Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

Lol, great stuff.

I WLL do this, even though maybe only for £20 or £25, & thread owes you a favour after you got Man City over the line on Wednesday for us.

This interested me.....

ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value

Add in the "DNB" element, & you are surely not far off.

It is available in 3 places (regular betting) @ 9/1, but Betfair currently go 11 (almost 10/1 after comm I assume).

Deffo worth a small investment, I'll await further comment before placing though.

I've been meaning to post about this and ask for people's views for a while.

I have been pricing up teams myself and then comparing to the market for a couple of months. After years of being one of the 98% losing punters I've woken up and (on only a 2 month sample) I'm making a regular profit from bets that to me offer value.

One thing has struck me. The odds compilers and then the market seem to shorter the big favourites too much (the Man Utd's etc) and offer too generous odds on the outsider. The classic example of this earlier in the season was Blackburn away at Man Utd being available at 25/1.

It's similar for me in the Premiership with teams like West Brom, Norwich and Swansea playing away from home. In the Championship, where almost anyone can beat anyone else, there can be value from away teams to win/DNB.

Maybe it's because joe public love to pile on home teams and big football favourites when maybe the real value is elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

A two month sample is nowhere near enough to judge your returns on a market like this, where your edge is razor thin at best. I've gone through runs of winning @ 40% and stuff over a 2-month sample when my true ROI is more like 2-3%. You're best of looking at how Asia closes (with the over round factored in) rather than looking at your results.

I do think there's more likely to be value in the less glamorous teams, but still, that doesn't mean there is value there.

Comparing your price with the closing Asian price is a great for situational, one off bets.

But if you think the market is over (or under) valuing a team long term and your bet is placed on that basis, comparing with Asia is pointless.

[Dubai]

Doesnt sound much fun at all

[Sighmuns]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Perhaps get Mr S's opinion on this? I'd hate for it to become counterproductive for him to post analysis like this.

[tikay]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Perhaps get Mr S's opinion on this? I'd hate for it to become counterproductive for him to post analysis like this.

I'm sure Mr S has considered that. He did, after all, Post it.

[doubleup]

As long as I've been gambling, as a general rule, Man Utd, Celtic, Liverpool, Arsenal, Rangers are almost always under priced, especially at home.

not sure if I agree with this.  I have a spreadsheet with a load of EPL results (2004-2010) and B365 odds.  There are 357 home games where Man U Ars and Liv are at home (playing someone other than the other 2) and the return on betting home win on b365 odds is 367.  

I think that the general strategy nowadays with big favs appears to be to move closer to the true odds to get bigger volume.  (absolutely a guess on my part just looking at prices)

[Dubai]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Perhaps get Mr S's opinion on this? I'd hate for it to become counterproductive for him to post analysis like this.

Its a bit of a dead market anyway with 3 firms who dont take a proper bet. Have to open a new account anyway. Plus if they did read it they might overreact cos the Taylor effect would be reduced if he started averaging less anyway, the reason its so high is because he is averaging 109 every week. Soon as that drops to 100, his opponents average would drop to more of a norm anyway

[Sighmuns]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Perhaps get Mr S's opinion on this? I'd hate for it to become counterproductive for him to post analysis like this.

I'm sure Mr S has considered that. He did, after all, Post it.

Fair enough Mr K    x

[Dubai]

Doesnt sound much fun at all

I like money

edit: obv realise that people bet for fun as well! Just putting across my pov, which (I think) is the EV+ pov.

Surely ud rather have 20 bets at evens, 10 winners, 10 losers, massive swings and sweats and break level, than have 0 bets? In 100% markets it dont really matter what you back, run good and win

[redarmi]

Only if you think Asia is likely to be wrong in the long-run and that the big syndicates have got it wrong? It's pretty unlikely for a random punter to have an edge on Bloom/Benham don't you think? Maybe they might have a blind spot on Team X, but how do you know you've found that and not just something you're missing? On the balance of probabilities, it's always wiser to think market at close is correct rather than yourself.

Whilst generally I think what you say is true I would take issue with one slight technicality.  The big syndicates are not the market in Asia.  They have a big affect on the market and the market is undoubtedly influenced to a great degree by the big syndicates the final market doesn't have to correlate 100% to their view because the market makers are the ones that make the adjustment after the syndicates have bet.  The maret could easily be 2% out and it wouldn't qualify as a bet for the two biggest syndicates.  I also think that the market overreacts to Blooms bets in particular.  Believe me when I tell you that I have had conversations with seemingly rational and very senior traders in Asia that honestly believe that Tony has mystical powers and want to be with his selections at pretty much any price.  Pointing out to them that he has 48% (or whatever the figure is) losers holds absolutely no sway with these guys because they think he "knows" the winner.

[RickBFA]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

Lol, great stuff.

I WLL do this, even though maybe only for £20 or £25, & thread owes you a favour after you got Man City over the line on Wednesday for us.

This interested me.....

ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value

Add in the "DNB" element, & you are surely not far off.

It is available in 3 places (regular betting) @ 9/1, but Betfair currently go 11 (almost 10/1 after comm I assume).

Deffo worth a small investment, I'll await further comment before placing though.

I've been meaning to post about this and ask for people's views for a while.

I have been pricing up teams myself and then comparing to the market for a couple of months. After years of being one of the 98% losing punters I've woken up and (on only a 2 month sample) I'm making a regular profit from bets that to me offer value.

One thing has struck me. The odds compilers and then the market seem to shorter the big favourites too much (the Man Utd's etc) and offer too generous odds on the outsider. The classic example of this earlier in the season was Blackburn away at Man Utd being available at 25/1.

It's similar for me in the Premiership with teams like West Brom, Norwich and Swansea playing away from home. In the Championship, where almost anyone can beat anyone else, there can be value from away teams to win/DNB.

Maybe it's because joe public love to pile on home teams and big football favourites when maybe the real value is elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

A two month sample is nowhere near enough to judge your returns on a market like this, where your edge is razor thin at best. I've gone through runs of winning @ 40% and stuff over a 2-month sample when my true ROI is more like 2-3%. You're best of looking at how Asia closes (with the over round factored in) rather than looking at your results.

I do think there's more likely to be value in the less glamorous teams, but still, that doesn't mean there is value there.

Thanks for the replies.

I agree the 2 month sample is nowhere near enough. My monthly ROI is around 12-13%. I think I should keep following the process and see what its like in 12 months to get a better feel for my success rate and look at the factors you have mentioned above.

[redarmi]

After my last boring post I remembered why i came on this thread to post.....

Agree that MU, Chelsea, MC, celtic, Bayern, Barca etc are generally poor value but be careful because it is nowhere near as pronounced as it used to be.  Every year the market gets cleverer and cleverer and the obvious biases are much less than, say, five years ago.  By way of example I cannot remember ever having backed Man United or Chelsea at all pre about 2007 now I probably only find them value slightly less often than other teams and certainly don't have an automatic veto on them.

[horseplayer]

i am not a massive football bettor by any means

if i do it tends to be in the minor european leagues were i believe the "value" if there is any still lies

personally i find it hard to believe that premier league matches are ever wildly a long way away from the price they should be tbh...

like i say would happily bow to somebody who has done more research

[bobby1]

i am not a massive football bettor by any means

if i do it tends to be in the minor european leagues were i believe the "value" if there is any still lies

personally i find it hard to believe that premier league matches are ever wildly a long way away from the price they should be tbh...

like i say would happily bow to somebody who has done more research

abs spot on, most people want to bet on matches in the leagues that are usually abs rock solid price wise.

[Dubai]

Only had quick look and might be slightly out but this year at home in the league when they werent playing each other, Man U, Man City, Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea have a combined record of...


Played 56
Won 46
Drawn 6
Lost 4

Of the 4 defeats 2 were against Liverpool who could be excluded on price reasons.

I will carry on lumping on the good sides at home against the trash as its generally a public misconception that anyone can win anywhere

Results excluding against each other and against Liverpool for the top 5

Played 52
Won 44
Drawn 6
Lost 2

2 wins in 52 games- they were Villa away at Chelsea and Blackburn away at Man U- both 3-2 wins

Lump on the top 5 when at home against any sides other than themselves or Liverpool

[redarmi]

Problem with this analysis is that you are backfitting in so far as that it isn't a feasible strategy until you know who the top five are.  On August 1st would you have included Arsenal in a top five pick?  Would Spurs definitely be in there and Liverpool not?  Sure we can assume that the top five will include MU, MC and Chelsea but then we are betting at 1/4 in a lot of games and that only gives a +EV of 5% which is fairly thin for a blind strategy with a sample of 52 games.