Tips for Tikay

[henrik777]

Love the Keith bet of Swansea......can't go into too much detail as top why for reasons some of you know but Blackburn are most definitely not scrapping for their life.  Swansea are the better team and possibly even more motivated after 4 losses on the spin.  They should be 4/5 imo and I would not back Blackburn with counterfeit

Basically this.

The one team you need to be 100% motivated against and prepared to put in an extra shift against is Swansea because you are going to have to run like you've never run before.

I'm certain that at least a couple (if not more) or the Blackburn team have lost confidence in and are no longer playing for him. More like they are playing out the season and waiting for a move in the summer.

Add to that the highest regard I have for Brendan Rodgers. He simply won't let Swansea's fantastic season end with a wimper. I heard there was a bit of a lock in at Loftus Road afted their abject display against QPR and maybe for the first time this season BR got the hairdryer out. I expect a massively improved display against Blackburn.

Odds against is all wrong imo. I expect 1.8 or maybe even shorter by kickoff.

This is just about my strongest Premier League selection of the season so far.

That sounds to me like a very broad hint, supported by other Elders, too.

Time for some backbone, courage, & given our limited 'roll, a touch of degeneracy.

Let's go daft, & have another £100.

ON

£100 with Blue Square @ 21/20.

Selection Swansea City @ 21/20 
Market
 Win/Draw/Win
 
Event
 English Premier League
Swansea City v Blackburn Rovers
2012-04-14 15:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £100.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £100.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-04-13 08:28:06
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000022

Winner 3-0.

Sandy

[MereNovice]

Macclesfield 1 Crewe 2.

Final score.
Macclesfield 2 Crewe 2.

Position    Team    Played    Goal Difference    Points
21    Plymouth    43    -16    44
22    Barnet    43    -29    40
23    Macclesfield    43    -20    37
24    Hereford    43    -24    37

[bobby1]

Great call Keith, well done mate.

Macclesfield nicking a point might make the difference too.

[Sighmuns]

Thanks for sharing the tip Camel. Good day for Tikay and his thread!

[MereNovice]

I have hesitated for a long time before posting this as in all likelihood this will be a losing bet,and I don't like to give out losing bets. But if we have learnt anything in this thread then it is that " value " is everything. So my recommended losing bet for today is this:

Rugby Union.  Worcester Warriors v Exeter Chiefs match to be a draw.

You can get odds of 20-1 on Betfair but 18-1 on Betfred is acceptable but use very strict bankroll management so would only say £10.

This match meets nearly all of my criteria for this type of bet. 2 closely matched teams but with the better team playing away, neither side has to win, and both teams concede and score few points so it will hopefully come down to  kicking penalties. I would rather the weather was cold and rainy but we can't always have everything in our favour.

In defence of my recommendation I will say this. I have placed draw bets on about 40 matches of rugby union/league this season and have won on 5 of them at odds of 18-1 or greater.

That's todays "Fun Bet"!

Got £10 with BetVictor @ 18/1. If it ends up 46-0, you are so gonna join Teacake on the naughty step.

ON

Worcester v Exeter
Draw
(To Win Match)
Odds:  18/1
Stake:  10.00
Possible Return:  190.00

Remarkable result at Sixways.

Worcester 26 Exeter 31

Exeter scored two tries in the last two minutes - very close.

[Ant040689]

First tip is a win, could get used to this. I somehow missed the Swansea bet from only reading from yesterday's page onwards. Would have been a nice double. Oh well.

[bobby1]

Hi Tony,

I think a £100 on PSG to beat Auxerre at 11/10 with Stan James is a decent value bet. The price is actually under that already on Betfair and in Asia.

There is currently 36 points between these two teams with Auxerre bottom of the league and PSG second. Auxerre really need a win to have a chance of avoiding relegation. PSG have been floundering a little since Ancelotti took over but its now crunch time as the surprise team of the season Montpellier are three points clear at the top.

Their issues recently seem to be with a change of tactics and defensive personnel, going forward their main strikers have failed to shine after a good start but at the end of the day they are miles clear of Auxerre in points and ability and the 11/10 will certainly be shorter on kick off. Team news is ok, only Sissoko who was stupidly sent off last week is missing, tho Ancelloti seems to be playing silly buggers a little with his forwards I think he has to play the strongest team he can as  the league season has only 8 games left.

[tikay]

Update, 10.30am, Sunday April 15th

Investments

Fraser, Blackburn DNB, (lost, £40)

DoubleUp, Westwood, Masters, (£20, WON (placed), returned £60)

horseplayer, SL opening p'ship, (£30, WON, returned £56)

horseplayer, Masters Debut, Garrigus (£10 @ 16/1, BS, lost)

hummuspie, Swindon, Swindon, (WON, £50 @ 17/20, returned £92.50)

Dazzler, Bolton, (£25 @ 7/4, Bet365, lost)

Eso Kral, Walsall, (£25 @ Evens, BS, WON, returned £50)

Matt50, Mumbai Indians, IPL, (£25 @ 9/2, BS, unsettled)

Silo, Chelsea, CL, (£25 @ 1.75, Betfair, WON, returned £43.50)

Bobby, Cantlay, (£3 EW, LOST) (converted to £3 EW from $5 EW)

Bobby, Cantlay, £5 @ 960, Betfair, lost)  

ACE2M, Rose, (£25 @ 7/2, BetVictor, lost)

Fraser, Hull, (£50 @ 13/10, BetVictor, lost)

Tighty, LAY SL-Eng Draw (£49 to win £25, Betfair, WON, returned £74)

Henrik, 72 hole MB Carbera etc, (£25, lost)

tikay, 18 hole MB, Carbera (lost)

Fraser, Wigan, DNB (£10, lost)

Fraser, Norwich v Everton DNB (£25, Draw, returned £25)

Jennymar, Over 2.5 goals, Coventry (£25 @ 4/5, WON, returned £45)

ACE2M, Westwood Top 5 (£25, returned £52.88)

Horneris, Stoke, (lost, £40)

RickBFA, Wycombe, (£40, lost)

hector62, Catalan Dragons (£50 @ 11/10, WON, returned £105)

sparrow, Malaga, (£50, BetFred, lost)

Dubai, Barney Ave, (£100 @ 8/11, BetVictor, WON, returned £173) - see note to follow in "Summary"

Camel, Swansea, (£100 @ 21/20, Blue Square, WON, returned £205)

Horneris, Burnley, (£60 @ 21/20, BetVictor, lost)

Teacake, Collingwood Thugs, (£50 @ 21/20, BetVictor, WE GOT BATTERED)

Dazzler, Chelsea DNB, (£50 @21/20, Wm Hill, unsettled)

Camel, Swansea press (£100 @ 21/20, Blue Square, WON, returned £205)

MahagonyVic, Wishful, (£25 EW, placed, returned £87.50)

hector62, Rugby Draw (£10, lost)

ant, West Brom, (£25, WON, returned £56.25)



TOTAL Invested (April) = £1,245
________________________________

Returns

horseplayer, SL openers, £56

hummuspie, Swindon, £92.50

Silo, Chelsea, £43.50

Tighty, SL-England, £74

Fraser, Norwich, DNB, £25

Jennymar, Cov v Posh Goals, £45

Eso Kral, Walsall, £50

DoubleUp, Westwood, £60

ACE2M, Westwood Top 5, £52.88

hector62, Catalan Dragons, £105

Dubai, Darts, £173

MahagonyVic, Wishful, £87.50

ant, WBA, £56.25

Camel, Swansea, £205

Camel, Swansea, £205

Total returns £1,330.63

_________________________________


Profit/Loss April

£1,245 - £1,331 = £86.00 profit, including £85 unsettled.

Unsettled bets carried forward - Anderson, Barnet (x2),£150, all of which has been accounted for in prev months accounts.

Unsettled bets April, Mumbai IPL, Chelsea, (2 bets, £85)

[tikay]

Daily Summary.

Excellent day yesterday, & we moved into profit.

Highlight was Camel's "best value bet of the season", Swansea, which won like a good thing should. It was the biggest thread bet yet, & cruised in. Thanks Mr H.

Ant made his thread debut with a winner, too, West Brom. I thought the value & strength was marginal, so only had £25, but no regrets, we must be careful with the 'roll, or the music stiops.

The Burnley bet just failed, being a 1-1 draw, to prevent a Saturday football clean sweep, unlucky Brent.

We had a fun bet on the Rugby, from hector, which was nip & tuck all the way, & only narrowly missed, too.

We only have two unsettled wagers now, Mumbai in the IPL, & Chelsea today, which is at 6pm.

I'm pretty pleased to have escaped Grand National week unscathed, in a little profit even, & delighted there were no recommends for the National itself, personally, I don't think it is a good betting medium.

All good so far, we are taking some time to lose this 'roll, though it would be easy to lose the discipline & start punting daily, purely for the sake of punting. Ain't gonna happen.

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

I think a £100 on PSG to beat Auxerre at 11/10 with Stan James is a decent value bet. The price is actually under that already on Betfair and in Asia.

There is currently 36 points between these two teams with Auxerre bottom of the league and PSG second. Auxerre really need a win to have a chance of avoiding relegation. PSG have been floundering a little since Ancelotti took over but its now crunch time as the surprise team of the season Montpellier are three points clear at the top.

Their issues recently seem to be with a change of tactics and defensive personnel, going forward their main strikers have failed to shine after a good start but at the end of the day they are miles clear of Auxerre in points and ability and the 11/10 will certainly be shorter on kick off. Team news is ok, only Sissoko who was stupidly sent off last week is missing, tho Ancelloti seems to be playing silly buggers a little with his forwards I think he has to play the strongest team he can as  the league season has only 8 games left.

Nice analysis, thanks Phil.

Lets do it.

ON

£100 @ 11/10, Stan James, to return £210.

[tikay]

For that "bobby" bet, only Stan James (@ time of Posting) still go 11/10, but there is plenty of 21/20 available.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/france/le-championnat/auxerre-v-paris-saint-germain/winner

[Karabiner]

Guess who won the Malaysian Open just a few days after getting short-headed in The Masters.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/17719216

[tikay]

Guess who won the Malaysian Open just a few days after getting short-headed in The Masters.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/17719216

Wow. Proper one-hit wonder, him.

Hope you were on him Ralph. I know you had 11p on him in the Masters, or somesuch!

[Karabiner]

Guess who won the Malaysian Open just a few days after getting short-headed in The Masters.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/17719216

Wow. Proper one-hit wonder, him.

Hope you were on him Ralph. I know you had 11p on him in the Masters, or somesuch!

No I wasn't actually but I'm still delighted for him as I really like both his game and his attitude.

[tikay]

For that "bobby" bet, only Stan James (@ time of Posting) still go 11/10, but there is plenty of 21/20 available.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/france/le-championnat/auxerre-v-paris-saint-germain/winner

The 11/10 @ Stan James has, mysteriously, all gone, but there is plenty of 21/20 remaining elsewhere.