Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

superb tip dazzler well done

what a superb performance that was (i am not a fan of any premier league side btw) to see players like gary caldwell and connor salmon so obviously learn from a manager who wants the ball played on the floor at all times is refreshing

[tikay]

Well swerved Tikay.  That's where Banzai betting gets you. Amazing result really.  You'd think the Arse, Sperz and Chelsea were trying to avoid playing in the Champions League next season.

As it turned out, yes. Sorry for the lads who lost on Arsenal, really, but pleased for Dazzy, who is never afraid to air contentious views for long odds against stuff, it's his speciality act.

Banzai Bet indeed. WP him.

Hindsight makes the bet look almost obvious, but we don't have that.

No regrets for me, either, the match had been recommended every which way, I got all bimbly, & was happy to avoid it in the end, my head was spinning!

[hector62]

I came on the thread earlier to give backing to the Wigan tip as long as proper bankroll bet sizing was to be used, and I convinced myself that Wigan at 11-1 was a pretty fair bet. One Banzai  bet later and it's time to celebrate with a bowl of honey nut clusters.

If Arsene does need an elderly central defender then he can pm me.

[tikay]

I came on the thread earlier to give backing to the Wigan tip as long as proper bankroll bet sizing was to be used, and I convinced myself that Wigan at 11-1 was a pretty fair bet. One Banzai  bet later and it's time to celebrate with a bowl of honey nut clusters.

If Arsene does need an elderly central defender then he can pm me.

Ahh, it was you - I could not remember, but I know someone did. Well done Sir, honey nut clusters, if only we'd known.......

It would have been just a tenner, £25 max, if I had got on.

There'll be other times, hopefully.

[bobby1]

superb tip dazzler well done

what a superb performance that was (i am not a fan of any premier league side btw) to see players like gary caldwell and connor salmon so obviously learn from a manager who wants the ball played on the floor at all times is refreshing

I actually laughed when I heard they had signed Connor Salmon, he was ok at Killie but never in my dreams did I think he would make a Prem player. James Macarthur and James McCarthy were highly rated  at Hamilton but again its some step up to playing well in the Prem.

[Dubai]

Nice one, funnily enough I thought Wigan were pretty poor in the first half that they won and very good in the second half that they drew. Funny old game. Unluckily I always bet my opinion, luckily only one brave lad took me up on it- my money always here to be won

[TheDazzler]

Cheers all.
I can't complain with Tikay swerving as there was a lot of valid opposition.
I think there is probably still value in Wigan yet though. 15/4 to win at Fulham on Boylesports might be worth £25.

Edit: Now that the euphoria has worn off, hmmm, Fulham are in decent form too. Maybe scratch that one. Maybe £25 dnb @ 5/2 with Skybet might be wiser.

[tikay]

Daily Update, 8.30am Tuesday April 17th.

NO action yesterday, the account remains as per Page 234.

[tikay]

Daily Summary.

"All Talk"

6 pages of great chatter yesterday, but not a penny placed on anything.

The whole day centred on the Arsenal-Wigan match. This morning, we could put it down as a "miss", as Wigan were tipped to win, but in fact that applies to every conceivable permutation of result, as recommends came in every which way for the match.

On balance, I could not see enough value in anything, & whilst I was tempted to have a Banzai on Dazzy's suggestion, there were too many wise counsel going the other way.

Well done to Dazzy though, what a star, & hopefully a few got on. Me, I'm just happy that the fund never suffered any losses on the game.

[tikay]

The only proposed bet posted up for today came from he of the personalised - sorry, "cherished" - number plate, Chompy.

He  - a Peterborough fan, he even goes & watches them, he's that fanatical - suggested Southampton to beat Posh tonight, @ 5/6.

All the 5/6 seems to have gone though, see.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/peterborough-v-southampton/winner

3/4, or threrabouts, seems best at present. Peterborough, meanwhile, have drifted to a most tempting 4/1.

Let the dithering commence.

Away from football, quite a few tips seem to be coming in for the World Snooker Championship, which commences this weekend. Hopefully, one of our sleuths can find a special or two there, though none seem available at present, just Outrights or Individual matches.  I fully expect Henrik to come up with a stats based snooker equivelant of his Masters "hole in one" bet. 

TV stuff tonight includes CL (Bayern v Real), & a titanic clash in British Basketball, being "Sheffield Sharks v Glasgow Rocks". Quite so.

[TightEnd]

Major Cricketing Opportunity

The County Championship is split into two divisions

9 counties each.

Look at the results so far this season in Division One

http://www.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div1-2012/engine/series/542413.html

Notice anything?

No draws

Why might that be?

Well firstly the season started at the beginning of April. Questionable weather leads to questionable pitches/bowler friendly conditions

but there has also been a major structural change taking place in the UK County game, in that the ECB has banned the use of the heavy roller in County Championship matches

Why is that important?

Well the pitch is rolled between every innings. The side going into bat had the choice of the

heavy roller (tikay porn alert, shameless attempt to get him to like the bet)

Click to see full-size image.

or the light roller



Batting sides would usually choose the heavy roller as it flattens the pitch for longer. Obviously. Easier for batting.

Now they can't.

"The days when an English cricket team captain could take the fear out of a lively wicket by using a heavy roller are numbered.

In a bid to resuscitate the ailing county championship, English cricket administrators have unveiled rule changes that ban the big rollers and reward wins rather than boring draws. "

http://cricketnext.in.com/live/news/heavy-rollers-banned-in-english-county-ties/45709-13.html

So what happens now? pitches stay bouncier for longer and worsen quicker, as the heavy roller cannot compact the worsening pitches (cracks, bowlers footmarks, rough etc etc) on 3rd and 4th days

Earlier this week Surrey failed to chase 140 to beat Middlesex at Lords. Yes there was bad batting, but that's not unusual. Many cricketers these days are losing the art of building a long innings due to the prevalence of one day cricket (especially in Surrey's case, lots of young blades)

Look at this

""It was one of the worst wickets I've played on," Surrey's captain Rory Hamilton-Brown said. "It went up and down, the seam movement was so exaggerated, people were getting hit and two first-class sides scored not many more than a hundred. It made for a battle out there." "

I think there is money to be made laying draws all season in the county championship

The next four matches are as follows

http://beta.betfair.com/cricket/event?id=26834883 you can lay the draw at 2-1

http://beta.betfair.com/cricket/event?id=26834880 you can lay the draw at 2-1

http://beta.betfair.com/cricket/event?id=26834881 you can lay the draw at 2-1

http://beta.betfair.com/cricket/event?id=26834882 you can lay the draw at 2-1

The weather forecast for Thurs-Sunday is mixed, but what you might lose in playing time, you'll win in nasty batting conditions


Recommend £25 lays on all four, with a view to reevaluating through the season depending on market volume.



In essence we have three trends converging

- Early season conditions
- Batsmen's techniques undermined by one day cricket
- Structural change to pitch conditions

If you can lay the draws, get on.

[tikay]

Terrific one, Tighty!

[tikay]

ON


No dithering or bimbling today!

Lay # 1

Waiting (unmatched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Surrey v Worcestershire
The DrawMatch Odds
    3 £18.01 £36.02
Partially Matched
Bet Ref: 19417847679 Bet submitted: 2012-04-17T09:16:11.000Z
At In-Play  Cancel  Keep  
Placed (matched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Surrey v Worcestershire
The DrawMatch Odds
    2.99 £6.99 £13.91

Lay # 2

Waiting (unmatched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Lancashire v Warwickshire
The DrawMatch Odds
    2.98 £20.01 £39.62
Partially Matched
Bet Ref: 19417858122 Bet submitted: 2012-04-17T09:18:23.000Z
At In-Play  Cancel  Keep  
Placed (matched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Lancashire v Warwickshire
The DrawMatch Odds
    2.98 £4.99 £9.88

Lay # 3

Waiting (unmatched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Middlesex v Durham
The DrawMatch Odds
    3 £16.04 £32.08
Partially Matched
Bet Ref: 19417862801 Bet submitted: 2012-04-17T09:19:21.000Z
At In-Play  Cancel  Keep  
Placed (matched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Middlesex v Durham
The DrawMatch Odds
    3 £8.96 £17.92
Partially Matched
Bet Ref: 19417862801M Bet matched: 2012-04-17T09:19:21.000Z


  

Lay # 4

Waiting (unmatched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Nottinghamshire v Somerset
The DrawMatch Odds
    3 £18.01 £36.02
Partially Matched
Bet Ref: 19417866260 Bet submitted: 2012-04-17T09:20:07.000Z
At In-Play  Cancel  Keep  
Placed (matched)Lay Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Nottinghamshire v Somerset
The DrawMatch Odds
    2.99 £6.99 £13.91
Partially Matched
 

[tikay]

Helpful Hint for those recommending bets.

Upload a pictire of a Heavy Roller, or similar pervy stuff, & it concentrates my mind. Tighty knows me too well.

Great bets those, imo, as each one gives us a decent length sweat.

Well done Tighty.

[Doobs]

Better get you when you are feeling decisive.

Chelsea to beat Barcelona at 5.3 on betfair.  Barcelona are always a bit overrated in my view.  Not sure they are even the best team in Spain currently.  Chelsea appear to be improving and are bound to be up for this having been "robbed" in the same competition by the same opposition a couple of years ago.  Chelsea have home advantage.

I simply think 5.3 is too big.  Don't listen to the Messi is god blah blah.