Tips for Tikay

[JaffaCake]

Cool, here's the betting preview I wrote for BettingOn.... I ended up predicting San Antonio to win it all, not sure I'm that convinced but they have as good a chance as any and are a nice price. Bad thing for our lay of Miami was Derrick Rose, MVP and star for Chicago, the team who finished with the best record in the reg season, go down with a season ending injury in their game one. Here it is....I'm going looking for Tom now!

http://bettingon.com/articles/2012/04/27/nba-playoffs-2012-betting

[JaffaCake]

Like Atlanta tonight because games between these two have been extremely tight, think all three regular season games were less than 5 points, 2-1 to Boston, and Atlanta started the series (7 games in a series) winning game on 83-74 at home. Game 2 is tonight, also in Atlanta, 0035 tip I think, but most importantly, the NBA has just announced a suspension for Rajon Rondo, Boston's point guard and playmaker, for this game for misbehaving in game one. They're already without Ray Allen, the other starting guard, so they're now at the bare bones against a team they were maybe not as good as to start with....need Josh Smith to have a big game for the Hawks but he da man!

"misbehaving"? What he do?

I haven't seen it but it was described as a 'chest bump' on the ref. Can't have been a big deal coz he has already had a suspension for throwing a ball at a ref so if he'd have done anything too bad they'd have chucked the book at him

[tikay]

Like Atlanta tonight because games between these two have been extremely tight, think all three regular season games were less than 5 points, 2-1 to Boston, and Atlanta started the series (7 games in a series) winning game on 83-74 at home. Game 2 is tonight, also in Atlanta, 0035 tip I think, but most importantly, the NBA has just announced a suspension for Rajon Rondo, Boston's point guard and playmaker, for this game for misbehaving in game one. They're already without Ray Allen, the other starting guard, so they're now at the bare bones against a team they were maybe not as good as to start with....need Josh Smith to have a big game for the Hawks but he da man!

"misbehaving"? What he do?

I haven't seen it but it was described as a 'chest bump' on the ref. Can't have been a big deal coz he has already had a suspension for throwing a ball at a ref so if he'd have done anything too bad they'd have chucked the book at him

Ahh, the old chest bump.

[JaffaCake]

Thanks teeks, would rather have had a few days to research and write etc but basically had to be turned round in two hours so hasn't even been proofed but think on a betting site like that the logic and reccos are more imp that a stray apostrophe etc. Chest bumping is just what us cool kids do to greet each other so not sure what the problem is tbh

[geordieneil]

Thanks teeks, would rather have had a few days to research and write etc but basically had to be turned round in two hours so hasn't even been proofed but think on a betting site like that the logic and reccos are more imp that a stray apostrophe etc. Chest bumping is just what us cool kids do to greet each other so not sure what the problem is tbh

this game is tomorrow night? right?

[JaffaCake]

yeh it's tomoro, sorry got confused, some sites list them as today when they're tomoro when they start just after midnight. Guess it woulda been a bit late to ban a guy, that news literally came out on twitter just before I posted, tho guess it was pretty likely he'd get a ban...maybe shoulda got in earlier....still, like the bet

[geordieneil]

yeh it's tomoro, sorry got confused, some sites list them as today when they're tomoro when they start just after midnight. Guess it woulda been a bit late to ban a guy, that news literally came out on twitter just before I posted, tho guess it was pretty likely he'd get a ban...maybe shoulda got in earlier....still, like the bet

I watched the shove the other night....it wasn't anything serious but it was very stupid, the ref gave a dubious foul and he over reacted and half stumbled into the ref, but the chest shove was blatant, and you just can't do that to any official without escaping a ban.

   I've backed the hawks with a -3.5 (5/6 with b365)  they dominated last night and should win easily, was tempted with a bigger handicap, but not after last nights clippers v the grizzlies....went to kip thinking my bets safe 19 points up near ht.....log on to cash out my winnings this morning to see they came back and won 99-98 FML......could of layed at 1.03 haha

[tikay]

Daily Update, as @ 8am, Tuesday 1st May.

Today's Daily Update will be a little different, as we mark the end of Month Three.

Yesterday, perhaps unwisely, we had no less than 6 investments on the same game, though some were duplicates, even allowing for that, we had 4 different bets on the big game. We got away with it though, & turned a profit of around £80 on the evening, & day as a whole. (We had nothing else yesterday).

[tikay]

We made a nice profit again in April, the third month on the bounce we have generated positive numbers.

The numbers from commencement to date are as follows. These are NET trading figures. Unsettled bets have all been moved into the May Account.

February Profit = £119.17

March Profit = £187.57

April Profit = £792.37

Total Profit to date = £1,100.01.

These numbers can be seen in detail if you click the "Sports" Tab on this spreadsheet......

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4

[tikay]

Amounts wagered each month were......

February - £1,795.75 (ROI = 6.64%)

March - £3,501.00 (ROI = 5.36%)

April £4,091.62 (ROI = 19.39%)

TOTAL wagered = £9,388.37 (ROI = 11.72%).

[tikay]

Number of bets placed were as follows.....

February = 37

March = 68

April = 98

TOTAL = 203

[tikay]

As of today, becasuse I said we would do this IF we made a third successive monthly profit, the notional 'roll increases to £3,000. "Notional" because the roll does not exist in reality, it is only there as a measuring & control device.

As a result, the Maximum Bet increases to £150.

Max Bets are far & few between, & will stay that way - we had, I think, only 8 in April - but if the value can be spotted, we'll do them whenever necessary.

[tikay]

We have so far punted on 21 different sports.

Football is far and away the busiest activity, with 82 bets, the next nearest being horseracing, with 20 bets.

The biggest contributor to profit is football, too, earning a net profit of £1.076.97 to date. Effectively, ALL our profit has come from football, with everything else cancelling itself out. We need more "non-football" specialists!

The Football Season is about to end, we have about one month left, & then Euro 12, but I fancy we will struggle unless another profitable sport can be identified. Non-football experts, time to step up to the plate.

[tikay]

Top 3 profits by sport;

Football - £1,077 PROFIT

Darts - £365 PROFIT

AFL -  £117.50 PROFIT

Top 3 losses by sport;

Basketball £244 LOSS

Tennis £117 LOSS

F1 £110 LOSS

All figures lack "sample size", except, perhaps, football, but it's something worth noting, aside from football, & overall, we have made zilch, though Darts has been a good earner.

I have missed numerous winners of course, but I think that mostly cancels itself out due to missed losers, too. It will always be the case that I'll wrongly reject, or miss, winners, & does not bother me one iota, it's the nature of the betting beast.

It's also the case that dozens of people make recommends, & only one person - me - makes the final choice, so I'm bound to get a goodly number wrong. It's been a feature of the thread to date that gentle ribbing & humour aside, there have hardly been any complaints about what does & does not get selected, as it's all done in good faith. There has also been almost no Shreeves-esque comments about the ones I, or others, got wrong. We make an exception of course for MANTIS.

[tikay]

MereGrumpy maintains the spreadsheet, big thanks to him, it would not work without that.

He has slightly amernded the way we account for "unsettled" bets. These have all been moved into the May Account - so in effect, we start with £375 invested already. That is approx 12.5% of our increased 'roll!

The unsettled bets can all be viewed easily now simply by clicking the "May" tab on the spreadsheet.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6

They cost us £375, & have a theoretical max value of several thousand, in real terms, a great deal less. I would not sell them at the carrying cost though, as I think we have some decent value there.

The carried over unsettled bets do not appear to include the Barnet bet, or the Anderson 180's bet, probably because of how we accounted for them initially? I don't know the reason, but if any of them come in, we get the profit in May, I would assume.  Freeroll.