Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

Problem with this analysis is that you are backfitting in so far as that it isn't a feasible strategy until you know who the top five are.  On August 1st would you have included Arsenal in a top five pick?  Would Spurs definitely be in there and Liverpool not?  Sure we can assume that the top five will include MU, MC and Chelsea but then we are betting at 1/4 in a lot of games and that only gives a +EV of 5% which is fairly thin for a blind strategy with a sample of 52 games.

but using camels 3 teams man u liv ars we have 24 wins from 36 and a return of 34.57 at b365 odds, so no evidence of gross under-pricing.

[The Camel]

As long as I've been gambling, as a general rule, Man Utd, Celtic, Liverpool, Arsenal, Rangers are almost always under priced, especially at home.

not sure if I agree with this.  I have a spreadsheet with a load of EPL results (2004-2010) and B365 odds.  There are 357 home games where Man U Ars and Liv are at home (playing someone other than the other 2) and the return on betting home win on b365 odds is 367.  

I think that the general strategy nowadays with big favs appears to be to move closer to the true odds to get bigger volume.  (absolutely a guess on my part just looking at prices)

Things have changed slightly in the last couple of years as the internet firms now just mirror the moves on Betfair/Asia.

The coupons in the shops are the same as they ever were.

The big clubs are priced a good couple of % points shorter than they should be.

[doubleup]

As long as I've been gambling, as a general rule, Man Utd, Celtic, Liverpool, Arsenal, Rangers are almost always under priced, especially at home.

not sure if I agree with this.  I have a spreadsheet with a load of EPL results (2004-2010) and B365 odds.  There are 357 home games where Man U Ars and Liv are at home (playing someone other than the other 2) and the return on betting home win on b365 odds is 367.  

I think that the general strategy nowadays with big favs appears to be to move closer to the true odds to get bigger volume.  (absolutely a guess on my part just looking at prices)

Things have changed slightly in the last couple of years as the internet firms now just mirror the moves on Betfair/Asia.

The coupons in the shops are the same as they ever were.

The big clubs are priced a good couple of % points shorter than they should be.

ah that makes sense  haven't looked at a coupon in years.

[The Camel]

Only if you think Asia is likely to be wrong in the long-run and that the big syndicates have got it wrong? It's pretty unlikely for a random punter to have an edge on Bloom/Benham don't you think? Maybe they might have a blind spot on Team X, but how do you know you've found that and not just something you're missing? On the balance of probabilities, it's always wiser to think market at close is correct rather than yourself.

I'll give you an example.

The effect of Thomas Ince on Blackpool.

I've got a mate who is a Blackpool supporter, who as soon as he'd seen Ince two times was absolutely raving about him.

I think Ince being in the team might improve the team's chances of winning by maybe 15 ticks against Average United.

Although the market has reacted to this by now, my friend definitely had value by backing Blackpool in games he started when he first hit the starting eleven.

[tikay]

Wolfsberg to beat Hamburg  at 11/10

Hamburg are in pretty bad form with only 1 win from their last 6 matches.  Wolfsberg are playing quite well at home, 4 wins, 1 draw and a loss in the last 6.  Could be a few goals too, Hamburg have let in 10 in their last 3 games alone where as Wolfsberg have score 3 in both their last two games.

There has been no adverse comment, it's nice & quirky (German football, wtf?!), & its time you got on the scorecard.

I just missed the price, but managed 21/20, so close enough. Best I could see elsewhere was Betfair 2.06, most bookies Evens.

So.....

ON, £50, BetVictor @ 21/20.


You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 102.50

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
Wolfsburg v Hamburg
Wolfsburg
(Match Betting)
Odds:  21/20
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  102.50

[tikay]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Its is great analysis for sure  ..How about a "secret room " where only certain people could view  ? (not really possible I assume )I know that generally people will put their bets on before posting but thats not always possible due to account restrictions etc. I have no doubt that " betting industry people " lurk in the shadows so shame to tip them off .

Bet for today Tikay is double your stake on Sunderland. Having watched all the Liverpool  QPR game, QPR were dreadful for 75 minutes (again) then a ridiculous chain of events turned things around. Martin O Neil rested a lot of players against Blackburn but Im sure they will be at full strength tomorrow (even with a cup game due against Everton next Tuesday ) so as Keith says 11-10 is massive and evens is still very good.

Convinced, decided to press.

ON.

£100 @ 11/10, BetVictor


You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 210.00

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
Sunderland v QPR
Sunderland
(Match Betting)
Odds:  11/10
Stake:  100.00
Possible Return:  210.00

[tikay]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

ON

£25 @ 9/1, Blue Square, DNB.

Go Dazzler!




Selection 1
 
Selection Wigan Athletic @ 9/1 
Market
 Draw No Bet
 
Event
 English Premier League
Liverpool v Wigan Athletic
2012-03-24 15:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £25.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £25.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-03-23 19:10:03
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000007
 

[tikay]

It is a lot easier to go compare all the prices & stuff when I'm not working (as now), much much more comfortable. Off all weekend, too.

Lets get the weekend off to a decent start, Wolfburg to win, & BARNET to lose. Barnet are currently just under 2/1 tonight, away to Macclesfield, KO 7.45.

[Graham C]

 Do we like barnet to lose tonight as a Sep bet or just for the relegation battle?

[The Camel]

Do we like barnet to lose tonight as a Sep bet or just for the relegation battle?

Macclesfield are dire.

No wins in 2012.

New manger would seem to be good news, until you find out it's Brian Horton.

I'll take a draw, and then move onto the next 4 games in which Barnet are going to struggle to pick up anything.

[tikay]

Do we like barnet to lose tonight as a Sep bet or just for the relegation battle?

Just the relegation bet, have not had anything on the match.

[MANTIS01]

Just catching up with this thread. The darts analysis brought a tear to my eye it was that pretty.

[tikay]

Just catching up with this thread. The darts analysis brought a tear to my eye it was that pretty.

A thing of beauty - & the "actual" was almost exactly as predicted.

PS - send money.

[henrik777]

Wolfsberg to beat Hamburg  at 11/10

Hamburg are in pretty bad form with only 1 win from their last 6 matches.  Wolfsberg are playing quite well at home, 4 wins, 1 draw and a loss in the last 6.  Could be a few goals too, Hamburg have let in 10 in their last 3 games alone where as Wolfsberg have score 3 in both their last two games.

There has been no adverse comment, it's nice & quirky (German football, wtf?!), & its time you got on the scorecard.

I just missed the price, but managed 21/20, so close enough. Best I could see elsewhere was Betfair 2.06, most bookies Evens.

So.....

ON, £50, BetVictor @ 21/20.


You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 102.50

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
Wolfsburg v Hamburg
Wolfsburg
(Match Betting)
Odds:  21/20
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  102.50

Won 2-1.

Sandy

[tikay]

Thanks Sandy, & welcome to the scoreboard, Silo!

Meanwhile, Barnet slugged out a 0-0 Draw, which, iirc, Camel thought would do nicely.

Today has gone OK so far, & we could do with a good Day Two in Mere's SA v NZ Cricket bet to round it off nicely.