Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Assuming Dider Drogba starts, you can get 13/8 (Boylesports) he scores any time (in 90 mins) of the FA Cup final.  

Drogba's scoring record is 7 goals in 9 games at Wembley - he likes Wembley - and all-time 8 goals from 25 against Liverpool (none played at wembley).  If my maths is correct that makes him a fanny hair away from being 11/9 to score in the Cup Final.  15/35 strike rate either playing at Wembley or playing Liverpool 0.43 no?

Possible though that Chelsea start with Torres instead of Drogba. Have to wait until teams are announced before we can invest in this one.

I think 8 goals in 25 games against Liverpool is much more relevant.

The Wembley goals include Charity Shield matches which hardly count and finals against Everton and Pompey which he would be a good deal shorter price to score than against Liverpool.

With the under 2.5 being a very strong favourite, I think backing Drogba to score at 13/8 look pretty skinny. 2/1+ would be fair.

[WarBwastard]

Assuming Dider Drogba starts, you can get 13/8 (Boylesports) he scores any time (in 90 mins) of the FA Cup final.  

Drogba's scoring record is 7 goals in 9 games at Wembley - he likes Wembley - and all-time 8 goals from 25 against Liverpool (none played at wembley).  If my maths is correct that makes him a fanny hair away from being 11/9 to score in the Cup Final.  15/35 strike rate either playing at Wembley or playing Liverpool 0.43 no?

Possible though that Chelsea start with Torres instead of Drogba. Have to wait until teams are announced before we can invest in this one.

I think 8 goals in 25 games against Liverpool is much more relevant.

The Wembley goals include Charity Shield matches which hardly count and finals against Everton and Pompey which he would be a good deal shorter price to score than against Liverpool.

With the under 2.5 being a very strong favourite, I think backing Drogba to score at 13/8 look pretty skinny. 2/1+ would be fair.

No charity shield goals, but yes see what you mean.  Carling Cup final included.  Doesn't look like he's going to be starting anyway.

[JaffaCake]

Yeh, fair report on the hoopies, was loads closer than the score indicates, new york gave it everything and were in the driving seat for three quarters of the game but lebron coming back fresh killed it in the first two mins of the final quarter. Still think it wasn't worth an odds on bet, coulda been different. Never seen a team look so dejected and knackered at the end of a game, wouldn't back the Knicks with free money in the next one. When you're 2-0 down in a best-of-seven n u lose game three, your first home game, u may as well pack up there.

Thats the key, to my mind, Jeff. The value is so important. And at those prices, we need to win 2 out of every three bets. Big ask, that.

Do you never bet on British basketball?

I agree 2 out of 3 ain't really gonna happen, betting handicaps at evens and hoping, as Keith said somewhere, to get 60% of them or close is more realistic. There's defo some banzais to be had tho, and also we should bet on the correct score of some of these series, was some nice prices about. I backed my predictions I did on BettingOn, must check how they're doing.

Don't follow British basketball at all, used to, that was my main job on Slam Dunk, so I learnt a lot about it then. In those days u could only bet in one or two places, and as I'd ring the coaches direct for team news etc, I got the info before anyone. Think I mentioned before the coup we landed when a coach told me all of his star Americans were stranded in the US after a snow storm or something caused their flight to be cancelled, so he was scratching round for players to fill his team for the weekend, he ended up getting some local schoolboys to play instead lol.

The basketball is on live most nights/early mornings and repeated the next afternoon, tune in. Will put in some more research now, never gonna agree about last night's bet, but either way, New York, who had the second best record coming into the playoffs since they hired a new coach 20 games ago, look like getting swept (loads of fans will be taking brooms/brushes to the game) 4-0 by Miami, not what was expected and bad for our lay of the Heat who look red hot right now

[the sicilian]

Jeff..fancy a little NBA challenge...me the rookie against you the veteran.... Pick one bet a night on any game with odds no lower than 1.76 each talking it in turns to pick first... Each winning bet worth a point..run it up to the NBA finals....

Just for bragging rights or a couple of hundred to make it interesting ?

[tikay]

Daily Update, 9am, Saturday 5th May

Profit/Loss on Month (settled bets only) LOSS £2.50

Unsettled Bets £816

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6

[Josedinho]

I don't think "Let's back Liverpool because they've been crap all season but football is a funny game" is the analysis this thread needs tbh.

Just because it's the FA Cup final doesn't mean we've got to have a bet.

To be fair that's not the analysis that was given. Somebody said we HAVE to back Chelsea because Liverpool have been crap all season and a couple of people said that could be irrelevant and we think Liverpool will win. Nobody advised a bet on Liverpool. You can have an opinion without advising a bet.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, 9am Saturday 5th May

Just two completed bets yesterday, the Birmingham/Goals one (we lost £30), & a lovely little spot by Mere on a RL try scorer, where we netted a nice £137.50 profit, so a very handy £107.50 PROFIT on the day. Well done Vincent!

We also invested £100 on Carter in his Snooker Semi, @ 1.44, (geordieneil), Carter currently leads 14-10, first to 17. Carter is now quoted @ 1.21, so we had great value. Fingers crossed.

We have a Tighty County Cricket bet which continues today, the current scorecard is.....

Middlesex: 148-2 (40.3 overs)
Worcestershire: Yet to bat

2 days to get there, due to the weather, & down here in London today, it is cold & dull, though no sign of rain. This match neeeds to get going today, though it's all about a contrived result now. At least Middlesex have the best of it so far.

 

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Ignoring unsettled bets, we shall be backing Catalan, as advised by Hector.

Cup Final? Not sure. I planned to take Doobs tip (Chelsea), but opinion is "mixed", then I decided to accept the Drogba nod from WarBwastard, but that also got bad press, then we got into the realms of novelty bets. We remain uncommitted & undecided. 

Our Cricket bet continues, so does our Carter-Maguire Snooker bet.

No Premiership football interest today, that's tomorrow, only Arsenal-Norwich play today, & we are not involved.

We DO have some major interests today though..........

[tikay]

HUGE day ahead!

Barnet (away to Burton) MUST lose, & Hereford (home to Torquay) MUST win. It's that simple.  In effect, we have £100 @ 7/1 invested. Boom or bust time, that'd be a lovely bink. Been tremendous fun though, almost the backbone of the thread.

Then there is the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. No "Back Garden Going" reports have been forthcoming for 48 hours, very remiss of you boys, so no idea what the ground is like.

Our interests are.....

Trumpet Major, £25 EW @ 12/1, & £40 @ 14.5.

Abtaal, £15 @ 9/1

French Fifteen, £15 @ 12/1.

Current prices are.....

Trumpet 12/1

Abtaal 7/1

French Fifteen 12/1

The race is at 15.10. We could win a grand, or nothing....... 

[tikay]

Finally, we have the "Frames" bet in the World Snooker, which I believe is in Intensive Care.

We have laid Miami Heat in something, no idea what, or how that is doing, but Jeff did not exactly sound upbeat about it.

Not forgetting the Dude Singer in "The Voice" that MANTIS lifted our leg with Not that we could forget such a dumb bet.

I'll be offline from 10am until 1pm, as I am going up to DTD today to play the £500, so back Online from 1pm onwards, until I bust the Tourney. What price I crush?

[tikay]

The auditor has pointed out that there were some errors on the Spready & Dairy Report, these are now now corrected.

We are a whole £2.50 behind on the month. Tonight, who knows?

[Karabiner]

If Hereford win then even if Barnet draw we all wiiiiiiiiiiin.

[tikay]

Tomorrow evening Catalan play Huddersfield at rugby league at Catalan. You may remember 3 weeks ago we backed Catalan to beat Warrington at home, which they did by over 20 points. Huddersfield are not as good a team as Warrington, although they are top of the table, but they have had a relatively easy start to the campaign. This match will be a real test for Huddersfield and I do not think they are up to it. If they play to their potential then I think Catalan will comfortably win. With the hot weather and hard pitch Catalan are capable of winning by 20+ points.
 
I recommend you place £40 at 13/5 with Paddy Power  that Catalan win by 13+ points.

Excellent, thank you.

We have £40 with PP, Catalan to win by 13+ @ 13/5

ON

Super League Catalans Dragons v Huddersfield Giants
05-05-2012 17:30
Dozen Winning Margins
Catalans Dragons by 13+ @ 13/5
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Catalans Dragons by 13+ @ 13/5
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential returns: £144.00
No: O/23146337/0000026

 

[tikay]

The 2000 Guineas market......

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/15:10

[tikay]

If Hereford win then even if Barnet draw we all wiiiiiiiiiiin.

Of course, good spot Ralph, thanks.

Fingers crossed, there'll be some serious F5 action this afternoon if it's close.