Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

12/1? blimey.

Can't be firm in March

Will move heaven and earth to make sure its not Heavy (covers?). It was desperate weather last year and still soft.

Do we get good to soft, or is that with the bookies?


Might commission a six week Bracknell Met centre forecast for Cheltenham

[Doobs]

12/1? blimey.

Can't be firm in March

Will move heaven and earth to make sure its not Heavy (covers?). It was desperate weather last year and still soft.

Do we get good to soft, or is that with the bookies?


Might commission a six week Bracknell Met centre forecast for Cheltenham

Good to soft odds on.  That is what they aim for first day.  12/1 still a definite bet.

[Doobs]

How about Cloudy Too in tomorrow's Ascot Chase for the free bet with Hills?

 I have been looking at the race with the intention of taking on Riverside Theatre, (who I love to oppose), and Captain Chris, (who I concede will be way better round here and could easily win), with an each-way bet.

 Medermit is back after 674 days and surely won't be knocked around, Hunt Ball is back here after adventures abroad, Kauto Stone is out of form and possibly doesn't stay, Sunny Ledgend is massively outclassed.

 I'm not certain Cloudy Too is the strongest each-way bet but it could easily win and it's 10/1 with Hills and 11.0-12.0 on Betfair so perfect for a free bet.

 SNR Free bets don't work very well on each way bets. If you back a 5/1 shot each
way at 1/5 odds and it is placed, the return is zero !

They take the whole stake off the place return.

He is saying win only as I read it.

[Bad Beat]

 Sorry Lisa, didn't explain myself properly. The reason I started looking at the race was for the each-way angle, I'm not certain Cloudy Too is the best ew bet in the race but it is a good bet win or each-way and it is the best price with Hills and no bigger on Betfair so win-only I think it's a good home for a free bet.

 For those not using a free bet it's not the worst ew bet in the world (I quite like it) but I might wait until tomorrow as the race has the dead eight and it would be a poor ew bet with 7-runners.

 Just to clarify...as a Grade 1 race this one closed early so bets today are like "day of race " bets. They are not ante-post. You get the price you take today but you may have a rule four and a change of ew terms if there is a NR.

[BigAdz]

Two suggestions for the weekend

First, and to give Marky a chortle..

Merry King in the Grand National Trial tomorrow.

Run two crackers at Haydock in big races. still well handicapped and only going to improve as a stayer(still only 7).

Much as I respect Richie Mclernon, he seems to be asleep to the fact that MK needs a bloody good beating urging along as the race quickens up, and its not until these races have finished that he gets MK rolling again.

Tomorrow we have no such issues as we have AP on board, for the first time since a totally unsuitable 2m nervous chase a while back. Difference maker in my book.

I was very keen on the with Coral earlier, as they only way I could see him not being in the frame was if he falls(Corals have a faller money back promo). Sadly I may have overdone it.

Anyway, he is generally

£20 ew @8s


Ok, head down Adz.

How the hell can Liverpool be almost 2-1 after last week?

Arsenal are now also without Carzola, and must be flat as a witches tit at the moment. Couldn't even beat a Manure team even more in the doldrums than us.

Opinions?

[sonour]

Sorry Lisa, didn't explain myself properly. The reason I started looking at the race was for the each-way angle, I'm not certain Cloudy Too is the best ew bet in the race but it is a good bet win or each-way and it is the best price with Hills and no bigger on Betfair so win-only I think it's a good home for a free bet.

 For those not using a free bet it's not the worst ew bet in the world (I quite like it) but I might wait until tomorrow as the race has the dead eight and it would be a poor ew bet with 7-runners.

 Just to clarify...as a Grade 1 race this one closed early so bets today are like "day of race " bets. They are not ante-post. You get the price you take today but you may have a rule four and a change of ew terms if there is a NR.

I guessed you wasn't suggesting each way for the free bet Neil
I just wanted to make sure Tikay didn't use the free bet in that way.

[Bazzaboy]

Derek Chisora vs Kevin Johnson should be an interesting boxing match on Saturday night.

It's Del Boy's marauding style versus Kingpin's extremely minimal effort. Chisora is the 1/5 favourite, that's 4/7 to win by decision and 3-1 for the stoppage. The price for it to go the distance looks all wrong to me, given how quickly the lazy Johnson let's his opponents into range it will make for a very long 12 rounds.

Johnson has only lost 4/34 bouts, 2 of his losses came in his last 3 fights and he doesn't look to have a lot of fight left in him. He's still a well known name but too much has been made of the fact he's never been stopped. In those losses his opponents have been comfortably ahead on the scorecard and did not need to go looking for the knockout. Chisora won't be looking for a points victory, recently he's been so over eager to blow his opponents out of there he has completely ignored the jab in favour of constant power shots. It's not a balanced plan but it should be effective when you consider Johnson's defense (or lack of).

When Johnson see's punches coming he's not fond of moving out the way. Instead he forms an unorthodox guard with his freakishly long arms up head to toe (one hand pointing north, one pointing south) across his torso and arches his back, moving his head out of range. It's strangely effective at distance but not when up close, he repeatedly let Solomon Haumono sit on him and crucially he never held or counter punched. He looks tailor made for Chisora's smothering style of working the body up close and throwing big looping punches round the guard.

Suggested bet £40 on Chisora by stoppage, 3-1 general is good, 4.3 on Betfair's Sportsbook is better.

Do you know who the ref is? With a random I'd say it's a decent bet, with some refs I'd say it's a fantastic bet. Kingpin will barely throw 10 punches a round and I can see a "British" stoppage in the 2nd have of the fight with Chisora throwing punches with little coming back from Kingpin.

[Tonji]

Not the best start from Pinturault, down nearly 2.5 sec from the leader after the downhill. He'll need an exceptional slalom to ski into Gold, not easy with the soft snow conditions.

Sigh, massive fail.

[horseplayer]

ul Tonji

Been cracking tips regardless all massively beaten the sp

[TightEnd]

Pretty emphatic win for Team GBs women in the curling. Stealing 5 against the head to win 12-3 in just 7 ends against Japan.

3-2 record now and hopefully positioning for the top 4

[tikay]

Derek Chisora vs Kevin Johnson should be an interesting boxing match on Saturday night.

It's Del Boy's marauding style versus Kingpin's extremely minimal effort. Chisora is the 1/5 favourite, that's 4/7 to win by decision and 3-1 for the stoppage. The price for it to go the distance looks all wrong to me, given how quickly the lazy Johnson let's his opponents into range it will make for a very long 12 rounds.

Johnson has only lost 4/34 bouts, 2 of his losses came in his last 3 fights and he doesn't look to have a lot of fight left in him. He's still a well known name but too much has been made of the fact he's never been stopped. In those losses his opponents have been comfortably ahead on the scorecard and did not need to go looking for the knockout. Chisora won't be looking for a points victory, recently he's been so over eager to blow his opponents out of there he has completely ignored the jab in favour of constant power shots. It's not a balanced plan but it should be effective when you consider Johnson's defense (or lack of).

When Johnson see's punches coming he's not fond of moving out the way. Instead he forms an unorthodox guard with his freakishly long arms up head to toe (one hand pointing north, one pointing south) across his torso and arches his back, moving his head out of range. It's strangely effective at distance but not when up close, he repeatedly let Solomon Haumono sit on him and crucially he never held or counter punched. He looks tailor made for Chisora's smothering style of working the body up close and throwing big looping punches round the guard.

Suggested bet £40 on Chisora by stoppage, 3-1 general is good, 4.3 on Betfair's Sportsbook is better.

That all looks good, thank you, & our Boxing Corry, Bazza, seems to like it, even with a random ref, so we are on.

£40 @ 0/30, Betfair Sportsbook, Chisora over Johnson by stoppage, Mcglashan



Chisora by KO, TKO or DQMethod of Victory    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000014
Multiples Stake per Bet
Some selections can't be combined in Multiples.
Total Stake: £40.



BET PLACED

[tikay]

How about Cloudy Too in tomorrow's Ascot Chase for the free bet with Hills?

 I have been looking at the race with the intention of taking on Riverside Theatre, (who I love to oppose), and Captain Chris, (who I concede will be way better round here and could easily win), with an each-way bet.

 Medermit is back after 674 days and surely won't be knocked around, Hunt Ball is back here after adventures abroad, Kauto Stone is out of form and possibly doesn't stay, Sunny Ledgend is massively outclassed.

 I'm not certain Cloudy Too is the strongest each-way bet but it could easily win and it's 10/1 with Hills and 11.0-12.0 on Betfair so perfect for a free bet.

Gotcha Lord G, thank you, & we never even had to run around like headless chickens.

We have a £25 FREE BET @ 10/1, Wm Hill, Cloudy Too, Ascot, Wm Hill.


14 Feb 2014 - 15th Feb 2014 - Betfair Ascot Chase - Outright

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Cloudy Too @ 10/1

Stake : £25.00


Estimated Returns : £

250.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000823/F



Free bet redeemed


BET PLACED

[tikay]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £44.04

Outstanding Bets £3293.67

Free Bet One to use with William Hill by tomorrow which we will run around like headless chickens trying to find a home for in 24 hours time

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19

A profit of £30 yesterday. Kane Williamson top scored for New Zealand in Wellington (47 in a total of 192), at 7/2, for a £70 profit . This was offset by Phil Taylor losing again to Adrian Lewis for a £40 loss

Elsewhere in the cricket Shikar Dhawan is 71* and Rohit Sharma is yet to bat so its like a 320 loss to come there, but the match will produce a nice profit for us overall

As Tonji reports we are up against it with M Pintaurault after the first run of the supercombined

We put up a free bet earlier in the week, I didn't realise it wasn't backed.  Will have a look later.

Edit.  What Neil said.

I missed two complete days of Bets, due to workload elsewhere, & so that was probably one of them.

Most of the proposed bets in that 2 day period (beginning of this week) may be stale now, but if time permits, I'll try & work through them later today. I seem to recall there was a Leasdinh Goalscoer bet amongst them, by Mr Chomps, too. Rebuff complaint incoming, which I'll re-rebuff.

[tikay]

Hilly's 12-1 about good ground for the opening race of the Festival looks an over-reaction to me, given Cheltenham tends to miss a lot of the weather and dries out very quickly. It's still a way off, and the ground has been good on the opening day five times in the past 11 seasons.
 
In one of those years it was heavy on the Saturday before the Festival and good by the following Friday. The Clerk loves to try and give good to soft if he can, but we also have good, good to soft patches running for us.

2013 Soft
2012 Good
2011 Good
2010 Good to Soft
2009 Good to Soft
2008** Good to Soft
2007 Soft
2006 Good to Soft
2005 Good
2004 Good
2003 Good

Interesting, thanks Mr W.

We got the 12/1, & it is now down to 10/1.

£25 @ 12/1, Wm Hill, Going "Good" for the Sun "We backed the whole bloody Field" Alliance Chase, Chelters, Chompy


Stake

Supreme Novices' Hurdle - What Will The Official Going Be On The 'Off' – Good @ 12/1

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000821/F


BET PLACED

[BigAdz]

Hilly's 12-1 about good ground for the opening race of the Festival looks an over-reaction to me, given Cheltenham tends to miss a lot of the weather and dries out very quickly. It's still a way off, and the ground has been good on the opening day five times in the past 11 seasons.
 
In one of those years it was heavy on the Saturday before the Festival and good by the following Friday. The Clerk loves to try and give good to soft if he can, but we also have good, good to soft patches running for us.

2013 Soft
2012 Good
2011 Good
2010 Good to Soft
2009 Good to Soft
2008** Good to Soft
2007 Soft
2006 Good to Soft
2005 Good
2004 Good
2003 Good

Interesting, thanks Mr W.

We got the 12/1, & it is now down to 10/1.

£25 @ 12/1, Wm Hill, Going "Good" for the Sun "We backed the whole bloody Field" Alliance Chase, Chelters, Chompy


Stake

Supreme Novices' Hurdle - What Will The Official Going Be On The 'Off' – Good @ 12/1

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000821/F


BET PLACED

I am in Chelts atm. Its abso chucking it down....again. lol