Tips for Tikay

[the sicilian]

Tikay... what kind of bets are we looking for ?  something like evens or better...NBA is hugely difficult to call..the skill sets are immense even on the worst teams. I think the trick is to do your homework on injuries,bench players etc as these are the real factors that can make a difference.

Although I take Jeffs points on board I think the injuries to the Knicks players in this game were going to be the most significant factor. TBH i don't think new York could have played any better and for 3 qtrs they overcame the obvious skill difference and injuries etc with sheer guts.. The atmosphere in the garden must have been out of this world and although home court in NBA is always an advantage, on this occasion the crowd really did have a huge impact. Miami turned over the ball horribly..some of their timing and passing was abysmal and I think this was all down to the crowd who were on them every time they had the ball.

In the end it was the injury factor that decided it. If NY had had one more of those players back so the other two big guys could have some respite then i think they may have edged it or at least taken away the spread.

One other big factor was that miami closed out Steve Novak..the best 3 point shooter in the league. he didn't get one clean look all night and scored 0 points.

On this occasion i think we had our edge....  with the NBA im learning to look for the 1 maybe two best looks rather than lots of games.. i still do accas but take the spreads that are a lot safer than the money lines trying to negate the variance... its compensated by the accumalator factor.... its paying so far as i am 14/18 on nba the past week and a bit

[tikay]

Cricket progress. Of a sort.

Middlesex: 148-2 (40.3 overs)
Worcestershire: Yet to bat

[TightEnd]

Have a little tickle on Ken to win London Mayor

Its close, very close and Ken will win a lot of second preferences from non Tory voters

Price has come in from 12-1 to 6-1 in the past hour

It might be a lot closer than that


edit into 4-1 while I am writing https://smarkets.com/politics/uk/london-mayor-2012/2012-london-mayor-overall-winner

Leave it.

[tikay]

Tikay... what kind of bets are we looking for ?   something like evens or better...NBA is hugely difficult to call..the skill sets are immense even on the worst teams. I think the trick is to do your homework on injuries,bench players etc as these are the real factors that can make a difference.

Although I take Jeffs points on board I think the injuries to the Knicks players in this game were going to be the most significant factor. TBH i don't think new York could have played any better and for 3 qtrs they overcame the obvious skill difference and injuries etc with sheer guts.. The atmosphere in the garden must have been out of this world and although home court in NBA is always an advantage, on this occasion the crowd really did have a huge impact. Miami turned over the ball horribly..some of their timing and passing was abysmal and I think this was all down to the crowd who were on them every time they had the ball.

In the end it was the injury factor that decided it. If NY had had one more of those players back so the other two big guys could have some respite then i think they may have edged it or at least taken away the spread.

One other big factor was that miami closed out Steve Novak..the best 3 point shooter in the league. he didn't get one clean look all night and scored 0 points.

On this occasion i think we had our edge....  with the NBA im learning to look for the 1 maybe two best looks rather than lots of games.. i still do accas but take the spreads that are a lot safer than the money lines trying to negate the variance... its compensated by the accumalator factor.... its paying so far as i am 14/18 on nba the past week and a bit

Winning ones!

I have no prob with Basketball ones, honest, but I doubt we are good enough to get 2 out of 3 right in the long term. I note your point about dubs & accas, but I'm fiercely opposed to that route.

When I was running my businesses, I looked every day as what we did, to see where the leaks were, see what we could try to do better. I do the same here.

Then we have the "volume (to beat variance) v very infequent argument". Volume works for many, but I don't have time to back loads of bets daily, & I'm not addicted (yet....) & personally, I prefer less bets, more selective.

The "League Table" of Tipsters has two prominent names in the Top 4 who give us one tip per week, on average. The rest of the Top Ten is made up of those who give us Tips, on average, less than once per fortnight. OK, variance & sample size distort that (we only have about 250 bets, from about 60 uniques), but it is just food for thought.

My plan is not so much to make money, as make enough to keep ticking over, & if we stay profitable, we can increase the 'roll.

BUT........

Loads of people bet different ways, it's all good, & lots of them read & back all the tips on here, so I don't want you to stop posting your bets, not at all, but please just be understanding that if I (the Thread Fund) swerves or blanks a bet, it's not personal or anything. And yes, I miss a lot of winners, (& a few losers), too.

[tikay]

Have a little tickle on Ken to win London Mayor

Its close, very close and Ken will win a lot of second preferences from non Tory voters

Price has come in from 12-1 to 6-1 in the past hour

It might be a lot closer than that


edit into 4-1 while I am writing https://smarkets.com/politics/uk/london-mayor-2012/2012-london-mayor-overall-winner

Leave it.

What? Bet on POLITICS?!

PS - Sorry - "The market is now closed". Dubai got there first. 
 

[geordieneil]

Carter v Maguire snooker semi's. Carter currently 10-6 up due to start the 3rd session at 7pm

Carter currently 1.44 on BF this looks big to me with a 4 frame lead

[tikay]

Blackpool v Birmingham


The sides have scored more than 150 goals combined this season

Blackpool attack and attack, but concede easily

Birmingham beat Blackpool 3-0 at home

Went to Blackpool and drew 2-2

Blackpool have drawn 3 of their last 4

Birmingham have drawn 4 of the last 5

Each of those seven draws were score draws

Birmingham are unbeaten in their last four matches against the Seasiders

21/10 odds about Birmingham winning or drawing a match featuring three or more goals looks good

price Ladbrokes at http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/english/blackpool-v-birmingham-e215962838#


My recommendation would be £30

Birmingham winning or drawing a match featuring three or more goals 21/10

I was getting confused by all the permutations, so I've gone with the original suggestion, & we have £30 @ 21/10 with Ladbrokes, Birmingham to win or draw, 3 or more goals in match. Not sure how logical it is, or the technical value, but its a Friday Night Fun Bet. If only Basketball were on TV in the evenings!

Thanks Rich.

ON

Selection21/10 - Birmingham to win or draw with 3 or more goals scored in the match

EventBlackpool v Birmingham English

MarketQuatro
 Your bets (1) Single - Birmingham to win or draw with 3 or more goals scored in the match
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential Return: £93.00
Time: 04/05/12 18:39
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000018

[tikay]

Carter v Maguire snooker semi's. Carter currently 10-6 up due to start the 3rd session at 7pm

Carter currently 1.44 on BF this looks big to me with a 4 frame lead

Thanks, we have £100 @ 1.44 with Betfair.

ON


Maguire v Carter(In-Play)
Ali CarterMatch Odds    1.44 £100.00 £44.00
Bet Ref: 19733158043M Bet matched: 2012-05-04T17:47:32.000Z

[Graham C]

Have a little tickle on Ken to win London Mayor

Its close, very close and Ken will win a lot of second preferences from non Tory voters

Price has come in from 12-1 to 6-1 in the past hour

It might be a lot closer than that


edit into 4-1 while I am writing https://smarkets.com/politics/uk/london-mayor-2012/2012-london-mayor-overall-winner

Leave it.

8.4 on Betfair if you are interested

[tikay]

Have a little tickle on Ken to win London Mayor

Its close, very close and Ken will win a lot of second preferences from non Tory voters

Price has come in from 12-1 to 6-1 in the past hour

It might be a lot closer than that


edit into 4-1 while I am writing https://smarkets.com/politics/uk/london-mayor-2012/2012-london-mayor-overall-winner

Leave it.

8.4 on Betfair if you are interested

When is the actual Election please, Graham?

[Graham C]

I guess they're happening at the moment given all the tv coverage of it.  We didn't have anything in the post about these ones but the whole country seems excited by them at the moment.  Well, the news, not the whole country, apparently there's about a 30% turn out rate so I guess the country doesn't really give a toss.

[TightEnd]

result announced in the next few hours

   
PoliticsHome:

Labour MP Tessa Jowell said the London Mayoral race was going to be "very, very tight".

"I think there has been an assumption, aided by the polls and the very strong media support that Boris Johnson has had, that he was somehow going to walk away with it. Last night there was quite a lot of chat that he was going to do even better than the YouGov poll at the beginning of the week suggested.

"Obviously it’s a very, very tight race. It’s tighter than I thought it was going to be. Let’s see."


A cheeky £10 on Betfair tikay.

Add Politics to our list of sweats

[the sicilian]

Just been on the news bookies were paying out on boris....

[TightEnd]

that's premature


the live blog at http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/52728/ has it minute by minute


Psephology at its finest.

[the sicilian]

that's premature


the live blog at http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/52728/ has it minute by minute


Psephology at its finest.

Damm tighty for making me look up words