Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down.  

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation.  

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority.  

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes.  

Assume you will be shortly posting an maximum bet recommendation for Tikay to place at 6/1 on Yes then if you are so bullish.  Copy your betting slip in as well to show me how much of this 'free money' you are planning to hoover if you don't mind as well to back up your confident talk.

[Kmac84]

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority. 

Why is the opinion of the bookmakers so different to yours? Yes is a big outsider.

Because the bookmakers aren't out on the streets every other day talking to people and convincing them that a yes vote is the only real alternative if they want change.   

[Kmac84]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down.  

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation.  

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority.  

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes.  

Assume you will be shortly posting an maximum bet recommendation for Tikay to place at 6/1 on Yes then if you are so bullish.  Copy your betting slip in as well to show me how much of this 'free money' you are planning to hoover if you don't mind as well to back up your confident talk.

I was on yes at prices as big as 14/1.   In order for the bet to get through here it has to be agreed by Tighty and he is taking the line of the official polling companies.  So it would be a waste of time recomending it.   

[McGlashan]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down.  

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation.  

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority.  

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes.  

Assume you will be shortly posting an maximum bet recommendation for Tikay to place at 6/1 on Yes then if you are so bullish.  Copy your betting slip in as well to show me how much of this 'free money' you are planning to hoover if you don't mind as well to back up your confident talk.

I was on yes at prices as big as 14/1.   In order for the bet to get through here it has to be agreed by Tighty and he is taking the line of the official polling companies.  So it would be a waste of time recomending it.   

Arboy rec'd backing 40-50% and Kmac >50%, aren't you both on a similar wave length in implying the over/under line of 42.5 is too low?

[Omm]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down.  

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation.  

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority.  

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes.  

Assume you will be shortly posting an maximum bet recommendation for Tikay to place at 6/1 on Yes then if you are so bullish.  Copy your betting slip in as well to show me how much of this 'free money' you are planning to hoover if you don't mind as well to back up your confident talk.

I was on yes at prices as big as 14/1.   In order for the bet to get through here it has to be agreed by Tighty and he is taking the line of the official polling companies.  So it would be a waste of time recomending it.   

Tighty will never poo poo a value bet if it's got support no matter what his personal opinions are (I'm pretty sure) problem is I'm not sure if anyone or the elders would support your recommend, although you could put up a CWS style post (although I think u would have to take out your emotion). I for one would bet it if it was value, even if Fred said no.

[Kmac84]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down.  

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation.  

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority.  

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes.  

Assume you will be shortly posting an maximum bet recommendation for Tikay to place at 6/1 on Yes then if you are so bullish.  Copy your betting slip in as well to show me how much of this 'free money' you are planning to hoover if you don't mind as well to back up your confident talk.

I was on yes at prices as big as 14/1.   In order for the bet to get through here it has to be agreed by Tighty and he is taking the line of the official polling companies.  So it would be a waste of time recomending it.   

Tighty will never poo poo a value bet if it's got support no matter what his personal opinions are (I'm pretty sure) problem is I'm not sure if anyone or the elders would support your recommend, although you could put up a CWS style post (although I think u would have to take out your emotion). I for one would bet it if it was value, even if Fred said no.

The problem is, I can't take out my emotion.  This is the bggest decision that will ever be made in my lifetime.  It sickens me to think that there are people out there still who would vote against their own sovereignty and vote out of fear. 

[arbboy]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down.  

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation.  

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority.  

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes.  

Assume you will be shortly posting an maximum bet recommendation for Tikay to place at 6/1 on Yes then if you are so bullish.  Copy your betting slip in as well to show me how much of this 'free money' you are planning to hoover if you don't mind as well to back up your confident talk.

I was on yes at prices as big as 14/1.   In order for the bet to get through here it has to be agreed by Tighty and he is taking the line of the official polling companies.  So it would be a waste of time recomending it.  

Arboy rec'd backing 40-50% and Kmac >50%, aren't you both on a similar wave length in implying the over/under line of 42.5 is too low?

Yes in a certain way i just think the voting will be right around the mid point and its distribution of %'s in the prices does not reflect how tight the likely voting % will be around 45%ish.  I just think all the hype guys forget the reality of 'better the devil you know' when punters actually get to the polling booth and have to tick the box.  People, especially jocks, are generally risk averse in most important issues affecting themselves and their families and talk a good game about change but when the shit hits the fan and they have to press the button they choose to stay with what they know and less risk.

[Omm]

I don't think he won the debate.  I think he shouted constantly over Darling and just said what the masses wanted to hear without giving any real answers on the key issues.

Has to be an attempt at the level.  Darling started the shouting, pointing and hysterics and Salmond reacted in the only way he could otherwise he faced being shouted down.  

Salmond was a clear winner, more substance more common sense and more passion.  As was stated one man was fighting for a job the other a nation.  

Throwing money away backing anything else than a yes majority.  

The snap poll from last night showed 71% thought Salmond won and a 12% swing from undecided to yes.  

Assume you will be shortly posting an maximum bet recommendation for Tikay to place at 6/1 on Yes then if you are so bullish.  Copy your betting slip in as well to show me how much of this 'free money' you are planning to hoover if you don't mind as well to back up your confident talk.

I was on yes at prices as big as 14/1.   In order for the bet to get through here it has to be agreed by Tighty and he is taking the line of the official polling companies.  So it would be a waste of time recomending it.   

Tighty will never poo poo a value bet if it's got support no matter what his personal opinions are (I'm pretty sure) problem is I'm not sure if anyone or the elders would support your recommend, although you could put up a CWS style post (although I think u would have to take out your emotion). I for one would bet it if it was value, even if Fred said no.

The problem is, I can't take out my emotion.  This is the bggest decision that will ever be made in my lifetime.  It sickens me to think that there are people out there still who would vote against their own sovereignty and vote out of fear. 

Certainly means a lot to you and the outcome of a bet is not even on the planet compared to the outcome of the vote, good luck, hope you get everything you want.

[horseplayer]

Tbf to Kmac he was banging the drum for YES when it was double and bigger the current price

The very essence of the thread, gd lk Kmac

[ripple11]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage

Really think there are some ricks in this market.  40-45% and 45-50% coupled are around the even money mark coupled.  Given the Yes vote (>50% of the votes) is an 11/2 shot in the outright market.  In this market the 50-55% and >55% coupled come to roughly 9/4 therefore i am looking at the other bands for potential value and find it hard to believe this vote won't be close even though No is a big fav.

I think 40-45% and 45-50% coupled just under even money must be close to a max bet.  Surely it's very hard for this vote to fall much below 40%.  Thoughts welcome from the political judges out there.  If i was to pick one of the bands alone i think 45-50% at 7/2 at ladbrokes is the stand out value.

If you take out the don't knows (about 11%), the Yes vote poll early 40%'s.

 Think the % will be nearer 40 than 50....but yes max bet 40-50%

[arbboy]

I mean Victor has got 5/1 over 54% when u can get 6/1 in the main market for over 50%.  Who on earth would take that 5/1?  Should probably be closer to a 16/1 shot.

Likewise under 29% is 16/1 at Ladbrokes.  This must be close to a 100/1+ chance unless something incredibly drastic happens in the next two weeks.

This is my point overall that the prices for each band are correctly ranked in terms of who is fav but the odds attached to them are massively wrong at the extremes (too short) and the most likely bands are much more likely to occur imo than the betting odds suggest.

[exstream]

Berdych 3-0 against Hewitt

Should be straight forward, Berdych has only dropped 9 games in the last 5 matches in the first round of grand slams and Hewitt hasn't won a match in any grand slam for 4 years now

Form is all with Berdych as well, the last 3 weeks his 1st serves have been averaging just 7mph less than the world record fastest serve, and returning isn't one of Hewitt's strengths anyway.

Berdych just needs to find a single break each set and the way Hewitt has been playing shouldn't be hard for him, even Fognini breezed past Hewitt in his last match.

Best odds exchange
£3000

[arbboy]

have no opinion on the match but your stats on hewitt in slams are massively wrong in the last 4 years.  He got to the 4th round of the us open last year according to wiki and has won 11 grand slam matches since 2011.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lleyton_Hewitt

If there was one person a decent ranked seed wouldn't want to face in a 1st round of a slam would surely be Hewitt who is all action, leave it all on the court type in every match.  He must have been involved in more 5 set matches in his career in slams than most players in the last 15 years.

[horseplayer]

Berdych 3-0 against Hewitt

Should be straight forward, Berdych has only dropped 9 games in the last 5 matches in the first round of grand slams and Hewitt hasn't won a match in any grand slam for 4 years now

Form is all with Berdych as well, the last 3 weeks his 1st serves have been averaging just 7mph less than the world record fastest serve, and returning isn't one of Hewitt's strengths anyway.

Berdych just needs to find a single break each set and the way Hewitt has been playing shouldn't be hard for him, even Fognini breezed past Hewitt in his last match.

Best odds exchange
£3000

bwin look a bit out of line for 3-0?

gd lk one of the best records on fred without doubt no messing here

[exstream]

have no opinion on the match but your stats on hewitt in slams are massively wrong in the last 4 years.  He got to the 4th round of the us open last year according to wiki and has won 11 grand slam matches since 2011.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lleyton_Hewitt

If there was one person a decent ranked seed wouldn't want to face in a 1st round of a slam would surely be Hewitt who is all action, leave it all on the court type in every match.  He must have been involved in more 5 set matches in his career in slams than most players in the last 15 years.

Lol, person who told me that stat has made me look a fool!

Berdych 3-0 against Hewitt

Should be straight forward, Berdych has only dropped 9 games in the last 5 matches in the first round of grand slams and Hewitt hasn't won a match in any grand slam for 4 years now

Form is all with Berdych as well, the last 3 weeks his 1st serves have been averaging just 7mph less than the world record fastest serve, and returning isn't one of Hewitt's strengths anyway.

Berdych just needs to find a single break each set and the way Hewitt has been playing shouldn't be hard for him, even Fognini breezed past Hewitt in his last match.

Best odds exchange
£3000

bwin look a bit out of line for 3-0?

gd lk one of the best records on fred without doubt no messing here

£3000 may mean £30*

Bwin beats beatfair.