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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16366098 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #270 on: February 19, 2012, 12:52:53 PM »

lol 2 huge absurd decisions so far, the ref has lost control.

Things like this make me think Bobby1 has a point about football betting.

I know of this ref. Perennially weak, and easily swayed by outside influences such as crowd and touchline.

Steve Evans at Crawley is a horrific individual too
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« Reply #271 on: February 19, 2012, 12:54:46 PM »

completley agree with above poster

i have no bet in this game and am no fan of stoke's "style"

however anytime steve evans is involved in a  game i hope his side gets stuffed

a truly horrid man who is nothing more than a big bully
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« Reply #272 on: February 19, 2012, 12:57:15 PM »

Commentator confirmed what I first thought, that the fourth official told him to send him off.
Bobby1 does have more than a point about Football, refs could influence nearly evey game if they wanted to.
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Dubai
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« Reply #273 on: February 19, 2012, 03:21:14 PM »

Fancy Michigan State away at Purdue in NCAA basketball. Michigan on good run and Purdue have had off court problems

Betfair around 1-2 AFTER commission on betfair.


Recommend 80 to win 40- starts 6pm

Sky bet are 5-11, which is around 1.45- if betting with them recommend £77 to win £35
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« Reply #274 on: February 19, 2012, 03:22:45 PM »

For the non short odds on punters I also fancy Michigan to cover the spread- 10-11 giving up 4.5 points.

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tikay
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« Reply #275 on: February 19, 2012, 03:34:05 PM »

Fancy Michigan State away at Purdue in NCAA basketball. Michigan on good run and Purdue have had off court problems

Betfair around 1-2 AFTER commission on betfair.


Recommend 80 to win 40- starts 6pm

Sky bet are 5-11, which is around 1.45- if betting with them recommend £77 to win £35

ON, tyvm.

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tikay
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« Reply #276 on: February 19, 2012, 03:34:41 PM »

For the non short odds on punters I also fancy Michigan to cover the spread- 10-11 giving up 4.5 points.



Should I do this also, or just the original selection?
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« Reply #277 on: February 19, 2012, 03:35:11 PM »

Fancy Michigan State away at Purdue in NCAA basketball. Michigan on good run and Purdue have had off court problems

Betfair around 1-2 AFTER commission on betfair.


Recommend 80 to win 40- starts 6pm

Sky bet are 5-11, which is around 1.45- if betting with them recommend £77 to win £35
might go for this on my challenge seeing it has your backing
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tikay
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« Reply #278 on: February 19, 2012, 03:36:05 PM »

Horneris = confirmed hero, I believe the Stoke bet came good, tyvm.

Will update the running totals later. We must be close to profitable now, with the "unsettled" being freerolls.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 03:58:22 PM by tikay » Logged

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Dubai
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« Reply #279 on: February 19, 2012, 03:44:24 PM »

Just original bet Tikay. I always bet straight up and not handicaps, some people only bet handicaps
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« Reply #280 on: February 19, 2012, 03:48:43 PM »

Just original bet Tikay. I always bet straight up and not handicaps, some people only bet handicaps

I'd be interested to know your reasoning for this, if it doesn't disclose any trade secrets.
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« Reply #281 on: February 19, 2012, 03:51:39 PM »

Couple reasons but tilt factor is one, sounds silly but tilts the life out of me in basketball at end with teams losing on spread due to trying to win game- ie might be 5 points down with 30 seconds left and spread is 8, they then give up 4 points thro fouls trying to win and you do your money, where as if they were 9 down they don't bother, score 2 pointer, other team just retains possession and you win. Drives me crazy so just avoid it
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« Reply #282 on: February 19, 2012, 03:53:51 PM »

Thanks.
I knew there would be a good reason.
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« Reply #283 on: February 19, 2012, 03:55:40 PM »

Well not sure if it's a good reason, I mean in the long run variance would even it out- I just prefer knowing players and coaches are taking a GTO approach to winning my bet- when they don't care if they cover spread. Just an add variable that makes punting more of a lottery and increases short term variance
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« Reply #284 on: February 19, 2012, 04:25:28 PM »

But spreads are shorter price if you're backing the dog -> reduces variance?
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