Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I know we should look to avoid overs and avoid multiples...

Over 2.5 goals and over 6 cards: 14/1

Would hesitate if Van Gaal picks De Guzman and changes the shape of the team. Costa Rica will be playing through the inside channels if the Dutch line up as they have. We want open football, obviously.

[Tonji]

best timed selfie of the day!

[tikay]

Bit late to mention it I know but just catching up. At 1/5th odds 123 the Eclipse is not a very good race to have each-way bets in. It's pretty competitive and 11 runners is a bad number. With 9 or 10 it would be much better on the maths (obviously 8 is best if they were all 10000% certain to run). Some firms offer 1/4 in this one but you went with BMU (hate them so much) who are 1/5th.

 Visored 1st time horses (like True Story) are kind of bad for each-way generally. The trainer often reaches for blinkers/visor when they run out of ideas because the horse needs "waking-up" or it's inconsistent and it can go both ways with the horse sometimes resenting this. The blinkers/visor will usually make the horse run very fast early, (they are scared, as a herding animal they want to run with the others but they can only see straight ahead so they run fast), this often means they fade late...the nut worst kind of ew bet.

 As an extra point on the Eclipse the rain is not anything as much as expected and unless there is loads more between now and 3.50 I can't see it having an effect. Kingston Hill was backed from 11/2 into 9/2 because of Pricewise (who anticipated rain) and people anticipating or actually experiencing rain. The fact that it's 6.8 again and the sun is out should tell you a lot.

 I bet Verrazano on Wednesday at 5/1 and I feel like I've lost already. The horse is not a certain stayer and soft ground would be a neg but I do think it was pretty amazing on it's day in the States and it's Ascot form is not as bad as some seem to think. Maybe with the ground looking more like G/F I should get excited again and go back in at 8/1.

 Trading Leather and Mukhadram are fair shouts with no rain at 16/1.

Fascinating, I love to read read that sort of stuff, thanks Neil.

[tikay]

If thread wants a tenner each way on each of 16/1 Mukhadram e/w and Trading Leather (18/1) let me know.  Both are quarter the odds.  I can see thread can't get on with the quarter odds firms.  Think we are down to 10 runners and maybe we lose Kingston Hill which won't be a bad result.  

Do I owe you for this, David?

If so, let me know please.

Be even better if you owe me.

[tikay]

For Peter's stakes, surely not even Boyles will restrict him? Fiver at 15/8?
Think you'd have a right to complain if they boshed you for that!

25/1 is the Boyle Sports bet 

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill (although I'm now told this is higher with Betfair): Suggest £5
2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports: Suggest £5
3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor: Suggest £10

i can't find number 3) on betvictor at all, or on oddschecker

link please

I can't seem to find it now either, I think they took it down permanently post-FP3 :-(

I'm cracking up, who put Keke Rosberg on the spreadsheet - I'm guessing Tikay!

As hard as it is for you to accept, we're not in the 80's anymore 

Thery don't allow me near the Spready these days Pete, no idea why.

I suspect that Tighty - a great fan of your stuff - was just having a little sport in typing "Keke".

It's because he knows I'm pedantic after I tried to correct "Maldonada" the other week

I think Tighty just likes to lay down a little ground bait now and then Pete, to see if he gets any bites.

If you really examine the Spready closely, you will notice any number of little ironic entries.

[tikay]

Seems to be a problem with my oddschecker. I can't see what Billy Mountain is setting as his lines on cards (total and the teams separately). Just shows the price twice, rather than the number for over/under.

The ref has been criticised for being too lenient, particularly in the USA-Germany game. Far too keen on letting the game flow. Last chance for some of these refs to get that final spot and the big decisions need to be right.

http://worldreferee.com/site/copy.php?linkID=605

Yes markedly kinder this tournament on paper.

what is the actual bet you want here?

Doesn't Tal just provide the soundtrack to the board? 

Second pop in a day, doobs? Play nicely.

Tighty, I'm just doing some research, really. The farce of last night leads me to the view there could be some more yellows today, that's all. This guy hasn't shown that yet in this tournament, but he's certainly been capable of doing so before this tournament... and that's how he got the gig.

Not sure whether individual player markets, total cards or cards per team markets are good/better/best. I'll have a look on boyles anyway...

Soundtrack is good, we need some colour or the board is just a bunch of maths dullards boring each other. 

Last night had just done my nuts along with thread on Colombia and Neymar to come on here and see some Brazilians going nuts.  Jokes about rubs are never serious though.  In fact most of my posts to you are never serious.

Peace. 

That expression might just stick.

maths dullard

Yes, pretty sure that is here to stay.

"what do the maths dullards think?"

[Doobs]

If thread wants a tenner each way on each of 16/1 Mukhadram e/w and Trading Leather (18/1) let me know.  Both are quarter the odds.  I can see thread can't get on with the quarter odds firms.  Think we are down to 10 runners and maybe we lose Kingston Hill which won't be a bad result.  

Do I owe you for this, David?

If so, let me know please.

Be even better if you owe me.

Sort it after the race.  Tighty ran a slate while you were away.  Really not sure where we stand, but hopefully we can clear it with one of these.  I think the last one was 30 and we already had 40, but can't remember if anything won.  So this might make 110. Will have to revisit my PMs etc if Tighty can't help.  

[tikay]

If thread wants a tenner each way on each of 16/1 Mukhadram e/w and Trading Leather (18/1) let me know.  Both are quarter the odds.  I can see thread can't get on with the quarter odds firms.  Think we are down to 10 runners and maybe we lose Kingston Hill which won't be a bad result.  

Do I owe you for this, David?

If so, let me know please.

Be even better if you owe me.

Sort it after the race.  Tighty ran a slate while you were away.  Really not sure where we stand, but hopefully we can clear it with one of these.  I think the last one was 30 and we already had 40, but can't remember if anything won.  So this might make 110. Will have to revisit my PMs etc if Tighty can't help.  

Most grateful, thanks.

I will get it paid over the weekend, once the amount has been worked out.

However, if you owe me more than £500, there is a drink in it for you.

[TightEnd]

Neil

Post earlier!

1/2 at 16/1 and 18/1?!

lol, thanks

[tikay]

What an absolute mess of a race that was.

Delighted for William though, I have a real soft spot for him.

[Doobs]

Neil

Post earlier!

1/2 at 16/1 and 18/1?!

lol, thanks

Guess that clears the debt then.  Cheers Neil, fantastic tipping.

[tikay]

Bit late to mention it I know but just catching up. At 1/5th odds 123 the Eclipse is not a very good race to have each-way bets in. It's pretty competitive and 11 runners is a bad number. With 9 or 10 it would be much better on the maths (obviously 8 is best if they were all 10000% certain to run). Some firms offer 1/4 in this one but you went with BMU (hate them so much) who are 1/5th.

 Visored 1st time horses (like True Story) are kind of bad for each-way generally. The trainer often reaches for blinkers/visor when they run out of ideas because the horse needs "waking-up" or it's inconsistent and it can go both ways with the horse sometimes resenting this. The blinkers/visor will usually make the horse run very fast early, (they are scared, as a herding animal they want to run with the others but they can only see straight ahead so they run fast), this often means they fade late...the nut worst kind of ew bet.

 As an extra point on the Eclipse the rain is not anything as much as expected and unless there is loads more between now and 3.50 I can't see it having an effect. Kingston Hill was backed from 11/2 into 9/2 because of Pricewise (who anticipated rain) and people anticipating or actually experiencing rain. The fact that it's 6.8 again and the sun is out should tell you a lot.

 I bet Verrazano on Wednesday at 5/1 and I feel like I've lost already. The horse is not a certain stayer and soft ground would be a neg but I do think it was pretty amazing on it's day in the States and it's Ascot form is not as bad as some seem to think. Maybe with the ground looking more like G/F I should get excited again and go back in at 8/1.

 Trading Leather and Mukhadram are fair shouts with no rain at 16/1.

Ridiculous, absolutely ridic.

Well done Lord G.

[tikay]

Neil

Post earlier!

1/2 at 16/1 and 18/1?!

lol, thanks

Guess that clears the debt then.  Cheers Neil, fantastic tipping.

Wow, thanks Doobs, you did us a right favour there.

[TightEnd]

watching that race, hanagan just stole it didn't he?

the jockeys out the back caught out by the pace?

the fugue never got given a chance


or is it more complicated than that?

[simonnatur]

Trading Leather not the worst 25-1 shot I've ever backed, wish I'd done it e/w though. Nevermind, Neil rides to the rescue.