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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330544 times)
tikay
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« Reply #71415 on: March 17, 2014, 08:48:36 AM »



I note we still have a £25 Free bet on the WH Account, no idea when it expires, but it must be from a Cheltenham bet, so some time this week.
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« Reply #71416 on: March 17, 2014, 09:06:55 AM »

Daily Report

Loss on Month £632.75

Outstanding Bets £3597.68

Free bets to use ONE William Hill by 20th


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=22

Monday, Monday, so good to me
Monday morning, profits were all I hoped they would be

So sang the Mamas and Papas, almost. Incorrectly as it turns out, as there were three bets yesterday and three losers for £63 combined.

Manchester United proved once again illusory value at home, conceding sixteen penalties and losing for a loss of £25

The other Rooney, Adam, waiting til the penalty shoot out to notch for Aberdeen on the SLC final -£20

Castleford's game was about 20 points under the overs -£18


Liverpool now have 26 points out of their 30. Into 7/2 for the title. I gloss over a couple of lines in the spreadsheet, the "to finish bottom half" and "lay", and hope for the best

Despite Arsenal winning at Tottenham, Liverpool's storming run has the "Arsenal to finish top three" bet, which looked inspired for much of the season, looking ropey too

In better news

Top Scorers

25  Suarez
18  Sturridge
15 Agüero
13 Hazard
13 Yaya Touré

Just as well Sturridge is not on pens, really.

In the Tirreno-Adriatico with the final time trial to come it looks like close but no cigar for our two bets due to the re-emergence of that bastion of rectitude Alberto Contador, who has Quintana in 2nd

General Classification after Stage 5
ESP  1  CONTADOR VELASCO, Alberto (TINKOFF-SAXO)               21:01:30
COL  2  QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR)               + 2:08
CZE  3  KREUZIGER, Roman (TINKOFF-SAXO)                          + 2:15

and our each way play Moreno at 100/1

ESP  7  MORENO FERNANDEZ, Daniel (KATUSHA)                       + 2:51

Pretty good runs for our money though

At 9.30 Ireland v Zimbabwe World Twenty20, Group B, at Sylhet. We are on Kevin O'Brien for the Ireland matches. Win this game and Ireland should qualify for the final stages

Danny Ings won the 2013 Football League player of the year last night at a glittering awards ceremony in London. Encouragingly he did not limp when he went to the stage to collect his award. Are awards ceremonies ever not described as glittering? "Stephen Fry presented the drab BAFTA award ceremony at a dull London Palladium in front of a crushingly boring group of luvvies who spoke for too long and you can safely disregard the TV programme"

Perhaps not.



 

« Last Edit: March 17, 2014, 09:12:11 AM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #71417 on: March 17, 2014, 09:11:09 AM »







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« Reply #71418 on: March 17, 2014, 09:20:31 AM »

Love the Cycling photo Tighty, Steephill.TV? A new website added to my favourites.
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« Reply #71419 on: March 17, 2014, 10:29:55 AM »

Zimbabwe are batting against Ireland and are 81-3 off 9

Kevin O'Brien is listed to OPEN for Ireland (prices assume he is 5-6 as a finisher)

thread can't but you could 7-1, 13-2 top Irish bat for this match



http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/ireland-v-zimbabwe/top-ireland-batsman

Zim bowlers, hittable, Irealnd chasing a biggish total.....

He holds the world record for the fastest century ever scored at a World Cup, coming from 50 balls against England in 2011. This lad hits it miles

Obviously he is a hitter, he might not come off, but 13-2 the price of the day if he does get his eye in

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« Reply #71420 on: March 17, 2014, 10:31:30 AM »

Morning Tikay,

There were a few debates that I think we put off until after Cheltenham.

One was the future of Fred and the other was the use of free bets.

I would like to comment a little on the use of free bets.

Is it possible to get a figure please on our return on free bets ? My guess wold be that this is low and I don't think the reason for this is pure variance.

Because these free bets have a time limit we always seem to be rushing to use them.

Fred's EV with well thought out and well reasoned bets with no time pressure and able to choose bookmaker with the best odds is less than 10% so I doubt we have any edge at all with these free bets.

I think we need to consider arboys suggestion of extracting the cash from these free bets.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #71421 on: March 17, 2014, 10:37:32 AM »

Morning Tikay,

There were a few debates that I think we put off until after Cheltenham.

One was the future of Fred and the other was the use of free bets.

I would like to comment a little on the use of free bets.

Is it possible to get a figure please on our return on free bets ? My guess wold be that this is low and I don't think the reason for this is pure variance.

Because these free bets have a time limit we always seem to be rushing to use them.

Fred's EV with well thought out and well reasoned bets with no time pressure and able to choose bookmaker with the best odds is less than 10% so I doubt we have any edge at all with these free bets.

I think we need to consider arboys suggestion of extracting the cash from these free bets.


There is a tab for the free bets, which have been recorded individually since June 2013

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=26

There are 47 free bets used of which 3 have won, 1 was refunded and 5 remain live

The returns from the 3 winners are £422.50

Obviously the remaining 38 bets at £25 each lost


There is a different strategy that can be followed for free bets, as was outlined recently, my main question would be is it practical given time constraints to place the volume of bets required to convert the free bet value into cash?





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tikay
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« Reply #71422 on: March 17, 2014, 10:39:28 AM »

Morning Tikay,

There were a few debates that I think we put off until after Cheltenham.

One was the future of Fred and the other was the use of free bets.

I would like to comment a little on the use of free bets.

Is it possible to get a figure please on our return on free bets ? My guess wold be that this is low and I don't think the reason for this is pure variance.

Because these free bets have a time limit we always seem to be rushing to use them.

Fred's EV with well thought out and well reasoned bets with no time pressure and able to choose bookmaker with the best odds is less than 10% so I doubt we have any edge at all with these free bets.

I think we need to consider arboys suggestion of extracting the cash from these free bets.


Thanks Lisa.

Very happy to have the debate, though I can't contribute much, it's for the Maths lads really.

We are a net loser so far on "Free Bets" I think, though the sample size may invalidate that, I don't know.
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« Reply #71423 on: March 17, 2014, 10:43:21 AM »

Morning Tikay,

There were a few debates that I think we put off until after Cheltenham.

One was the future of Fred and the other was the use of free bets.

I would like to comment a little on the use of free bets.

Is it possible to get a figure please on our return on free bets ? My guess wold be that this is low and I don't think the reason for this is pure variance.

Because these free bets have a time limit we always seem to be rushing to use them.

Fred's EV with well thought out and well reasoned bets with no time pressure and able to choose bookmaker with the best odds is less than 10% so I doubt we have any edge at all with these free bets.

I think we need to consider arboys suggestion of extracting the cash from these free bets.


Talking of free bets Mrs Bandit i have a question for you regarding Ladbrokes Chelsea Man U free bets.  I have £300 on £25 free bets from the Chelski v Man U offer on horses at cheltenham under NRNB conditions where the horses didn't run.  Obviously under normal circumstances if i placed these bets in cash i would receive the £300 back in cash.  I know this isn't the case when you use a free bet but do you a) get £300 of free bet tokens as a refund or b) the bets are just settled as losers like the ladbrokes system/woman in the shop said yesterday when i went to collect them.  This is the first time i have ever dabbled with free bets as 99% of my business is conducted on bf nowadays.
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« Reply #71424 on: March 17, 2014, 11:05:30 AM »


We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9


If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.




« Last Edit: March 17, 2014, 11:08:13 AM by doubleup » Logged
tikay
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« Reply #71425 on: March 17, 2014, 11:14:27 AM »

Zimbabwe are batting against Ireland and are 81-3 off 9

Kevin O'Brien is listed to OPEN for Ireland (prices assume he is 5-6 as a finisher)

thread can't but you could 7-1, 13-2 top Irish bat for this match



http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/ireland-v-zimbabwe/top-ireland-batsman

Zim bowlers, hittable, Irealnd chasing a biggish total.....

He holds the world record for the fastest century ever scored at a World Cup, coming from 50 balls against England in 2011. This lad hits it miles

Obviously he is a hitter, he might not come off, but 13-2 the price of the day if he does get his eye in



Is he a biffer?
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« Reply #71426 on: March 17, 2014, 11:15:41 AM »

Morning Tikay,

There were a few debates that I think we put off until after Cheltenham.

One was the future of Fred and the other was the use of free bets.

I would like to comment a little on the use of free bets.

Is it possible to get a figure please on our return on free bets ? My guess wold be that this is low and I don't think the reason for this is pure variance.

Because these free bets have a time limit we always seem to be rushing to use them.

Fred's EV with well thought out and well reasoned bets with no time pressure and able to choose bookmaker with the best odds is less than 10% so I doubt we have any edge at all with these free bets.

I think we need to consider arboys suggestion of extracting the cash from these free bets.


Talking of free bets Mrs Bandit i have a question for you regarding Ladbrokes Chelsea Man U free bets.  I have £300 on £25 free bets from the Chelski v Man U offer on horses at cheltenham under NRNB conditions where the horses didn't run.  Obviously under normal circumstances if i placed these bets in cash i would receive the £300 back in cash.  I know this isn't the case when you use a free bet but do you a) get £300 of free bet tokens as a refund or b) the bets are just settled as losers like the ladbrokes system/woman in the shop said yesterday when i went to collect them.  This is the first time i have ever dabbled with free bets as 99% of my business is conducted on bf nowadays.

Sugar. I meant to Skype you about those free bets. I used mine on lockins and extracted more from them than I have ever done from SNR bets before.

Some bookmakers replace them with another free bet of the same value, some settle them as losers, and some settle them as losers but will replace them with another free bet if you talk to Customer Services.

Ladbrokes online fall somewhere between 2 and 3. Ladbrokes shops I don't know.

This is what I would do in your position. In the shops they have a leaflet with a Customer Services telephone number on. Call them and tell them you have ONE free bet that has been settled as a loser and you are so very disappointed. They may ask the shop to issue you another discretionary free bet. I have had very positive experiences with the Customer Services team on this telephone number.

If that doesn't work then try another shop in a different area. All shops have discretionary powers to issue free bets to replace these. However I do think you will only have any luck with one bet at a time.

Failing that I will talk to my favourite area manager and see if there is anything we can do. Smiley

Good luck
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« Reply #71427 on: March 17, 2014, 11:15:45 AM »

Morning Tikay,

There were a few debates that I think we put off until after Cheltenham.

One was the future of Fred and the other was the use of free bets.

I would like to comment a little on the use of free bets.

Is it possible to get a figure please on our return on free bets ? My guess wold be that this is low and I don't think the reason for this is pure variance.

Because these free bets have a time limit we always seem to be rushing to use them.

Fred's EV with well thought out and well reasoned bets with no time pressure and able to choose bookmaker with the best odds is less than 10% so I doubt we have any edge at all with these free bets.

I think we need to consider arboys suggestion of extracting the cash from these free bets.


There is a tab for the free bets, which have been recorded individually since June 2013

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=26

There are 47 free bets used of which 3 have won, 1 was refunded and 5 remain live

The returns from the 3 winners are £422.50

Obviously the remaining 38 bets at £25 each lost


There is a different strategy that can be followed for free bets, as was outlined recently, my main question would be is it practical given time constraints to place the volume of bets required to convert the free bet value into cash?






 It's not time consuming at all to back a golfer/correct score/any other event at 40/1 and lay 40/1 on bf.  It involves placing 2 bets (the free bet itself obv and then laying the same thing on bf) to convert the bet to cash.  It can involve tying up relatively large amounts of money in bf.  That's one downside.

With regard to the sample size for free bets it proves nothing at all.  You have had 41 bets at double figure prices and lost 50% of the stakes invested.  One more winner and the sample would be roughly break even, two more winners and the sample would be profitable.  Backing big prices increases variance.  The bigger the prices you back the more variance there is to convert your EV into actual cash.  That was the only reason for my alternative suggestion for free bets.  Given the time restrictions placed on free bets and the variance involved in backing huge prices to maximise their EV i personally prefer to take the zero variance style to convert them back into free cash.  Each to their own i suppose.
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sonour
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« Reply #71428 on: March 17, 2014, 11:18:15 AM »


We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9


If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.






Yes but my point is, because of the reasons I have stated, we are not finding the right bets.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #71429 on: March 17, 2014, 11:21:44 AM »

Zimbabwe are batting against Ireland and are 81-3 off 9

Kevin O'Brien is listed to OPEN for Ireland (prices assume he is 5-6 as a finisher)

thread can't but you could 7-1, 13-2 top Irish bat for this match



http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/ireland-v-zimbabwe/top-ireland-batsman

Zim bowlers, hittable, Irealnd chasing a biggish total.....

He holds the world record for the fastest century ever scored at a World Cup, coming from 50 balls against England in 2011. This lad hits it miles

Obviously he is a hitter, he might not come off, but 13-2 the price of the day if he does get his eye in



Is he a biffer?

Hopefully.
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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