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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13413169 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #87390 on: September 20, 2014, 11:42:28 PM »

Akister FTW!
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vegaslover
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« Reply #87391 on: September 20, 2014, 11:44:58 PM »

I think Southampton are at risk of being overrated.

They have beaten a very poor Newcastle side and an injury hit West Ham side pre Song/Valencia. They were certainly second best today when Swansea had 11 men on the pitch before taking control after the sending off.

They have a trip to Arsenal this week in the cup - Koeman has said he wants to take this competition seriously as the team is still gelling. I wouldn't expect 11 changes.

QPR then visit next Saturday and are 15/2 best price at the moment. They have the week off with no cup game. 15/2 seems a touch big to me. Haven't seen much of QPR really so don't feel confident recc'ing it but am interested to see where the price goes over the week.

Love the reasoning on the Saints. Only Caveat on QPR would be I watched the Stoke game today and QPR were utterly awful, couldn't defend and couldn't string 2 passes together in the final third.
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redarmi
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« Reply #87392 on: September 20, 2014, 11:52:59 PM »

I think Southampton are at risk of being overrated.

They have beaten a very poor Newcastle side and an injury hit West Ham side pre Song/Valencia. They were certainly second best today when Swansea had 11 men on the pitch before taking control after the sending off.

They have a trip to Arsenal this week in the cup - Koeman has said he wants to take this competition seriously as the team is still gelling. I wouldn't expect 11 changes.

QPR then visit next Saturday and are 15/2 best price at the moment. They have the week off with no cup game. 15/2 seems a touch big to me. Haven't seen much of QPR really so don't feel confident recc'ing it but am interested to see where the price goes over the week.

Love the reasoning on the Saints. Only Caveat on QPR would be I watched the Stoke game today and QPR were utterly awful, couldn't defend and couldn't string 2 passes together in the final third.

Agree QPR are that bad.  Also all of what Mr Channing calls the "moneyball types" are seeing stats that suggest Soton could be very good although nobody seems to really believe it just yet.  Quite like the idea of fading Soton but not sure that is the game for it although I hate saying I dont like a 15/2 shot because you can only end up looking silly.......
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engy
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« Reply #87393 on: September 21, 2014, 12:13:16 AM »

they are through to the final 12 and they are a perfect two girl two boy good looking combo, and cowell had said earlier. this is different from the usual all girl all boy bands and basically you could see the £££ signs in his eyes. they won a comp last year on capital radio to play at Wembley so already done it in a public voted competition, all four from diff parts of country brought together by agents same as take that/spice girls etc been on the go for a while building a following, I just think even if theyre not the best they will go far as they will make cowell money which is what this is all about, think theyre deffo worth a £20 pound bet at least
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Chompy
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« Reply #87394 on: September 21, 2014, 12:36:05 AM »

Read somewhere today that judges' house stage had only just happened?

Amazed results don't leak out more than they appear to; James Arthur was still 33-1 at this time two years ago.
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« Reply #87395 on: September 21, 2014, 01:10:21 AM »

Baseball news...







 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #87396 on: September 21, 2014, 01:11:38 AM »

Read somewhere today that judges' house stage had only just happened?

Amazed results don't leak out more than they appear to; James Arthur was still 33-1 at this time two years ago.


Did the Emily thing make it in?
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Ironside
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« Reply #87397 on: September 21, 2014, 03:39:59 AM »

Read somewhere today that judges' house stage had only just happened?

Amazed results don't leak out more than they appear to; James Arthur was still 33-1 at this time two years ago.

judges houses arent normally this early unlless they are doing the whole of boot camp next week even then they would only normally be going off to judges this week
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« Reply #87398 on: September 21, 2014, 05:21:54 AM »

Dwight Gayle now 500/1 for top goalscorer, up from 350/1 when i last suggested. EW 1/4 odds has it as a 125/1 bet he gets around 18 goals for the top 4 spot.

Isn't that high for a guy that plays the sole role up front for a Premier League team? Granted it's Palace but he could be capable. Had a great shots to goals ratio last year, and Palace seem like they have a lot more goals in them than last year.

Aside from Costa no-one else is trailblazing either.

Would suggest a little nibble for fred but no worries if you don't fancy it, just want to put it out there for everyone else. I really hope he announces his intent this season with his performance later on today.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer
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tikay
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« Reply #87399 on: September 21, 2014, 09:00:49 AM »

Baseball news...







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WINNER!
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« Reply #87400 on: September 21, 2014, 09:41:27 AM »

Quick question for people who run spread sheets/algorithms etc. to predict Football results.

I've been doing one this season and now that the lower leagues are eight games in I had a few bets on what I perceived would be the most probable results. Obviously, hardly any of them came in.

I have just looked back on my picks though and here's what I had:

BTTS - 15/35
O/U 2.5 -  14/35
HDA - 11/35

I can't quite work out if yesterdays results in the Championship, League 1 and 2 were a bit freakish. For example, Sheff Wed, Doncaster, Port Vale and Yeovil all won at home for the first time this season. Likewise Watford and Shrewsbury both failed to win for the first time. Throw in fourteen draws and seven 0-0's compared to last week's six draws and four 0-0's, which was roughly the same the week before and I think I might have been a bit unlucky.

Basically, what would be an acceptable strike rate for you guys? Is BTTS 15/35 good or bad?

Thanks in advance for any answers.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #87401 on: September 21, 2014, 09:54:26 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £97.54


Outstanding Bets £4130.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29


A profit of £75 yesterday

+£100 with the Yankees 6-3 loss to the Blue Jays, meaning the Yankees can no longer reach 87 wins for the season ans bringing the unders bet in

 Click to see full-size image.


-£25 Port Adelaide lost to Hawthorn in the AFL play offs 97-94

 Click to see full-size image.


The match report is a masterpiece of hyperbole

"What a game!!

Hawthorn got out to a game-high 29-point lead at the 14-minute mark of the final quarter and it looked as though it was going to cruise through to another grand final.

But the famous Port Adelaide run came back with a vengeance late and the Power kicked the last four goals of the game to give the Hawks a massive fright.

Port Adelaide was pressing so hard but it just couldn’t land that final blow to pull off one of the greatest comebacks of modern times!"

-£5 Jack Payne first goalscorer at York v Southend, he did score though, the fourth goal of the match and Southend's third

ongoing positions

Football

- Premier League

- Relegation bet Southampton won 1-0 at Swansea to go 2nd in the table. Excitingly, we must be only days away from the "Full Walsall" of a tip for them to reach the Champions League

 Click to see full-size image.


- Top ten bets West Ham win 3-1 against Liverpool and 2-2 draws for Stoke and plucky underdogs Newcastle against QPR and Hull respectively

 Click to see full-size image.




 Click to see full-size image.


- Another 90 minutes for the powderkeg that is Balotelli's temperament and this time he survived an altercation with the West Ham goalkeeper to survive, red cardo intacto, for another game

 Click to see full-size image.


- Jelavic scored a lovely goal for Hull, his third of the season and currently 2nd= in the golden boot ranks. we have a 150-1 e/w ticket but sadly Newcastle coming back to draw appears to have delayed the triumphant reign of Peter Beardsley



Championship

- Watford survived an early Bournemouth penalty, which Harte missed, to draw 1-1 with Bournemouth. Promotion bet Watford are 4th

- Bamford opened his account for Middlesborough, still some way behind Leadbitter who scored yet again for the Teesiders.




League One


- Peterborough lost at Yeovil, and are 3rd

- Doncaster beat Chesterfield 3-2

- In the match bet Peterborough v Doncaster Peterborough 16 points, Doncaster 11 points

League Two


- Newport drew at Shrewsbury, six games unbeaten now and a slow climb up the table

Conference

- Dover lost 3-1 at Dartford and, a relegation bet, are now 2nd bottom with 7 points

Ryman One South

- Guernsey drew again, this time 0-0 at home to Folkestone Invicta

 Click to see full-size image.


Scotland

Hearts thrashed Cowdenbeath 5-1 and Rangers only drew at Alloa (Clackmannanshire's finest) and that 7/2 e/w bet on Hearts looks very good at this early stage

 Click to see full-size image.


away from Football

in the Champions League T20 South Africa's Dolphins recovered to 164 off their 20 overs and the Perth Scorchers struggled in reply. They needed 12 off the last 2 balls to win. Step forward Mitchell Marsh. 6.6. Thank you very much and goodnight, Perth win

 Click to see full-size image.


in F1, Rosberg was just pipped to pole by Hamilton in Singapore today. A long race ahead, with brake and tyre issues likely and the Red Bulls much closer to the Mercedes on a downforce track that favours them, minimising their power deficit and emphasising their downforce strengths

 Click to see full-size image.


In baseball, the Royals lost 3-2 in their key game with the Tigers. 152 games into the season, the divisional title is slipping away from the 11/2 underdogs, now 2.5 games behind Detroit

 Click to see full-size image.


It was a controversial game..."Salvador Perez appears to score after a lineout and wild throw, but the Tigers successfully appeal that he never returned to third"

The Royals are currently appealing the result of the game with the MLB

http://m.mlb.com/video/v36430619/detkc-perezs-run-taken-off-the-board-after-appeal/?partnerId=as_mlb_20140920_32014616

 Click to see full-size image.


In the X factor (clears throat, prepares to bluff) 15 year old Emily Middlemass sang a faltering acapella of Coldplay's iconic first single "Yellow" to judging acclaim and made the next stage of the competition. The judges appeared not to notice that she was out of tune. (looks straight ahead, tries not to give the bluff tell away)



Finally, a cheese controversy in Motspur Park rocks football. The edam has burst on stories on Magath's tenure.

 Click to see full-size image.


 


 
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tikay
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« Reply #87402 on: September 21, 2014, 09:57:58 AM »

Quick question for people who run spread sheets/algorithms etc. to predict Football results.

I've been doing one this season and now that the lower leagues are eight games in I had a few bets on what I perceived would be the most probable results. Obviously, hardly any of them came in.

I have just looked back on my picks though and here's what I had:

BTTS - 15/35
O/U 2.5 -  14/35
HDA - 11/35

I can't quite work out if yesterdays results in the Championship, League 1 and 2 were a bit freakish. For example, Sheff Wed, Doncaster, Port Vale and Yeovil all won at home for the first time this season. Likewise Watford and Shrewsbury both failed to win for the first time. Throw in fourteen draws and seven 0-0's compared to last week's six draws and four 0-0's, which was roughly the same the week before and I think I might have been a bit unlucky.

Basically, what would be an acceptable strike rate for you guys? Is BTTS 15/35 good or bad?

Thanks in advance for any answers.

No idea if yesterday was "freak" or not, but I saw some PR blurb from a Bookie who mentioned that one bloke won just shy of £7,000 for a £1 stake for a "both teams to score in both halves" treble. Each game was 18/1.

Doncaster v Chesterfield

Northampton v Accrington Stanley

Fleetwood v Bristol City.


I suppose the odds must be really bad for bets like that, but a proper fun bet.
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BigAdz
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« Reply #87403 on: September 21, 2014, 10:07:15 AM »

Good reportage Tighty. Cheers.
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tikay
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« Reply #87404 on: September 21, 2014, 10:07:24 AM »


Another splendid Sunday morning Report......



The edam has burst


Groan.

sadly Newcastle coming back to draw appears to have delayed the triumphant reign of Peter Beardsley


Are we on Beardsley, then?
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
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