Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Whoever normally hoovers the prices is obviously asleep managed to get on thanks cws and at better odds on some of them

thanks for the post

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

Really think there are some ricks in this market.  40-45% and 45-50% coupled are around the even money mark coupled.  Given the Yes vote (>50% of the votes) is an 11/2 shot in the outright market.  In this market the 50-55% and >55% coupled come to roughly 9/4 therefore i am looking at the other bands for potential value and find it hard to believe this vote won't be close even though No is a big fav.

I think 40-45% and 45-50% coupled just under even money must be close to a max bet.  Surely it's very hard for this vote to fall much below 40%.  Thoughts welcome from the political judges out there.  If i was to pick one of the bands alone i think 45-50% at 7/2 at ladbrokes is the stand out value.

i would have thought 40-50% was a very reasonable expectation

closing up in the run up to the vote to make 7/2 45-49.9% look v interesting but coming from too far back to win it

yesterday, Salmond is reckoned to have conclusively won the debate, but not a lot of change in prices by this morning ...



i only followed it by twitter, MNF the bigger attraction, so not a lot to say on last night's debate except second hand knowledge

[arbboy]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

[simonnatur]

3.25 Epsom Links Drive Lady  13/2 B365 (4/1 offer race)  I thought her second to Forest Edge last time out, who has since gone on to score again in a better race, reads pretty well in this admittedly trappy race.  Obviously will love conditions.

looks like price might be going so will have to be quick but I can get say £20 on for Fred with B356 and pass on the value of the 4/1 offer should she oblige.

edit: fav at time of writing now non-runner, so wouldnt take much to go off sub 4-1 reducing value from offer - maybe leave it

Going to need big flippers at Epsom today

Card full of N/Rs

so simon you need to let me know if you want this placing or not

I think we should leave it because there is greater doubt that the 4-1 offer will apply (less headroom for the price to shorten and invalidate the offer)

[tikay]

He hit me, he hit me........

[tikay]

Meanwhile, I can't sleep worrying about that tracksuit bottom. And that double back to back homer.

[horseplayer]

Nice cycling link

http://premierspor.com/video1.php

The commentators are suggesting that the sprinters have no chance and sound surprised, cms wasnt

[horseplayer]

er i heard both the Martins mentioned with 300 yards to go

and then someone else won

great shout though

[cheapwetsuit]

er i heard both the Martins mentioned with 300 yards to go

and then someone else won

great shout though

How disappointing. Didn't unfold as I thought it might. Favourite won for the third day in a row. I get the feeling that this Vuelta could end up being very anti-climactic. Still fun to watch though (he says as his autobet status is revoked).

[Tal]

er i heard both the Martins mentioned with 300 yards to go

and then someone else won

great shout though

How disappointing. Didn't unfold as I thought it might. Favourite won for the third day in a row. I get the feeling that this Vuelta could end up being very anti-climactic. Still fun to watch though (he says as his autobet status is revoked).

Yeah, back in the peloton, CWS.

[Teacake]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

Really think there are some ricks in this market.  40-45% and 45-50% coupled are around the even money mark coupled.  Given the Yes vote (>50% of the votes) is an 11/2 shot in the outright market.  In this market the 50-55% and >55% coupled come to roughly 9/4 therefore i am looking at the other bands for potential value and find it hard to believe this vote won't be close even though No is a big fav.

I think 40-45% and 45-50% coupled just under even money must be close to a max bet.  Surely it's very hard for this vote to fall much below 40%.  Thoughts welcome from the political judges out there.  If i was to pick one of the bands alone i think 45-50% at 7/2 at ladbrokes is the stand out value.

Yeah pretty much agree with that, I backed over 42.5% at 11/10 yesterday morning. Was happy to give up 2.5% at the bottom end as I only see the momentum going one way. I'd be astonished if No polled 57.5% or higher.

[Marky147]

er i heard both the Martins mentioned with 300 yards to go

and then someone else won

great shout though

How disappointing. Didn't unfold as I thought it might. Favourite won for the third day in a row. I get the feeling that this Vuelta could end up being very anti-climactic. Still fun to watch though (he says as his autobet status is revoked).

Think you've got a long way to go before that happens, especially given the work you put into every recommend!

[Teacake]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Nah, he tried the conversational approach in the first debate and lost it, he was very much on the front foot and had Darling floundering for most of the debate albeit it got a bit shouty in the middle. Also it was Darling doing the finger pointing and "him" and "he" references. It's hugely emotive so there's always going to be an element of that.

[Kmac84]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down. 

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation. 

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority. 

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes. 

[Mark_Porter]

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority. 

Why is the opinion of the bookmakers so different to yours? Yes is a big outsider.