Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £10.35

Outstanding Bets £3657.13

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=34

No bets completed yesterday

Sharapova against Serena in the Astralian women's final.

We have £20 at 7/1 Sharapova and she is a 2/1 underdog for the final

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/womens/serena-williams-v-maria-sharapova/winner



Cleveland Cavs beat Portland 99-94 last night, Kyrie Irving scored an improbable 55 points

Click to see full-size image.

Toronto Raptors beat the Sacramento Kings 119-104

Dallas Mavericks lost their 5th in a row, to the Houston Rockets

San Antonio Spurs beat the Charlotte Hornets 95-86

As we have a bet on the FIFA Presidency

"Fifa election: Michel Platini pulling the strings in bid to oust Sepp Blatter"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/11375661/Michel-Platini-masterplan-may-be-to-land-Fifa-presidency-in-2019.html

Click to see full-size image.

[doubleup]

Any love for the Coral offer on the Golf? £10 free in play when u get £10. I'd be getting the spider out but maybe the golf guys could throw something up.

Too late for this week but they've been doing this for a while and it is a bit of value but obv not huge as their in-play prices aren't great and if I'm reading the offer correctly the initial bet has to be win-only in their "win only" market (they used to do it that you could bet £10ew). So not really a bet to spend a lot of time over, just get the Coral win-only prices up and see one that's a reasonable price in comparison to the others on oddschecker and then do the same with the in-play bet.  (Always remembering to follow the free bet usage guidelines http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/Free_bets.html )

[Omm]

Any love for the Coral offer on the Golf? £10 free in play when u get £10. I'd be getting the spider out but maybe the golf guys could throw something up.

Too late for this week but they've been doing this for a while and it is a bit of value but obv not huge as their in-play prices aren't great and if I'm reading the offer correctly the initial bet has to be win-only in their "win only" market (they used to do it that you could bet £10ew). So not really a bet to spend a lot of time over, just get the Coral win-only prices up and see one that's a reasonable price in comparison to the others on oddschecker and then do the same with the in-play bet.  (Always remembering to follow the free bet usage guidelines http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/Free_bets.html )

thanks for replying.

[TightEnd]

Serena Williams beat Madison Keys 7-6, 6-2 in a high quality match.
If we can get 1.5 on Betfair (I'm an optimist) I think that we should reverse our position.

we can green green if you wish

1.5 a firm price? if you see it give me a nudge please

[MereNovice]

Serena Williams beat Madison Keys 7-6, 6-2 in a high quality match.
If we can get 1.5 on Betfair (I'm an optimist) I think that we should reverse our position.

we can green green if you wish

1.5 a firm price? if you see it give me a nudge please

I need to ponder.

Their respective form so far makes me think that 1.44 (4/9 on) is a decent price for Williams.
Personally, I quite like 2.14 for Williams 2-0.
Williams is 1.53 to win the first set which I assume is predicated upon the assumption that Williams is prone to make slow starts. She hasn't shown much evidence of that in her recent matches (even losing the first set to Muguruza was only because Muguruza played sensational tennis for the first set) and Sharapova has been very tense at the start of her last two matches.

I wouldn't want to leave a bet on Williams on Betfair to be matched as this is most likely only going to be gobbled up if someone gets some information on Williams such as her cold getting worse - she says that it is getting better.

We've got the best part of two days to go and I wouldn't expect Serena's price to contract much.

Perhaps we just hang on and pray for the Berdych/Nadal or Gerulaitis/Connors effect.

"And let that be a lesson to you all. Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row."

Open to any suggestions!

[Doobs]

This looks like aftertiming a bit, but it is worth reiterating.

In something like tennis/snooker where you have a short priced favourite in the other half of the draw (Williams, Djok, or O'Sullivan), it is good practice to always look at the each way terms.  Here Sharapova's most likely opponent in the final was most likely to be Williams.  With 1/2 first 2, the bookies are effectively giving you evens Williams in this match up.  I do realise it doesn't always work, and Williams can go in the first, but fairly sure you should be looking to always to do this.  Think in the long run, maths wins. On the downside I guess it could mark you out as shrewd.

As we stand I am minded to think even 4/9 Williams is good.  I do hate greening out on a 5% account when we have started away from Betfair.  If a conventional bookie offers you 1/2 I think you should definitely take it. 

[MereNovice]

Part of my reasoning for the bet was based on Serena not making the final of this event since 2010.
She did no serious preparation for the tournament; just messing around in the Hopman Cup where she lost to Agnieska Radwanksa and Eugenie Bouchard (6-2, 6-1).

She's also been prone to get a bit overwrought in matches recently and to under-perform when playing friends such as Caroline Wozniacki.

They all seemed good indicators that she might not make the final.

So far, we've just been very lucky that Sharapova has had a soft draw and played some opponents who really under-performed.

Ah well, I'm sure that there will be more opportunities to come.
I'll take your point about e/w betting on board.

[TightEnd]

we have £20 at 7-1 Grunter

I am minded to have at least £50 at 1/2 if we can get it on Serena

then we are small win-win

got 36 hours to see where the market goes anyway

[Doobs]

Part of my reasoning for the bet was based on Serena not making the final of this event since 2010.
She did no serious preparation for the tournament; just messing around in the Hopman Cup where she lost to Agnieska Radwanksa and Eugenie Bouchard (6-2, 6-1).

She's also been prone to get a bit overwrought in matches recently and to under-perform when playing friends such as Caroline Wozniacki.

They all seemed good indicators that she might not make the final.

So far, we've just been very lucky that Sharapova has had a soft draw and played some opponents who really under-performed.

Ah well, I'm sure that there will be more opportunities to come.
I'll take your point about e/w betting on board.

I am not saying it was a bad bet, just we could make a slightly better one.  I can't remember the exact odds, but say Serena was evens and we thought that was wrong, then the logic would still be right even if she should really have been 6/4.  She'd still be more likely to be our final opponent than not.  It would be a semi interesting maths problem to find out where the tipping point was.  I wouldn't be so confident e/w was best if Serena was a real 3/1 chance for instance.  Under those circumstances we'd be more likely to meet someone else other than Serena.  So I am guessing the tipping point is somewhere between 6/4 and 3/1 though I have no real idea where. 

[MereNovice]

Part of my reasoning for the bet was based on Serena not making the final of this event since 2010.
She did no serious preparation for the tournament; just messing around in the Hopman Cup where she lost to Agnieska Radwanksa and Eugenie Bouchard (6-2, 6-1).

She's also been prone to get a bit overwrought in matches recently and to under-perform when playing friends such as Caroline Wozniacki.

They all seemed good indicators that she might not make the final.

So far, we've just been very lucky that Sharapova has had a soft draw and played some opponents who really under-performed.

Ah well, I'm sure that there will be more opportunities to come.
I'll take your point about e/w betting on board.

I am not saying it was a bad bet, just we could make a slightly better one.  I can't remember the exact odds, but say Serena was evens and we thought that was wrong, then the logic would still be right even if she should really have been 6/4.  She'd still be more likely to be our final opponent than not.  It would be a semi interesting maths problem to find out where the tipping point was.  I wouldn't be so confident e/w was best if Serena was a real 3/1 chance for instance.  Under those circumstances we'd be more likely to meet someone else other than Serena.  So I am guessing the tipping point is somewhere between 6/4 and 3/1 though I have no real idea where.  

Serena was never that short before the tournament.
She was 4.2/4.3 on Betfair just before the first round.
Sharapova was 5.1/5.3 at the same time so there wasn't too much in it.

I laid Serena at 3.6 a week or so earlier which I think was as short as she got pre-tournament. That would have been about the time that we got on Sharapova.

Always happy to read about making better bets.

[Doobs]

Part of my reasoning for the bet was based on Serena not making the final of this event since 2010.
She did no serious preparation for the tournament; just messing around in the Hopman Cup where she lost to Agnieska Radwanksa and Eugenie Bouchard (6-2, 6-1).

She's also been prone to get a bit overwrought in matches recently and to under-perform when playing friends such as Caroline Wozniacki.

They all seemed good indicators that she might not make the final.

So far, we've just been very lucky that Sharapova has had a soft draw and played some opponents who really under-performed.

Ah well, I'm sure that there will be more opportunities to come.
I'll take your point about e/w betting on board.

I am not saying it was a bad bet, just we could make a slightly better one.  I can't remember the exact odds, but say Serena was evens and we thought that was wrong, then the logic would still be right even if she should really have been 6/4.  She'd still be more likely to be our final opponent than not.  It would be a semi interesting maths problem to find out where the tipping point was.  I wouldn't be so confident e/w was best if Serena was a real 3/1 chance for instance.  Under those circumstances we'd be more likely to meet someone else other than Serena.  So I am guessing the tipping point is somewhere between 6/4 and 3/1 though I have no real idea where.  

Serena was never that short before the tournament.
She was 4.2/4.3 on Betfair just before the first round.
Sharapova was 5.1/5.3 at the same time so there wasn't too much in it.

I laid Serena at 3.6 a week or so earlier which I think was as short as she got pre-tournament. That would have been about the time that we got on Sharapova.

Always happy to read about making better bets.

Maybe it was fine then.  My memory is rubbish, and I thought she was shorter. 

Good luck in the final. 

[TightEnd]

the Superbowl is on Sunday

I know tikay would be interested in having a portfolio of bets in his pocket to watch the game with

These might be points spreads, over/unders or prop bets

The thread has, in its three years, had action on length of national anthem, Madonna at half time, coin toss, who will the MVP thank first etc etc

the wackier the better

all the various markets are at

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-seattle-seahawks/betting-markets

last year 50-1 pokes came in for MVP first scoring play etc


this time round you can guess the colour of Belichick's hoodie, katy perry's first song, her outfit colour, her hair colour etc etc


over to you to research and report back

give us a selection of bets and we can go from there

[arbboy]

received odd email from joe today.


Hi Mark,

Section 6.10 of our Terms & Conditions (Protection of customer funds) will be updated on 02/02/15 to reflect some process changes we’ve made in the highly unlikely case of insolvency.

They must be struggling to review their T&C's in case of insolvency!

[exstream]

Anyone looked at the Oscars?

Can Boyhood really be that short for best picture? Saw it the other day, was like a three-hour episode of Party Of Five.

The Oscar nominations are all out

http://www.theguardian.com/film/live/2015/jan/15/oscars-nominations-2015-live

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars

anyone with any knowledge, opinions or value, please let us know in the next couple of weeks

Watched Birdman last night, and thought it was very strange.

From my experience, that makes it a firm Favourite mate!

Birdman won the Producers Guild Award over Boyhood for Best Movie, the last 7 winners of the PGA have went on to win Best Picture at Oscars.

Birdman is best 9/2, Boyhood 1/4.
[/quote

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture
Looks to be very close now.

[doubleup]

received odd email from joe today.


Hi Mark,

Section 6.10 of our Terms & Conditions (Protection of customer funds) will be updated on 02/02/15 to reflect some process changes we’ve made in the highly unlikely case of insolvency.

They must be struggling to review their T&C's in case of insolvency!

Just new Gambling Commission rules