Tips for Tikay

[henrik777]

After managing to swerve my first winning bet, I would like to offer a second Tikay.

Leicester City v Forest:  Both Teams to Score, 5/6 Blue Square / 888

I think the price here is much nearer the 4/6 that is generally on offer.  In both teams last 6 games, all but one have resulted in both teams scoring.  Since O' Driscoll has joined the Forest coaching staff Forest are playing more flowing football, Leicester concede 1.25 a game and just over 1 a gamne at home (20 in 19) - and there last four games have averaged over 4 goals.  I really cannot see this bet not copping - the only doubt I have is the 4-0 mauling given my Leicester early in the season, however Forest were a different team then.

Away we go, Shauny......

ON, £50 @ 5/6, with Blue Square. I did NOT use my Free Bet I have with them.


Both teams to score @ 5/6 
Market
 Teams to Score
 
Event
 English Championship
Leicester City v Nottingham Forest
2012-03-27 19:45:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £50.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £50.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-03-27 16:57:12
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000008

Madness. You should've used your free bet.

If the bet loses you are £50 cold hard cash down. Had you used the free bet you'd only have lost a free bet.

Nuts.

Sandy

[MereNovice]

West Indies 150-7.
They scored 5 sixes, all by Kieron Pollard.
We're struggling!

[claypole]

Let's hope my poker better than my tipping - odds on nil nil after I tipped that up

[MereNovice]

West Indies 150-7.
They scored 5 sixes, all by Kieron Pollard.
We're struggling!

Australia need 42 of 43 balls and we need one more six.
Watson just out caught in the deep trying to get our bet home.

[MereNovice]

Six!!!We have a winner.

[Dubai]

What price would you have bet most sixes, Aus, WI, draw? No looking for clues

[Dubai]

Let's hope my poker better than my tipping - odds on nil nil after I tipped that up

Marvellous!!! U owe me a couple bets now

[MereNovice]

What price would you have bet most sixes, Aus, WI, draw? No looking for clues

Tricky one for me.
It would be dependent on who wins the toss for one thing but I'll assume pre-toss odds given an equal likelihood of either team batting first.
Australia had more batsmen likely to hit sixes while West Indies had Pollard and Sammy.
Once Samuels was out of the West Indies team, I'd give Australia a definite edge. His omission caught me on the hop and I still don't know why he wasn't picked.

Some strike rates for the main players, the figures are the number of balls faced to hit a six in T20Is on average:

Watson   11
Warner    16
Wade       17
M. Hussey 18
D. Hussey  18

Charles 33
Smith 32
(Samuels 14)
Dwayne Bravo 19
Darren Bravo 27
Pollard 19
Sammy 17

Charles, Smith and Darren Bravo have only hit 10 sixes between them so not a great sample size.

Anyway, to answer your question:
Australia         7/5
West Indies    2/1
Draw              3/1


I wouldn't know where to look for any actual bookmaker's odds now that the event is over so you can have a good snigger at my effort!

[Dubai]

Well the draw was 11-2/6-1, so price the other 2 up to roughly 100% and u wont be far wrong in making a market

Ur odds would suggest 4-5 Aus, 11-2 draw, 11-8 Windies or thereabouts

Market was actually in reverse- Aus were 13-8, Windies 4-6. Probably was better value given ur analysis than backing over 12.5 (ps I backed it after reading what you wrote )

Only found it a min before start so didnt post but cheers

[MereNovice]

Well the draw was 11-2/6-1, so price the other 2 up to roughly 100% and u wont be far wrong in making a market

Ur odds would suggest 4-5 Aus, 11-2 draw, 11-8 Windies or thereabouts

Market was actually in reverse- Aus were 13-8, Windies 4-6. Probably was better value given ur analysis than backing over 12.5 (ps I backed it after reading what you wrote )

Only found it a min before start so didnt post but cheers

You're welcome.

Looks like I'm never going to make a professional odds compiler then.
I'd have thought that the odds on the draw would be shorter than 6/1 given we were looking at 12 to 14 sixes being about right (according to the bookies) and six or seven apiece being likely outcomes.
I didn't even look at the odds for most sixes as I think who batted first would be a big factor and I wanted to give tikay a tip he could place before he started work. Once Samuels was not selected, I should have looked because I think that Australia were clear favourites then. (I was watching Sharapova at the time so I missed a trick there for sure).
Maybe home advantage is a factor but it's not one that I considered.

[MANTIS01]

I agree Sharapova can be distracting

[tikay]

What price would you have bet most sixes, Aus, WI, draw? No looking for clues

Tricky one for me.
It would be dependent on who wins the toss for one thing but I'll assume pre-toss odds given an equal likelihood of either team batting first.
Australia had more batsmen likely to hit sixes while West Indies had Pollard and Sammy.
Once Samuels was out of the West Indies team, I'd give Australia a definite edge. His omission caught me on the hop and I still don't know why he wasn't picked.

Some strike rates for the main players, the figures are the number of balls faced to hit a six in T20Is on average:

Watson   11
Warner    16
Wade       17
M. Hussey 18
D. Hussey  18

Charles 33
Smith 32
(Samuels 14)
Dwayne Bravo 19
Darren Bravo 27
Pollard 19
Sammy 17

Charles, Smith and Darren Bravo have only hit 10 sixes between them so not a great sample size.

Anyway, to answer your question:
Australia         7/5
West Indies    2/1
Draw              3/1


I wouldn't know where to look for any actual bookmaker's odds now that the event is over so you can have a good snigger at my effort!

Loved Dub's question, Mere's "workings", & the reveal. More of the same, please.

[tikay]

Account Update as @ 6am Wednesday 28th March. There was no update on Tuesday, & I may have missed a bet or two due to workload elsewhere, & heavy activity itt, so correct me if you spot any errors.


March Account.

Investments;

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

Chompy, Cloudy Lane, Chelters, £25 (lost)

Bobby, Leishman, Golf (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet relegation, (£50, unsettled)

Camel, Al Ferof, Chelters, (£50, lost)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1, £50 (WON, returned £91.67)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2, £66 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3, £110 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts bet # 4, £48,  (WON, returned £88)

Snowball, Cricket, £50 (lost)

Mere, RL Scorer, £50 (WON, returned £110)

Whisper, 'Boro, £25, (WON returned £48.50)

maldini, WBA, £25 (WON, returned £82.67)

Ralph, Rory Lay, £120 (lost)

Dubai, CL Goals, £75 (WON, returned £135)

Dubai, CL Result, £60 (WON, returned £129)

Mere, Cricket, SA v NZ, £50 (lost)

Chumpy, Blackpool football, £100 (lost)

Dubai, Darts, £120 (Lost)

Simon G, Chelt Top Trainer, £50 (WON, returned £200)

Dean, San Antonio, £100 (lost)

ChipRich, Brighton, £100 (WON)

Tighty, Arsenal Novelty Bet, £30 (lost)

redarmi, BM CL lay (£22, lost)

ACE2M, PP FB enhanced, (£20, lost)

MahagonyVic, Finians Rainbow (£50 EW, WON, returned £412.50)

Pokercade, The New One, (£25EW, lost)

Chompy, Bilbao v Man U (£50, WON, returned £143.75)

Tighty, Napoli, (£50 x 2, lost)

Redarmi, OW & TS (£40x2, lost)

Bobby, Gold Cup “WO” top 2 (£50, lost)

Fraser B, Wigan, DNB (£100, returned £100)

Horseplayer, $$ Mick (£50, lost)

Horseplayer, Pugnacity, (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet, (£50 @11/2, unsettled)

Dazzler, Man C, (£50, WON, returned £95.45)

ChipRich, Leeds, (£50, lost)

Fraser, QPR v ‘Pool, (£100, lost)

Tighty,  Blackpool, (£80, lost)

Horseplayer horse, (£40, lost)

Jaffa, Hornets, (£50, lost)

Mere, Philander best bowler (£50 @ 5/2, WON)

Mere, SA to win Test, (£50 @ evens, lost)

Camel, Sunderland (£100 @ WON, returned £200)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1 (£60 @ 5/6, WON, returned £110)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2 (£45 @ 4/9 & 5/6, WON, returned £119.11)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3 (£60 @ 6/5, WON, returned £110)

Silo, Wolfsburg, (£50 @ 11/10, WON, returned £102.50)

Dazzler, Wigan, (£25 @ 9/1, WON, returned £250)

Bobby, Rochdale, (£100, lost)

Tighty, SL v MCC, (£50 @ 13/8, unsettled)

Mondy, Newc v L'Pool over 2.5 goals (£50 @ 2.06, unsettled)

Jaffa, 2 NBA Scoring bets, (2 x £25, both lost)

Mere, 6's, WI v Aus, (£50 @ 4/5, WON) * - USED FREE BET

Fraser, Sheff U v C'Field (£50 @ 8/15, unsettled)

Claypole, Both Teams to score, (£50, lost)

Total invested = £3,276.00
_____________________________

Returns


PL Darts # 1, (Dubai) £91.67

PL Darts # 4, (Dubai) £88

RL, Scorer, (Mere), £110

M'Boro (Whisper) £48.50

WBA (maldini), £82.67

Arsenal Goals (Dubai) £135

Arsenal Result (Dubai) £129

Brighton (ChipRich), £206

Cheltenham (Mahagony Vic) £412.50

Simon G (Top Trainer) £200

Chompy, (Bilbao) £143.75

Fraser B (Wigan) £100

Man C, Dazzler, £95.45

Dubai, Darts, £110

Dubai, Darts, £119.11

Dubai, Darts, £110

Silo, Wolfsburg, £102.50

Dazzler, Wigan, £250

Camel, Sunderland, £200

Mere, 6's, Wi - Aus, £90

Mere, Phil Ander, £175  

Total Returns = £2,999.98

__________________________

March Profit/Loss = £3,276 minus £3,000 = £276 loss. (Includes £300 cost of unsettled bets)

6 Unsettled bets , Anderson, Barnet (x 2) , SL Test, NU v L'pool, Sheff U, (6 bets), = £300      

[MereNovice]

I think you need to account for the freebet differently.
At the moment, your "statement" gives the impression that you have £50 less than you actually have.

[tikay]

What happened?

The losers;

Mere's SA to beat NZ, not sure how this lost, the narrow failure to force the follow-on being key.

Jeff K's two NBA bets both bombed, though Hibbert really should have got us over the line, missing crucial free throws. A Kimber NBA winner expected any day....

Claypoles "both teams to score" lost.

The winners;

Mere, Philander best SA Bowler, £50 @ 5/2, excellent tipping, with Philander @ a great price considering he would have "won" this bet 5 from the last 7.

Mere, WI v Aus, over 12.6 sixes, another great spot by Mere.

Unsettled;

In addition to the long-running ones, we have....

Tighty, SA to beat England@ 13/8. This has been all over the place, but a result inside 3 days remains possible, & we are still very much alive, with England likely to need close to 300 in their 2nd innings on a rogue pitch. The odds on SL have been as low as 1/4, but it is very swongy. Betfair currently go SL 1.4, England 3.35, Draw 200.

Fraser, Sheff U v C'Field, this is tonight.

Mondy, thread debut, over 2.5 goals, Newc v L'Pool, Sunday.

Barnet? Only action was Bradford last night, who lost, but this has only marginal benefit. Next pertinent action is Friday, when Barnet are home to Miss Chamberlain's high-flying Torquay. An away win would be delicious. 

Bets to place.

Methuselah's Ladies Golf wager (Miss Hedwell), which we'll place today. Very surprised Mere does not have an interest in female golf. 

Missed in action.

Two bets were missed.

The Man U Fulham bet, as I missed the price, so declined the action. A lucky swerve.

The Warwbastard horse bet, I was unavailable. Again, a fortunate swerve.