Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Back to Music Master, he's best in at the weights, even giving 4lb to Redvers and 9lb to Mar Mar, and is open to more improvement.

This is 6f round Warwick, which is as sharp as they come. Redvers is a 7f horse through and through, and Mar Mar never wins.

Also, MM won first time up last year and Candy's are usually ready on comeback. 7/4 MM, 2/1 Redvers, 5/2 Mar Mar is nuts imo.

All Redvers best form in big fields with lots of pace too Chompy?

Yup, totally. The difference between a Victoria Cup and a 6f conditions race round Warwick in a small field is massive. Price has timberrrrrredddddd.

Doesn't it say it all about Choral that they had to refer a bet of £105-£60?

Just goes back to the £25k 'loltraders' who literally can't price up a coin flip it's quite embarrassing how someone claiming to be a horse racing 'compiler' can make such ricks on races which are not exactly the toughest to price up.

I saw a stunning to me anyway convo on Twitter this week  (I think Neil was involved in the convo) where one of the Corals guys was saying that bookamakers would struggle if they had no FOBT's and had to resort to just bookmaking again. Was almost along the lines of ' well if bookmaking is so easy then set up a shop and see how that goes etc etc.

If I had a Twitter account I so wanted to ask him how many FOBT's Bet365 have and how come they have managed to become an industry leader in ten years without the huge FOBT advantage that bricks and mortar operators have. It was a if the guy was just saying we don't want to be just bookamakers coz it's too hard when we have all this free and risk free cash coming in.

Game is in a terrible shape.

The coral guys on twitter are comical the head of football and racing.  They say 'we love laying a bet as long as you are not an arber/we lay 99% of stuff we get asked for blah blah' yet they go up with their own horse racing prices when no money in bf at all for the next day so you can't be an 'arber' and you still get a £105/£60 referred on one of the best races tomorrow on the jolly.  It's comical.  I assume when they go 7/4 they actually make it a 2/1 or 9/4 shot to go 7/4 with margin. 

[horseplayer]

Lots of reporters of punters in Coral who refuse to sign the petition being refused bets or worse still told to not come back

What great customer service the high street books have

[arbboy]

Lots of reporters of punters in Coral who refuse to sign the petition being refused bets or worse still told to not come back

What great customer service the high street books have

the 'enough is enough' title of the campaign is comical.

[mulhuzz]

Noobish question but why do the bookies care if I'm an arber?

Presumably they think that every bet they make is +EV for them so why not just fucking get on with it?

[arbboy]

Noobish question but why do the bookies care if I'm an arber?

Presumably they think that every bet they make is +EV for them so why not just fucking get on with it?

Because the £25k 'loltraders' think they are great judges/compilers but the reality is they are clueless and the bottom line P+L of their dept/sport proves this when the accountants review the figures at the end of the year and see how much the 'arbers/judges/anyone with a clue' win each year.  Without wishing to brag when i was a trader in the game for firms 10 years ago i used to phone up known arbers myself and ask them to effectively get my firm on with other firms and guarantee them £xk at a certain price based on their ability to hoover up all the bad firms' prices and they would make their 0.5/1% on their arb with no risk.  Pinnacle effectively do the same and are happy to accommodate arbers.  If the firms paid city type salaries for city style quality of compilers and traders like numerous people on here who left the industry to punt for themselves, they would get a quality of product where they could happily take on arbers and effectively bet with the bad firms themselves.  The reality of the industry is as stated.  They have relied on fobt's for 10 years to pay the bills and refused to pay for any trading talent and just choose to close any account that wins and call them 'arbers' whether they are arbers or not.  The majority of trading teams are full of all the talentless people/degens who need a wage to sposnor their punting habit because all the decent judges left the game years ago to work tax free for themselves.

[Dubai]

Basically a traditional nitty arber is seen as a parasite by firms, the firms can't check prices quick enough to adjust them accordingly and people can pick them off as soon as "bf is Unders"

They are the equivalent of headsup bumhunters online but without the skill- don't play in any situation they aren't sure they don't have a guaranteed edge.

Can be seen congratulating themselves pre race for having an all green book for £25 all round, then often seen a couple days later crying to the high heavens they can't get on and these damn firms ain't what they used to be

[Dubai]

The middle aged generation seem to struggle the most to get on- they tend to love this tho and reveal in their shrewdness. Like the 2 jokers that made the youtube video- probably been winning punters for years, decent horse racing judges- had all their accounts shut for backing horses between 10am and noon taking prices. Continue to try and get on doing the same thing tho, with the same method, at the same time, probably giving no action inbetween. And now wanna cry they can't get on. Not exactly rocket science..

As LilDave always told me, more to poker than being good. What's the point being a really profitable poker player if you can't get in a game where you can be really profitable.

[mulhuzz]

So arbboy cliffs: if firms were better at pricing up then anyone could get any amount (subject to overall liability for market) on?

@dubai - I get that ofc but surely if I'm arbing your bet on bf then as long as you've done job properly you still have best of bet with me.

Unless you're saying that in most cases where an arb is possible the bookie has laid a bad price (not just non-optimum, but actual -EV) and then I'd understand more.  Surely arbing a greater problem pre bf days? Because actually draining bookie liquidity....?

[Dubai]

To stay in the game everyone needs to adjust and learn, younger generations tend to do this way quicker- it's the same in gambling as poker. The best in gambling find a way of getting on- no point spotting ricks and betting pennies

[Dubai]

Mulhuzz it's 1000000x easier for an arber to have a cursory glance at bf and spot a rick than an odds compiler to never make a mistake. Variables can change quicker than you can adjust all prices for example

They don't wanna lay their bets as they are only getting picked off when the price is wrong- and it's not someone betting their opinion

[mulhuzz]

To stay in the game everyone needs to adjust and learn, younger generations tend to do this way quicker- it's the same in gambling as poker. The best in gambling find a way of getting on- no point spotting ricks and betting pennies

So eg I might sometimes take an SP not a price or make a bet where a bookie has a reasonable edge all in the spirit of 'playing the game' so I can get on for more than £3.56 ew later when they make a bigger rick. Give up a small edge to take a big one, makes sense.

Edit: sorry for thread derail, just interested

[horseplayer]

Dont diss the two northerners

[horseplayer]

Can see the argument they have with some arbers but they really don't help themselves.

Example Hills re opening this morning 25/1 Carlo Ancelotti when just a cursory glance at the other firms let alone betfair would have told them the price was stale. Even after they had pulled the market overnight presumably to protect them from the same thing.

[horseplayer]

Click to see full-size image.

Ever seen a more slightly under whelming caption?

[tikay]

^^^^^

Great spot John!