Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

the Tour De Yorkshire begins in an hour

Kittel and Cavendish are 3-1 joints for the opening stage

we have  for today

TdeF 2014 stage 1   Griepel   7/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

hopefully Tonji and the incredible cycling team can keep us up to date

should be quite a specatcle if you can catch it too

Click to see full-size image.

Best three weeks of the year are here   

Greipel is a general 5/1 now, so we have the value part.

Greipel & his Lotto team have been sounding confident in press conference on their chances in stage 1.

All the cycling journos are billing this as the most exciting Tour in years, with plenty of opportunities for explosive upsets. Hope it lives up to the hype.

[TightEnd]

I've just backed True Story e/w in the Eclipse @ 18-1 with BV. Think third by 1½ lengths to The Grey Gatsby in The Dante is far from the worst form on offer. Seemingly won't mind the rain in the ground which is considered a negative for The Fugue. Rec £10 e/w

its 18-1, so we'd expect it to have holes...

deep breath

i am also on a hiding to nothing when it scoots up, so i am sure we will put it on but

really?

didn't like the (post rain) ground at york much in the dante, connections interviewed afterwards said so.

gatsby then franked the form and everyone is bullish for the derby

then finished 7th in the derby, possibly not helped by being baulked on the outside if i recall correctly

and we think it will get in the frame here?

i don't see much to suggest it will (cue to all pile on)

"TRAINER Saeed Bin Suroor is hoping the rain stays away from the Curragh to enable Derby seventh True Story to line up for a Classic Godolphin won 20 years ago with one of their first top-class horses."

"He didn't run at all in the Derby. Before the race he was flying but as soon as he left the stalls he was not there. At halfway Kieren [Fallon] had to ask him, which is unusual for the horse. Kieren said he didn't like the track. We know he's much better than that.

"Saturday all depends on the weather. He needs the ground to be good to firm. If there is rain we will wait for the Coral-Eclipse."

this was all in this pre irish derby article



http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/curragh-true-story-camp-on-weather-watch-for-irish-derby-bid/1679024/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

"seemingly won't mind the rain" is incorrect i think

Key points in favour for me were back to 10f and form from Dante on Good to Soft, Good in places (may have finished closer if not slightly hampered in closing stages)
Fred already has a decent position with Kingston Hill imo , no need to add to it without further support. Always grateful for feedback.

no problem, we only have a fiver e/w on kingston hill so unfortunately its not a decent position, but thats the vagaries of b365 for that account

as i say, we'll go with it most likely.

i always feel bad because its easy to misconstrue a (an attempted) constructive debate as criticism when its not meant to be

good luck, hope you scoop

[tikay]

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Boylesports are a non-no i am afraid, account closed. Probable palp on that too, so be careful

bet 3) "basicallya bet on ricciardo to finish the race" really? i accept that on race pace/long runs the red bulls should have the edge but it is surely a lot more competitive than your statement implies behind the mercs?

whilst the red bulls obviously do well in the high speed corners/downforce etc, the williams will have them for pace on wellington, down hangar, lots of overtaking possible?

Williams will have pace on this track, but Red Bull look strong both on single-lap and race pace, I do expect them to be considerably quicker on race pace. I think it's a safe enough bet at that price, recommend £10.

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Thanks Peter.

I'm going to leave those to someone who knows better than me, Tighty, &/or others.

The Bottas price is a clear palp (see Nico), but in any event, most of us are banned from Boyles.

The Rosberg price (see Nico again) can be beaten by Betty.

As to the "small" stakes as commented by others, the stakes are just fine. Ther way we work here is never to suggest upping stakes, as it only serves to intimidate some guys from putting bets up, they feel uncomfy with higher amounts & in some cases, will not put bets up if the stakes are to be upped.

If regulars think the Stakes on a particular bet are too small, then they should make a separate Recommend, & if appropriate, it'll be put on.

So we are totally fine with your suggested stake sizes.

2 questions;

1) What do you guys mean by palp?
2) Why are you guys all banned from Boyles?

Hi Pete,

Others can explain this better, but "palp" is short for "palpable error".

If a bookie makes a "palpable error" (such as quoting 25/1 on a 6/1 shot), they invoke "Palpable Error" & will NOT honour the price. They will also, most likely, close the account for taking advantage of their error. So they freeroll you. Always best to avoid "palps", as you have no upside, & lots of downside.

Why are we banned by Boyles? Because we had the temerity to make money betting with them. Their prices are very often "Best Price", but when you take these prices, they close you down. It'd be better if they priced stuff properly, & then allowed people to win & lose.

Boyles were the first Firm to close Fred down, but most winning punters suffered the same fate with Boyles. In fact, I believe that Tal & Chompy are the only two Freddies who still have active Boyles Accounts.

[scotty2hatty]

For those who haven't spotted it at the top of the board we've got a Sporting Reverse Sheep Quiz on the go. Simple questions that everyone should be able to get, deadline and answer reveal tomorrow. Should be fun.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63970.30

[Peter-27]

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Boylesports are a non-no i am afraid, account closed. Probable palp on that too, so be careful

bet 3) "basicallya bet on ricciardo to finish the race" really? i accept that on race pace/long runs the red bulls should have the edge but it is surely a lot more competitive than your statement implies behind the mercs?

whilst the red bulls obviously do well in the high speed corners/downforce etc, the williams will have them for pace on wellington, down hangar, lots of overtaking possible?

Williams will have pace on this track, but Red Bull look strong both on single-lap and race pace, I do expect them to be considerably quicker on race pace. I think it's a safe enough bet at that price, recommend £10.

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Thanks Peter.

I'm going to leave those to someone who knows better than me, Tighty, &/or others.

The Bottas price is a clear palp (see Nico), but in any event, most of us are banned from Boyles.

The Rosberg price (see Nico again) can be beaten by Betty.

As to the "small" stakes as commented by others, the stakes are just fine. Ther way we work here is never to suggest upping stakes, as it only serves to intimidate some guys from putting bets up, they feel uncomfy with higher amounts & in some cases, will not put bets up if the stakes are to be upped.

If regulars think the Stakes on a particular bet are too small, then they should make a separate Recommend, & if appropriate, it'll be put on.

So we are totally fine with your suggested stake sizes.

2 questions;

1) What do you guys mean by palp?
2) Why are you guys all banned from Boyles?

Hi Pete,

Others can explain this better, but "palp" is short for "palpable error".

If a bookie makes a "palpable error" (such as quoting 25/1 on a 6/1 shot), they invoke "Palpable Error" & will NOT honour the price. They will also, most likely, close the account for taking advantage of their error. So they freeroll you. Always best to avoid "palps", as you have no upside, & lots of downside.

Why are we banned by Boyles? Because we had the temerity to make money betting with them. Their prices are very often "Best Price", but when you take these prices, they close you down. It'd be better if they priced stuff properly, & then allowed people to win & lose.

Boyles were the first Firm to close Fred down, but most winning punters suffered the same fate with Boyles.  

Very surprised by both these things. Hmmm, my understanding of the way the majority of people bet is that they don't look for the best price and don't check oddschecker. They just place bets with any bookie and therefore they may not know it's a palp. Closing their account down for that would be very harsh.

If they did this to me I would constantly bug them with complaints - I'm persistent like that   Probably wouldn't change their mind of course ..

[tikay]

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Boylesports are a non-no i am afraid, account closed. Probable palp on that too, so be careful

bet 3) "basicallya bet on ricciardo to finish the race" really? i accept that on race pace/long runs the red bulls should have the edge but it is surely a lot more competitive than your statement implies behind the mercs?

whilst the red bulls obviously do well in the high speed corners/downforce etc, the williams will have them for pace on wellington, down hangar, lots of overtaking possible?

Williams will have pace on this track, but Red Bull look strong both on single-lap and race pace, I do expect them to be considerably quicker on race pace. I think it's a safe enough bet at that price, recommend £10.

Alright, three F1 bets for you guys right now:

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill

That's a standard price for Nico Rosberg every weekend. However the bookies don't appear to have factored in that closest rival Lewis "MardyBum" Hamilton didn't do a high-fuel run today due to a mechanical failure. With tomorrow forecast to be wet (meaning he still would not be able to complete a race simulation), that could hamper him in the race. Lewis does know this track better than anyone, so it is quite possible he could go on to win the race anyway - but that price on Rosberg is definitely value. Recommend £5 or £10, depending on how risky you're feeling.

2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports

25/1 is an insane price. Pretty much all other bookies have gone 5/1 which is much more realistic. Bottas is handy in the wet and could well qualify strong tomorrow if the rain begins to fall. Small bet, £5 max.

3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor

I love these group bets sometimes. The Red Bull of Ricciardo is quicker than the Williams' or Alonso over a race stint under normal circumstances, this 13/8 is basically on Ricciardo to finish the race making it a great price.

Thanks Peter.

I'm going to leave those to someone who knows better than me, Tighty, &/or others.

The Bottas price is a clear palp (see Nico), but in any event, most of us are banned from Boyles.

The Rosberg price (see Nico again) can be beaten by Betty.

As to the "small" stakes as commented by others, the stakes are just fine. Ther way we work here is never to suggest upping stakes, as it only serves to intimidate some guys from putting bets up, they feel uncomfy with higher amounts & in some cases, will not put bets up if the stakes are to be upped.

If regulars think the Stakes on a particular bet are too small, then they should make a separate Recommend, & if appropriate, it'll be put on.

So we are totally fine with your suggested stake sizes.

2 questions;

1) What do you guys mean by palp?
2) Why are you guys all banned from Boyles?

Hi Pete,

Others can explain this better, but "palp" is short for "palpable error".

If a bookie makes a "palpable error" (such as quoting 25/1 on a 6/1 shot), they invoke "Palpable Error" & will NOT honour the price. They will also, most likely, close the account for taking advantage of their error. So they freeroll you. Always best to avoid "palps", as you have no upside, & lots of downside.

Why are we banned by Boyles? Because we had the temerity to make money betting with them. Their prices are very often "Best Price", but when you take these prices, they close you down. It'd be better if they priced stuff properly, & then allowed people to win & lose.

Boyles were the first Firm to close Fred down, but most winning punters suffered the same fate with Boyles.  

Very surprised by both these things. Hmmm, my understanding of the way the majority of people bet is that they don't look for the best price and don't check oddschecker. They just place bets with any bookie and therefore they may not know it's a palp. Closing their account down for that would be very harsh.

If they did this to me I'd constantly bug them with complaints - I'm persistent like that   Probably wouldn't change their mind of course ..

Ha! Good luck complaining.

Fred has had their Accounts closed by....

Stan James

Effectively closed (refuse to take any bet) by...

Boyles

Are Severely Restricted by.....

Bet365

Paddy Power

Ladbrokes

Are generally "Referred to Trader" or offered reduced stakes by....

Coral

Sporting Bet

BetFred & Tote (same firm, in effect)

I think the only Firm who have never Restricted us in any way are Wm Hill.

We can of course do what we like on Betfair Exchange, & we do not use, because of my connections, Sky Bet.

[Tal]

I so thought I was getting away with that...

[Tal]

For Peter's stakes, surely not even Boyles will restrict him? Fiver at 15/8?
Think you'd have a right to complain if they boshed you for that!

[Peter-27]

For Peter's stakes, surely not even Boyles will restrict him? Fiver at 15/8?
Think you'd have a right to complain if they boshed you for that!

25/1 is the Boyle Sports bet 

1) Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 15/8 with William Hill (although I'm now told this is higher with Betfair): Suggest £5
2) W/O Mercedes: Valtteri Bottas @ 25/1 with Boyle Sports: Suggest £5
3) Group A (RIC/ALO/BOT/MAS): Daniel Ricciardo @ 13/8 with Bet Victor: Suggest £10

[Doobs]

Very happy to wait to get the True Story suggestion seconded by an elder before parting with Tikay's hard-earned. For anyone who does like it Stan James are now 18-1 qtr odds

Thanks.

Tighty has now commented further, & taken the reins. (see "hospital pass").

As to the going, & weather, I live around 4 miles from Sandown Park, & we have had a great deal of overnight rain. Currently, it is heavily overcast, but quite windy. 

The BMU price of 18/1 is one fifth odds, others have qtr odds @ lesser prices. We don't use Satan.

Betfair go 17.2 for the Win, & 4.2 the place.

Must be said, @ 18/1, it can't be terrible & we don't expect 18/1 shots to be nailed on, so I have no probs with giving it a spin.

Any of our Racing chaps around, who have a view?

I am fairly neutral and have a big Kingston Hill position but if it is an arb and someone fancies it I wouldn't stop you.  I really don't know the ground though.  I assume it is good/good to soft now.  No idea why it is getting backed if it is softer.

Am a bit late I guess.  

[Doobs]

For Peter's stakes, surely not even Boyles will restrict him? Fiver at 15/8?
Think you'd have a right to complain if they boshed you for that!

Boyles restricted my first ever bet to a fiver.  After the second I could no longer get any horse racing bet on.  Think they still lay me for other sports.

[tikay]

I so thought I was getting away with that...

Not a chance, not a chance.

PS - Loved "best biscuits", bought back such happy memories of childhood when we had a "Best Biscuit Caddy".

[tikay]

Very happy to wait to get the True Story suggestion seconded by an elder before parting with Tikay's hard-earned. For anyone who does like it Stan James are now 18-1 qtr odds

Thanks.

Tighty has now commented further, & taken the reins. (see "hospital pass").

As to the going, & weather, I live around 4 miles from Sandown Park, & we have had a great deal of overnight rain. Currently, it is heavily overcast, but quite windy. 

The BMU price of 18/1 is one fifth odds, others have qtr odds @ lesser prices. We don't use Satan.

Betfair go 17.2 for the Win, & 4.2 the place.

Must be said, @ 18/1, it can't be terrible & we don't expect 18/1 shots to be nailed on, so I have no probs with giving it a spin.

Any of our Racing chaps around, who have a view?

I am fairly neutral and have a big Kingston Hill position but if it is an arb and someone fancies it I wouldn't stop you.  I really don't know the ground though.  I assume it is good/good to soft now.  No idea why it is getting backed if it is softer.

Am a bit late I guess.  

Thanks, I was hoping for a 2nd opinion. I'll get on shortly.

[maldini32]

the Tour De Yorkshire begins in an hour

Kittel and Cavendish are 3-1 joints for the opening stage

we have  for today

TdeF 2014 stage 1   Griepel   7/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

hopefully Tonji and the incredible cycling team can keep us up to date

should be quite a specatcle if you can catch it too

It's a bit of a nightmare with all the roads closed around here! Suppose we can't grumble for a few days and just enjoy it.

[Nico29]

Tikay explained the palp thing very well imo.

It's 99% that the 25/1 shot is a palp and you'll end up getting freerolled/go down the route of restriction/closure etc.

If betfair has money wanting to back something for a certain price, yet one firm is 5x that price and everyone's else's, chances are it's a palp.

Yes boyles might have a very strong opinion on the bet, but even then they wouldn't need to offer such an ool price, makes no business sense.

Gl with your bets today Peter, I def respect your enthusiasm for F1 and in finding value spots from its often more obscure betting markets.