Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

All in all, I think I'd rather just have £400 ew Jezki and £400 ew The New One.

Lots less headaches

Sure but u make a lot less profit on the best ew race of the year.  If a horse doesn't start and 7 run u lose a lot more ev than i do backing the fav ew for obvious reasons as well.

Obviously yes.

But I would have a very laundry bill if I played it your way!

Why?  What price is the double that has to happen for you to get screwed?

Huge of course.

I didn't think you were being entirely serious with your OP, but you obviously were.

Apologies.

[Chompy]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?

Cant you back and lay a 1/3 shot at 1/5 and make a profit at 5% commission?  You are 84% likely not to pay any commission on the place market where the real profit is.  You might have to take a small loss on the win market but the place market will more than pay for that even at 5%.

Yuh, good point. 80% though at 1.2? Never done this sort of bet but looks sensible enough to big numbers.

The horse is 84% likely to place according to the bf market so you are 84% likely to not pay any commission on the bf place market.  Try getting 10k ew on jezki at 5/1.  Much easier getting £10k ew on the jolly.  You tie up much less cash and your ev edge on the place market is similar.  Niether bet has an ev edge on the win market.  Win market costs £50k in bf to lay to break even whereas the fav costs only £12500 tied up for the same ev.  Sounding sexy yet?

I'd be shitting myself that Bertimont bolts going to post and I'm left with the ultimate pain of the jolly coming third.

That's why arbers are punters because its not risk free but we take those risks on teh chin when they happen.  Maybe more people should realise the risks arbers take then they would be less inclined to say they are scum.

What price is that double?  A horse bolting on the off and the jolly coming 3rd?

6/4 with VC. Max bet £2.38.

It's an interesting one. Think it's probably worth the risk if you can get 5/4, lay at around 2.26/1.22 and get £5000 EW on.

[Doobs]

I have looked briefly at the handicaps and the one that leaps out most is Ned Stark in the 2.40.

It is a novice so unexposed, the win price is on betfair at 9/1 and you can get 5 places with Vic tor whcih nails it.  

It is likely beteveryday will be matching it from 10am for those that miss it.

Lots of good e/w races tomorrow, please don't forget to bet, the later days are unlikley to be as good..

Good night all.

[arbboy]

All in all, I think I'd rather just have £400 ew Jezki and £400 ew The New One.

Lots less headaches

Sure but u make a lot less profit on the best ew race of the year.  If a horse doesn't start and 7 run u lose a lot more ev than i do backing the fav ew for obvious reasons as well.

Obviously yes.

But I would have a very laundry bill if I played it your way!

Why?  What price is the double that has to happen for you to get screwed?

Huge of course.

I didn't think you were being entirely serious with your OP, but you obviously were.

Apologies.

Just out of interest as i assume you don't see the value in backing odds on ew what is the shortest price you have ever backed a horse ew?  I appreciate a lot of punters don't like betting odds on or big odds on but i didn't have you down as a guy who wouldn't bet 1/3 about a 1/5 shot that was all.

[The Camel]

I would love to be the fly on the wall in a trading room when a £40000 ew bet on a 5/4 shot came through on the ticker from a new account.


EDIT: I typoed "trading room" as "tarding room" which made me laugh more that it should.

I've had a very long day staring at Oddschecker, Paul Jones book, Timeform and the RP site.

[arbboy]

I would love to be the fly on the wall in a trading room when a £40000 ew bet on a 5/4 shot came through on the ticker from a new account.


EDIT: I typoed "trading room" as "tarding room" which made me laugh more that it should.

I've had a very long day staring at Oddschecker, Paul Jones book, Timeform and the RP site.

Sure but once the bet is accepted the bet stands no matter how much they lol in the tarding room the account is 1.01 to be dead but u have nicked fortunes out of their awful systems and limits for jollies on bad ew races like this on the once a year bad ew race then its job done.  You will get a lot more ev out of a new account doing this than 99% other ways to abuse a new account.

You would be amazed how many head of horse racing guys i spoke to 6 years ago about this and asked them what they would do in a spot like this most said 'i would automatically double your limits as you must be a raving mug'.  Pretty sure this isn't the case in 2015 but in 2008/9 it certainly was.

[The Camel]

All in all, I think I'd rather just have £400 ew Jezki and £400 ew The New One.

Lots less headaches

Sure but u make a lot less profit on the best ew race of the year.  If a horse doesn't start and 7 run u lose a lot more ev than i do backing the fav ew for obvious reasons as well.

Obviously yes.

But I would have a very laundry bill if I played it your way!

Why?  What price is the double that has to happen for you to get screwed?

Huge of course.

I didn't think you were being entirely serious with your OP, but you obviously were.

Apologies.

Just out of interest as i assume you don't see the value in backing odds on ew what is the shortest price you have ever backed a horse ew?  I appreciate a lot of punters don't like betting odds on or big odds on but i didn't have you down as a guy who wouldn't bet 1/3 about a 1/5 shot that was all.

I've bet 2/1 shots ew, probably as short as Evens in ew doubles.

While theoretically your plan is excellent, I just thought logistically it would be almost unfeasible.

[Chompy]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

[The Camel]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

Stick in one of those Noel Wilson 1000/1 shots as insurance against a nonner and I'd be a great deal less stressed out.

[arbboy]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

It is scary but that is only one part of the double.  The above has to happen then the fav has to come 3rd as well.  It's not a single.  It is far more risky maths wise betting the 2nd and 3rd favs ew if you think that is going to happen because they are far far more likely to come 3rd than the fav.  The fav is probably as likely to come last as it is 3rd.

[arbboy]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

Stick in one of those Noel Wilson 1000/1 shots as insurance against a nonner and I'd be a great deal less stressed out.

But by saying that you are making ew theives sound like arbers and arbers sound like risk taking degens!  I remember when you said arbers were scum and never took a risk!

[sonour]

I would love to be the fly on the wall in a trading room when a £40000 ew bet on a 5/4 shot came through on the ticker from a new account.


EDIT: I typoed "trading room" as "tarding room" which made me laugh more that it should.

I've had a very long day staring at Oddschecker, Paul Jones book, Timeform and the RP site.

Sure but once the bet is accepted the bet stands no matter how much they lol in the tarding room the account is 1.01 to be dead but u have nicked fortunes out of their awful systems and limits for jollies on bad ew races like this on the once a year bad ew race then its job done.  You will get a lot more ev out of a new account doing this than 99% other ways to abuse a new account.

You would be amazed how many head of horse racing guys i spoke to 6 years ago about this and asked them what they would do in a spot like this most said 'i would automatically double your limits as you must be a raving mug'.  Pretty sure this isn't the case in 2015 but in 2008/9 it certainly was.

The shop managers think I'm crazy betting short prices each way. The traders they refer the bets to not so much.
Having said tht this is the one time of the year you an get on the dirty each ways big in the shops.

[The Camel]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

Stick in one of those Noel Wilson 1000/1 shots as insurance against a nonner and I'd be a great deal less stressed out.

But by saying that you are making ew theives sound like arbers and arbers sound like risk taking degens!  I remember when you said arbers were scum and never took a risk!

I'm a million to ever have this bet, but if I did I wouldn't arb the place, I'd just hedge the win part.

[Larry David]

Do you think this is the best e/w race of the year?  Shortest price I have backed e/w was Novak djokovic 4/6 in a e/w treble.

[arbboy]

why does it matter whether you bet something in an ew single or an ew multiple the bets are identical from an ev point of view?