Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?

Cant you back and lay a 1/3 shot at 1/5 and make a profit at 5% commission?  You are 84% likely not to pay any commission on the place market where the real profit is.  You might have to take a small loss on the win market but the place market will more than pay for that even at 5%.

[Chompy]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?

Cant you back and lay a 1/3 shot at 1/5 and make a profit at 5% commission?  You are 84% likely not to pay any commission on the place market where the real profit is.  You might have to take a small loss on the win market but the place market will more than pay for that even at 5%.

Yuh, good point. 80% though at 1.2? Never done this sort of bet but looks sensible enough to big numbers.

[arbboy]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?

Cant you back and lay a 1/3 shot at 1/5 and make a profit at 5% commission?  You are 84% likely not to pay any commission on the place market where the real profit is.  You might have to take a small loss on the win market but the place market will more than pay for that even at 5%.

Yuh, good point. 80% though at 1.2? Never done this sort of bet but looks sensible enough to big numbers.

The horse is 84% likely to place according to the bf market so you are 84% likely to not pay any commission on the bf place market.  Try getting 10k ew on jezki at 5/1.  Much easier getting £10k ew on the jolly.  You tie up much less cash and your ev edge on the place market is similar.  Niether bet has an ev edge on the win market.  Win market costs £50k in bf to lay to break even whereas the fav costs only £12500 tied up for the same ev.  Sounding sexy yet?

[Chompy]

Gotcha. 1.2 = 1/5 = 84%. It's late.

I'm gonna give this one a spin I think. The chance to walk into Ladbrokes with a plastic bag full of cash, like 'plastic bag man' used to.

[arbboy]

Gotcha. 1.2 = 1/5 = 84%. It's late.

I'm gonna give this one a spin I think. The chance to walk into Ladbrokes with a plastic bag full of cash, like 'plastic bag man' used to.

Just open a brand new online account and i gtd you you will be able to get 5 figures each way with any major firm online.  The account will prob get closed after review but you will have nicked 20 times more ev than it costs to pay a mate to open the account for u plus the £50 free bet on top.

[The Camel]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?

Cant you back and lay a 1/3 shot at 1/5 and make a profit at 5% commission?  You are 84% likely not to pay any commission on the place market where the real profit is.  You might have to take a small loss on the win market but the place market will more than pay for that even at 5%.

Yuh, good point. 80% though at 1.2? Never done this sort of bet but looks sensible enough to big numbers.

The horse is 84% likely to place according to the bf market so you are 84% likely to not pay any commission on the bf place market.  Try getting 10k ew on jezki at 5/1.  Much easier getting £10k ew on the jolly.  You tie up much less cash and your ev edge on the place market is similar.  Niether bet has an ev edge on the win market.  Win market costs £50k in bf to lay to break even whereas the fav costs only £12500 tied up for the same ev.  Sounding sexy yet?

I'd be shitting myself that Bertimont bolts going to post and I'm left with the ultimate pain of the jolly coming third.

[arbboy]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?

Cant you back and lay a 1/3 shot at 1/5 and make a profit at 5% commission?  You are 84% likely not to pay any commission on the place market where the real profit is.  You might have to take a small loss on the win market but the place market will more than pay for that even at 5%.

Yuh, good point. 80% though at 1.2? Never done this sort of bet but looks sensible enough to big numbers.

The horse is 84% likely to place according to the bf market so you are 84% likely to not pay any commission on the bf place market.  Try getting 10k ew on jezki at 5/1.  Much easier getting £10k ew on the jolly.  You tie up much less cash and your ev edge on the place market is similar.  Niether bet has an ev edge on the win market.  Win market costs £50k in bf to lay to break even whereas the fav costs only £12500 tied up for the same ev.  Sounding sexy yet?

I'd be shitting myself that Bertimont bolts going to post and I'm left with the ultimate pain of the jolly coming third.

That's why arbers are punters because its not risk free but we take those risks on teh chin when they happen.  Maybe more people should realise the risks arbers take then they would be less inclined to say they are scum.

What price is that double?  A horse bolting on the off and the jolly coming 3rd?

[The Camel]

Gotcha. 1.2 = 1/5 = 84%. It's late.

I'm gonna give this one a spin I think. The chance to walk into Ladbrokes with a plastic bag full of cash, like 'plastic bag man' used to.

Just open a brand new online account and i gtd you you will be able to get 5 figures each way with any major firm online.  The account will prob get closed after review but you will have nicked 20 times more ev than it costs to pay a mate to open the account for u plus the £50 free bet on top.

Try and deposit £40,000 into a new bet365 account and enjoy to the interesting chat you are going to have with your banks fraud department as you explain your plan.

[The Camel]

All in all, I think I'd rather just have £400 ew Jezki and £400 ew The New One.

Lots less headaches

[arbboy]

All in all, I think I'd rather just have £400 ew Jezki and £400 ew The New One.

Lots less headaches

Sure but u make a lot less profit on the best ew race of the year.  If a horse doesn't start and 7 run u lose a lot more ev than i do backing the fav ew for obvious reasons as well.

[The Camel]

All in all, I think I'd rather just have £400 ew Jezki and £400 ew The New One.

Lots less headaches

Sure but u make a lot less profit on the best ew race of the year.  If a horse doesn't start and 7 run u lose a lot more ev than i do backing the fav ew for obvious reasons as well.

Obviously yes.

But I would have a very laundry bill if I played it your way!

[arbboy]

Gotcha. 1.2 = 1/5 = 84%. It's late.

I'm gonna give this one a spin I think. The chance to walk into Ladbrokes with a plastic bag full of cash, like 'plastic bag man' used to.

Just open a brand new online account and i gtd you you will be able to get 5 figures each way with any major firm online.  The account will prob get closed after review but you will have nicked 20 times more ev than it costs to pay a mate to open the account for u plus the £50 free bet on top.

Try and deposit £40,000 into a new bet365 account and enjoy to the interesting chat you are going to have with your banks fraud department as you explain your plan.

Just get a new bank then that can cope or warn them in advance what is going to happen.  Never have any problems at my end making 5 figure deposits into betting accounts.  Maybe you need to upgrade your bank manager.

[arbboy]

All in all, I think I'd rather just have £400 ew Jezki and £400 ew The New One.

Lots less headaches

Sure but u make a lot less profit on the best ew race of the year.  If a horse doesn't start and 7 run u lose a lot more ev than i do backing the fav ew for obvious reasons as well.

Obviously yes.

But I would have a very laundry bill if I played it your way!

Why?  What price is the double that has to happen for you to get screwed?

[Karabiner]

^^

Not if The Fly nails them up the hill.

[Marky147]

^^

Not if The Fly nails them up the hill.

Thought I was the only one doing a raindance today