Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Whilst on the subject of tipsters......

In what must be almost unique, I've barely ever seen a single negative comment about "Pricewise", aka Tom Segal, I gather.

He moves markets, people regularly tip his stuff, & we see, time & time again, "ooh, Pricewise has tipped it, must be good".

Is he really that good? Do we have genuine P & L figures for him?

If he is as good as most seem to think, why don't we all pack up work & just back his stuff blind?

I would not swap the portfolio of tipsters, excellence, & specialist knowledge of the guys we have on Fred, but its rare to see someone in the public eye who is so universally revered. Even the usual schadenfreude types seem to leave him alone. A rare beast indeed.   

Best not check twitter for his name!

Well that's pretty standard, it's almost as bad as FB for being a platform for that sort of stuff. Can't say I'd ever be much swayed by many of the sheep on social-media.

I just looked him up, but could not find him, though there are scores of similar variations.  Fair to say, I'm hopeless at utilising Twitter. Tighty, who swears by it & gets a great deal from it, tried to show me whilst we spent most of last week @ UKPC. I still can't quite grasp how to best use it. The day I stop working, I'll never visit a Social-Media site again.

[Doobs]

Hills are top priced Cavalryman at 5/2 in the 2.30.  Suggest we put £25 on it on the mobile. 

Hopefully this will work out a bit better than yesterday's mauling.

[tikay]

Hills are top priced Cavalryman at 5/2 in the 2.30.  Suggest we put £25 on it on the mobile. 

Hopefully this will work out a bit better than yesterday's mauling.

Rumour reaches me that Tighty is sharpening his pen as we speak. Should be an epic DR.

[Doobs]

I think we need to be quick, but think we should have £25 e/w on High Jinx in the 2.30 at York at 11/1 with Koral.  Even 10/1 must be good. 

It hasn't run much this season, but had kept away from most of these.  It is 6, do shouldn't be improving so may find one or two too good.   I backed it on the machine last night as I thought this was a crisp each way race, but Korals are offering quarter first 3 which is very good.  Place terms are now exceptional here.

Guess well only get a tenner each way but try for 25.

[tikay]

I think we need to be quick, but think we should have £25 e/w on High Jinx in the 2.30 at York at 11/1 with Koral.  Even 10/1 must be good.  

It hasn't run much this season, but had kept away from most of these.  It is 6, do shouldn't be improving so may find one or two too good.   I backed it on the machine last night as I thought this was a crisp each way race, but Korals are offering quarter first 3 which is very good.  Place terms are now exceptional here.

Guess well only get a tenner each way but try for 25.

Thanks.

Think Tighty is still writing his "mauling" DR, so I've done that before the price goes.

Remarkably, we were not Restricted. Perhaps the cleaners have yet to arrive for work.


High Jinx11/12:30 York - 22/08/2014


Each Way

Stake £50.00

Estimated Return:£393.75

BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £619.24

Outstanding Bets £3903.31

Free bets to use one £25 William hill deadline 28th Aug

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

A loss of £122 yesterday

- A winner. Oh yes. They do exist. Viking Jack, at Monmore for +£56. This is the win last night



- Losers. They certainly exist

- £30 Kool Kompany. Group horse in a sales race. Losing group horse in a sales race

- £25 Anthem Alexander

- £2.50 Cursory Glance, e/w 2nd at 3/1. Looks a 1000 guineas horse

- £25 Taghrooda at 1/4. This was simply tremendous news as not only did we watch ryan moore sit up its backside for seven furlongs and go past it, but we then had to listen to another listen listen.

Click to see full-size image.

After the race, one pundit proclaimed "Another poor piece of placing. Absolutely nothing to gain by running today. Blown the Arc now" which presumably he wouldn't have said if she had won

the jockey said "I don't think there were many excuses, we just got beaten by a very good horse"

we can put it in the "Watford book of short-priced misfortunes"

-£50 geelo vegas beaten a short head at Monmore at a price several notches below the placed price. The equivalent of having Kings against AQ all-in pre for the lot and getting rivered by an Ace. By someone Ginger.



So, ongoing positions

Kent will play Gloucestershire in the quarter-finals of the One day cup. Kent avoided Essex, and will be favourites to progress at home. All on Gloucestershire then

At the beginning of the Tigers/Rays match last night there was a seemingly innocuous fielding error by the Tgers that allowed the Rays to go 1 up. The star pitcher David Price, for whom the tigers traded for from the Rays, then threw a one hitter and the error was the only run the Rays scored. Hwever, the Tigers remained scoreless, lost 1-0 and fell 1.5 games behind the Royals in the AL Central

Click to see full-size image.

The Yankees beat the Astros 3-0 in the East, the Orioles did not play

Belgian GP practice starts at 8.55am today.

Click to see full-size image.

T20 finals day tomorrow. I am told Sid the Shark of Sssex is favourite for the mascots race. Been in training. Now to find a market



 

[TightEnd]

Evening Mr T.

I have been eagerly awaiting the draw for the US open as I had a player I wanted to back but it was dependent on him avoiding Federer. There are huge question marks over many of the possible winners of this tournament. Injuries, illnesses, marriages and form all have a bearing. Personally I would make Federer favourite for this as Djokovic got married after Wimbledon, where I thought he was lucky to beat Dimitrov and Federer, and I have read about him messing about on the practice courts ever since. At 3-1 Federer makes little appeal. I am going to have a watching brief on Dimitrov until the 2nd week as he is going to have a plan more cunning than Baldrick ever had to explain his last 3 weeks. I have to overlook Murray yet again and will do so until he stops serving like a girl.

The person I want to suggest we back is Raonic. He has a very limited game- a huge serve, and a massive forehand. Often his game plan is to get to a tie break and hope his serve holds up better than the opposition and generally it does. He has been consistently beating all the lesser players with ease and should comfortably get to the 1/4 final and I would not be surprised if Wawrinka got knocked out before then.

The purist in me will be quite happy should he lose to Federer in the final as he has no backhand to speak of but the e/w odds we get if he gets to the final are decent.

Suggest £10 e/w Raonic @ 40-1 with Paddy Power.

I PM'ed the bet to Tighty earlier as the 40-1 was so much better than anything else. It is now 35-1 but I think it is a bet down to 20-1.

I had advance notice of this, and pressed max at our unco-operative friends in Dublin

the answer came back £8.18 e/w at 40-1 e/w 1/2 1,2

they then dropped the rpice




by the by, did anyone see the Interview with the Sole Power trainer yesterday? not exactly effusive, saying they've had him sharper for other races...

Paddy Power the non-bookmaker are top price the Power's own horse in the nunthorpe, which i thought was interesting....

[Peter-27]

Recommendations - with justification:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 12/5 - £5, don't accept lower than 11/5. As per usual, the race is really only between Hamilton & Rosberg. Anything above evens is good value so 12/5 is great if you can get it. 11/5 is worth taking also.

Paddy Power
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 4/1 - £5. It's quite possible that the Mercedes powered cars could lock out the top eight places on a track like Spa where power is so important. Even if this isn't the case, Force India will have an advantage because of their engine, and that should propel them forward. 4/1 is a crazy price on Perez to reach to the 6!

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 2/1 - £5. Same reasons as Sergio Perez really. I do feel like Jenson Button has an edge given his experience and given how crazy races at Belgium can be - that's the only reason why I would recommend this at 2/1 - hold off on this bet until after today's practice sessions though - let me see what happens today.

Dual Forecast: Bottas & Rosberg @ 20/1 - £1. If Hamilton retires, this is the most likely result. I can't help but feel 20/1 is too high. Bottas & Hamilton is 10/1 - don't really understand why they would have a 10/1 difference between Hamilton retiring and Rosberg retiring. Value!

[typhoon13]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £619.24

Outstanding Bets £3903.31

Free bets to use one £25 William hill deadline 28th Aug

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

A loss of £122 yesterday

- A winner. Oh yes. They do exist. Viking Jack, at Monmore for +£56. This is the win last night



- Losers. They certainly exist

- £30 Kool Kompany. Group horse in a sales race. Losing group horse in a sales race

- £25 Anthem Alexander

- £2.50 Cursory Glance, e/w 2nd at 3/1. Looks a 1000 guineas horse

- £25 Taghrooda at 1/4. This was simply tremendous news as not only did we watch ryan moore sit up its backside for seven furlongs and go past it, but we then had to listen to another listen listen.

Click to see full-size image.

After the race, one pundit proclaimed "Another poor piece of placing. Absolutely nothing to gain by running today. Blown the Arc now" which presumably he wouldn't have said if she had won

the jockey said "I don't think there were many excuses, we just got beaten by a very good horse"

we can put it in the "Watford book of short-priced misfortunes"

-£50 geelo vegas beaten a short head at Monmore at a price several notches below the placed price. The equivalent of having Kings against AQ all-in pre for the lot and getting rivered by an Ace. By someone Ginger.



So, ongoing positions

Kent will play Gloucestershire in the quarter-finals of the One day cup. Kent avoided Essex, and will be favourites to progress at home. All on Gloucestershire then

At the beginning of the Tigers/Rays match last night there was a seemingly innocuous fielding error by the Tgers that allowed the Rays to go 1 up. The star pitcher David Price, for whom the tigers traded for from the Rays, then threw a one hitter and the error was the only run the Rays scored. Hwever, the Tigers remained scoreless, lost 1-0 and fell 1.5 games behind the Royals in the AL Central

Click to see full-size image.

The Yankees beat the Astros 3-0 in the East, the Orioles did not play

Belgian GP practice starts at 8.55am today.

Click to see full-size image.

T20 finals day tomorrow. I am told Sid the Shark of Sssex is favourite for the mascots race. Been in training. Now to find a market



 

 Listen too good Rich too good

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

I have been eagerly awaiting the draw for the US open as I had a player I wanted to back but it was dependent on him avoiding Federer. There are huge question marks over many of the possible winners of this tournament. Injuries, illnesses, marriages and form all have a bearing. Personally I would make Federer favourite for this as Djokovic got married after Wimbledon, where I thought he was lucky to beat Dimitrov and Federer, and I have read about him messing about on the practice courts ever since. At 3-1 Federer makes little appeal. I am going to have a watching brief on Dimitrov until the 2nd week as he is going to have a plan more cunning than Baldrick ever had to explain his last 3 weeks. I have to overlook Murray yet again and will do so until he stops serving like a girl.

The person I want to suggest we back is Raonic. He has a very limited game- a huge serve, and a massive forehand. Often his game plan is to get to a tie break and hope his serve holds up better than the opposition and generally it does. He has been consistently beating all the lesser players with ease and should comfortably get to the 1/4 final and I would not be surprised if Wawrinka got knocked out before then.

The purist in me will be quite happy should he lose to Federer in the final as he has no backhand to speak of but the e/w odds we get if he gets to the final are decent.

Suggest £10 e/w Raonic @ 40-1 with Paddy Power.

I PM'ed the bet to Tighty earlier as the 40-1 was so much better than anything else. It is now 35-1 but I think it is a bet down to 20-1.

I had advance notice of this, and pressed max at our unco-operative friends in Dublin

the answer came back £8.18 e/w at 40-1 e/w 1/2 1,2

they then dropped the rpice




by the by, did anyone see the Interview with the Sole Power trainer yesterday? not exactly effusive, saying they've had him sharper for other races...

Paddy Power the non-bookmaker are top price the Power's own horse in the nunthorpe, which i thought was interesting....

So are we on, Tighty? Sorry, I'm a little unclear what we did.

[BigAdz]

Excellent write up Tighty. Glad I moved my stuff away from that Tighty morning after appraisal! Wonderful stuff!

I like to back the fox in the mascot races, normally a less cumbersome outfit!

[TightEnd]

Surrey v Warwickshire (or Birmingham if we're being pedantic) in the first T20 semi final.  Should be a close game but one bet stands out for me - Surrey most runs 1st 6 overs http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/surrey-v-warwickshire/highest-first-6-overs

2 very different approaches, Warwickshire's big hitters (Evans, Clarke, Patel) come in lower down the order whereas Surrey put theirs up front.  My guess is Surrey will go with a top 3 of Roy, Davies & Pieterson, Warwickshire have Chopra, Porterfield & (probably) Trott.  Since Carter left a couple of years ago, I'd love to see a statistic on the number of times Warwickshire have outscored their opponents in the first 6 overs - I guarantee it's less than 50% since they simply don't have the players to do it - instead they like to build a platform early on (and it's working so they won't change it up for finals day).  Given Surrey are one of the more aggressive teams up front, I find it hard to make Surrey less than a 60% shot on this market.  Obviously depends a lot on the bowling and early wickets going down.  Looks like all the bookies have copied each other (shock) and priced Surrey at 1.8, which is very generous in my eyes

As an aside I actually expect Bell or Trott to get left out for Warwickshire -  In Evans, Chopra & Porterfield they already have 3 batsmen who can't bowl so I just don't see how they can fit 2 more in the team unless you use Trott as the backup 6th bowler (which I'm sure they won't).  Sadly I can't really see a way of cashing in on this though

you didn't say how much, but the rationale looks good. surrey' strength definitely top 3, and Warw-Birmingham definitely nurdle up top

 Surrey v Birmingham Bears Surrey (Highest Score - First 6 Overs - Match) Odds: 4/5 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  54.00

[TightEnd]

Evening Mr T.

I have been eagerly awaiting the draw for the US open as I had a player I wanted to back but it was dependent on him avoiding Federer. There are huge question marks over many of the possible winners of this tournament. Injuries, illnesses, marriages and form all have a bearing. Personally I would make Federer favourite for this as Djokovic got married after Wimbledon, where I thought he was lucky to beat Dimitrov and Federer, and I have read about him messing about on the practice courts ever since. At 3-1 Federer makes little appeal. I am going to have a watching brief on Dimitrov until the 2nd week as he is going to have a plan more cunning than Baldrick ever had to explain his last 3 weeks. I have to overlook Murray yet again and will do so until he stops serving like a girl.

The person I want to suggest we back is Raonic. He has a very limited game- a huge serve, and a massive forehand. Often his game plan is to get to a tie break and hope his serve holds up better than the opposition and generally it does. He has been consistently beating all the lesser players with ease and should comfortably get to the 1/4 final and I would not be surprised if Wawrinka got knocked out before then.

The purist in me will be quite happy should he lose to Federer in the final as he has no backhand to speak of but the e/w odds we get if he gets to the final are decent.

Suggest £10 e/w Raonic @ 40-1 with Paddy Power.

I PM'ed the bet to Tighty earlier as the 40-1 was so much better than anything else. It is now 35-1 but I think it is a bet down to 20-1.

I had advance notice of this, and pressed max at our unco-operative friends in Dublin

the answer came back £8.18 e/w at 40-1 e/w 1/2 1,2

they then dropped the rpice




by the by, did anyone see the Interview with the Sole Power trainer yesterday? not exactly effusive, saying they've had him sharper for other races...

Paddy Power the non-bookmaker are top price the Power's own horse in the nunthorpe, which i thought was interesting....

So are we on, Tighty? Sorry, I'm a little unclear what we did.

yes we are on £8.18 e/w

[Doobs]

Recommendations - with justification:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 12/5 - £5, don't accept lower than 11/5. As per usual, the race is really only between Hamilton & Rosberg. Anything above evens is good value so 12/5 is great if you can get it. 11/5 is worth taking also.

Paddy Power
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 4/1 - £5. It's quite possible that the Mercedes powered cars could lock out the top eight places on a track like Spa where power is so important. Even if this isn't the case, Force India will have an advantage because of their engine, and that should propel them forward. 4/1 is a crazy price on Perez to reach to the 6!

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 2/1 - £5. Same reasons as Sergio Perez really. I do feel like Jenson Button has an edge given his experience and given how crazy races at Belgium can be - that's the only reason why I would recommend this at 2/1 - hold off on this bet until after today's practice sessions though - let me see what happens today.

Dual Forecast: Bottas & Rosberg @ 20/1 - £1. If Hamilton retires, this is the most likely result. I can't help but feel 20/1 is too high. Bottas & Hamilton is 10/1 - don't really understand why they would have a 10/1 difference between Hamilton retiring and Rosberg retiring. Value!

I like the last one a lot, where is it please?

Edit guess it was Hills then. 9 am practice start.  Am awfully thick this morning.  Apologies for my stupidity everywhere.

[Peter-27]

Recommendations - with justification:

Betfair
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 12/5 - £5, don't accept lower than 11/5. As per usual, the race is really only between Hamilton & Rosberg. Anything above evens is good value so 12/5 is great if you can get it. 11/5 is worth taking also.

Paddy Power
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 4/1 - £5. It's quite possible that the Mercedes powered cars could lock out the top eight places on a track like Spa where power is so important. Even if this isn't the case, Force India will have an advantage because of their engine, and that should propel them forward. 4/1 is a crazy price on Perez to reach to the 6!

William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 2/1 - £5. Same reasons as Sergio Perez really. I do feel like Jenson Button has an edge given his experience and given how crazy races at Belgium can be - that's the only reason why I would recommend this at 2/1 - hold off on this bet until after today's practice sessions though - let me see what happens today.

Dual Forecast: Bottas & Rosberg @ 20/1 - £1. If Hamilton retires, this is the most likely result. I can't help but feel 20/1 is too high. Bottas & Hamilton is 10/1 - don't really understand why they would have a 10/1 difference between Hamilton retiring and Rosberg retiring. Value!