Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

Oh. My. God. Hector is a fraud??
Has anyone called the police?

[arbboy]

given the market moves on the manure game what are the best markets at ladbrokes to bet for the £25 free bet offer.  I don't have any of their coupons.  Going to pub next to a lads to watch the game and can send a mate in to get me on.  Mrs Bandit around to advise?

Ah sorry, I literally haven't stopped all day. I've been organising a big team for this offer over the last few days. Husband number one is practically uncontrollable ! I've no idea what he's bet and I doubt he has either.

The big market moves have really helped me. On Thursday and Friday I was betting Chelsea, 0-2 and NGS. Saturday Chelsea, 0-1 and NGS. Today Man U, 1-0 and NGS. It really helped to combine liabilities and for commission breaks.

Ladbrokes were 9/5 Man U and 6/4 Chelsea
0-2 12/1
0-1 9/1
1-0 9/1

NGS 10/1

On the exchange :-

BTTS Yes moved from 1.72 on Thursday to 1.89 today.
Chelsea were as low as 2.46 on Saturday and as high as 2.9 today
Man U were as high as 3.15 on Saturday and as low as 2.76 today
0-1 and 1-0 were below 10.0 at times today
NGS was as low as 10.5 today

Whilst both teams scoring was the best financial result for me it's a lot of work to place all the free bets.

See you all in a fortnight

Congrats on managing so many husbands Mrs Bandit!!!  I just played the simple 0-0 and NGS at 10/1 in the shops i could get on.  Need to find some big prices at ladbrokes to turn the free bets back into cash.

[Doobs]

Seattle won 13-9 and Marshawn Lynch mustered just 62 yards. Both of those bets came in.

well done

You, however, are not spared in tomorrow's report which looks into Scott Mills' role as a 21st century dancing icon

Simon literally cannot win. It's not his fault, but he cannot get the votes.

Thom was genuinely a potential winner. I had two bets on him midweek to take him to my max level. Really was that confident in his ability.

Sadly, he finished midtable in the judges' scores and that meant people assumed his safety and didn't vote.

In the words of Mark "I lav moi Nan" Wright...gatted

Can't agree with much of this.  Barring one week, Thom has polled terribly.  He may dance well, but just came across as a bit wooden in both his dancing and his personality.  I think Simon has the same issues as Thom too, and has also come across pretty grouchy when he has got bad marks.  To say that his low marks are noting to do with him seems a stretch.  I think you definitely need to look further than just the contestant's dancing ability before betting.

Scott doesn't come across much better than Thom or Simon, but he is so bad he is always getting the sabotage vote. I will be surprised if isn't him or Judy next week as the sabotage vote must be spread pretty thinly between them and Alison.   Just off the back of my 6 year old, I'd say Alison survives a bit longer, as she still finds her hilarious. She seems to have lost her earlier support on Digital Spy, so even if my daughter gets me to vote every week, her time is nearly up too. 

Just for info, this weeks poll with Thom and Simon losing their deposits.

http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=2020259

I think Caroline must be the best value of the favourites on the votes, and pretty sure she topped the polls before.   Jake seems too short even if he has polled well in the past, and Frankie seems to dance well, but not sure she gets votes.  Problem with tipping Caroline is that she is 5/1 with Shy only, and even if thread could, they don't ever lay much on reality tv to anybody.  6.2 or 6.4 on Betfair seems good, but there aren't going to be many get that either.  And I hate taking 9/2 when 5/1 is availabale and you can beat it on Betfair.   Sunetra seems to consistently poll better than her price and I thouht she danced well this week.  I struggle to see her in the top 3, but there is probably a smidgen of value if you can get 66/1 and 3 places (unfortunately that is shy and b653 only). If you can't get that, you are better asking for a price on Betfair, somebody should lay you 100/1+ on the win.  I certainy wouldn't take much shorter than that win only.

Of more interest to thread, Fleur is doing much better in X Factor.  She has got great comments from the judges each week* so far and looks far more the pop star than anybody above her in the betting.  I am hoping after 12 weeks, people will tire of Andrea standing still and belting out ballads, no matter how good a singer he may be.   I topped up at 14/1 mid show, but it didn't last long and was beteveryday, so there wasn't much point in posting.  She is now best 10/1 and that is going to be gone in the morning.



Doobs

* If we ignore the cheat one!

[Tal]

That's terrific, doobs. If you could perhaps share that polling information to me before I have a max bet on something next time, that would be even better. Avoids any aftertiming concerns, especially after I've been quite vocal in my support of this fellow.

FWIW sunetra has a bit of a balance issue but she's coping with a difficult workload very well.

[horseplayer]

Certainly was not suggesting Hector had copied

Would have been a bit tricky considering the s life preview didn't come out until 6.15pm

Just a few bits in there were very very similar!

[Doobs]

That's terrific, doobs. If you could perhaps share that polling information to me before I have a max bet on something next time, that would be even better. Avoids any aftertiming concerns, especially after I've been quite vocal in my support of this fellow.

FWIW sunetra has a bit of a balance issue but she's coping with a difficult workload very well.

This is not the first time I have mentioned Thom and the polls.  
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=64246.msg1986776#msg1986776

[tikay]

Certainly was not suggesting Hector had copied

Would have been a bit tricky considering the s life preview didn't come out until 6.15pm

Just a few bits in there were very very similar!

Agreed.

Unless I am reading this wrong, the exact opposite was being suggested - that the Sporting Life piece was copied from hector. Would not blame them at all......

[Tal]

That's terrific, doobs. If you could perhaps share that polling information to me before I have a max bet on something next time, that would be even better. Avoids any aftertiming concerns, especially after I've been quite vocal in my support of this fellow.

FWIW sunetra has a bit of a balance issue but she's coping with a difficult workload very well.

This is not the first time I have mentioned Thom and the polls.  
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=64246.msg1986776#msg1986776

I shouldn't be trying to get into a row to start the week. Fair enough. I'll move on

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £379.71

Outstanding Bets £4121.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of £51 yesterday

Winners

Although David Goffin lost 2 and 2 to Federer in the final in Basel, he still produced an each-way profit of £76 at 25-1 half odds

Carolina Panthers covered the six point spread losing 13-9 to Seattle for a £40 profit

Click to see full-size image.

losers

No safety at Wembley in the Detroit-Atlanta game -£10

Kilmarnock losing 2-0 to Celtic -£20. we were in trouble early, after...

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Chelsea 4 corners to Manchester United's 7 -£25, and more importantly the BTTS to keep Sonour from relaxing for a fortnight came late.....

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Thom Evans rather unfortunately chucked off strictly come dancing -£10

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-------------------

ongoing positions

A balmy night in the Bay Area, and in Game 5 of the World series the two pitching Aces squared off again, James Shields for the Royals and Madison Bumgarner for the Giants.

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Unlike game 4 this was always going to be low scoring, and by the time the starting pitchers were replaced by relief pitchers, the Giants were leading 2-0. MadBum was completely unhittable....as demonstrated by

Madison Bumgarner ERA MLB Career

Regular season 3.06
Postseason 2.27
World Series 0.29

(A major league pitcher is often judged on the basis of his earned run average, or ERA. This number represents the average number of earned runs given up by the pitcher per nine innings.

An earned run is any run that the opponent scores off a particular pitcher except for runs scored as a result of errors.)

Anyway the Royals did not recover, the Giants added more runs and ran out 5-0 winners to take a 3-2 lead in the series

Game 6 is in KC on Tuesday night

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In the EPL, Newcastle climbed to 14th with their second win on the bounce, beating Tottenham 2-1. We have Newcastle to finish top 10

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In Scotland a late late equaliser gained Hearts a point in the Edinburgh Derby and they are now 7 points ahead of Rangers at the top of the table

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Here's the thronker of a goal https://vine.co/v/OhYVII925eE

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In Germany Mainz05 lost 3-0 to Wolfsburg , their first defeat of the season that dropped them to sixth in the table

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On X-Factor outright bet OnlytheNohopers had to survive a sing off to make it through to another week. I watched it. Completely out of tune. Fortunately so was the bloke that got knocked out

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As Doobs said overnight, the runes are looking more positive for Fleur (outright) though it would appear to be a struggle for Lola to beat Lauren to the girls category

We have Simon to be top judge and he has all four of his acts remaining. Somehow.

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NFL

Teams

- The Dolphins beat the Jags to go 4-3 on the season. the finish bottom bet of the division is in deep doo doo partly because of Miami but partly because of the New York Jets who lost again to go 1-7

- The Bengals conceded 24 points and don't look like conceding the least in the league this season

- The Eagles lost 24-20 in Arizona, to the crimininally under-rated Cardinals. Quarter-back Nick Foles of the Eagles drove them downfield in the final minute, needing a touchdown for the win. Three attempts from the 15 yard line. Three incompletions including two misplaced throws and missing an open man. It is these occasions that seperate the elite from the rest, and our man is in the rest

- The Packers went down 44-23 in New Orleans to go a game behind the Lions in the NFC North.

- The Steelers in the AFC North had a remarkable game beating the Colts 51-34. No one would have believed they would beat the Colts in a Shoot out. They went to 5-3 on the season, jointly leading the division. It was an all-time game for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger

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Shame about the bumble-bee throwback uniforms though

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Players

- Ryan only threw for 228 yards in london, and as feared is beginning to slip down the passing yards rankings 

- McCoy is coming back to form now his OL is fit, rushing for 83 yards for the Eagles last night

- Two touchdowns for Jamaal Charles, also coming back to the form hoped pre-season

- Amongst the rookie bets, a mixed night. Kelvin Benjamin dropped what turned out to be a crucial catch for a touchdown in the Seattle game but still had 94 yards receiving in the game. For the Saints, they finally began to use the tremendous talents of Brandin Cooks (number 10 below) with 94 yards, a 50 yard receiving touchdown and a rushing touchdown in the game



- In that same game a scare for our Aaron Rodgers bet as he hurt his hamstring early in the third quarter. He stayed in the game but the veloctiy on his throws dropped off markedly and affected his ability to mount a comeback. Still threw for over 400 yards in the game though, in what became a rough night for him

[tikay]

"...We have Simon to be top judge and he has all four of his acts remaining. Somehow....."

Is Simon Cowell the X-Factor equivalent of Matchroom & Mr Hearn in Boxing?

[BigAdz]

So Jaffacake now writes basketball tips for Betting Emporium. 

Losing the contributions of many who posted on here regularly.  Perhaps the Fred title should be changed from Tips For Tikay to Trial for BE or TFT to Tips from Hector.

Like myself, he's a big lad, but he's still only one person, and I don't think he has been banned from Fred

Tighty writes for BE, and he hasn't gone anywhere.

Joe and Neil own BE, and they both contribute to Fred.

Any overreactions about?

Seems that Fred is losing quite a few posters though Joe and Neil don't really contribute here, Neil didfor a while before BE but since that has established he has posted less.  Joe has popped in but wouldn't say he was a contributor, Red Armi as well posts much less, I feel as if Tighty doesn't put as much up here as he did before BE/Betpal.

Fred has also lost The Camel and Bobby1 assuming thats related to the pay services I think Bobby has commented on it before Camel not so much but he has said recently Fred just makes him unhappy and this was hos favourite and also his baby.  Big Adz doesn't post as much either. 

TAL is obvs the next big thing and will no doubt be picked up. 

Been away this weekend so only caught up last night.

Seems that coupled with a few other bits, its all a bit tetchy here atm.

I saw a post that neither accused or absolved, initially, Hector from copying his tips. I laughed as horsey made a post, the other day, that had the same two horses Ben Linfoot had put up in the same race. Its very difficult on here to tell if people are serious or not. I should know, more than most. We need to be careful with what we pen sometimes.
Its very difficult with so many tipsters out there not to agree with someone. We have all done it. Sometimes I have seen an article before/sometimes after, I post a suggestion. It usually helps adds to my conviction, but I will always note prior to it, that I have seen it. Pretty sure none of the free stuff we get here is anything other than people own suggestions.

Hector clearly has his own mind, and specialist subjects, and has a record far better than any of the rugby or tennis guys I have seen in the usual places. Long live hector.

Then Tal getting narky because one of his sequined pin ups got booted out of Strictly, and that he hadn't been told about a poll on Digital Spy. Well, when you think about that in its singularity, its very worrying, on many levels!

Regards my posting less,. I tended to post mainly on the Racing thread, for no other reason than 90% of the stuff I put on here gets beat, 60/80% of the stuff I post on the RT gets a return. I still kiss the cross I wear around my neck before I board a plane, so yes, I guess I am a superstitious fool!

I have also taken a dogs load of abuse on TFT in the past, and told I am the worst punter on here, so for an egotist like me, it makes you reluctant to put yourself at the mercy of short term results. I know I have an approach that is very marmite, and its fashionable in some quarters to have a few digs. I cope. But, all in all, its easier to post elsewhere.

I have also posted less on the Racing thread recently as it becomes rather, disappointing, I suppose, that you can post up the number of decent priced winners that pro punters would give their wisdom teeth for, and the only people that thank you are the one you are in daily contact, away from TFT, anyway. I'm not getting £30/£50k for an Ascot or a Goodwood, I do it in the hope my fellow members make a few free quid from my efforts too. So when you get the tumbleweed, it makes you wonder why you bother, and then I look on TFT and someone gets a page of congrats for tipping up a winner of an overs/unders bet. Fickle, oh, bloody hell yes, but I always pass on my thanks, regardless of how I feel about the contributor. If someone gives you a present, you say thank you. Brought up proper me.

It is a shame KMac, i agree, but I suspect some of the defectors aren't nearly as profitable as you would imagine, and there are still some real gem posters on here that get a fraction of the praise, like yourself, exstream, Cheapwet, Tonji, McGlashan, Scotty, Omm, Bazza etc(sorry if I missed you).

Bar the bloody Steve Bruce posts, TFT is still excellent, and Blonde is still the first site I log onto each day and will continue to be so.

There are plenty of takers on TFT, that give little or nothing back, but that's life. Keep giving Kmac, because your posts do help a lot here. GL

[horseplayer]

Not long before my Breeders Preview hopefully i will have it on here by Thursday latest (be handy considering it starts Friday)

No idea whether there will be winners but i doubt anyone/many people have put more hours into it on this side of the pond than me.

Drf.com and Brisnet have certainly overtaken Steve Bruce at Weddings in my favourites the last week

[horseplayer]

Much like Hector did the tips in question were posted by me before the Linfoot column came out

But i think you know that already adz

[horseplayer]

This is a great interview

Old teammates really enjoyed the 9/11 part

http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/premier-league/sadlier-theres-no-such-thing-as-the-end-30693438.html

[BigAdz]

Much like Hector did the tips in question were posted by me before the Linfoot column came out

But i think you know that already adz

Lol.

Its a good thing you don't have more winners mate, or your signature could get quite big at the bottom.