Tips for Tikay

[sonour]

I think we have a bigger sample size on previous spreadsheets ?
Not that that will prove anything.
But I stand by my previous statement that I don't think our poor performance on free bets is purely down to variance.

[arbboy]

Morning Tikay,

There were a few debates that I think we put off until after Cheltenham.

One was the future of Fred and the other was the use of free bets.

I would like to comment a little on the use of free bets.

Is it possible to get a figure please on our return on free bets ? My guess wold be that this is low and I don't think the reason for this is pure variance.

Because these free bets have a time limit we always seem to be rushing to use them.

Fred's EV with well thought out and well reasoned bets with no time pressure and able to choose bookmaker with the best odds is less than 10% so I doubt we have any edge at all with these free bets.

I think we need to consider arboys suggestion of extracting the cash from these free bets.

Talking of free bets Mrs Bandit i have a question for you regarding Ladbrokes Chelsea Man U free bets.  I have £300 on £25 free bets from the Chelski v Man U offer on horses at cheltenham under NRNB conditions where the horses didn't run.  Obviously under normal circumstances if i placed these bets in cash i would receive the £300 back in cash.  I know this isn't the case when you use a free bet but do you a) get £300 of free bet tokens as a refund or b) the bets are just settled as losers like the ladbrokes system/woman in the shop said yesterday when i went to collect them.  This is the first time i have ever dabbled with free bets as 99% of my business is conducted on bf nowadays.

Sugar. I meant to Skype you about those free bets. I used mine on lockins and extracted more from them than I have ever done from SNR bets before.

Some bookmakers replace them with another free bet of the same value, some settle them as losers, and some settle them as losers but will replace them with another free bet if you talk to Customer Services.

Ladbrokes online fall somewhere between 2 and 3. Ladbrokes shops I don't know.

This is what I would do in your position. In the shops they have a leaflet with a Customer Services telephone number on. Call them and tell them you have ONE free bet that has been settled as a loser and you are so very disappointed. They may ask the shop to issue you another discretionary free bet. I have had very positive experiences with the Customer Services team on this telephone number.

If that doesn't work then try another shop in a different area. All shops have discretionary powers to issue free bets to replace these. However I do think you will only have any luck with one bet at a time.

Failing that I will talk to my favourite area manager and see if there is anything we can do.

Good luck

I have already converted them into cash at roughly 98% rate backing a 16/1 shot in gold cup nrnb and laying 14/1 on the machine so it's literally a total freeroll to get another £300 of free bets which equates to roughly £285 in cash for free.  Happy to invest in some cakes for your fav manager if she can swing it!!

[doubleup]

We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9

If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.

Yes but my point is, because of the reasons I have stated, we are not finding the right bets.

One of the selection criterion for free bets was meant to be that the bet could be laid on Betfair for the same price and is obviously mandatory anyway for the lay-off method.  So any bet that you can lay off on Betfair *should* also be a neutral ev bet at the bookie - laying off is just paying commission to reduce variance.

[TightEnd]

I think we have a bigger sample size on previous spreadsheets ?
Not that that will prove anything.
But I stand by my previous statement that I don't think our poor performance on free bets is purely down to variance.

there is, but i don't think its an effective use of time to go through all the months prior to June 2013 to get figures from a bigger sample size. From memory the free bet win incidence was a bit higher before June 2013

I happen to agree with you, btw, don't think we find the best stuff when we are in a rush (we have seven days to use a bet, invariably there is a scramble on day seven to find something) but we've also had some near misses too, so off 40-50 total bets the figures can easily skew up or down pretty easily

[tikay]

Zimbabwe are batting against Ireland and are 81-3 off 9

Kevin O'Brien is listed to OPEN for Ireland (prices assume he is 5-6 as a finisher)

thread can't but you could 7-1, 13-2 top Irish bat for this match



http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/ireland-v-zimbabwe/top-ireland-batsman

Zim bowlers, hittable, Irealnd chasing a biggish total.....

He holds the world record for the fastest century ever scored at a World Cup, coming from 50 balls against England in 2011. This lad hits it miles

Obviously he is a hitter, he might not come off, but 13-2 the price of the day if he does get his eye in

It seems he did NOT open.......


http://www.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/match/682901.html

[sonour]

We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9

If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.

Yes but my point is, because of the reasons I have stated, we are not finding the right bets.

One of the selection criterion for free bets was meant to be that the bet could be laid on Betfair for the same price and is obviously mandatory anyway for the lay-off method.  So any bet that you can lay off on Betfair *should* also be a neutral ev bet at the bookie - laying off is just paying commission to reduce variance.

If we only ever bet on selections where we are beating Betfair in a liquid market then I agree we should NOT lay off on  Betfair.

[Omm]

We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9

If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.

Yes but my point is, because of the reasons I have stated, we are not finding the right bets.

One of the selection criterion for free bets was meant to be that the bet could be laid on Betfair for the same price and is obviously mandatory anyway for the lay-off method.  So any bet that you can lay off on Betfair *should* also be a neutral ev bet at the bookie - laying off is just paying commission to reduce variance.

If we only ever bet on selections where we are beating Betfair in a liquid market then I agree we should NOT lay off on  Betfair.

Fascinating conversation, question:

Is that because we are beating the true price (which we presume or know bf is?) and in the long run they will win? even in reality they could all lose.

[arbboy]

We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9

If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.

Yes but my point is, because of the reasons I have stated, we are not finding the right bets.

One of the selection criterion for free bets was meant to be that the bet could be laid on Betfair for the same price and is obviously mandatory anyway for the lay-off method.  So any bet that you can lay off on Betfair *should* also be a neutral ev bet at the bookie - laying off is just paying commission to reduce variance.

If we only ever bet on selections where we are beating Betfair in a liquid market then I agree we should NOT lay off on  Betfair.

Fascinating conversation, question:

Is that because we are beating the true price (which we presume or know bf is?) and in the long run they will win? even in reality they could all lose.

We assume the bf price is always correct however in reality this isn't true otherwise no one would ever make any profit on betfair in the long term.  For example in a 6 runner race ie a dice being thrown every outcome would be 5/1 and the money would just churn through the system and betfair via commission would be the only winner long term. 

Betfair is obviously a very good guide to someone's chance's of winning an event in certain circumstances where there is a very strong liquid market close to kick off and all info is known.  However even in circumstances like this as redarmi discussed yday in high profile tv sports the sheer weight of casual money can skew markets.  The trouble with betfair is you never know whether you are dealing with tony bloom or a under the cosh punter who is chasing and drunk and hasn't got a clue.

[Graham C]

Roma play Udinese tonight and have only let in two goals at home all season.   It seems value to me that Roma to win to nil at 2.28 (Betfair) is pretty decent odds.   They've also got Totti back who's been injured for a while.   

Welcome some other input but have had a small bet on it.

[arbboy]

Anyone else think 7/2 no manager sacked til the end of the EPL season is a big price?  The two shortest teams in relegation market both around 2/7 (cardiff and Fulham) are both massive rags in the next manager sacked manager.  I am struggling to see who can actually get sacked in the next 8 weeks and what sense it would make to sack them tbh.  Views welcome.

[Marky147]

Anyone else think 7/2 no manager sacked til the end of the EPL season is a big price?  The two shortest teams in relegation market both around 2/7 (cardiff and Fulham) are both massive rags in the next manager sacked manager.  I am struggling to see who can actually get sacked in the next 8 weeks and what sense it would make to sack them tbh.  Views welcome.

I almost whacked into the 11/2 with Patrick yesterday, but then thought that someone is bound to get jogged over the next month or so.

[redarmi]

Anyone else think 7/2 no manager sacked til the end of the EPL season is a big price?  The two shortest teams in relegation market both around 2/7 (cardiff and Fulham) are both massive rags in the next manager sacked manager.  I am struggling to see who can actually get sacked in the next 8 weeks and what sense it would make to sack them tbh.  Views welcome.

If the rumours coming out of Manchester this morning about rows with Ryan Giggs and Fergie considering coming back then I wouldn't be amazed if Moyes wasn't in a job by the end of the week if they go out of the Champions League.

[sonour]

Betfred refunding everyone who bet on Man U to win EPL

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2582537/Manchester-United-fan-Betfred-owner-Fred-Done-refund-200-000-worth-bets-David-Moyes-misfits-winning-Premier-League.html#ixzz2wDlrNurA

[TightEnd]

who, of the sides odds against to go down and from West Ham down are the value price to drop?

Any love for Swansea at 10-1 to go?

[Doobs]

We are def using the free bets correctly in theory as eg

£10 free bet - bookies odds 9-1 can be laid on betfair at 9-1

We put the £10 on with the book and get £90 back 10% of the time

so that's £9

If we were to lay off on the whole bet on Betfair

We get nothing if the bet wins but get 9.50 (commission deducted!!) 90% of the time,

so that's £8.55


If we go the more complicated route and split the bets by laying off £5 on betfair we get

£4.75 (commission deducted) 90% of the time from Betfair plus £45 10% of the time from the bookie

so thats £8.775


There is still variance in all the methods and if you can find the right bets the lowest variance is the middle method with the lowest return.

Yes but my point is, because of the reasons I have stated, we are not finding the right bets.

I bumped the maths in betting thread for this discussion.  That way we can see the discussion properly and it doesn't keep getting lost and then repeated.  

Previously Arbboy suggested backing golfers, I responded pointing out Hills were usually pretty low at pricing up golfers, and included the maths and expected losses. Today Arbboy suggests backing golfers.  

Today doubleup again produces some more maths suggesting arbbing isn't the most profitable option in the long run, you respond by just stating our bets are wrong, no maths, nada.  I have a feeling of deja vu at this point.  

Please put it on the other thread, and people who want to can discuss it and the argument can be properly started and properly finished.  

I simply haven't the time to find the absolute perfect free bet every time, or for these infernal ever repeating arguments.  If it isn't this one, it is the one about whether they belong on the thread at all.  No other bets get this amount of scrutiny.  These are only £25 bets, and I get zero profit from the time I spend doing them here.  I'd rather just spend time with my family, play a bit of poker, rather than try and eek out a few more pennies or work out the absolutely perfect way for other people to make a fiver. 

We have just been the victim of a bit of bad variance on thread, off thread I have done fine.  We have probably had some bad free bets, and some bad non free bets over the last year.  Every so often something really terrible will get through, but overall we have been fine.

I am done. I have been doing this too long, and am happy for anybody to take it over and mould it whatever way they like.  The maths is available on the other thread so people can just do their own thing. I will just stick to standard value bets on thread from now on.