Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 Sorry Peter. Just saw your post. I'd have been pretty happy to take 13/2 and at 7/2 I'd have laid him. 5/1 would be the in-the-middle no bet territory.

 This thing is still pretty open, there are lots of people I could easily have bet if the price had been just a little bigger. I just this one was wrong.

 They definitely laid a fair bit here. It's funny really when you think how hard it can be to get on things that are a much bigger market.

[Tal]

Sorry Peter. Just saw your post. I'd have been pretty happy to take 13/2 and at 7/2 I'd have laid him. 5/1 would be the in-the-middle no bet territory.

 This thing is still pretty open, there are lots of people I could easily have bet if the price had been just a little bigger. I just this one was wrong.

 They definitely laid a fair bit here. It's funny really when you think how hard it can be to get on things that are a much bigger market.

Is it like the old days? You know, when a bookie had an opinion and said "come on then, who fancies a bet?"

[Karabiner]

I gotta banzai, I gotta banzai.

Danny Willett is a bit of a nutter by all accounts, but a loveable and talented one.

He's been a lot more disciplined and consistent this season having not missed one single cut, and to my eye improving all of the time coming 3rd, 8th, and 11th in his last three outings, that latter result being in last week's Scottish Open.

I've gone the betty route and am on @ 220 in the win market but the 150/1 with 8 places looks like a decent alternative with their sportsbook.

Recommend £5 EW Danny Willett @ 150/1 12345678 in The Open Championship with betunfair sporty chaps.

[Doobs]

Just done a value trawl on the Open markets.

Of those already mentioned it throws up the following as good bets with the BF sportsbook: Ilonen (80/1), McDowell (28/1), Bjorn (Tighty's rec at 55/1).  Kaymer is OK, but not as good as I thought he would be, and Jiminez (Adz's rec) is nearly there at 90/1.  I have backed all these now.

Others I have backed are:
Rory (BF sportsbook 16/1, I am having faith in the maths, so please don't fall apart in round 2.  His form has been generally good
Mickelson at 25/1 with PP (though they limited me)
Day at 40/1 with beteveryday (had an injury earlier in the year, has come back well
Bubba at 45/1 with beteveryday.  His form this year is very strong.
Paul Casey at 55/1 with BF SB.  Don't think he has placed this year.  Maybe one thread could miss, I am a maths geek, so have backed him anyway.
Poulter Coral at 66/1  His form looks solid
Cabrera at 70/1 (BF SB) Has just done a win
Donaldson at 66/1 (BF SB) Missed cut last week, but had a couple of strong performances the week before.
Gallacher at 80/1 (BF SB).  He was one that came up last week and finished really well to take a place.
Dubuisson at 110/1 (BF SB).  He is very good on the maths.
Manassero at 125/1 (BF SB).  Finished strongly last week.
Blixt 125/1 (BF SB).  he has missed quite a few cuts recently, but ran good in the Masters.  Possibly another for the possible discard pile?
Willett 150/1 (BF SB).  He is very good on the maths and was thrown up in the trawl last week, and was close without looking like getting in the top 6
English 150/1 (Boyles and Sporting)

I am unlikely to be able to do this again later in the week, so have personally just backed them all now.  Wednesday is a poker night and I have missed a few recently..  If people back any of these, it is essential people back these at theses prices or with the same offer.  Losing a couple of places can make a big difference, as can hacking 10% off the price.  

How thread uses this is up to Tikay, I am happy with them all, and a tenner each way on the ones I am more positive on is only just over £200 (whistling smiley).  The weather looks fine on Thursday right now, but Friday could be messy.  I am fairly sanguine on this, some might get bad draws, some might get good draws.  Maybe Friday will be just as bad for all, maybe the good weather will last until the weekend.

Edit.  I also did the Japanese Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama with Hills at 66/1.  He doesn't appear to have played for a month, which is a worry.  I am not sure whether there is an issue, but would like to know a reason before reccing him up.  He won a tournament just before he disappeared, so maybe he just took a break?

[Doobs]

I gotta banzai, I gotta banzai.

Danny Willett is a bit of a nutter by all accounts, but a loveable and talented one.

He's been a lot more disciplined and consistent this season having not missed one single cut, and to my eye improving all of the time coming 3rd, 8th, and 11th in his last three outings, that latter result being in last week's Scottish Open.

I've gone the betty route and am on @ 220 in the win market but the 150/1 with 8 places looks like a decent alternative with their sportsbook.

Recommend £5 EW Danny Willett @ 150/1 12345678 in The Open Championship with betunfair sporty chaps.

Great minds.  The SB e.w is a lot better.  You lose quite a bit on the win, but you are getting roughly double the price you should on the place.

[scotty2hatty]

Have you really backed like 18 people?

[scotty2hatty]

Have you really backed like 18 people?

Rhetoric btw

[bobby1]

One of those players has been to Leeds infirmary today to have a scan on their wrist, really really easy to find that out if you took any time to check. He might be ok, but why bet now instead of when there is more news available? He's actually drifted 10 points on BF since he got hurt last week.

''but Friday could be messy.  I am fairly sanguine on this, some might get bad draws, some might get good draws.  Maybe Friday will be just as bad for all''

Why not just wait until you know if there is likely to be any bias, you can at least just adjust the staking plan if you then  still insist on backing players later in the week that you picked on a Monday night without knowing one of the more important pieces of info.  

Anyone that bets 18 players simply by just looking at the Monday night BF book just looks like someone that wants action on a big event but doesn't really have the knowledge pick them logically. And you have suggested Tony spends £200 on those selections too.

We've been here before, there are so many errors there that even a blind man could see yet you value these selections as worthy of £200?

[Doobs]

One of those players has been to Leeds infirmary today to have a scan on their wrist, really really easy to find that out if you took any time to check. He might be ok, but why bet now instead of when there is more news available? He's actually drifted 10 points on BF since he got hurt last week.

''but Friday could be messy.  I am fairly sanguine on this, some might get bad draws, some might get good draws.  Maybe Friday will be just as bad for all''

Why not just wait until you know if there is likely to be any bias, you can at least just adjust the staking plan if you then  still insist on backing players later in the week that you picked on a Monday night without knowing one of the more important pieces of info.  

Anyone that bets 18 players simply by just looking at the Monday night BF book just looks like someone that wants action on a big event but doesn't really have the knowledge pick them logically. And you have suggested Tony spends £200 on those selections too.

We've been here before, there are so many errors there that even a blind man could see yet you value these selections as worthy of £200?

Sigh.  We have been here before, way too often some would say. 

Up til midnight the day after a Sunday, and after a week of interrupted sleep.   I explained that is all I could do, and couldn't do this on Wednesday after the possibility of a bias is known.  I guessed there was a good chance this was coming, so even posted a get out. 

I am the 2nd biggest winner here after Channing, so guess this kind of shat works, despite sometimes picking bad bets.  I don't feel bad about £200 as I am up a fair bit more than that with Tony. 

The bias is going to be a 2 way thing.  If I back 20, some are going to be even, some bad, some good.  It is just variance to me.

If someone has a bad wrist just say who, if there are errors just say what they are.  It is what the rest of us do when there is something wrong with a post.  If someone says 4 of these are wrong because of A,B,C and D that is good for the readers and what this thread should be about.  Alternatively you know your golf, I have left plenty of space for you to come up with selections. I can do this kind of thing on maybe 4 tournaments a year, there is space for selections based on better research every week.

PS it was Tighty that was against O'Sullivan, ironically I backed him. 

[Karabiner]

^^^

I was a little surprised that you had Poults in there too.

[horseplayer]

betfred/totesport gone 8 places max £100 each way a player and unlike betfair no limits for 7th and 8th

If any regs want some bets on with Tote than let me know via Pm before 12pm

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £138.39

Outstanding Bets £2263.20

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

No bets completed yesterday


Martin Jacobsen has just made the November Nine, 8 of 9 with 14.9m at 200-400k. He is second from the right



Cycling. Contador's withdrawal has thrown the TdF open, although Nibali is now as short as 1/3 after his win yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

Valverde finished yesterday in a podium position, but didn't look to have Nibali's strength. Still, with Contador and Froome gone, encouraging for the each way bet there

Click to see full-size image.

Tonight Glamorgan play at Sssex in the T20 balst on TV. Important game for the Glamorgan bet at 33-1 as we move towards the quarter finals

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Just done a value trawl on the Open markets.

Of those already mentioned it throws up the following as good bets with the BF sportsbook: Ilonen (80/1), McDowell (28/1), Bjorn (Tighty's rec at 55/1).  Kaymer is OK, but not as good as I thought he would be, and Jiminez (Adz's rec) is nearly there at 90/1.  I have backed all these now.

Others I have backed are:
Rory (BF sportsbook 16/1, I am having faith in the maths, so please don't fall apart in round 2.  His form has been generally good
Mickelson at 25/1 with PP (though they limited me)
Day at 40/1 with beteveryday (had an injury earlier in the year, has come back well
Bubba at 45/1 with beteveryday.  His form this year is very strong.
Paul Casey at 55/1 with BF SB.  Don't think he has placed this year.  Maybe one thread could miss, I am a maths geek, so have backed him anyway.
Poulter Coral at 66/1  His form looks solid
Cabrera at 70/1 (BF SB) Has just done a win
Donaldson at 66/1 (BF SB) Missed cut last week, but had a couple of strong performances the week before.
Gallacher at 80/1 (BF SB).  He was one that came up last week and finished really well to take a place.
Dubuisson at 110/1 (BF SB).  He is very good on the maths.
Manassero at 125/1 (BF SB).  Finished strongly last week.
Blixt 125/1 (BF SB).  he has missed quite a few cuts recently, but ran good in the Masters.  Possibly another for the possible discard pile?
Willett 150/1 (BF SB).  He is very good on the maths and was thrown up in the trawl last week, and was close without looking like getting in the top 6
English 150/1 (Boyles and Sporting)

I am unlikely to be able to do this again later in the week, so have personally just backed them all now.  Wednesday is a poker night and I have missed a few recently..  If people back any of these, it is essential people back these at theses prices or with the same offer.  Losing a couple of places can make a big difference, as can hacking 10% off the price. 

How thread uses this is up to Tikay, I am happy with them all, and a tenner each way on the ones I am more positive on is only just over £200 (whistling smiley).  The weather looks fine on Thursday right now, but Friday could be messy.  I am fairly sanguine on this, some might get bad draws, some might get good draws.  Maybe Friday will be just as bad for all, maybe the good weather will last until the weekend.

Edit.  I also did the Japanese Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama with Hills at 66/1.  He doesn't appear to have played for a month, which is a worry.  I am not sure whether there is an issue, but would like to know a reason before reccing him up.  He won a tournament just before he disappeared, so maybe he just took a break?

can someone tell me which of these can be ruled out on injury etc?

[Doobs]

Poulter has just given a partial all clear on his twitter to save you time decyphering the above.  He is on painkillers. 

Can't help with the others going to be busy til at least 1 now.

[tikay]

SPAM ALERT

There is an Open Golf Betting Preview show tonight on Ch 861 between 8pm & 10pm.

In the studio will be Sean Boyce (AtTheRaces bloke), John Rhodes (golf expert bloke), Sam Harrop (oddschecker bloke) & Neil Channing (BettingEmporium bloke).

It'll mostly be nattering, steers & pointers. With added nattering.

Questions & tips?

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