Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

http://www.boylesports.com/betting/horseracing/cheltenham-countdown/cheltenham-1-day-to-go/?navigationid=21.1,116403.1,1764224.1&btag=35729

Don Poli and Faugheen to place - Evens

RSA is a tough race for wannabe gold cup horses of the future,novice chaser so you never know,but you are probably getting a touch of value, 4/5 the likely price on both placed 1.2x1.5

Good luck sir

[GreekWay]

Douvan 3/1
Annie Power evens
Ladbrokes 9am

Is this just in shops? Do we know what the max bet is?

£100 on each supposedly.
Online and in shops.

For the Douvan offer is £25 max.

See here: http://thelowdown.ladbrokeslife.com/cheltenham-festival-2015/p/5?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=sports&utm_name=horseracing&hootPostID=bb4e982a6bf00a1e2a095ab9e8b37ff1

Don't know about Annie.

[Doobs]

Am wading through them anyway.  Am not getting any time in the morning.

Arkle

Hills are biggest Un De Sceaux in this, which makes that an obv bet for the Hils mobile.

Think Clarcam must be the best each way bet.  If you ignore that last race, he'd be much shorter, and ran well at Cheltenham before.

what you do with them is up to you.
  

[exstream]

Douvan 3/1
Annie Power evens
Ladbrokes 9am

Is this just in shops? Do we know what the max bet is?

£100 on each supposedly.
Online and in shops.

For the Douvan offer is £25 max.

See here: http://thelowdown.ladbrokeslife.com/cheltenham-festival-2015/p/5?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=sports&utm_name=horseracing&hootPostID=bb4e982a6bf00a1e2a095ab9e8b37ff1

Don't know about Annie.

Thanks. Had a look and good news

Ladbrokes Care ‏@LadbrokesCare  2h2 hours ago
@colinmcnally1 This is restricted to £100.00 on the 1st and £25.00 on the 2nd ^Craig

Annie is definitely £100!

[tikay]

thanks

tikay, i will take care of the above and any cheltenham stuff in the morning, no need for you to wade through the various races/markets/accounts


still looking for additional ideas, by the way

Appreciated Rich, thank you. I won't have time to mess about much on Fred in the morning, I have an article to write for Next Door, & I'm working in the evening in a masterpiece of bad timing.

If it helps, I already had a look on PP for that horse that Doobsy put up, Jollyann. The 10/1 has gone - 9/1 now - & they would only permit us £6.06. Which is fortunate in some ways, as we only have £7 in there, so at least I would not have needed to top that up.

[Doobs]

thanks

tikay, i will take care of the above and any cheltenham stuff in the morning, no need for you to wade through the various races/markets/accounts


still looking for additional ideas, by the way

Appreciated Rich, thank you. I won't have time to mess about much on Fred in the morning, I have an article to write for Next Door, & I'm working in the evening in a masterpiece of bad timing.

If it helps, I already had a look on PP for that horse that Doobsy put up, Jollyann. The 10/1 has gone - 9/1 now - & they would only permit us £6.06. Which is fortunate in some ways, as we only have £7 in there, so at least I would not have needed to top that up.

Forget it at 9/1 I think, I like the other 2 better (Qewy and Seedling) anyway.

Some very good races tomorrow for each way.

I think you can probably back the top 5 in the Champion and get value on them all just because the place terms are fantastic.  It is probably better to wait til nearer the race as we lose one and the place terms are appalling.  I am going to try and be responsible as I can be at work (there is no chance I am not f5 f5 f5 after the supreme, champion hurdle ane arkle), so have to make sacrifices elsewhere.

I have Jezki and Hurrciane Fly already, so right now am Hills mobile for Faugheen, The New One at 4/1 each way and Artic Fire 20/1 e/w too.  Jezki seems like it is getting a bit short though now so for those not on already, it is probably worth ducking, especially as the irish ex bookmakers are the only one offering 5/1.  I also wish somebody else other than Stans was 11/1 Hurricane Fly.  I might have a sneaky peak in the morning!

will come back to the handicaps


edit.  Only got to the 3rd race and already made 3 deposits.  Bank security going to be fun in the morning I guess.

[Mark_Porter]

http://www.boylesports.com/betting/horseracing/cheltenham-countdown/cheltenham-1-day-to-go/?navigationid=21.1,116403.1,1764224.1&btag=35729

Don Poli and Faugheen to place - Evens

Shout if Fred wants some of this.

[arbboy]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

[exstream]

I'm clueless understanding backing the short price fave at e/w. How does it work, what do I do?

[Doobs]

The Mares Hurdle doesn't look nearly as interesting as the first 3 I looked at.  

Some of us last year believed she was a good thing for the Champion, but it wasn't to be.

She should win this by 15 lengths, so I'd want some real value to bet anything else.  

Outside the Irish jokers you can get 11/2 Glens Melody, and taking that to get 11/8 the place whilst betfair is 7/1 the win feels a bit rubbish.

I've put small bets on Polly Peachum (10/1) and L'Unique (20/1) each way and Hillsmobiled Annie Power.  Those two are still a bit of value each way, but nothing more.

[arbboy]

I'm clueless understanding backing the short price fave at e/w. How does it work, what do I do?

You are just backing the fav in a terrible ew race where you get 1/4 instead of 1/5 the odds a place.  If it is 5/4 now. You are getting 5/16 a place at 1/4 the odds.  The betfair price for it to place assuming 3 places is closer to 1/5. So you are getting just under 1/3 about a 1/5 shot. Mathematically if you can ignore the fact it's a very short price you have a huge edge. You also have a much smaller edge on the win part of the bet.

Try to get a five figure bet on something at 1/3 that is 1/5 on bf at any other time of the year. Your account will probably get closed for doing this bet but you willbe more than compensated by the one bet.

I would be happy to say my best ever 100 ew bets in the last ten years have all involved horses shorter than 4/1. Half of them would have been shorter than evens just because of the huge amounts you can get on ew.  I know it sounds weird but it's true.  I think my most profitable ew bet ever was on a 1/2 shot i laid place on bf at 1/50 for 5 figures when i got 1/10 a place with the firms.  I don't expect people to understand the logic of backing a 1/2 shot ew or any short priced jolly but the maths and the volumes you can get on, especially in spots like cheltenham tomorrow on clean accounts, just make it a no brainer.  If you follow the crowd you will go skint as one great judge once said. 

[Doobs]

People will have to be quick, but Perfect Gentleman seems t be getting backed in the 4.40 such that its price if close to Betfair (12/1 with some firms.  Of those the Tote/Fred are offering 4 places.   Basically you are getting something close to fair value and getting an extra place for free.

Cheers Fred.

Getting knacked, might come back for the handicaps, might not.

[Larry David]

I bet you don't find many of them where bookies go so much bigger.  That e/w market on betfair champion hurdle is some kind of joke, place terms 1/5th the odds and the huge gaps between back and lay prices reminds me of a dormant market on a clay pigeon event, absolutely pointless.

[doubleup]

I'm clueless understanding backing the short price fave at e/w. How does it work, what do I do?

just put the odds in this calculator if it says you get back more than 2 its a bet

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachwaycalc.html

[Chompy]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?