Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Another bet you may wish to consider that I did not put money on:

Safety Car? - Yes @ 3/5 with Bwin. Saftey car is more a probability rather than a possibility in Canada, I am amazed at the 3/5 price! Would put on a good £50 bet if I wasn't limited to £10 because of my challenge.

Got stats?

The chances of a safety car at Montreal are estimated at 56% by the UBS Strategy briefing.

Seven of the last 12 Canadian Grands Prix have featured at least one safety car.

This is because, with the track lined with walls and several blind corners, there are frequent accidents and the conditions for the marshals when clearing debris from an accident are dangerous.

I personally don't think 3/5 leaves much to go at, its not a 1/4 or 1/5 job

I think it should be 1/4 or 1/5 to be honest. Given that these cars have way less downforce than in previous years, and that mechanical failures are much more common I would be incredibly surprised if the race went without a safety car.

As promised, my F1 bets for this weekend copied over from the Sky Poker Community.

Note: I've added some reasoning here seeing as you guys are more bet savvy, and also the stakes are small because my challenge over on Sky Poker is only betting £10 per race. If you wish to copy the bets and adjust the stakes, go ahead :-)

Race 7: Canada

Bet Victor
Points Finish: Daniil Kyvat @ 15/8 - £1 ... Pretty much always in the points region, plus his driving style should suit the circuit (high speed circuit, heavy breaking zones).
To Reach Qualifying Session Three: Kevin Magnussen @ EVS - £1 ... Canada will suit the Mercedes powered cars, including McLaren and Kevin, good price.
No Points Finish: Kimi Raikkonen @ 9/4 - 50p ... Ferrari engine could well struggle to cope with the high-speed nature of Canada, plus Raikkonen has been struggling with the new brake-by-wire system this season.

Stan James
Points Finish: Romain Grosjean @ 2/1 - 50p ... Bet placed more for the value than anything. Quick driver, points possible with a little luck on his side.

Sky Bet
Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 - £1 ... Pretty strong bet for reasons already discussed previously. Very consistent driver in a Mercedes powered car.
Hat Trick (Pole, Win, Fastest Lap): Lewis Hamilton @ 9/4 - £1.25 ... Another strong bet, Lewis is fantastic at this track and in the best car.

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 5/2 - £1 ... Canada is often a chaotic race but Jenson is experienced and will be able to keep his head under pressure. Mercedes Power. Good Price.

Paddy Power
Group C (Bot/Mas/But/Mag): Jenson Button @ 12/5 - 50p ... Same reasons as above.
Double Points Finish: Force India @ 11/10 - £1 ... Consistent all season, almost certain to happen if they both finish the race.
W/O Mercedes: Nico Hulkenberg @ 20/1 - 25p ... Outside chance, but fantastic price. Best price for a podium for him was 16/1 which makes no sense, value!

Bwin
Double Points Finish: McLaren @ 2/1 - £1 ... Again, Mercedes engine, two quick drivers.
Lotus Total Finishers: 1 @ 6/5 - 50p ... Their car is horrible to drive, sometimes the brakes just don't work and they run wide! Highly unlikely to both finish, but one might.
Sauber Total Finishers: 1 @ 11/10 - 50p ... Not particularly unreliable, but very slow. Gutierrez always looks unstable on track whereas Sutil is a street-style circuit specialist - only Sutil to finish from Sauber.

Total staked: £10.00
To be settled: £10.00
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0

can you give me the best two or three of these please?

please bear in mind that skybet, stan james, paddy power are off limits either for tikay or restriction reasons, so for those I would have to go elsewhere

it would be a great help for future lists if you could prioritise, help me sort through them, thanks

Top three in order:

1) Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 - £1 (Sky Bet, but the same bet can be done with Ladbrokes)
2) Hat Trick (Pole, Win, Fastest Lap): Lewis Hamilton @ 9/4 - £1.25 (Sky Bet, but 2/1 with Coral)
3) Double Points Finish: McLaren @ 2/1 - £1 (with Bwin)

I really would quite strongly recommend the safety car bet also :-)

[Peter-27]

Double post, sorry.

[horseplayer]

Peter

I think the point is what are you aware of that makes the safety car bet value at 3/5 that others arent?

[McGlashan]

Another bet you may wish to consider that I did not put money on:

Safety Car? - Yes @ 3/5 with Bwin. Saftey car is more a probability rather than a possibility in Canada, I am amazed at the 3/5 price! Would put on a good £50 bet if I wasn't limited to £10 because of my challenge.

Got stats?

The chances of a safety car at Montreal are estimated at 56% by the UBS Strategy briefing.

Seven of the last 12 Canadian Grands Prix have featured at least one safety car.

This is because, with the track lined with walls and several blind corners, there are frequent accidents and the conditions for the marshals when clearing debris from an accident are dangerous.

I personally don't think 3/5 leaves much to go at, its not a 1/4 or 1/5 job

Hi Peter it'd be great if you could divulge a little more on the safety car bet. These discussions are one of the best parts of the thread.

[horseplayer]

Sorry that looked rude and that was not my intention

I know nothing about formula one but on the stats anyone can find 3/5 looks a touch short

[TightEnd]

05/06/2014   0000617   Single (Win)   1   £ 25.00   2014 Canadian Grand Prix   Top 6 Finish   N. Hulkenberg   15/8   Pending

thats done with Ladbrokes

--

(sorry, questions)

the hat-trick. isn't the problem here that the fastest lap in any grand prix is pretty random? a car pits later, goes onto fresh tyres and with little fuel sets a lap..fastest lap two grand prixs ago was vettel, fastest lap last time out raikkonen?


mclaren double points. bouillier just isn't sounding positive. no progress etc etc, and other teams have upgrades going to canada. is 2/1 really value for two cars to get into the top 10 in that crowded midfield?

on reliability the numbers of finishers this season are 13,15,17,19,19,13 out of 22. obviously at the new tilke tracks with miles of run off like bahrain, china you get 17,19 because they aren't hitting any walls..but still with the weather not a risk this weekend, it doesn't to me indicate that a safety car is that much more likely than any other year...

whilst the cars are torque-y, and unstable at the back end there's really very little evidence that the field is less reliable, is there?

[Killerkilsby]

I think we should go with him, to be honest Mr Tightend, you talk a great game when analysing but the tips havnt done that well so far. Perhaps we should trust his tips and judge him after.

[TightEnd]

I think we should go with him, to be honest Mr Tightend, you talk a great game when analysing but the tips havnt done that well so far. Perhaps we should trust his tips and judge him after.

Very helpful. Not sure i should be held personally responsible for the thread's F1 record. part of it, for sure.

nothing wrong with a sensible debate, on anyone's tips.

[Peter-27]

Peter

I think the point is what are you aware of that makes the safety car bet value at 3/5 that others arent?

Hi Peter it'd be great if you could divulge a little more on the safety car bet. These discussions are one of the best parts of the thread.

Hmmm, I thought it was pretty well covered already, but I'm new here and not used to having to justify my bets in such depth, so let me give it another go :-)

As TightEnd said: "Seven of the last 12 Canadian Grands Prix have featured at least one safety car." I feel like I should point out that is "at least one", a lot of the races on this track have had many more than one actually. The reason for this is because the barriers are close to the track in parts, and also that service roads/marshal posts are lacking at certain corners. In the past we have seen the safety car brought out due to a mechanical failure for a car in an awkward place.

Usually, 3/5 would be a standard price, nothing particularly special about it. However this season drivers are struggling to keep the cars pointing in the right direction and they are making a lot of mistakes (example: http://i.minus.com/i5iYw8nLTbutm.gif), if this happens at Canada, in the right part of the circuit - they will go into the barriers. This is due to less downforce on the cars this season, and much more torque under acceleration. We saw this a few times at the last race in Monaco (Perez making a mistake that led to his retirement, Sutil and Gutierrez hitting the barriers, Raikkonen locking up and blocking Magnussen). This is the main reason why I believe the bookies have got the price wrong for the 2014 event. Additionally, given the new regulations for this season (specifically the new power units), we are seeing many more mechanical failures than in previous years - another reason why there is an increased chance of a safety car in comparison to other Canadian GP's.

Hope that helps! :-)

[redarmi]

Yeah also the sample size is ridiculously small given the type of bets we have had.

[Peter-27]

Sorry that looked rude and that was not my intention

I know nothing about formula one but on the stats anyone can find 3/5 looks a touch short

Not rude in the slightest! If you're going to place a bet, you need solid justification, I completely understand :-)

[tikay]

Sorry that looked rude and that was not my intention

I know nothing about formula one but on the stats anyone can find 3/5 looks a touch short

Not rude in the slightest! If you're going to place a bet, you need solid justification, I completely understand :-)

Morning Peter,

Just so you know how things are measured here, the debate is NOT about whether there will, or will not, be a Safety Car. It's about the value.

If the price is about right, then it is not a bet, even if we think it will happen.

If the price is wrong, it is a bet.
 

[Peter-27]

05/06/2014   0000617   Single (Win)   1   £ 25.00   2014 Canadian Grand Prix   Top 6 Finish   N. Hulkenberg   15/8   Pending

thats done with Ladbrokes

--

(sorry, questions)

the hat-trick. isn't the problem here that the fastest lap in any grand prix is pretty random? a car pits later, goes onto fresh tyres and with little fuel sets a lap..fastest lap two grand prixs ago was vettel, fastest lap last time out raikkonen?


mclaren double points. bouillier just isn't sounding positive. no progress etc etc, and other teams have upgrades going to canada. is 2/1 really value for two cars to get into the top 10 in that crowded midfield?

on reliability the numbers of finishers this season are 13,15,17,19,19,13 out of 22. obviously at the new tilke tracks with miles of run off like bahrain, china you get 17,19 because they aren't hitting any walls..but still with the weather not a risk this weekend, it doesn't to me indicate that a safety car is that much more likely than any other year...

whilst the cars are torque-y, and unstable at the back end there's really very little evidence that the field is less reliable, is there?

You're right that the weakest aspect of the hat-trick is the fastest lap, totally agree with that. I can see why you would think the fastest lap scenario is pretty random, however I would argue that's incorrect. Mercedes (the team) have a huge power advantage this season. As for their aero, it is lacking somewhat in comparison to the Red Bull - I don't think anybody disputes these two points. We have had six races so far this season, the first four were tracks where Mercedes power advantage overcame their aerodynamic deficit. In those four races, Mercedes had the fastest laps. As for the last two races (Spain and Monaco), aerodynamic efficiency plays a much bigger role - and while Mercedes were still quicker, the gap was reduced significantly, allowing Vettel & Raikkonen to secure fastest laps. At Canada, we're back to a power-dominated track, aerodynamic performance takes on much less significance. More power-dominated than any other track so far this season actually so I am expecting Mercedes to have a bigger margin than at any stage in 2014.

McLaren double points. Well, quite simply, I think McLaren are more likely to score double points than the 2/1 suggests. Once again it comes down to the Mercedes engine, I'm expecting all the Mercedes powered cars to easily breeze past other engined cars down the straights. They can achieve top speeds that the Renault and Ferrari engines simply can't, and in Canada with long straights, that will be a massive advantage. The only doubt in my mind is if they fail to finish the race due to some sort of incident. If they do complete the race, I would be surprised if both were not in the points. Also McLaren do have minor upgrades in Canada, even if they state otherwise, this happens a lot in F1 now-a-days. They definitely have revisions to the front wing and floor for Canada :-)

Well, if you look at the amount of cars finishing races last season in comparison to this season - there is a significant difference. At some points last season we were almost getting total reliability. It seems to me like the bookies prices are still based on that.

[Peter-27]

Sorry that looked rude and that was not my intention

I know nothing about formula one but on the stats anyone can find 3/5 looks a touch short

Not rude in the slightest! If you're going to place a bet, you need solid justification, I completely understand :-)

Morning Peter,

Just so you know how things are measured here, the debate is NOT about whether there will, or will not, be a Safety Car. It's about the value.

If the price is about right, then it is not a bet, even if we think it will happen.

If the price is wrong, it is a bet.
 

It may be morning in Vegas, but it is not in the UK #Jealous!! :-)

True, I think I justified the value pretty well above - how 3/5 would usually be a normal price, but this season it represents value.

It's your guys call anyhow, I'm just happy to be part of the community in all honesty! No bitterness whatsoever if you choose not to use my recommendation, it's only an opinion after all.

[Omm]

Ladbrokes have just gone 10-1 from 6-1 for 30 mins on England to win a match on Penalties. Can't find the market on bf or any other bookie so not sure if it's value. Any ideas?