Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Seems to me that players going out late on Friday will have the best of the weather conditions on that day.  Looking at the Top Aus market Brett Rumford is the only Oz out late and the big two are out early.  He is admittedly in pretty bad form but has suddenly find his game before.  On top of this Btfr Sports book are way ool on price.  Suggest a speculative £2 ew Brett Rumford Top Aus @ 66-1.

thats easy


The Open Championship 2014

    66/1
    £134.00
    Brett Rumford
    Top Australian

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000060




by the by, isn't Adam Scott (draw, weather aside) someone we should be onside with this week?

or is it priced in that he'll be thereabouts?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/golf/article-2693922/Adam-Scott-guns-win-The-Open-Hoylake-make-Lytham-capitulation.html

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/not-to-finish-top-4

Liverpool at evens (paddy) 10/11 bald not to finish in the top 10 is a massively stale price.  You can get nearly 13/10 betfair they finish in the top 4.  If you got a spare £5k sitting around in an ISA you will get a much bigger return here in 9 months totally risk free than you will with your isa.

[horseplayer]

Was going to suggest Blackpool

The manager actually has the balls to stick to his guns and demand the players he want and was probably promised when he joins

Be amazed if he is there in September though i was shocked he was sacked by Charlton hope he gets another chance somewere

[BigAdz]

Whilst working on my Open portfolio, one name keeps popping up time after time when looking at past Opens, ability to play links etc.

Miguel Angel Jimenez.

Now I doubt that he can break his Majors duck here, but at the prices and 8 places available, he has to go in our team.

His Open record is superb. Top 30 placing for last 5+ years. Last time it was held here he was 41st after carding the joint second best First round score.

To my eyes he is playing as well as ever, despite being over 50 now, having won twice already this year, including finally winning his native Spanish Open

Whilst he never troubled the leaders this weekend, he finished pleasingly with a 69.

He is top ten in the scrambling stats, which is always nice going into a links tourny.

He is 90-1 with Betty SB with 8 places.

If I could break the habit of a lifetime, he even looks great value at 4/7 to be top senior too.

if you see this, do you want me to wait, do the first round leader bet, or get on with it?

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes.aspx

he is out Thursday afternoon, 1.30pm start

in so far as i can tell from looking around, an early start Thurs is preferred?

Hi Tighty.

I think I did mention I would be doing Jiminez as first round leader along with Karlson, but I think it favours the morning boys, so not a recommend. However I do think he represents good value for a 4 day sweat win/ew.

[DungBeetle]

To be devils advocate, I would struggle to back any team at less than 2/1 to go down from Championship.  Yes it's a very competitive league, but imo it's not that hard to cobble together a bunch of journeymen, youth prospects and loanees to get into midtable.  Watford used to do that regularly before the Pozzos arrived.

I'd rather be on the likes of Birmingham/Brentford at 4/1 or even a more adventurous Bournemouth at 14/1.

Oddschecker has the Tangerines at odds on with Skybet!  That's a lay all day surely?

[DungBeetle]

Given the potential  for general chaos unter Mr Tang I am wondering if a small speculative punt on Cardiff to go down at 40/1.  Might be dead by September of course, but any views on if this is overpriced as an outsider?

[arbboy]

To be devils advocate, I would struggle to back any team at less than 2/1 to go down from Championship.  Yes it's a very competitive league, but imo it's not that hard to cobble together a bunch of journeymen, youth prospects and loanees to get into midtable.  Watford used to do that regularly before the Pozzos arrived.

I'd rather be on the likes of Birmingham/Brentford at 4/1 or even a more adventurous Bournemouth at 14/1.

Oddschecker has the Tangerines at odds on with Skybet!  That's a lay all day surely?

Birmingham is a good shout must be close to going busto soon as the owner is in jail and the club just looks in total chaos.  Zigic is gone i assume which might be a good or bad thing given his wages crippling the club.  Hard to see where they are going to replace him with no money.

[DungBeetle]

Just looking a bit closer.  A lot of experience has left that Birmingham squad (presumably because they can't pay wages)

Ambrose, Zigic, Burke, Elliot, Mullins all gone

So far they have replaced them with Cotterill from Donny, Donaldson from Brentford and Edgar from Burnely.  They have alos picked up Gleeson from MKD after his contract expired (seem to remember him doing quite well in L1)

However all in all, doesn't look like they'll be spending much on wages any time soon.  Surprised to see them as only 6th favourite for the drop.  How Huddersfield are ranked more likely to go down is beyond me.

[arbboy]

pretty sure the owners assets are all frozen whilst he is in jail.  They were very lucky to stay up last year.  It's only the 'big club' image that makes them the price they are surely?

[DungBeetle]

yep - quite like the 4/1 compared to some of the other clubs around that mark.  I don't rate Lee Clark as a manager either.  The only redeeming feature I can think of is that they have a decent batch of youngsters, so it's possible they may have kicked on from their standard of last season.

Might have a rummage on the Birmingham City form to see what the fans' vibe is.  Normally a good indicator.

[Tal]

I'd be very surprised if blues went bust this season. Seem to have done enough to satsify the tax folk. Cut a lot off the wage bill and are making moves to find new investment. The biggest problem is the paucity of the squad and the inevitable lack of gate income with a pretty disappointed fanbase.

All the dirty linen is out on the Small Heath-Bordesley washing line for all to see. I don't believe the bookies are going to be far wrong on this one.

By all means bump this in a few months...

[arbboy]

was hoping our resident brummie would contribute!

[DungBeetle]

Well the Blues fans don't seem to be full of the joys of the new season.  Thread highlights include "Is our squad the cheapest ever in this league", "Sale of Blues dead" and "Did we do a deal with the devil to win the League Cup?"  

[arbboy]

when do the brummie EPL parac payments run out?

[TightEnd]

when do the brummie EPL parac payments run out?

this year is the last year i believe

when birmingham were relegated 3 years ago there wasa  four year parachute in place totalling £48m, of which they received £15m, £15m and £13m so far

so the remaining sum is much smaller than prior years,which together with the ongoing ownership problems accounts for the salary dump/much younger squad for 2014-15


the new system is £60m over two years as of this season coming