Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £652.75

Outstanding Bets £3597.68

Free bets to use ONE WILLIAM HILL BY 20TH MARCH THAT'S TOMORROW

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=22


One bet completed yesterday, a £20 loss on o2.5 at Kenilworth Road as Luton were beaten by Woking 1-0. Inevitably we had rather missed the boat on the prolific Luton side. They now have scored just one goal in last three Skrill Premier games. Previous five matches they scored 22.

In other news

- Our Cycling bets hit the last stage of the Tirrenico-Adriatico today, a time trial, long odds against to scoop. No changes yesterday as Cavendish won a flat stage

- Ireland beat Zimbabwe in a thriller in the T20WC, off the last ball. Kevin O'Brien scored 17 off 10 balls. The more games Ireland play, and yesterday's result should ensure they are through to meet the big boys in the group stages, the more chance Kevin has to do some damage

- Sri Lanka, one of our tournament bets, beat India by 5 runs in a warm up, which is encouraging

- Sheffield United drew 0-0 in a torpor-fest at Preston. That's 11 games unbeaten and 9 clean sheets in those games. United are 10 points off the Fenland Inconsistents in 6th, with a game in hand. Not impossible to reach the top six for us, but the run needs to continue

- In La Liga last night our two sides Villareal and Bilbao drew 1-1. Bilbao are 4th, some 15 points behind A.Madrid, whose wonderful season is going to scupper both "league without the big two" bets

- In Serie A Napoli won at Torino last night and Fiorentina won on Sunday. Napoli are currently 3rd, 10 points clear of Fiorentina in 4th. We have Napoli e/w at 8-1 so that is looking good, at least.

- In the NBA The Brooklyn nets have now won 8 of their last 10 games, are second in the Eastern divison of the Atlantic Conference and currently 6th seed for the play-offs. The oldest position in our book, we have 25/1 about them being NBA Champions. Things are looking up there.

[TightEnd]

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[tikay]

What on earth is that about, Rich?

That's not part of a cricket match, surely?

Trevor Bailey must be turning in his grave.

Disgraceful.

Proper cricket is played in whites, Boycott & Edrich v the quickies, 39-0 at Lunch on Day One. 

[TightEnd]

What on earth is that about, Rich?

That's not part of a cricket match, surely?

Trevor Bailey must be turning in his grave.

Disgraceful.

Proper cricket is played in whites, Boycott & Edrich v the quickies, 39-0 at Lunch on Day One. 

the last ball, scores are tied

the Zimbabwe wicketkeeper chooses to stand back, confident that he will hit the stumps if they run for a bye

the ball comes down, the batsman misses, both batsmen run hell for leather, the wicketkeeper gathers it, throws at the stumps...

fielders converge on the wicket, in anticipation

He misses!

The Irish batsman dives, he's in!

the bowler dives to get the ball, and throw at the other end

He turns round, the other batsman is in.

[tikay]

Will share my tip from the Cycling Thread.

Milan - San Remo this weekend, it's the first of the single day 'classic' races of the season.

J J Rojas currently being offered at 100/1, Sky Bet paying top 4 for E/W bets.  He's on very good form having last week scored a few good stage placings and 4th overall in the Paris-Nice stage race and this race suits his style of racing very well, being a good sprinter who is able to get over the hills with the strong men.

I think this is a very good price for someone who will definitely be there or thereabouts in the final reckoning. Would recommend £10 e/w, due to there being an awful lot of serious contenders. If Fred wants to get on, there are a couple of bookies paying 3 places for the same price. Would crack me up if our man finished 4th, and we were all patting our backs while Tikay sat there with a face like a slapped arse. Haha. I'd have to give him his score back, I guess.

Ha, you know me too well.

I'd very much like to do this, & we'd credit the bet to Simon (Slykllist), as it'd be his maiden Fred Bet.

Howeverrrrrrrrr.....

Here's the market, & as I was awol last night, playing poker would you believe, I missed the 100/1, & he is now 66/1 best.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/milan-san-remo/winner


UNIBET are WIN only.

BMU do EW, but are only 33/1.

I don't bet with S** Bet

Bet365 offered me £0.15p (15 PENCE) EW.

So I think Fred has to miss this, sadly.

Keep them coming though.

[TightEnd]

Home for a free bet?

Derbyshire 7-1 to win County Championship Div Two (which starts in 19 days) Wlliam Hill

fourth favourites behind surrey, hants and essex. At least 4 of the 9 teams in this are genuine outsiders due to financial considerations, squad depth and strength. derbyshire have just produced their 8th profit in 9 years and have no such concerns

market skewed because surrey have big names, but actually they are rebuilding with youngsters and can be opposed at the price

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/winner

Derbyshire just got relegated last season, actually a very creditable performance, have one of the best domestic batsmen in madsen, an overseas in chanderpaul who churns out runs and a lot of young talent (particularly spinners, which is unusual for them)

Most importantly of all they play at Derby (yes, they do) which produces result wickets.....and this is vital with 24 points for winning a game with max bonus points compared to a maxmium of 11 for the draw

you need to win games, and surrey play at the oval, which is not prepared to produce result wickets. hampshire at the ageas also, only result wickets in the second half of the season when they dry out to take spin


secondary bet £15 e/w derbyshire william hill 7-1 1/5 top 3. I have them in my top three every day of the week at this stage

--

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winner

cc1 is genuinely tough, i could make a case for six of the teams in a really tight heat, and i won't be recommending a bet this season. hopefully gherkin has some ideas.   

[Slykllist]

Not a lot in the cycling market today, final stage of Tirreno Adriatico (today) is a short time trial which Tony Martin should and almost certainly will win.  If this goes to form I would expect Fabian Cancellara to finish 2nd.  I've seen a price of 14/1 for a 1st/2nd forecast on the unmentionable site.  If you can get this elsewhere it's a good price for what I would expect to be the result 90% of the time.

[tikay]

Home for a free bet?

Derbyshire 7-1 to win County Championship Div Two (which starts in 19 days) Wlliam Hill

fourth favourites behind surrey, hants and essex. At least 4 of the 9 teams in this are genuine outsiders due to financial considerations, squad depth and strength. derbyshire have just produced their 8th profit in 9 years and have no such concerns

market skewed because surrey have big names, but actually they are rebuilding with youngsters and can be opposed at the price

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/winner

Derbyshire just got relegated last season, actually a very creditable performance, have one of the best domestic batsmen in madsen, an overseas in chanderpaul who churns out runs and a lot of young talent (particularly spinners, which is unusual for them)

Most importantly of all they play at Derby (yes, they do) which produces result wickets.....and this is vital with 24 points for winning a game with max bonus points compared to a maxmium of 11 for the draw

you need to win games, and surrey play at the oval, which is not prepared to produce result wickets. hampshire at the ageas also, only result wickets in the second half of the season when they dry out to take spin


secondary bet £15 e/w derbyshire william hill 7-1 1/5 top 3. I have them in my top three every day of the week at this stage

--

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winner

cc1 is genuinely tough, i could make a case for six of the teams in a really tight heat, and i won't be recommending a bet this season. hopefully gherkin has some ideas.  

Lovely, that's the Summer sorted.

Both bets placed, exactly as per.

£25 Free Bet, Derbyshire to Win Div 2, £25 @ 7/1, WIN

Derbyshire to win Div 2, £15 EW @ 7/1.  


18 Mar 14 / 10:50

Stake

County Championship Division 2 2014 - Outright – Derbyshire @ 7/1

- £30.00

O/0457483/0000888/F



18 Mar 14 / 10:49

Stake

County Championship Division 2 2014 - Outright – Derbyshire @ 7/1

£0.00

O/0457483/0000887/F



2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Hi Tikay, I'm here every day, still read every single post ever on Fred, just have a watching brief when there's nuthin for me to add. I'll update some of our bball bets this week, playoffs start in a few weeks and anyone in Vegas for the early WSOP will get to see some of the games over there. Thought you'd like this exchange from a live chat with support I just had at Boyles, who assure me my acc is not restricted, it's just in some markets the traders choose not to take larger bets:

Megan @ Boylesports
This has been decided by our Traders.

Jeff
1p is the maximum bet they'll take? At a liability of 4p?

Megan @ Boylesports
You may try to lower the bet.

Jeff
lower than 1p?

10:46 pm
Megan @ Boylesports
Yes.

1p!

Proper ice-cream now, then. Well done.


Good to know you are still here, Jeff, even if only lurking. Actually, I prefer it when you are quiet.

If I make Vegas, I expect you to sit with me when that Basketball stuff is on, & explain it all. I did watch it from Binions a few years ago, & learn a ton of stuff about NBA. The Away Team always plays in white, right?

Playing PLO8 in Vegas in front of a giant plasma, screening the NBA finals, heaven, or what?

[Big_D]

Not a lot in the cycling market today, final stage of Tirreno Adriatico (today) is a short time trial which Tony Martin should and almost certainly will win.  If this goes to form I would expect Fabian Cancellara to finish 2nd.  I've seen a price of 14/1 for a 1st/2nd forecast on the unmentionable site.  If you can get this elsewhere it's a good price for what I would expect to be the result 90% of the time.

In for the sweat.

[tikay]

Not a lot in the cycling market today, final stage of Tirreno Adriatico (today) is a short time trial which Tony Martin should and almost certainly will win.  If this goes to form I would expect Fabian Cancellara to finish 2nd.  I've seen a price of 14/1 for a 1st/2nd forecast on the unmentionable site.  If you can get this elsewhere it's a good price for what I would expect to be the result 90% of the time.

In for the sweat.

That's bokked him then. Nothing more certain.

LAY

[Big_D]

Not a lot in the cycling market today, final stage of Tirreno Adriatico (today) is a short time trial which Tony Martin should and almost certainly will win.  If this goes to form I would expect Fabian Cancellara to finish 2nd.  I've seen a price of 14/1 for a 1st/2nd forecast on the unmentionable site.  If you can get this elsewhere it's a good price for what I would expect to be the result 90% of the time.

In for the sweat.

That's bokked him then. Nothing more certain.

LAY

I should have waited until you got some on before announcing the bokkage really

[tikay]

I hope no offence was taken at my previous post but Tikay has himself in the past suggested one of the reasons he ias adverse to taking long term positions is you don't know what's round the corner, well that's how I read it.  
Anyway, back to the matter in hand making money.  

Followers on here may recall that I suggested laying rangers in their home game against Albion Rovers a week or so ago.  I thought the 1.09 was way too short given how they had been playing and struggling at ibrox in recent games. Although winning they had conceded many a soft goal.  On the road they are notably better and don't seem to concede the silly goals as much.  

Tonight they are playing Albion in the replay.   The game is not being played at Cliftonhill which is the home stadium of Rovers so they won't have any sort of home field advantage.  

I expect that the Rangers will come through the tie this evening reasonably unscathed and think they will prove far too powerful for the Rovers tonight.  I think the Euphoria of the upset at Ibrox will be too much for Rovers to handle and despite the fact they rested almost their whole first team at the weekend I expect this will be to their detriment.  

Having a look at the betfair prices and the sportsbooks I think there is a smidge of value in backing  the Rangers -2 @ 11/10 on betfair.  Realistically I think this game will be dead and burried by halftime and would be surprised if Rangers don't win by 4 or 5 this evening.  

You read it perfectly. No offence whatsoever, I promise. Its a fact of life, I think about it every day. Not with sadness, or fear, it's just a fact.

A horse was put up here last week for Cheltenham 2015. And my immediate reaction was 33/1 for the horse to win the Champion Hurdle in 2015, but what price me still being around? I'd not much like a winning bet to be left with the Bookie.

In fact, an Actuary - do we have an Actuary here? - could probably give me a price. I'm 67, never eat veg, have smoked since I was 15, am overweight, eat bad food, & work & worry too much. Can't be much more than 7/2. If you can get 5/1, might be worth a small interest. (Win only).

Will look at that Rangers game shortly, for Rangers -2.

Thanks.

[TightEnd]

its that time again

[claypole]

Liking "finish the job" at 7/4

Nb not a reccendation