Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Tights lay of the tournamen, Spain, are out

I'll try again.

Tighty's lay of the tournament, Spain, are out.

Don't tell me that you had Pete lumping on @ 1/8.

Notwithstanding it was a decent shout by his tightness.

He's been very busy today. The 3.45 at Ascot was very very good each way on 5 of the 8 runners.

PP were analysing handwriting on the betting slips but they did accept his bets in the end.

took some very big each way bets in the shops on that race, totally different to their online operation.

I would be interested to see the final Betfair odds on the 3.45.  I was trying to prepare dinner and had my 2 year old to entertain about then.  When I looked at Mukhadram at 11/2, and said I am not sure if it was value.  I think the Betfair odds were about 8/1 on the win and I didn't see the place.  In that case you'd be taking a big hit on the win odds that may not have been made up by the place odds.  If I was to make a guess now I'd say backing each way at 11/2 was more likely to be bad value than not  vs Betfair.  That was very different to when I looked at the 13/2 overnight.

I think it would be useful to get those Betfair numbers just so I can check if we get value in situations like this for next time.  Can anybody access these, Arbboy? Doubleup?

Edit.  I meant to add that even if it was marginally good, it may be bad to take a bet like this because it could be perceived as dirty, so we may get a black mark for a bet that was barely profitable.  The balance was probably better at 13/2.

Closing Betfair sp for the 3.45. 101%

The Fugue 8  place 1.82
Magician 9.52  and 2.01
Treve 1.65 and 1.12
Mukhadram 9 and 1.9
Dank 18.5 and 2.7
Parish Hall 110 and 7.43
Zambucca 991.33 and 55
Elkaayed 397.2 and 21

[TightEnd]

norfolk

PP 1/4 E/W 1,2,3

Single: Mukhmal @ 5/1
2 lines at £6.06 per line
Total stake for this bet: £12.12
Potential returns: £49.99
No: O/23146337/0000475

Bet365 1/4 1,2,3

Mukhmal at 5-1 £10 ew
Baitha Alga £6.25 ew 8/1
To be determined £5.56 ew 9/1

Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3

Baitha Aga £10 e/w 15/2
to be deterrmined £5 e/w 8/1



thats about all i can do without taking a whack at uncompetitive prices, or 1/5 the odds

ideally when tikay is back we can open up 888, which will help

[Doobs]

we should be looking to back the 2nd/3rd/4th favs in the 230 ascot blind at top price 1/4 ew

Arbboy speaks sense.  

Will have to spread it round bookies.  But back Mukhmal at 5/1, Baitha Alga at 8/1 and Tp Be Determined at 9/1  get quarter first 3 and you will do fine.  

Unfortunately I think thread is going to be limited to sportingvet.  Suggest 25 e/w Mukhmal 5/1 and To Be Determined at 9/1 with Sporting.  If somebody could match beteveryday for thread on Baitha Alga that would be good.

sbet restrict mukmal and to be determined to 2 e/w

william hill is 15/5 1,2,3

can't go to bet365, boyle, ppower, unibet, 888


best prices i am likely to get paying 1/4 are

mukhmal 9/2
baitha 8/1 maybe 7/1
to be determined 8/1

please advise

wow, we are 10% at sportingbet too now.

Just having a look at the 2nd race, there are a few good each way ones in that too.  Wouldn't put you off somewhat if we can get quarter first 4.  I'll second it if you need it.

FWIW I got more than a tenner each way with paddies on one in the Norfolk.  I am normally badly restricted.  Try them for the Norfolk

The 2nd race is as good as the first.  I like Mutakayyef most at e/w (11/2 in lots of places), Obliterator is still ok at the general 6/1 each way, and Cloudscape (b365, and Is Vic There?).  Think we can get all of these and Tighty's tip Somewhat is good.  

So go £30 e/w Mutakayef 11/2 with BF SB, 15 e/w Obliterator 6/1 Baldfred/nanny and Cloudscape 10/1 ew with Is Vic there? Somewhat has to be PP or b365, so dare say you might struggle for 15 e/w.

[TightEnd]

we should be looking to back the 2nd/3rd/4th favs in the 230 ascot blind at top price 1/4 ew

Arbboy speaks sense. 

Will have to spread it round bookies.  But back Mukhmal at 5/1, Baitha Alga at 8/1 and Tp Be Determined at 9/1  get quarter first 3 and you will do fine. 

Unfortunately I think thread is going to be limited to sportingvet.  Suggest 25 e/w Mukhmal 5/1 and To Be Determined at 9/1 with Sporting.  If somebody could match beteveryday for thread on Baitha Alga that would be good.

sbet restrict mukmal and to be determined to 2 e/w

william hill is 15/5 1,2,3

can't go to bet365, boyle, ppower, unibet, 888


best prices i am likely to get paying 1/4 are

mukhmal 9/2
baitha 8/1 maybe 7/1
to be determined 8/1

please advise

wow, we are 10% at sportingbet too now.

Just having a look at the 2nd race, there are a few good each way ones in that too.  Wouldn't put you off somewhat if we can get quarter first 4.  I'll second it if you need it.

FWIW I got more than a tenner each way with paddies on one in the Norfolk.  I am normally badly restricted.  Try them for the Norfolk

The 2nd race is as good as the first.  I like Mutakayyef most at e/w (11/2 in lots of places), Obliterator is still ok at the general 6/1 each way, and Cloudscape (b365, and Is Vic There?).  Think we can get all of these and Tighty's tip Somewhat is good. 

So go £30 e/w Mutakayef 11/2 with BF SB, 15 e/w Obliterator 6/1 Baldfred/nanny and Cloudscape 10/1 ew with Is Vic there? Somewhat has to be PP or b365, so dare say you might struggle for 15 e/w.

mutakeyef £30 e/w 11/2 BFSB 1/4 1,2,3
Obliterator £15 e/w 6/1 betfred 1/4 1,2,3
cloudscape £10 e/w 10/1 vic 1/4 1,2,3
somewhat £3.57 e/w 14/1 b365 1/4 1,2,3



the rest of you can back barley mow, nailed on winner now

[Doobs]

I like the favourite a lot in the Ribblesdale so have added some more at 3/1.

I like TightEnd's Altano a lot in the Gold Cup.  The race is a good each way one, it is German, so unlikely to be too short, and has won a Group 1 at the distance (more or less).  Everything I would want in a horse here.  I like Leading Light a lot, but this is such a good bet.  Suggest £30 e/w at 14/1 wherever we can.

Edit.  Sent PM

[TightEnd]

Altano. 14/1 only at pp, bet365, spoilsports

not ideal

doobs has given us £10 e/w at 14-1

and i did

Single: Altano @ 14/1
2 lines at £7.20 per line
Total stake for this bet: £14.40
Potential returns: £140.40
No: O/23146337/0000476


so £17.20 e/w, which is enough to help if it kops

[Bad Beat]

 Beware in the Gold Cup...

 Unless it pisses it down they will pull out Tac de Boistron. Corals who are doing 1234 on the race have the horse at 9/1 a scummy dirty plan to get a bigger Rule 4 when the horse is 14/1 on the machine.

 Hold your bets.

[Acidmouse]

Click to see full-size image.

done deal...2 year contract. Leeds fans in shock...

New coach looks like hes won the lottery.

[TightEnd]

i think that just leaves the handicaps at the the end

pray for tighty.

how to wipe out a morning, courtesy of tft.

[horseplayer]

The German thing is a solid horse in that it is one of only 4 in the race that are certain to stay

If there is an element of soft in the ground it would be a great bet (but it would be about 8/1 tbf)

If you fancy it as a win bet be much better backing it in running will be outpaced on this ground i expect the fact it stays mean it could still just nab a place even on this ground

[horseplayer]

Click to see full-size image.

done deal...2 year contract. Leeds fans in shock...

New coach looks like hes won the lottery.

Junior Lewis the man who only got a transfer and then coaching role when Peter Taylor had a job is his assistant...

Jesus wept

[TightEnd]

Junior Lewis

the worst player, amongst many candidates, i have ever seen play for Leiceser

signed by taylor, then followed him around various coaching jobs on retirement

[Doobs]

Am getting a bit weary myself, backed draws 30 and 31 in the Britannia all each way.  I am not going to put them up for thread.   Will probably just stick to BE from now on, so have nothing more for thread.

You can stand down Tighty, doing a grand job.

[TightEnd]

Please lay back some more Hughesy. Another £80 @ 3 ta.

This was matched

So the overall situation is

Hughes £200 at 7/2 backed

then

£51.97 laid back at 2.76, liability £92
£80 laid back at 3.0, liability £160

Listen Junior £25 at 10-1

[TightEnd]

an extra £5 e/w placed on somewhat 14-1, c/o doobs


right, watching brief, got things to catch up on

will check back in case anything comes up

world cup offers?