Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Sorry that looked rude and that was not my intention

I know nothing about formula one but on the stats anyone can find 3/5 looks a touch short

Not rude in the slightest! If you're going to place a bet, you need solid justification, I completely understand :-)

Morning Peter,

Just so you know how things are measured here, the debate is NOT about whether there will, or will not, be a Safety Car. It's about the value.

If the price is about right, then it is not a bet, even if we think it will happen.

If the price is wrong, it is a bet.
 

It may be morning in Vegas, but it is not in the UK #Jealous!! :-)

True, I think I justified the value pretty well above - how 3/5 would usually be a normal price, but this season it represents value.

It's your guys call anyhow, I'm just happy to be part of the community in all honesty! No bitterness whatsoever if you choose not to use my recommendation, it's only an opinion after all.

It's great to have your views & input, Peter, it's all about opinions.

[Marky147]

Ladbrokes have just gone 10-1 from 6-1 for 30 mins on England to win a match on Penalties. Can't find the market on bf or any other bookie so not sure if it's value. Any ideas?

Let us know if they go 33/1 at all

[Omm]

Ladbrokes have just gone 10-1 from 6-1 for 30 mins on England to win a match on Penalties. Can't find the market on bf or any other bookie so not sure if it's value. Any ideas?

Let us know if they go 33/1 at all

Haha, straight to the point Marky, always knew Laddies were tightarses'

[BigAdz]

We do harp on about stats/sample size here a lot, which is great if we live forever and variance gets to do his proper job. The reality is that to get to a workable sample size, so many hundreds of factors have changed in between times, thus rendering the basis of the sample invalid, does it not?

If these sports were going on in a vacuum where the rules didnt change, nor the participants/weather/machines/equipment/venues etc I could put more stock in it...but they don't, so half these "sample sizes" are made up of random data anyway.

Bad day at work, so feel free, I'm ready.

[TightEnd]

05/06/2014   0000617   Single (Win)   1   £ 25.00   2014 Canadian Grand Prix   Top 6 Finish   N. Hulkenberg   15/8   Pending

thats done with Ladbrokes

--

(sorry, questions)

the hat-trick. isn't the problem here that the fastest lap in any grand prix is pretty random? a car pits later, goes onto fresh tyres and with little fuel sets a lap..fastest lap two grand prixs ago was vettel, fastest lap last time out raikkonen?


mclaren double points. bouillier just isn't sounding positive. no progress etc etc, and other teams have upgrades going to canada. is 2/1 really value for two cars to get into the top 10 in that crowded midfield?

on reliability the numbers of finishers this season are 13,15,17,19,19,13 out of 22. obviously at the new tilke tracks with miles of run off like bahrain, china you get 17,19 because they aren't hitting any walls..but still with the weather not a risk this weekend, it doesn't to me indicate that a safety car is that much more likely than any other year...

whilst the cars are torque-y, and unstable at the back end there's really very little evidence that the field is less reliable, is there?

You're right that the weakest aspect of the hat-trick is the fastest lap, totally agree with that. I can see why you would think the fastest lap scenario is pretty random, however I would argue that's incorrect. Mercedes (the team) have a huge power advantage this season. As for their aero, it is lacking somewhat in comparison to the Red Bull - I don't think anybody disputes these two points. We have had six races so far this season, the first four were tracks where Mercedes power advantage overcame their aerodynamic deficit. In those four races, Mercedes had the fastest laps. As for the last two races (Spain and Monaco), aerodynamic efficiency plays a much bigger role - and while Mercedes were still quicker, the gap was reduced significantly, allowing Vettel & Raikkonen to secure fastest laps. At Canada, we're back to a power-dominated track, aerodynamic performance takes on much less significance. More power-dominated than any other track so far this season actually so I am expecting Mercedes to have a bigger margin than at any stage in 2014.

McLaren double points. Well, quite simply, I think McLaren are more likely to score double points than the 2/1 suggests. Once again it comes down to the Mercedes engine, I'm expecting all the Mercedes powered cars to easily breeze past other engined cars down the straights. They can achieve top speeds that the Renault and Ferrari engines simply can't, and in Canada with long straights, that will be a massive advantage. The only doubt in my mind is if they fail to finish the race due to some sort of incident. If they do complete the race, I would be surprised if both were not in the points. Also McLaren do have minor upgrades in Canada, even if they state otherwise, this happens a lot in F1 now-a-days. They definitely have revisions to the front wing and floor for Canada :-)

Well, if you look at the amount of cars finishing races last season in comparison to this season - there is a significant difference. At some points last season we were almost getting total reliability. It seems to me like the bookies prices are still based on that.

thanks

6/5/2014 8:57 PM bwin Single bet  GP Canada - Race (Will both drivers of any team record points in the race?)   McLaren   20.00 3.00

coral

Lewis Hamilton2/1
King of the Road - 08/06/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£60.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £60.00

[Peter-27]

No problem!

A little nervous now (eek!), don't want to be the reason anyone loses money - but I'm still confident nevertheless

[Doobs]

05/06/2014   0000617   Single (Win)   1   £ 25.00   2014 Canadian Grand Prix   Top 6 Finish   N. Hulkenberg   15/8   Pending

thats done with Ladbrokes

--

(sorry, questions)

the hat-trick. isn't the problem here that the fastest lap in any grand prix is pretty random? a car pits later, goes onto fresh tyres and with little fuel sets a lap..fastest lap two grand prixs ago was vettel, fastest lap last time out raikkonen?


mclaren double points. bouillier just isn't sounding positive. no progress etc etc, and other teams have upgrades going to canada. is 2/1 really value for two cars to get into the top 10 in that crowded midfield?

on reliability the numbers of finishers this season are 13,15,17,19,19,13 out of 22. obviously at the new tilke tracks with miles of run off like bahrain, china you get 17,19 because they aren't hitting any walls..but still with the weather not a risk this weekend, it doesn't to me indicate that a safety car is that much more likely than any other year...

whilst the cars are torque-y, and unstable at the back end there's really very little evidence that the field is less reliable, is there?

You're right that the weakest aspect of the hat-trick is the fastest lap, totally agree with that. I can see why you would think the fastest lap scenario is pretty random, however I would argue that's incorrect. Mercedes (the team) have a huge power advantage this season. As for their aero, it is lacking somewhat in comparison to the Red Bull - I don't think anybody disputes these two points. We have had six races so far this season, the first four were tracks where Mercedes power advantage overcame their aerodynamic deficit. In those four races, Mercedes had the fastest laps. As for the last two races (Spain and Monaco), aerodynamic efficiency plays a much bigger role - and while Mercedes were still quicker, the gap was reduced significantly, allowing Vettel & Raikkonen to secure fastest laps. At Canada, we're back to a power-dominated track, aerodynamic performance takes on much less significance. More power-dominated than any other track so far this season actually so I am expecting Mercedes to have a bigger margin than at any stage in 2014.

McLaren double points. Well, quite simply, I think McLaren are more likely to score double points than the 2/1 suggests. Once again it comes down to the Mercedes engine, I'm expecting all the Mercedes powered cars to easily breeze past other engined cars down the straights. They can achieve top speeds that the Renault and Ferrari engines simply can't, and in Canada with long straights, that will be a massive advantage. The only doubt in my mind is if they fail to finish the race due to some sort of incident. If they do complete the race, I would be surprised if both were not in the points. Also McLaren do have minor upgrades in Canada, even if they state otherwise, this happens a lot in F1 now-a-days. They definitely have revisions to the front wing and floor for Canada :-)

Well, if you look at the amount of cars finishing races last season in comparison to this season - there is a significant difference. At some points last season we were almost getting total reliability. It seems to me like the bookies prices are still based on that.

thanks

6/5/2014 8:57 PM bwin Single bet  GP Canada - Race (Will both drivers of any team record points in the race?)   McLaren   20.00 3.00

coral

Lewis Hamilton2/1
King of the Road - 08/06/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£60.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £60.00

This looks a terrible bet.  When faced with a bet like this you need to break it down in to its constituent parts.  We got that the fastest lap was the hardest part, and we can check the odds of that which are 6/4.  From that we can calculate we are betting that if Hamilton gets fastest lap, we are backing 1/5 that he also gets pole and wins the race.  These things are clearly related, but I'd happily lay that 1/5 for thousands.

It is entirely possible that the 6/4 he gets fastest lap is a bad price, if so that is the bet we should be taking and not the treble.

Somebody made an unfair dig at Tighty earlier.  His bets are usually very well thought out, and the Monaco ones were very good, despite them losing.  We have a bad record now from F1, not because we are currently terrible, but because we were at the start.  I don't think we needed to fix anything right now, we just needed to carry on avoiding the bad bets we were prone to in the beginning.

[Peter-27]

05/06/2014   0000617   Single (Win)   1   £ 25.00   2014 Canadian Grand Prix   Top 6 Finish   N. Hulkenberg   15/8   Pending

thats done with Ladbrokes

--

(sorry, questions)

the hat-trick. isn't the problem here that the fastest lap in any grand prix is pretty random? a car pits later, goes onto fresh tyres and with little fuel sets a lap..fastest lap two grand prixs ago was vettel, fastest lap last time out raikkonen?


mclaren double points. bouillier just isn't sounding positive. no progress etc etc, and other teams have upgrades going to canada. is 2/1 really value for two cars to get into the top 10 in that crowded midfield?

on reliability the numbers of finishers this season are 13,15,17,19,19,13 out of 22. obviously at the new tilke tracks with miles of run off like bahrain, china you get 17,19 because they aren't hitting any walls..but still with the weather not a risk this weekend, it doesn't to me indicate that a safety car is that much more likely than any other year...

whilst the cars are torque-y, and unstable at the back end there's really very little evidence that the field is less reliable, is there?

You're right that the weakest aspect of the hat-trick is the fastest lap, totally agree with that. I can see why you would think the fastest lap scenario is pretty random, however I would argue that's incorrect. Mercedes (the team) have a huge power advantage this season. As for their aero, it is lacking somewhat in comparison to the Red Bull - I don't think anybody disputes these two points. We have had six races so far this season, the first four were tracks where Mercedes power advantage overcame their aerodynamic deficit. In those four races, Mercedes had the fastest laps. As for the last two races (Spain and Monaco), aerodynamic efficiency plays a much bigger role - and while Mercedes were still quicker, the gap was reduced significantly, allowing Vettel & Raikkonen to secure fastest laps. At Canada, we're back to a power-dominated track, aerodynamic performance takes on much less significance. More power-dominated than any other track so far this season actually so I am expecting Mercedes to have a bigger margin than at any stage in 2014.

McLaren double points. Well, quite simply, I think McLaren are more likely to score double points than the 2/1 suggests. Once again it comes down to the Mercedes engine, I'm expecting all the Mercedes powered cars to easily breeze past other engined cars down the straights. They can achieve top speeds that the Renault and Ferrari engines simply can't, and in Canada with long straights, that will be a massive advantage. The only doubt in my mind is if they fail to finish the race due to some sort of incident. If they do complete the race, I would be surprised if both were not in the points. Also McLaren do have minor upgrades in Canada, even if they state otherwise, this happens a lot in F1 now-a-days. They definitely have revisions to the front wing and floor for Canada :-)

Well, if you look at the amount of cars finishing races last season in comparison to this season - there is a significant difference. At some points last season we were almost getting total reliability. It seems to me like the bookies prices are still based on that.

thanks

6/5/2014 8:57 PM bwin Single bet  GP Canada - Race (Will both drivers of any team record points in the race?)   McLaren   20.00 3.00

coral

Lewis Hamilton2/1
King of the Road - 08/06/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£60.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £60.00

This looks a terrible bet.  When faced with a bet like this you need to break it down in to its constituent parts.  We got that the fastest lap was the hardest part, and we can check the odds of that which are 6/4.  From that we can calculate we are betting that if Hamilton gets fastest lap, we are backing 1/5 that he also gets pole and wins the race.  These things are clearly related, but I'd happily lay that 1/5 for thousands.

It is entirely possible that the 6/4 he gets fastest lap is a bad price, if so that is the bet we should be taking and not the treble.

Somebody made an unfair dig at Tighty earlier.  His bets are usually very well thought out, and the Monaco ones were very good, despite them losing.  We have a bad record now from F1, not because we are currently terrible, but because we were at the start.  I don't think we needed to fix anything right now, we just needed to carry on avoiding the bad bets we were prone to in the beginning.

I was with you until the point in bold.  6/4 is a bad price for fastest lap, should be smaller than that really - they've left value there. But why would you not take the treble rather than the FL single?

[Doobs]

05/06/2014   0000617   Single (Win)   1   £ 25.00   2014 Canadian Grand Prix   Top 6 Finish   N. Hulkenberg   15/8   Pending

thats done with Ladbrokes

--

(sorry, questions)

the hat-trick. isn't the problem here that the fastest lap in any grand prix is pretty random? a car pits later, goes onto fresh tyres and with little fuel sets a lap..fastest lap two grand prixs ago was vettel, fastest lap last time out raikkonen?


mclaren double points. bouillier just isn't sounding positive. no progress etc etc, and other teams have upgrades going to canada. is 2/1 really value for two cars to get into the top 10 in that crowded midfield?

on reliability the numbers of finishers this season are 13,15,17,19,19,13 out of 22. obviously at the new tilke tracks with miles of run off like bahrain, china you get 17,19 because they aren't hitting any walls..but still with the weather not a risk this weekend, it doesn't to me indicate that a safety car is that much more likely than any other year...

whilst the cars are torque-y, and unstable at the back end there's really very little evidence that the field is less reliable, is there?

You're right that the weakest aspect of the hat-trick is the fastest lap, totally agree with that. I can see why you would think the fastest lap scenario is pretty random, however I would argue that's incorrect. Mercedes (the team) have a huge power advantage this season. As for their aero, it is lacking somewhat in comparison to the Red Bull - I don't think anybody disputes these two points. We have had six races so far this season, the first four were tracks where Mercedes power advantage overcame their aerodynamic deficit. In those four races, Mercedes had the fastest laps. As for the last two races (Spain and Monaco), aerodynamic efficiency plays a much bigger role - and while Mercedes were still quicker, the gap was reduced significantly, allowing Vettel & Raikkonen to secure fastest laps. At Canada, we're back to a power-dominated track, aerodynamic performance takes on much less significance. More power-dominated than any other track so far this season actually so I am expecting Mercedes to have a bigger margin than at any stage in 2014.

McLaren double points. Well, quite simply, I think McLaren are more likely to score double points than the 2/1 suggests. Once again it comes down to the Mercedes engine, I'm expecting all the Mercedes powered cars to easily breeze past other engined cars down the straights. They can achieve top speeds that the Renault and Ferrari engines simply can't, and in Canada with long straights, that will be a massive advantage. The only doubt in my mind is if they fail to finish the race due to some sort of incident. If they do complete the race, I would be surprised if both were not in the points. Also McLaren do have minor upgrades in Canada, even if they state otherwise, this happens a lot in F1 now-a-days. They definitely have revisions to the front wing and floor for Canada :-)

Well, if you look at the amount of cars finishing races last season in comparison to this season - there is a significant difference. At some points last season we were almost getting total reliability. It seems to me like the bookies prices are still based on that.

thanks

6/5/2014 8:57 PM bwin Single bet  GP Canada - Race (Will both drivers of any team record points in the race?)   McLaren   20.00 3.00

coral

Lewis Hamilton2/1
King of the Road - 08/06/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£60.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £60.00

This looks a terrible bet.  When faced with a bet like this you need to break it down in to its constituent parts.  We got that the fastest lap was the hardest part, and we can check the odds of that which are 6/4.  From that we can calculate we are betting that if Hamilton gets fastest lap, we are backing 1/5 that he also gets pole and wins the race.  These things are clearly related, but I'd happily lay that 1/5 for thousands.

It is entirely possible that the 6/4 he gets fastest lap is a bad price, if so that is the bet we should be taking and not the treble.

Somebody made an unfair dig at Tighty earlier.  His bets are usually very well thought out, and the Monaco ones were very good, despite them losing.  We have a bad record now from F1, not because we are currently terrible, but because we were at the start.  I don't think we needed to fix anything right now, we just needed to carry on avoiding the bad bets we were prone to in the beginning.

I was with you until the point in bold.  6/4 is a bad price for fastest lap, should be smaller than that really - they've left value there. But why would you not take the treble rather than the FL single?

Because 1/5 is terrible for him to also get pole and win the race if he gets fastest lap.  It is not just a little terrible, it is massively terrible.  You might not realise you are taking 1/5, but you really are.

[arbboy]

3.0/2.5 = 1.2

2/1 divided by 6/4 = 1/5

It's a double and the 6/4 is one part of the double.  The other part is the balancing figure shown in the equation.

[Doobs]

3.0/2.5 = 1.2

2/1 divided by 6/4 = 1/5

It's a double and the 6/4 is one part of the double.  The other part is the balancing figure shown in the equation.

and it isn't 1/5 he does one of them, it is 1/5 he both wins and gets pole.

[arbboy]

i know that doobs. I was just trying to illustrate the maths for Peter.  The 1/5 is a double in itself Peter for him to get Pole and Win.  I know nothing about F1 but that is a truely awful price.

[redarmi]

Another thing to bear in mind is that the fastest lap and race winner are probably negatively correlated because when they get ahead (and if they start on pole there is a chance that they are there the whole race) then they don't neccesarily push the car to its limits where as the cars chasing them have to take risks so even if 1/5 was the 'right' price it probably isn't if that makes sense.

[Peter-27]

Okay, I see your point.

A couple of things do make it a little better though, first of all that Lewis is 5/4 to get fastest lap with Coral, not 6/4. Also chances are that if he does get fastest lap, he will win the race and get pole too. Perhaps that doesn't make this a "good bet", but it certainly helps.

Either way, let's hope it comes off. Canada is Lewis' track, he's won 3/7 - will go up to 4/8 (or 50%) if he manages it this year, very impressive stuff! :-)

[sonour]

Okay, I see your point.

A couple of things do make it a little better though, first of all that Lewis is 5/4 to get fastest lap with Coral, not 6/4. Also chances are that if he does get fastest lap, he will win the race and get pole too. Perhaps that doesn't make this a "good bet", but it certainly helps.

Either way, let's hope it comes off. Canada is Lewis' track, he's won 3/7 - will go up to 4/8 (or 50%) if he manages it this year, very impressive stuff! :-)

Hi Peter,

Unfortunately it doesn't make it any better that Coral go 5/4 instead of 6/4 that Lewis gets the fastest lap. We need to us the true odds which we generally take to be the Betfair odds to work this out.

Good luck