemistry in my report; a subject I'd always done well in. Mom and dad wanted to know what had changed this time.

The teacher gave the explanation:

"I don't like to be seen as soft. By the time I got down to W, I'd given too many A's out, so your son had to get a B."

Blimey. Looks like you got that nickname early on!

[TightEnd]

I have done 1053 words this morning on the Six Nations, which I will spare you

However the tournament  starts next weekend, always one of the most thrilling sporting tournaments of the year

We can thus try not to ruin February numbers game by game and market by market

Anyway, Rubbish has us on France at 3/1


I looked at the Top Try scorer market

Last year Cuthbert with 4 tries won it, ahead of others on 2 including Fofana

This has informed the way this market is priced up for this year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/top-tryscorer

Cuthbert is priced up to repeat, but I think this might be incorrect. 2 of Cuthbert's 4 tries were in England's capitulation on Cardiff where England's defending was of the cowardly matador with a cape variety in the face of a particularly stroppy bull

This year Wales have to go to Twickenham and Dublin with a number of players out (cf the French win in a Lions year point behind the France bet, with no break for nearly two years injury incidence in the four home nations top players is high)

France have 3 of 5 games at home

They have one of the most sublime players to watch in the Northern Hemisphere, Wesley Fofana. In 2012 with the same set of fixtures Fofana scored 4 tries in the Championship

He now has six 6N tries in total.

Fofana, of Malian descent, is known as "The Cheetah"



1.38 in this one is brilliant. Wonderful stuff



Fofana plays for Clermont alongside Nalaga. He will play fitness permitting all five games. He can create tries out of nothing. With no François Trinh-Duc, no Frédéric Michalak, no Morgan Parra, no Vincent Clerc, no Florian Fritz and no Camille Lopez due to injury Fofana is France's key creative player

While the prospects of Cuthbert, North, Ashton are all in prices, Fofana at 12-1 isn't in my opinion

France will be better this year, they have 3 of 5 at home and the each way, which for Fofana has landed each of the last two years is available at 1/4 the odds

We need also to consider the weather and the possibility that at least the early games of the tournament will be played on heavy pitches in bad weather. This might be said to count against the backs, and try scoring in general, in this years tournament. Possibly a tenuous point, but it might not take 4-5 tries to win this in 2014

Recommendation £20 e/w Wesly Fofana Top Six Nations Try Scorers at 12/1 (1/4 top four) (getVictor, Badbrokes, Corral, Baldfred, But365)

[The Camel]

Perfect Rich.

Exactly the sort of bet I was reffing to.

If someone is putting up a bet in Man Utd v Chelsea, no need to hide who it's with.

An each way bet on top try scorer? Let's keep it as quiet as possible

[Kmac84]

I'd like to suggest a smallish bet in the bishbashbosh screamy shouty snooker today.  On a personal level, I am havinga decent tournament I have 4 of my selections through to the last 16 from 6 picks, so I am hopeful thatI will be onto a decent sweat later today.  

One player I am disapppointed to have missed is Thepchaiya Un Nooh, I think he has aquitted himself fairly well and imo the format seems to suit his game.  He has enjoyed it and aguably been one of the more consistent players.  Sadly I missed the outright price.  But I like him to beat Mark Davis today at 6/5 on betfair.  As we all know this is a bit of a lotto, but to my eye this is more a coin flip and would have priced it more 9/10 and 11/10 the pair so I think there is a good arguement for betting this.  I would have reversed the odds though and made Un Nooh the favourite over this format.  

I suggest £25 @ 6/5

[henrik777]

Kris Commons first goalscorer 4/1

10 times he has done it this season. He is the same price as Stokes who couldn't strike a match. When Shearer was all the rage he was getting down to 5/2 for this market and his record wasn't a lot different.

Incredible price in my view. In fact if you could guarantee 4/1 every week for the rest of the season you'd be gutted not to be a right few quid up.

Sandy

I never realised this was a 12.45 Kick Off, so it has (just about) started now.

In truth, I had £25 @ 4/1 immediately I saw your Post, (I often do that sort of thing), but was awaiting feedback before adopting the Bet for Fred, and if it were negative, fine, I'd keep the bet off-thread. 

We'll have it for Fred.

£25 @ 4/1, Commons, FGS.

BET PLACED

Next two games he scores first !

Running bad

Sandy

[Kmac84]

TightEnd what do you think of the 11/1 for Fofana on the win only market that can be got on the exchange?  Would we be able to back him and maybe lay a bit back if he gets off to a decent start? 

[TightEnd]

TightEnd what do you think of the 11/1 for Fofana on the win only market that can be got on the exchange?  Would we be able to back him and maybe lay a bit back if he gets off to a decent start? 

you might, France start with two matches at home

but it is the 1/4 e/w in this type of market that is crucial, getting four places

3/1 top 4 is really very good value

[Tal]

I once had a parents' evening at school, straight after I had been given a B in chemistry in my report; a subject I'd always done well in. Mom and dad wanted to know what had changed this time.

The teacher gave the explanation:

"I don't like to be seen as soft. By the time I got down to W, I'd given too many A's out, so your son had to get a B."

Blimey. Looks like you got that nickname early on!

Winner?

No, but that's very kind of you

[Kmac84]

Doht, total misread on my part.  I thought Fofana was put up at 7/1 and rushed in and took the 11/1 on Betty. 

[tikay]

I'd like to suggest a smallish bet in the bishbashbosh screamy shouty snooker today.  On a personal level, I am havinga decent tournament I have 4 of my selections through to the last 16 from 6 picks, so I am hopeful thatI will be onto a decent sweat later today.  

One player I am disapppointed to have missed is Thepchaiya Un Nooh, I think he has aquitted himself fairly well and imo the format seems to suit his game.  He has enjoyed it and aguably been one of the more consistent players.  Sadly I missed the outright price.  But I like him to beat Mark Davis today at 6/5 on betfair.  As we all know this is a bit of a lotto, but to my eye this is more a coin flip and would have priced it more 9/10 and 11/10 the pair so I think there is a good arguement for betting this.  I would have reversed the odds though and made Un Nooh the favourite over this format.  

I suggest £25 @ 6/5

Betfair Sportsbook now go EVENS.