Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Are we expecting 8 places with some bookies?

If not, why not?

No, that is pretty much for The Open only.  You often get 1 or 2 going 6 places for standard tournaments, and sometimes you might get 7 if it is a major.   I am hopefull someone will go 7 places, but I'd bet on a max of 6 places if offered an even money bet right now.   

This isi a good place to look for offers  http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5030677

Right-ho.

Thanks.

I hope Martin does not see that thread

If you look around there are a gazillion warnings that you could lose everything you have through gambling.   It is hard to find anything that isn't hedged to make it near risk free either.  I assume that is the only way they will allow them to keep a gambing thread on that site.

Obviously all the warings weren't enough to stop some of them in the past...

[arbboy]

Martin is only worried about another first goalscorer coup nailing the mugs on there.  He is just protecting the value of his website from negative publicity.  He couldn't care less otherwise.

[doubleup]

USPGA 7th August

Betfair Sportsbook Refund if Rory or Tiger win
Up to £25

Coral Bet £10 get £10 inplay

Paying 6 places
Tote
Fred
WH
Coral

PP

WARNING WARNING WARNING

This offer will prevent you from placing any lay bets on the exchange market. 

Despite complaints about their Open offer they have done exactly the same again and hidden this in a second page of T&C,

[BigAdz]

I think we should start our PGA Portfolio with a decent  bet on Justin Rose.

He is in cracking form, but also had a tremendous record in the Ryder Cup when played at Valhalla. The course has been changed slightly since then but someone with decent course form and in the type of form Rose is in has to be in the team.

Managed to get a whole £9 ew on Paddy @20-1 but would recommend £50 ew at a general 18-1, if you can squeeze a bit out of Mr Power, it helps

[TightEnd]

I think we should start our PGA Portfolio with a decent  bet on Justin Rose.

He is in cracking form, but also had a tremendous record in the Ryder Cup when played at Valhalla. The course has been changed slightly since then but someone with decent course form and in the type of form Rose is in has to be in the team.

Managed to get a whole £9 ew on Paddy @20-1 but would recommend £50 ew at a general 18-1, if you can squeeze a bit out of Mr Power, it helps

 Your selections

USPGA Championship USPGA Championship Outright Betting
07-08-2014 12:00
Outright Betting
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5,6
Rose, Justin @ 20/1
£4.50 e/w Padraig

[TightEnd]

Outright - US PGA Championship
Tournament Outright
£25 e/w
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6    Rose, Justin    18/1    
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 612.50
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 612.50

betfred


that's £29.50 e/w

lets keep some powder dry for nearer the time. another £500 book might be right, might not be

[horseplayer]

Just seen a pr rep on twitter say the Man Utd Liverpool friendly tonight will be one of if not the biggest gambling events of the week...

Worrying!

[BigAdz]

FWIW, i literally just got an email from McBookie saying they are 7 places on PGA.

Advertising 6 places but will pay out a day later if you finish 7th.

[Chompy]

Seems like Eto'o'o isn't going to West Ham and that Poyet wants him at Sunderland.

If anyone can get more than £2.06 on, he's 8-1 with Scuy

[Doobs]

Sometimes we have to factor in that Tikay/Tighty are not pros who can sit around all day watching betfair e.t.c waiting for the place price to be correct/optimal before backing something.

That is why i always list the oddschecker link as the prices can go/change from when posting (like this morning)

When I saw the original post, my first thought was to get the better price on Betfair.  As I was trying to do this, it really wasn't in my interest to tell everybopdy else to do it.  When arbboy posted I don't think I'd been laid a single penny.  It has taken me about 4 hours to get on Spokersperson for the place.  After a bit of messing about I have finally got on at 1.95 and 1.96 for a grand total of £50.  I tried for a bigger price originally, but the price of the horse shortened so I had to drop my offer.  If anybody else had tried (maybe others did?), we'd all have had to take a bit less.  If everybody had tried to get on with Betfair, we'd be a lot closer to or under the 1.9 that you could get just by backing 9/2 each way this morning (would have been 9/10).  It really isn't going to be worth it for thread as thread pays 5% commission and would lose the best price guarantee (which may even be better than a 2% account).

On the other horse Remix I have been laid a tiny amount at 3.2 the place.  After 5% commission I think we are down nearer 3.  This is a bit better than the place terms I'd have got this morning 9/5 =2.8.  But right now it seems possible that one could drift to 10/1, so if the best price guarantee kicks in any gain I have made is likely to be small, and I have only got shrapnel on anyway.

Overall this looks very much like swings and roundabouts to me.  I have seen some pretty bad misses of Betfair prices on thread before, but don't think we could have done much better in a weak betting market on a Monday evening race meeting.  So it is always worth checking Betfair, but we didn't miss much/anything at all by not doing it here.
   

[BigAdz]

Sometimes we have to factor in that Tikay/Tighty are not pros who can sit around all day watching betfair e.t.c waiting for the place price to be correct/optimal before backing something.

That is why i always list the oddschecker link as the prices can go/change from when posting (like this morning)

When I saw the original post, my first thought was to get the better price on Betfair.  As I was trying to do this, it really wasn't in my interest to tell everybopdy else to do it.  When arbboy posted I don't think I'd been laid a single penny.  It has taken me about 4 hours to get on Spokersperson for the place.  After a bit of messing about I have finally got on at 1.95 and 1.96 for a grand total of £50.  I tried for a bigger price originally, but the price of the horse shortened so I had to drop my offer.  If anybody else had tried (maybe others did?), we'd all have had to take a bit less.  If everybody had tried to get on with Betfair, we'd be a lot closer to or under the 1.9 that you could get just by backing 9/2 each way this morning (would have been 9/10).  It really isn't going to be worth it for thread as thread pays 5% commission and would lose the best price guarantee (which may even be better than a 2% account).

On the other horse Remix I have been laid a tiny amount at 3.2 the place.  After 5% commission I think we are down nearer 3.  This is a bit better than the place terms I'd have got this morning 9/5 =2.8.  But right now it seems possible that one could drift to 10/1, so if the best price guarantee kicks in any gain I have made is likely to be small, and I have only got shrapnel on anyway.

Overall this looks very much like swings and roundabouts to me.  I have seen some pretty bad misses of Betfair prices on thread before, but don't think we could have done much better in a weak betting market on a Monday evening race meeting.  So it is always worth checking Betfair, but we didn't miss much/anything at all by not doing it here.
   

Nobody replied earlier, but what value would you put on the guaranteed odds Doobs?

If everyone has bought at roughly the right price and we don't see a horse(in general) shortening any further, it must have some value to it surely?

[arbboy]

Just because we can't get on at betfair at the right price because of bad liquidity and/or paying 5% commission doesn't mean we have to take a virtual certain negative ev place bet on bad ew terms.  I can't imagine any on course bookie not being willing to offer 1/5 123 on a 10 runner hcap which is 3/1 the field.  They would be positively shouting 'win or each way' to drum up ew bets.  There is a reason for this.  Because every single ew bet they lay will be massively in their favour and not the punters.  They are not so keen to shout 'win or each way' on certain other races.  If we think the horse is a bet at 9/1 that's great just have twice as much on the win at 9/1 and avoid giving a big % of your win edge back to the bookie by giving him the edge on the place part of the bet.

[Doobs]

Sometimes we have to factor in that Tikay/Tighty are not pros who can sit around all day watching betfair e.t.c waiting for the place price to be correct/optimal before backing something.

That is why i always list the oddschecker link as the prices can go/change from when posting (like this morning)

When I saw the original post, my first thought was to get the better price on Betfair.  As I was trying to do this, it really wasn't in my interest to tell everybopdy else to do it.  When arbboy posted I don't think I'd been laid a single penny.  It has taken me about 4 hours to get on Spokersperson for the place.  After a bit of messing about I have finally got on at 1.95 and 1.96 for a grand total of £50.  I tried for a bigger price originally, but the price of the horse shortened so I had to drop my offer.  If anybody else had tried (maybe others did?), we'd all have had to take a bit less.  If everybody had tried to get on with Betfair, we'd be a lot closer to or under the 1.9 that you could get just by backing 9/2 each way this morning (would have been 9/10).  It really isn't going to be worth it for thread as thread pays 5% commission and would lose the best price guarantee (which may even be better than a 2% account).

On the other horse Remix I have been laid a tiny amount at 3.2 the place.  After 5% commission I think we are down nearer 3.  This is a bit better than the place terms I'd have got this morning 9/5 =2.8.  But right now it seems possible that one could drift to 10/1, so if the best price guarantee kicks in any gain I have made is likely to be small, and I have only got shrapnel on anyway.

Overall this looks very much like swings and roundabouts to me.  I have seen some pretty bad misses of Betfair prices on thread before, but don't think we could have done much better in a weak betting market on a Monday evening race meeting.  So it is always worth checking Betfair, but we didn't miss much/anything at all by not doing it here.
   

Nobody replied earlier, but what value would you put on the guaranteed odds Doobs?

If everyone has bought at roughly the right price and we don't see a horse(in general) shortening any further, it must have some value to it surely?

When I was doing all that maths in betting stuff, I guessed the value of this is about 3% or so.  I haven't calculated it exactly, but the amount of times I got paid out on it seems consistent with that.  I have had some very big bonuses thoughm so I wouldn't be surprised if it was really about 5%.

On arbboy's point, I think horseplayer has made the point that in this particular race, he expects these two jockeys to try harder for 3rd than most, so conventional wisdom goes out the window.  Hence a bad each way bet can become a good one.  I really nearly did make a "shouldn't these be win only?" post but think Horsey's logic was good. 

FWIW There was one of the Goodwood tips elsewhere that was 40/1 in a bad each way race last week.  Because the horse was so big, I thought it was actually a good each way bet and not a bad one, though it was clearly a "bad" each way race.

[horseplayer]

Just because we can't get on at betfair at the right price because of bad liquidity and/or paying 5% commission doesn't mean we have to take a virtual certain negative ev place bet on bad ew terms.  I can't imagine any on course bookie not being willing to offer 1/5 123 on a 10 runner hcap which is 3/1 the field.  They would be positively shouting 'win or each way' to drum up ew bets.  There is a reason for this.  Because every single ew bet they lay will be massively in their favour and not the punters.  They are not so keen to shout 'win or each way' on certain other races.  If we think the horse is a bet at 9/1 that's great just have twice as much on the win at 9/1 and avoid giving a big % of your win edge back to the bookie by giving him the edge on the place part of the bet.

Please don't patronise me anymore

I am well aware of the shape of a bad each way race im sure whatever accounts are left will last a long time if bets suggested in those events.

I will stick to the racing thread from now on methinks

cheers

[arbboy]

Just because we can't get on at betfair at the right price because of bad liquidity and/or paying 5% commission doesn't mean we have to take a virtual certain negative ev place bet on bad ew terms.  I can't imagine any on course bookie not being willing to offer 1/5 123 on a 10 runner hcap which is 3/1 the field.  They would be positively shouting 'win or each way' to drum up ew bets.  There is a reason for this.  Because every single ew bet they lay will be massively in their favour and not the punters.  They are not so keen to shout 'win or each way' on certain other races.  If we think the horse is a bet at 9/1 that's great just have twice as much on the win at 9/1 and avoid giving a big % of your win edge back to the bookie by giving him the edge on the place part of the bet.

Please don't patronise me anymore

I am well aware of the shape of a bad each way race im sure whatever accounts are left will last a long time if bets suggested in those events.

I will stick to the racing thread from now on methinks

cheers

Not entirely sure why i am patronising anyone.  I am just stating cold hard facts.  Which of the facts which i stated do you disagree with?