Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Okay, I see your point.

A couple of things do make it a little better though, first of all that Lewis is 5/4 to get fastest lap with Coral, not 6/4. Also chances are that if he does get fastest lap, he will win the race and get pole too. Perhaps that doesn't make this a "good bet", but it certainly helps.

Either way, let's hope it comes off. Canada is Lewis' track, he's won 3/7 - will go up to 4/8 (or 50%) if he manages it this year, very impressive stuff! :-)

Hi Peter,

Unfortunately it doesn't make it any better that Coral go 5/4 instead of 6/4 that Lewis gets the fastest lap. We need to us the true odds which we generally take to be the Betfair odds to work this out.

Good luck

It's 5/4 on betfair also 

[Doobs]

Okay, I see your point.

A couple of things do make it a little better though, first of all that Lewis is 5/4 to get fastest lap with Coral, not 6/4. Also chances are that if he does get fastest lap, he will win the race and get pole too. Perhaps that doesn't make this a "good bet", but it certainly helps.

Either way, let's hope it comes off. Canada is Lewis' track, he's won 3/7 - will go up to 4/8 (or 50%) if he manages it this year, very impressive stuff! :-)

Hi Peter,

Unfortunately it doesn't make it any better that Coral go 5/4 instead of 6/4 that Lewis gets the fastest lap. We need to us the true odds which we generally take to be the Betfair odds to work this out.

Good luck

It's 5/4 on betfair also 

 

2.32/2.5.  Really thin market though, so a bit useless as an indicator if 6/4 is too big or not.  I had looked when I said maybe the 6/4 is good earlier.  I'd just assume that 6/4 is probably about right, 3 bookies were offering it when I looked earlier, and it feels about right without looking at the stats.

It is a good place to learn stuff here, and this is a good example of the type of bet to avoid if you aren't sure.  If you have some kind of multiple of 2 or 3 events, there is a good chance the person who put it together has a good idea of how these things compound together.  If you don't, then you are better avoiding them and sticking to stuff you understand.   I am not saying they don't mess up the compounding, because they sometimes do.  But most of the time they are designed to get you with a bigger price than you were expecting on one of the events.  You aren't the first person to put up this kind of bet, we probably get at least one a week.

Come Saturday somebody will offer you 7/2 or so that Australia wins the Derby by 3 lengths or similar.  Without even seeing the offer, I'd be pretty confident that just taking the best price on Australia is going to be a better but.  But the offer isn't designed for me, it is for those whose brains tell them 7/2 has got to be better value than 7/4.

[arbboy]

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400559374

Spurs take a 1-0 lead in nba.  Very balanced team performance as expected from the spurs.  Duncan 21 points 10 rebounds 3 assists on 9-10 shooting was probably the game 1 MVP.  Parker 19 points 8 assists and Manu 16 points 11 assists and 5 rebounds both close behind.  On that performance Manu has a real shot at the MVP so the 60/1 any other player is very much alive.

It was a freaky game in that the air conditioning broke and they were playing in 90 degree heat and Lebron cramped really badly in the last qtr and had to sit out the last 8 minutes which allowed the Spurs to pull away to a much easier than it actually was 15 point win.

Game 2 Sunday night at midnight in SA.

[horseplayer]

Chile are the side i am most confident of knowing about for the World Cup so as such i am going to suggest some bets related to them.

One thing that is well known is that Chile under Sampaoli will play the same way they have under Bielsa and now Jorge keeping the same style of play for nearly ten years must be an advantage.

"We will not change how we play. We will not be modified by our opponents.We have to want it more, to surpass them in spirit."

The first bet i really like is in the Top Chilean Goalscorer market.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/chile/top-goalscorer

As the market suggests this is down to the top three in the market. Vidal is a world class midfielder who was joint top scorer in qualifying, however with an injury doubt is passed over at a best price of 6/1.

Sanchez is the favourite which is hard to argue with. I have noticed in the last few friendlies (including last night v Northern Ireland) he is dropping a bit deeper and has been supplying the goals for the man i have backed in this market.

Eduardo Vargas has so far been a bit of an enigma at club level. Despite doing well in Europe for Napoli he didn't score in Serie A and was loaned to Valencia where he was no more than ok. He looks a different player for Chile with the high pressing style being ideal for his game. He joint top scored in qualifying with Vidal has 4 goals in the last 4 friendlies played and looks certain to start the tournament upfront.

BET SUGGESTION £20 WIN E VARGAS BET EVERYDAY OF THE YEAR 9/2 (4/1 OK)

Despite Fred already having a few bets on the top scorer market i will also suggest a further £10 investment on Vargas on Betfair at 130/1 to see if we get matched.

BET SUGGESTION £10 WIN E VARGAS BETFAIR ORDER AT 130/1 (will be unmatched for now)




One thing i very much disagreed with in the otherwise good Racing Post Pullout yesterday was the assertion that Chile could get away with their defence like Spain did four years ago...

Jara (ended the season on the Nottingham Forest bench), Gary Medel (a defensive midfielder though he has played well for Chile at the back) and Marcos Gonzalez will make up the defence if its a back three which is most likely.

Gonzalez has not played a club game for nearly a year after Flamengo decided he was now their 5th choice centre back. Although all three have raised the game for Chile before there is no way you can view that back three as anything but a massive worry.

As results have shown for a long time now especially against the better sides the only way for Chile to address this is to press in the opponents half. Other than Spain no other international side really employs this tactics and as such it makes them hard to predict.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/chile/total-goals

Rather than backing Chile to qualify from the toughish group i like the Over 4.5 Total Tournament Goals at 20/19 with 888 here.

If Chile qualify i would be confident they would be on five goals by the second round stage. This bet gives a bit of insurance, even if they dont then they still have a fair chance of hitting 3+ versus Aus and i would be confident of at least 1 versus Spain and the Dutch.

BET SUGGESTION £30 20/19 888SPORT CHILE OVER 4.5 TOTAL GOALS TOURNAMENT.


They are the sort of side who could be One down to Australia in the first game at half time and win 4-1 or just as equally race into a two goal lead against the Dutch only to end up with a point or even less.

Either way they are the side i cant wait to watch again in this World Cup.





 

[horseplayer]

Nicked from Twitter

Adam Pope @APOPEY  ·  5m
#lufc I understand that club legend Gary McAllister is one of the 3 British coaches to be interviewed by Massimo Cellino for the Leeds job.

The author works for 5live and is generally a good judge

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/leeds/next-permanent-manager

suggest £10 with hills at 50/1

why not

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/chile/total-goals

I Don't have access to 888 or Unibet

doesn't look like there is a similar bet unfortunately looking at who is making prices on this one

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £277.67

Outstanding Bets £3090.20

Free bets to use £25 Betfred

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=25

- A profit of £40 yesterday, with the Conservatives winning the Newark by-election (backed at 4/9 went off a lot shorter) retaining the seat with a majority of more than 7,000. Candidate Robert Jenrick polled 17,431 votes, beating UKIP's Roger Helmer, who finished second with 10,028 votes. Labour's Michael Payne came third with 6,842 votes but it was a disastrous result for the Lib Dems, who were beaten into sixth place and lost their deposit as advised yesterday

These two can head home now

Click to see full-size image.

in longer term positions

- Spurs 105 Heat 90 in game 1 of the NBA finals as described by arbboy above. With all our positions bar the LeBron James MVP bet skewed towards the Spurs winning the title, a good start. Our 60-1 MVP shot Manu Ginobli pictured below

Click to see full-size image.

- In cricket only one of our players in action yesteday, Ned Eckerlsey of Leics getting another start and not going on, out for 34

- baseball, the Royals won but the Yankee win/Oriole loss in the AL East was unwelcome

- Danny Care, the excellent scrum half has been ruled out of the Auckland test tomorrow for England

" England assistant coach Andy Farrell said he "burst out laughing" when Care fell in training, only later realising the severity of the injury.

"It was Danny's own fault," Farrell said. "It was a rubbish kick. He stubbed his foot on the floor and missed the ball completely.

"He fell over and hurt his shoulder. It was absolutely hilarious. I've got it on tape. I showed it to all the lads the next day.

"But it wasn't quite as good two days later when he wasn't playing in the Test match."



today

Canadian grand prix practice

French Open mens semi's. Might be as high octane as the ladies yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

T20 Cricket programme tonight

The Oaks, ground changed overnight to good after a dry night

[horseplayer]

Good work Tal with the conservatives bet

[TightEnd]

Chile

Eduardo Vargas
Chile Team Top Goalscorer

£20 at 4-1 Betfair sportsbook

B365 was 7/2 when i got there

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000034


 Waiting (unmatched)
At In-PlayCancelKeep
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
2014 FIFA World Cup
Eduardo Vargas Top Goalscorer    130    £10.00    
£1,290.00
Ref: 38009895962 Submitted: 08:56 06-Jun-14

chile goals - unplaced as above.

[horseplayer]

Ok 4/1 is fine

Hopefully someone can help with aye aye aye bet

[horseplayer]

Hills 9/2 Gary M!

Lol

[TightEnd]

Nicked from Twitter

Adam Pope @APOPEY  ·  5m
#lufc I understand that club legend Gary McAllister is one of the 3 British coaches to be interviewed by Massimo Cellino for the Leeds job.

The author works for 5live and is generally a good judge

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/leeds/next-permanent-manager

suggest £10 with hills at 50/1

why not

Showing 9/2 at Hills

14/1 BV if we want it?

[horseplayer]

Nicked from Twitter

Adam Pope @APOPEY  ·  5m
#lufc I understand that club legend Gary McAllister is one of the 3 British coaches to be interviewed by Massimo Cellino for the Leeds job.

The author works for 5live and is generally a good judge

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/leeds/next-permanent-manager

suggest £10 with hills at 50/1

why not

Showing 9/2 at Hills

14/1 BV if we want it?

Think 14's is hard to take tbh

Literally only posted as it appears he has an interview which is obviously a plus no view on it

[TightEnd]

No problem

I am offline most of the day, hoping to be home late afternoon

if anyone has anything for Epsom, possibly, or anything else please advise by mid morning, or else it will have to wait for tikay or Ito see it

thanks

[TightEnd]

If anyone has 888 or Unibet and wants to help out with £30 20/19 CHILE OVER 4.5 TOTAL GOALS TOURNAMENT then please post

if not, no problem either. if you don't ask....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/chile/total-goals