Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

I have to get on. Interesting discussion but I'm all behind. Just quickly though...I may be wrong but I think I read the 8 places is today only with Fred. Is that true does anyone know?

 Also I think the recent Rory drift on Betfair is purely because Ladbrokes just pushed him out to 20/1...a clear arb.

[bobby1]

FWIW I think the issue with DOOBS is his matter of fact way he mosts.  Clearly lacks interpersonal skills. 

As a side note a mate of mine who is quite savvy on golf has given me:

Jimmy Walker
Adam Scott
Jim Furky
Jamie Donaldson. 

I know nothing about Golf are any of those worth punting?

This thread works best when everyone is working together, whether it be recommending, dispensing knowledge, trying to find angles etc

That is how it used to run tho Rich until big parts of it were taken away to monetise the views of some of the posters, so there is now little value in other people giving away their thoughts for free to find someone is selling theirs instead of responding here. Are you allowed to post cricket bets in here now you write for BE?

I've just given one of my thoughts for free and Neil has also done that too. The difference is Neil is benefiting from advertising he will be putting some selections up on BE later and I am getting no return for putting up my thoughts. We could be getting your cricket ideas, Neil's racing, Reds football thoughts etc but we aren't.

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

[bobby1]

I have to get on. Interesting discussion but I'm all behind. Just quickly though...I may be wrong but I think I read the 8 places is today only with Fred. Is that true does anyone know?

 Also I think the recent Rory drift on Betfair is purely because Ladbrokes just pushed him out to 20/1...a clear arb.

yes me too really, tho I would suggest that the fixed odds drift is driving the BF drift and not the other way around. More likely  that golf traders for the fixed odds firms are seeing the same things and decided he is too short. Maybe its a conversation for another day about golf markets on BF being  one of the only sports where the fixed odds market initially drives the BF market.


Good luck with whatever you bet.

[simonnatur]

The 8.40 at Thirsk is that near-mythical beast the 8 runner maiden with a 1/5 fav and 2 100-1 + shots, was pondering backing Legal Advisor @ 40-1 e/w.
Anyone fancy anything in this for place money? (hard to, I know..)

[peejaytwo]

I have to get on. Interesting discussion but I'm all behind. Just quickly though...I may be wrong but I think I read the 8 places is today only with Fred. Is that true does anyone know?

 Also I think the recent Rory drift on Betfair is purely because Ladbrokes just pushed him out to 20/1...a clear arb.

8 places til midnight weds Neil

[TightEnd]

FWIW I think the issue with DOOBS is his matter of fact way he mosts.  Clearly lacks interpersonal skills. 

As a side note a mate of mine who is quite savvy on golf has given me:

Jimmy Walker
Adam Scott
Jim Furky
Jamie Donaldson. 

I know nothing about Golf are any of those worth punting?

This thread works best when everyone is working together, whether it be recommending, dispensing knowledge, trying to find angles etc

That is how it used to run tho Rich until big parts of it were taken away to monetise the views of some of the posters, so there is now little value in other people giving away their thoughts for free to find someone is selling theirs instead of responding here. Are you allowed to post cricket bets in here now you write for BE?

I've just given one of my thoughts for free and Neil has also done that too. The difference is Neil is benefiting from advertising he will be putting some selections up on BE later and I am getting no return for putting up my thoughts. We could be getting your cricket ideas, Neil's racing, Reds football thoughts etc but we aren't.

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

I believe it is the case that Neil, to use one example, has put more recommendations on here post BE's formation than he did before

I've begun to do some cricket on BE, which is free to read for the forseeable future, i've written on cricket and other sports in other places too. I still put plenty of thoughts on here on various sports, cricket included. I put less up recently as I am not comfortable both recommending and placing a bet with tikay's money. This was probably a good thing for the P and L

i'd prefer to have your recommendations on your good sports Phil, rather than (in amongst the tremendous feedback) personal carping at various people.

"allowed to happen"? tikay, myself, blonde are not in a position to stop anyone posting anything anywhere, nor would we want to. what would you suggest, prevent people with other interests (occasionally commercial) posting on here?

[Bad Beat]

 I will be writing something for Betting Emporium on the Open and it will appear at noon tomorrow. I can confirm and I'd like to stress though that it will be totally free, as is a lot of the stuff we do.

 I do have a big list of things to do today and it doesn't include "Have an argument on Tips for Tikay" but I was a bit upset at some posts that appeared a few weeks ago and I spent some time looking at some facts, as I think this is often a great starting point when assessing things.

 It is a fact that I posted on TFT 146 times in 2012.

 It is a fact that I posted on TFT 325 times in 2013.

 I counted these up a couple of weeks ago and the number for 2014 has gone up since but it was 184 at the time so I'll bet that I end up with more posts this year.

 I enjoy TFT, I personally enjoy posting and reading the posts of others. I think it's totally incorrect to say that I no longer post due to my involvement in Betting Emporium and I think it's completely unfair to make the suggestion that I only ever posted because of Betting Emporium to advertise the business, if that is what is being suggested...BE did not exist in 2012 and in 2013 we had no clear plan as to how the business would work.

 I'm not sure if the suggestion is that Joe and I should have...

 a. Immediately stopped posting on TFT after we set up BE.

 b. Dropped the idea of starting the business as it would make things difficult for us to continue to enjoy TFT.

 We went for c...

 Carry on posting and enjoying the thread, also running the business where we give loads of valuable information for free and charge for some, we aren't squeamish about that by the way, the customers are getting the lot and they seem very happy about that, and we think it's acceptable for a business to make money. We decided to make Blonde an affiliate so that Blonde could benefit from any sign-ups we get from here, as we both like Blonde a lot. I would say that we have not made too much money from sign-ups through Blonde and therefore Blonde have earned very little. If our plan was simply to spend hundreds of hours giving of ourselves for free so that we could cash in on all the sign-ups then we have failed and we should stop posting. The fact that we haven't may suggest that we are enjoying being here.

 I'm not sure where the idea that we steal all our ideas for tips from here and then charge for them comes from. In fact that upsets me a little, it simply isn't true.

 

[Doobs]

I have to get on. Interesting discussion but I'm all behind. Just quickly though...I may be wrong but I think I read the 8 places is today only with Fred. Is that true does anyone know?

 Also I think the recent Rory drift on Betfair is purely because Ladbrokes just pushed him out to 20/1...a clear arb.

8 places til midnight weds Neil

I can't really get a bet on with them, but whatever his mental issues may be 20/1 with 8 places must be a good bet.  He has strung some fairly solid results in amongst his collapses.  I guess the collapses are more memorable though. 

[TightEnd]

Whilst working on my Open portfolio, one name keeps popping up time after time when looking at past Opens, ability to play links etc.

Miguel Angel Jimenez.

Now I doubt that he can break his Majors duck here, but at the prices and 8 places available, he has to go in our team.

His Open record is superb. Top 30 placing for last 5+ years. Last time it was held here he was 41st after carding the joint second best First round score.

To my eyes he is playing as well as ever, despite being over 50 now, having won twice already this year, including finally winning his native Spanish Open

Whilst he never troubled the leaders this weekend, he finished pleasingly with a 69.

He is top ten in the scrambling stats, which is always nice going into a links tourny.

He is 90-1 with Betty SB with 8 places.

If I could break the habit of a lifetime, he even looks great value at 4/7 to be top senior too.

if you see this, do you want me to wait, do the first round leader bet, or get on with it?

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes.aspx

he is out Thursday afternoon, 1.30pm start

in so far as i can tell from looking around, an early start Thurs is preferred?

[TightEnd]

Picked up a copy of Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch, nearly through it now. If any of the elders/regular contributors  would like it when I'm done pls pm me your address and I'll pop it in the post.      edit: SORRY BOOK GONE NOW

Interested me by the way that he describes pressing hard and upping his bets in weeks when he felt "In form"  - is there any such thing in gambling , does anyone subscribe to this?

typhoon13 lent me this, very good book

anyway, i was at University with Jon, Patrick's brother

in our final year we went up to Yorkshire for Jon's 21st on the Saturday night

the Sunday was the final round of the 1989 Open

Hungover we tottered down the stairs into the living room early Sunday afternoon and were met with a resounding

"shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh" from Patrick watching the BBC with two phones, one on either arm-rest of a single chair

We sat and watched/fell asleep again as he "traded" the final round on the phone, writing down each bet longhand, with reams of shorthand notes on the floor around him

Calcavecchia won and as the final putt was sunk Patrick got up, nodded at his brother, ignored the rest of us and walked out without saying a word

Never saw him again

boring anecdote of the day.

[TightEnd]

I gotta banzai, I gotta banzai.

Danny Willett is a bit of a nutter by all accounts, but a loveable and talented one.

He's been a lot more disciplined and consistent this season having not missed one single cut, and to my eye improving all of the time coming 3rd, 8th, and 11th in his last three outings, that latter result being in last week's Scottish Open.

I've gone the betty route and am on @ 220 in the win market but the 150/1 with 8 places looks like a decent alternative with their sportsbook.

Recommend £5 EW Danny Willett @ 150/1 12345678 in The Open Championship with betunfair sporty chaps.

think this can go on independent of the wider debate about value and waiting for later in the week


The Open Championship 2014

    150/1
    £947.50
    Danny Willett
    The Open Winner - 8 Places
    £5 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000059

[Tonji]

I will be writing something for Betting Emporium on the Open and it will appear at noon tomorrow. I can confirm and I'd like to stress though that it will be totally free, as is a lot of the stuff we do.

 I do have a big list of things to do today and it doesn't include "Have an argument on Tips for Tikay" but I was a bit upset at some posts that appeared a few weeks ago and I spent some time looking at some facts, as I think this is often a great starting point when assessing things.

 It is a fact that I posted on TFT 146 times in 2012.

 It is a fact that I posted on TFT 325 times in 2013.

 I counted these up a couple of weeks ago and the number for 2014 has gone up since but it was 184 at the time so I'll bet that I end up with more posts this year.

 I enjoy TFT, I personally enjoy posting and reading the posts of others. I think it's totally incorrect to say that I no longer post due to my involvement in Betting Emporium and I think it's completely unfair to make the suggestion that I only ever posted because of Betting Emporium to advertise the business, if that is what is being suggested...BE did not exist in 2012 and in 2013 we had no clear plan as to how the business would work.

 I'm not sure if the suggestion is that Joe and I should have...

 a. Immediately stopped posting on TFT after we set up BE.

 b. Dropped the idea of starting the business as it would make things difficult for us to continue to enjoy TFT.

 We went for c...

 Carry on posting and enjoying the thread, also running the business where we give loads of valuable information for free and charge for some, we aren't squeamish about that by the way, the customers are getting the lot and they seem very happy about that, and we think it's acceptable for a business to make money. We decided to make Blonde an affiliate so that Blonde could benefit from any sign-ups we get from here, as we both like Blonde a lot. I would say that we have not made too much money from sign-ups through Blonde and therefore Blonde have earned very little. If our plan was simply to spend hundreds of hours giving of ourselves for free so that we could cash in on all the sign-ups then we have failed and we should stop posting. The fact that we haven't may suggest that we are enjoying being here.

 I'm not sure where the idea that we steal all our ideas for tips from here and then charge for them comes from. In fact that upsets me a little, it simply isn't true.

 

C. is the correct answer 

[Nico29]

FWIW I think the issue with DOOBS is his matter of fact way he mosts.  Clearly lacks interpersonal skills.  

As a side note a mate of mine who is quite savvy on golf has given me:

Jimmy Walker
Adam Scott
Jim Furky
Jamie Donaldson.  

I know nothing about Golf are any of those worth punting?

this is too harsh. In my experience he doesn't lack inter-personal skills. Doobs has been incredibly helpful to the thread in lots of ways, not just publically

This thread works best when everyone is working together, whether it be recommending, dispensing knowledge, trying to find angles etc

Doobs doesn't need me defending him, but your comment made me cringe. You won't find many who contribute as he does to trying to achieve what i outline above. Don't care if his methods are correct, incorrect, too early or whatever

+1000 Tighty.

[Tonji]

Valverde interviewed today:

“My goal remains the podium at the moment," he said. "Should we be able to gain some time and target something else, we won't rule it our and we won't stay content with what we got.
 
"I feel great, my legs are doing really well - I always say my body functions mostly by how I feel, and if the forecast is correct and good weather shows up for the remainder of the race, theoretically, I should be stronger with sun and good temperatures. I felt well in these last days, but those are conditions I don't like at all.
 
"After Liège, I only had five days of racing: three in the Route du Sud, then the Spanish Championships - if not improving it, my form should stay the same until the end of the Tour.
 
"There's still all the Alps, all the Pyrenees left... in short, all the big mountains, though not all hard stages, because we have already had some. Any stage could be good to gain or lose time.
 
"Leaving aside Wednesday and Thursday, which should be more suited for breakaways, we will have stages where anybody can 'collapse' and lose all chances. We'll try to attack, but always will always keep our minds cold - if one of our rivals is not weak, we won't do it. Attacking for the sake of attacking is nonsense. We must do it when we can hurt our rivals.
 
"Nibali? He's not unbeatable, of course, but he's proving to be really strong at the moment, and up to date he enjoyed weather conditions which suit him perfectly; he's the one who suffers the least with rain of all of us up-front.
 
"The rest, Porte, Pinot, Bardet - all of them up-and-coming youngsters who are doing really well - all of them are dangerous and worry us. I always feel responsible for my team's success, wherever I ride. But we will stay calm. We got through very important and difficult days so far in this Tour and our moment to feel more comfortable on the road and profit from it should come now. Let's hope it happens.”

The way I see it is if Valverde comes through the Alps later in the week in a similar position as of today. He'll feel more comfortable to attack or secure the podium spot in the Pyrenees. Biggest threat is likely from the French riders Pinot, Bardet & Peraud, all looking to grab the headlines in the French media. Van Garderen & Porte should also push on in the Alps, the long climbs should suit their style of riding.

[RobS]

Last night Rory was in the list of good ew bets at 16/1, only a few hours ago he would have been a good win bet at 18/1 because that price was bigger than the BF win price. As we speak now he has drifted to 20 on BF so neither of those bets are now as good as they seemed at the time, that's is because more info has been dissected and the market has moved even more. So even 2 hours ago simply looking at BF and using that market as a guide to a win bet on Rory at 18/1 would now be bad value compared with the current BF price. So 2 hours ago a scrape would have picked that as a bet, now it wouldn't.

Just to recap a point made to you many times over, you can do the BF v fixed odds scrape every day and you will get bets one day that are not bets another day and bets will appear each day that were not bets the day before. Your selections are simply decided by the time that you scrape the market, nothing more goes into them than that. And that's worth £200 of stakes?

Trying to understand what point you are making here. In all betting markets, pre-event some prices are going to shorten and some are going to drift. If you wait until Wednesday night (or whenever), then the market is going to adjust to whatever new info has come to light. Maybe you can find some bets are that are bigger EV closer to the event, but I can't understand why that means you shouldn't make some bets earlier that are also +EV. Doobs didn't claim this is the best use of £200 he has ever seen, but he is sure it is a +EV portfolio of bets, and it doesn't have to affect anyone having any further bets closer to the event (it isn't Tikay's case £200, at least I hope not!).

By similar logic, would you suggest not making any ante-post footy bets until transfer deadline day has passed? Yes, you will have a better idea of the strength of every team after the transfer deadline day has passed, but so will everyone else. It's obvious, but this situation just seems similar to me.