Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

The Buffalo Bills want the 1 or 2 pick tonight, say "sources".

They'll go Clowney if they get the first pick and have a jolly decent defensive line. Robinson if second pick (assuming Clowney goes first) to bolster the offense.

Talking about having to trade two future first round picks just to get that one player. Eggs. Basket.

 

[Marky147]

The Buffalo Bills want the 1 or 2 pick tonight, say "sources".

They'll go Clowney if they get the first pick and have a jolly decent defensive line. Robinson if second pick (assuming Clowney goes first) to bolster the offense.

Talking about having to trade two future first round picks just to get that one player. Eggs. Basket.

 

2nd pick will do them just fine.

Right after the Texans have gone Macking

[edgascoigne]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

We would have to consider it, yes, but I'd need some help from Team Maths first.

We currently have a rather large £110 @ 10/11, on UNDER 17.5.

I'm not averse, but I need to grasp the maths & Bet Sizing first. Presumably we'd need to have another £110 the other way, which would mean we win big if he middles, (or "EsoKrals" as it is known in the trade)  & break even otherwise?

Ah, didn't know u had a bet already. I thought the 16.5 on offer at Coral looked high, 17.5 even better. I wouldn't wanna back him to get more than 13 or 14 myself. Taking less free kicks and not averse to pulling up lame too, plus he's missed all of preseason so won't hit the ground running now I wouldn't think. Maybe that will pile extra pressure on too, if he goes the first few games without doing much as he gets fit, not that patient the Madrid fans

Personally, I'm with you here Jeff, very much "Unders" for the reasons you mention, but I just need to grasp the maths of it all, & how much we'd need to bet to make it work.

Ed - why do you think 15-16-17 is a lot less than a 10/1 shot? Not arguing, just curious as to the logic.

Well....there's 35 games to come.

If we assume Real's tactical approach as constant to previous seasons (a dangerous assumption, I acknowledge) and look at their previous seasons' total goals (103, 121, 102, 102, 83), we average a season's expectancy of 102.2 goals.

Multiply that by 35/38 = 94.1 goals to come, or 2.69 goals/game.

***

If we look at Bale's appearance record since becoming a boss, he played 34/38 last season, 36/38 the season before and 29/38 the year before that, for an overall expected playing rate of 86.8%

That means we could expect him to play 30.4 games for Madrid this season, which I would mitigate down ever so slightly to accommodate for the increased competition for places. He's a flagship signing so not a huge adjustment but perhaps 5% feels appropriate. ie. 28.9, call it 29 games.

***

In theory then, Bale will be on the pitch for 29*2.69 goals, or 78 goals worth.

***

Then, if we weren't already there, we're into the extremely subjective, as we come to what % of Real's goals Bale could be expected to contribute. There's no way he'll have exclusivity over set pieces, which is a pretty big deal, and you'd have to expect Ronny to account for a chunk of the team's goals - historically he's basically gone at a goal a game, meaning in Bale's 29 games there is 49 goals left to play for.

15-17 represents 30.6%-34.7% as a range of contribution to the non-Ronny goals....


... And here I basically run out of logic except to say that if one built a distribution of goal expectation I would expect to see the results fall in the described range a chunk more than 9.09% of the time.

They'd be my thoughts anyway.

Not getting bolshy but if anyone would care to lay me any 10/1 about 15-17 goals inclusive I'm all ears!!

(Theoretical) Sweats

Currently 101 goals at 2.81 goals scored per game. Bale 26 appearances (3 as a sub) with two to play.

[sonour]

NFL Draft

Is it just the 1st round tonight please ?

[Marky147]

I think it's the whole thing, but I could be mistaken.

I just want to hear those 2 magic words right off the bat

[exstream]

Where do I watch/what time?

[Kmac84]

Where do I watch/what time?

Sky Sports 1 @ Midnight.  I would assume 5live will do something also.

[TightEnd]

NFL Draft

Is it just the 1st round tonight please ?

round 1 tonight. Round 2-3 Fri. Rest Saturday.

[Bad Beat]

 Sure you've read it (written it?) Tighty, but thought you might like this...

 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

[arbboy]

Redic unlucky not to have a draw in both first two matches.  7-5 lewis when he was 2-0 down early.  Taylor draw to give us a profitable night and freerolling MVG.

[sonour]

Redic unlucky not to have a draw in both first two matches.  7-5 lewis when he was 2-0 down early.  Taylor draw to give us a profitable night and freerolling MVG.

Cheers Mark

[Tal]

Asking price for the top two seems to be too high and no one wants another RG3 situation.

Is Clowney now a bet at 2/7?

[Tal]

Any views on Mr Irrelevant?

Laddies go 20/21 defensive player, 20/21 offensive player and 9/1 specialist.

Overround much?

[arbboy]

MVG hoses up against Barney so 1 out of 3 will have to do tonight on the darts.  No vegas trips for pennies for the lucky 15 boys! ul lads.

[sonour]

Will there be any betting in play on the NFL Draft please ?

Is there any betting between rounds ?