Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I really, really like overs in the first game today.  Both teams need to win really so it should be fairly open and Greece have lost both of their first choice centre halves for this game.  Greece have managed to score in each of their last six games and The Czechs average 2.6 goals per game in their last 15 game so their games have goals.  I made the goals line 2.5 with overs at 5/4 so over 2.5 @ 2.58 on Betfair seems very fair to me.  Using my kelly calculator that makes this a bet of about £70 on your £3k BR.

I thought all our selections were well-reasoned yesterday, & perhaps if I had apportioned the stakes better, we might have lost less. Or more.

Worth quoting this one, though, simply because it somehow finds a logic for the bet sizing. I've no idea if I got levelled there, but it helped me a lot, not having to decide the what & why of stake size. The lofoc of the Kelly Calculator & a bet of £70 whooshes me completely, but it deffo helped.

In other cases, I mostly downsized, either with good reason, or because I'm a nit.

We coulda-woulda done a few things differently yesterday, but in essence, we needed one more bet to get home & we'd be in profit.

[tikay]

Daily Update as @ 0530, Wednesday June 13th

LOSS on Month = £319.84

Unsettled bets = £772.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

[tikay]

Daily Summary as @ 05.45am, Wednesday June 13th

We had quite a day yesterday, exclusively Euro12 action, 5 bets, 2 wins, & a loss of £70 on the day ensued.

Felt particularly for JAKALLY, on his maiden duo of recommends, beautifully argued, but both failed, the second oh so narrowly, we being on over 11.5, & the final tally being 11. No rubs for the bet author, please, this thread has great respect for Nil Giblin.

Of our Euro12 "running" bets, the only one in play was top Russian Goalscorer, Kerzhakof, who did not score.

Onwards & somethingwards. 

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Today's Euro12 acton features three teams in which we have varying degrees of interest in "outrights".....

Denmark v Portugal

Netherlands v Germany

We have Aggers for the Danes, Gomez (scored already) for Germany, & RVP for Holland. There may be others I've missed. Both look decent games to me.

Elsewhere, I believe that, weather permitting, we have both of our T20 Teams beginning their campaign in the T20 Bish-Bash-Bosh, T20 being only marginally more refined & decorous than the sight of footballers in every Euro12 Football Team doing their shameful amateur dramatics, as if shot dead, at the merest sign of physical contact. Shame on them, & EUFA for not cracking down on it.

Surrey (Karabiner) @ 15/2, & The Welsh Whatsits (Tighty) @ 33/1 share the burden of Fred's money & hopes, good luck both.

In Golf, quick reminder that the US Open starts on Thursday, & my darts are being sharpened as we speak. We won't be betting anyone big, but I love the stats type bets in these, & remember Sandy found us another beaut last week in the "no hole in one" market.  

The course (here comes my Bobby1 type deep analysis, borrowed from 3G) looks to be narrow & bendy, with up & down bits. Should, therefore, suit players with bendy shape, who can get up & down. Easy, go find us the winner.

[tikay]

I shall be offline until around mid-afternoon today, so if you have anything for tonight, please Post them up, & I'll deal with them when I return, which will likely be around 4, 4.30.

[tikay]

I've browsed through this thread because I bet on some of stuff too, really enjoyed the Croatia 7/4 bet.

Also, couldn't really understand the 4/5 'value' on Russia? I didn't think the price was neither here or there, so couldn't see the value really. The two games I've seen Poland play, they have looked pretty decent.

But just to add a tip to the thread for pretty much the first time, I've got one that is quite a way away!

MK Dons to win League One

I am confident that this time round they will win the league. They will be the only club in League One that isn't downsizing and with the near misses, this time I believe them to be the team to win the league. They are 10/1 (biggest price) with Bwin. At 6/1 is Sheffield United, they are going to struggle, there best player is in jail and there second best player is out of contract, along with this, they are skint.

MK Dons, will improve yet again.

I definitely think come August, they will be around 6's or 7's.

Thanks Aaron, & welcome from Fred.

I'll take a look at tht Dons bet in due couerse, & after our footie-types have commented.

As a matter of thread etiquette, & your comments on the Russia bet, we are aftertiming averse here, once the bet is on, we all support it. 

Thanks.   

[Graham C]

The 4/5 value on Russia was draw no bet, not an outright so was quite good value.

[pokerfan]

Goals, over 2.5, Greece v Chech. £70 @ 6/4, StanJames. redarmi. It woz the Kelly Calculator wot did it.

ON
_________________

Most Cards, Greece, £50 @ 4/5, BWin, superwomble. Logic seems spot on.

ON
________________

Corners, Greece, over 10, £100 @ 5/4, BetVictor, JAKALLY. Maiden Thread Bet, Help The Aged.

ON
_______________

Corners, Poland, over 11.5, £60 @ 31/20, BWin, JAKALLY. Can't think of any justification for this bet, except to mock him. To be fair, brilliant research & analysis.

ON
______________


Poland v Russia, Russia DNB, £50 @ 7/10, SportingBet. FRASER. Strong claims for & against this, but I thought Russia were pretty good last time, & morale is high.

ON
____________ 


NB - All bets can be "proofed" to MereAuditor.

 

Good morning.

I was AWOL last evening, so not sure I got these right, but as far as I can see, in above order......

Bet 1 = WINNER, = £175 return, £105 PROFIT

Bet 2 = LOSE = £50 LOSS

Bet 3 = LOSE = £100 LOSS

Bet 4 = LOSE = £60 LOSS

Bet 5 = WIN = £85 return = £35 PROFIT

Spend = £330 - Return = £260 = LOSS £70

Bet 5 is stake back Mr K.

[tikay]

Whoops, yes, of course. Must not post before morning latte.

Bugger.

[superwomble]

Milton Keynes Scum to win League One could be one of the worst bets ever. Not only is it not very likely but you will find yourself in the nasty position of wanting the pariahs of English football to win games.

As for them being the only team not to be downsizing, this seems unlikely. They are losing money hand over fist and have to sell their best players to survive. They will not win the division.

[TightEnd]

I am acquainted with several people at Leicester City football club

One of whom, during a conversation I had a week or so ago, said to me

"David Moyes is going to be the next Spurs manager"

How does he know this?

Moyes told a Leicester City player, who is his next door neighbour in Preston, on Millionaires row. Moyes house for sale

I sort of ignored this as something that could happen some time away...but then the Redknapp rumours started

As soon as Redknapp goes, if he does go, check the new manager markets people.



 

[Girgy85]

I am acquainted with several people at Leicester City football club

One of whom, during a conversation I had a week or so ago, said to me

"David Moyes is going to be the next Spurs manager"

How does he know this?

Moyes told a Leicester City player, who is his next door neighbour in Preston, on Millionaires row. Moyes house for sale

I sort of ignored this as something that could happen some time away...but then the Redknapp rumours started

As soon as Redknapp goes, if he does go, check the new manager markets people.

Why would a Leicester player live in Preston?

And come on heskey get yer finger out and siggggggn!

[TightEnd]

I've browsed through this thread because I bet on some of stuff too, really enjoyed the Croatia 7/4 bet.

Also, couldn't really understand the 4/5 'value' on Russia? I didn't think the price was neither here or there, so couldn't see the value really. The two games I've seen Poland play, they have looked pretty decent.

But just to add a tip to the thread for pretty much the first time, I've got one that is quite a way away!

MK Dons to win League One

I am confident that this time round they will win the league. They will be the only club in League One that isn't downsizing and with the near misses, this time I believe them to be the team to win the league. They are 10/1 (biggest price) with Bwin. At 6/1 is Sheffield United, they are going to struggle, there best player is in jail and there second best player is out of contract, along with this, they are skint.

MK Dons, will improve yet again.

I definitely think come August, they will be around 6's or 7's.

Would be very cautious on this

Personally this far ante-post 10-1 doesn't strike me as that appealing when the upside of waiting is maybe losing 2 or 3 points

Its not like you think they are 66-1 and should be 20-1

Yes it looks an easier division this time round but the likes of Coventry, Notts County, Swindon, Crawley etc are all capable of being right up there...Sheff U and Portsmouth might be struggling financially, but are obviously big fish in the pond too

MKD could lose Robinson the manager at any time, and Daniel Powell is destined for bigger things too

Wait and see.  

[TightEnd]

I am acquainted with several people at Leicester City football club

One of whom, during a conversation I had a week or so ago, said to me

"David Moyes is going to be the next Spurs manager"

How does he know this?

Moyes told a Leicester City player, who is his next door neighbour in Preston, on Millionaires row. Moyes house for sale

I sort of ignored this as something that could happen some time away...but then the Redknapp rumours started

As soon as Redknapp goes, if he does go, check the new manager markets people.

Why would a Leicester player live in Preston?

And come on heskey get yer finger out and siggggggn!

He never moved down after signing from a team north of Manchester

Four Leicester players live in the area and commute, sharing the driving.

[Girgy85]

I am acquainted with several people at Leicester City football club

One of whom, during a conversation I had a week or so ago, said to me

"David Moyes is going to be the next Spurs manager"

How does he know this?

Moyes told a Leicester City player, who is his next door neighbour in Preston, on Millionaires row. Moyes house for sale

I sort of ignored this as something that could happen some time away...but then the Redknapp rumours started

As soon as Redknapp goes, if he does go, check the new manager markets people.

Why would a Leicester player live in Preston?

And come on heskey get yer finger out and siggggggn!

He never moved down after signing from a team north of Manchester

Four Leicester players live in the area and commute, sharing the driving.

St ledger? Gallagher?