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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16517003 times)
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« Reply #7050 on: May 26, 2012, 03:39:49 AM »

Thanks for the figures update, I get it now.

Would like to offer up my first tip for Euro 2012.

£40-£50 Aleksandr Kerzhakov Top Russain Goalscorer @ 7/1 VC http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/russia-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer

This is a really interesting one. We've gone in at 9/1, 8/1 and 7/1. Make it about a 4/1 chance (no bigger than 3/1 if he was 100% guaranteed to start).

Scored 25 in 33 for Zenit this season, always gets in great positions. He scored in a friendly today and really impressed, playing one half whilst an unimpressive Pogrebnyak played the other.
The Russain journalist covering the match tweeted:
"Within 8 minutes off coming on at half time Kerzhakov has shown why he has to start ahead of Pogrebnyak. Russia look much livelier now"

Spoken to many Russain experts on twitter who have said that he will start in the middle of a forward 3 with Arshavin and Dzagoev outside.

Bookies seem to think Pavluychenko may play making him favourite, which is fairly mind boggling. In qualifying, 5 times Kerzhakov started whilst Pav was on the bench but 0 times vice versa, whenever Pav started Kerza was injured. He has been awful this season.

He even presented the kit here: http://www.rt.com/sport/football/russia-euro2012-squad-kerzhakov-zenit-football-478/
It is worth noting that the Russain manager Advocaat sold Kerza in 2006 (as that article aludes to). But it seems he has long since learned from his mistake.

abs love this bet!  have joined along the crowd in this!
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Josedinho
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« Reply #7051 on: May 26, 2012, 07:01:36 AM »

if i read this right?

place the bet

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/content/french-open-tennis


This can't be right can it?
Did we decide that there is no downside to this bet other than having it refunded as a free bet rather than cash?
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« Reply #7052 on: May 26, 2012, 07:24:14 AM »

if i read this right?

place the bet

http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/content/french-open-tennis


This can't be right can it?
Did we decide that there is no downside to this bet other than having it refunded as a free bet rather than cash?

Promotional cash rules at BetVictor.

Betting Using Promotional Cash (Promo Cash)

1.) You can opt to use your Promo Cash on any online bet at the bet slip stage when placing your bet.
2.) Any profit that exceeds your total stake from a winning bet placed with promotional cash will be returned to your real account balance. The promotional cash stake will not be returned so please disregard the estimated returns on your bet slip when placing an online bet with promotional cash.
3.) All promotional cash bets must be placed separately from any real cash bets.
4.) Promotional cash is subject to an expiry date. Please check the individual offer T&C’s for confirmation.


So, it's not as good as it might seem but it's still not bad.
The promotion doesn't indicate an expiry date so you'll need to ask them to find out when it is.
For a thread like this where there is likely to be sufficient volume of bets to easily find a bet within the specified time, it has added appeal.
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« Reply #7053 on: May 26, 2012, 08:50:54 AM »

Unconfirmed reports Vince is singing an Amy Winehouse classic. Up to 81,000 twitter followers. No sign of illness. Holddd.

Thanks Cooter.

When is it - is it tonight?
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« Reply #7054 on: May 26, 2012, 09:20:24 AM »

The Coup



As Novice entered the breakfast room he noticed Tikay had company.

" Morning Novice" said Tikay. " I thought some reinforcements were needed so I got Red Dog and Milligan to help out."

Whilst Novice took out a pack of cards and started to practice shuffling them Tikay informed them of the days plan.

" Novice and I will continue to follow 3G round giving him encouragement." At this point he handed Red and Milly a map each of the course. "What I want you boys to do is this. On each hole I have marked the 2 most likely spots that 3G may hit it into the trees. They are marked A and B. Red you take the A's and Milly the B's. Don't look for anyone else's ball.  Here's a walkie talkie each so that we can communicate. If 3G can just make the cut then I am sure we will then be able to green out."

Green out had become Tikay's favourite expression. He didn't fully understand it. He barely even partially understood it. But he did know it was good, as all the BSD's  ( Big Swinging Dicks ) in the betting world liked to do it.

As they all rose to get ready to leave Tikay offered some final advice, " Remember this phrase today and we will do alright - We are not at home to Mr Cock up ."

Arriving at the golf course Tikay, wearing his Fedora, scarf, and swinging his walking stick, accompanied by Novice made his way to the 1st tee where 3G was having a practice swing.

" Oh Jesus ! " he exclaimed to his caddy Hergé " It's them again . I hoped that yesterday was a one off."

Hergé contemplated the pair for a moment. " You know who they remind me of- Gandalf and Frodo."

3G laughingly responded. " More like Gandalf and Gollum"

As they followed the 3 ball round Tikay and Novice discussed their various betting positions. When it came to the euro grannies Novice told Tikay of an interesting communication with them.

" Perusing their website I ended up in a  live text convo with them. It turns out that one of them is really keen on poker and I told them of your involvement with Sky etc. She even followed you on last weekends live Tighty up date, saw your photo and everything. She wants to come over for a date with you."

Tikay stopped dead in his tracks and slowly stared at Novice. " Please tell me it's not the one with only 1 hand !" The silence and the downcast eyes told Tikay all he needed to know.


3G had another mediocre round but reaching the 17th hole he was level par and on the cut off mark. 2 more pars would see him safely through to the weekend. A strange sensation then started in Tikay's stomach. With barely enough time to remove his trousers Tikay dived into the nearest bush. A weeks worth of eggs and pineapple came flooding out. As 3G started his backswing a monstrous fart erupted . In latter years when the story was told people claimed to have heard it as far away as the 15th green. A pungent eggy odour enveloped the gallery. It was so thick it seemed to stick to peoples clothes.  

With this distraction it was amazing 3G even managed to connect with the ball, but he did and it ended up in a huge slice. With the ball heading for the trees the crowd " ooohed". Hearing the noise Tikay stuck his Fedoraed head out of the bush to see the ball treebound. As luck would have it heading exactly towards where he had positioned Red Dog. Seizing the walkie talkie he opened communications.

 " Tikay to Red Dog do you read me?"

" Loud and clear Tikay"

" Can you see it?"

" Yes. It's in a tree about 15 feet away"

"Is it playable?"

" What do you mean?"

" Will he be able to hit the ball?"

" Oh I thought you were talking about the cuckoo. I heard it a little while ago so Milly and I thought we would try and get a picture of it. They are very rare nowadays.

" He's with you! So there is no one looking for the ball. Sodding brilliant. Get your arses back and find that ball "

" But Milly's never seen one before"

"Shall I tell you something else Milly's never seen before?" Tikay screamed. " You with a four iron sticking out your arse!"

Ignoring the last remark Red Dog noticed something even better than a Cuckoo,  nestling in the undergrowth, a  rusty old wheelbarrow along with a couple of lawnmowers.

" Wow" exclaimed Red Dog. " That's some great scrap. Milly go and get your car we better load it up right away. If we add it to your redundant multi-gym I reckon we will clear £20. Not too shabby for a mornings work."

With 3G's ball lost in the trees and him about to miss the cut his odds were rising rapidly on all the betting  sites.

" Green out. Green out." Tikay yelled to Novice.

"There's no Green to out " he replied. " I can give you some Red out if you like. There's a shit load of that. "

" Unbelievable" said Tikay. " Destitution is knocking at my door and I am inside taking tea with Mr Cockup."

Novice then noticed something, the odds on Betfair hadn't altered. They must have a communication glitch and not know Colsaerts's ball was lost.

"Tikay. We can lay Colsaerts on Betfair for a huge amount and get out of this, maybe even make a small profit."

" Brilliant. Do it"

" OK. What's the password to the Betfair account?"

" Novice I've got 162 betting accounts I can't remember their passwords. That's your job."

" I know all the main ones " Novice replied " But the ones we don't use much are on post-it-notes on my PC ."

" Oh Christ" said Tikay " We will have to try them all.  I'll shout them out and you enter them. Flying Scotsman, pineapple, grinning, kray twins, Isle of Skye, DTD the nuts, St Pancras..........................  hang on I've got it. It's I poker are bastards."

" Nooooooooooooooo" exclaimed Novice, " Betfair are up to date, the price has gone. There's nothing we can do now. We have lost the lot."

" Get  Bad Beat on the line" Tikay said to Novice, " Tell him I am going to need another dog pronto. I am going to have to phone Dubai and tell that he is going to have to walk around his house barefoot."

It was a very subdued car that left Wentworth that afternoon.There was nothing left to talk about. But in truth the pair had plenty on their minds. Novice couldn't help but wonder if the dealers at DTD got first dibs on the stunning valets, and Tikay couldn't get one particular thought off his mind - had  she lost the hand that she used to give hand jobs with?


« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 09:52:08 AM by hector62 » Logged

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« Reply #7055 on: May 26, 2012, 09:22:28 AM »

Howyadoingnotsobad, 7.00 Lingfield tomorrow. 12/1 with Bet365. Incred!

Now best price 6/1.
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« Reply #7056 on: May 26, 2012, 09:34:34 AM »

loooolz, incred work hector.


 " Tikay to Red Dog do you read me?"

" Loud and clear Tikay"

" Can you see it?"

" Yes. It's in a tree about 15 feet away"

"Is it playable?"

" What do you mean?"

" Will he be able to hit the ball?"

" Oh I thought you were talking about the cuckoo. I heard it a little while ago so Milly and I thought we would try and get a picture of it. They are very rare nowadays"

" He's with you! So there is no one looking for the ball. Sodding brilliant. Get your arses back and find that ball "


Tooooo good! I was wondering where you were going with it initially.

I would also like to add that my multi-gym is being used so much I will have to re-tighten the bolts shortly! At some stage I will post a pic of my Pythons to show the affect it is having. Disclaimer - I do not keep reptiles
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« Reply #7057 on: May 26, 2012, 09:35:08 AM »


hector,

I swear to God you must have hacked my computer. Some of those convos between Mere & I DID happen.

Ugh at "a weeks worth of egs & pineapple came flooding out", & damn you for publicising all my bookie passwords.

So, we have lost £20 on 3G, but we had great value, one way & another. Milli will be bidding for you to transfer to his thread at this rate.

I gotta go, Mere is calling me from the BetCave. He found a typo I made 17 years ago, & he needs to reprimand me.

We just need Badbeat to give us a nailed on dog in tonight's Greyhound Derby, & we can green out.
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« Reply #7058 on: May 26, 2012, 09:41:03 AM »

Daily Update, as @ 9.40am Saturday May 26th

LOSS on month = £253.92

Unsettled Bets = £766

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6
« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 10:22:16 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #7059 on: May 26, 2012, 09:47:32 AM »

Daily Summary as @ 09.45am, Saturday 26th May

We lost £40 yesterday, when we got Ramdin back to front, we had him as highest scorer (£20), he was, I think, lowest, or nearly so. I blame Tighty.

Colsaerts failed to make the cut, so £20 went south. 

We got very lucky swerving Chanderpaul though, I was 100% going to back it until wiser counsel made it clear that the price was wrong. Lucky escape for the Thread.

We had several bets running yesterday, but they all remain in play, so will discuss them later.

We are just over £200 DOWN on the month, the month end is 5 days away, but we have loads of chances on the go to get out of it. Or dig a deeper hole.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 10:23:21 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #7060 on: May 26, 2012, 09:58:36 AM »


What's coming up?

Loads, so several Posts for this, I think.

Test Cricket.

We are on Roach as best WI bowler, he should be in action this afternoon.

We are on Anderson as best England Bowler. That is finely poised, it could go either way, like, we hope, his bowling. I would say that at present, 2/1 is probably a bit tight. He has 2 wickets, so does Broad, with 2 other bowlers both on one. Close.

The "Series" bet looks slightly less alluring than it did at lunch yesterdy, when we had WI on the floor, but not so much now, England need to get rid of them for sub 300 then rattle up 500+.

Golf.

Genk's Finest became Cock-Up Colsaerts, so our interest has ended, 2 days early. Proper hero to zero stuff, that.
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« Reply #7061 on: May 26, 2012, 10:13:28 AM »

The Coup



As Novice entered the breakfast room he noticed Tikay had company.

" Morning Novice" said Tikay. " I thought some reinforcements were needed so I got Red Dog and Milligan to help out."

Whilst Novice took out a pack of cards and started to practice shuffling them Tikay informed them of the days plan.

" Novice and I will continue to follow 3G round giving him encouragement." At this point he handed Red and Milly a map each of the course. "What I want you boys to do is this. On each hole I have marked the 2 most likely spots that 3G may hit it into the trees. They are marked A and B. Red you take the A's and Milly the B's. Don't look for anyone else's ball.  Here's a walkie talkie each so that we can communicate. If 3G can just make the cut then I am sure we will then be able to green out."

Green out had become Tikay's favourite expression. He didn't fully understand it. He barely even partially understood it. But he did know it was good, as all the BSD's  ( Big Swinging Dicks ) in the betting world liked to do it.

As they all rose to get ready to leave Tikay offered some final advice, " Remember this phrase today and we will do alright - We are not at home to Mr Cock up ."

Arriving at the golf course Tikay, wearing his Fedora, scarf, and swinging his walking stick, accompanied by Novice made his way to the 1st tee where 3G was having a practice swing.

" Oh Jesus ! " he exclaimed to his caddy Hergé " It's them again . I hoped that yesterday was a one off."

Hergé contemplated the pair for a moment. " You know who they remind me of- Gandalf and Frodo."

3G laughingly responded. " More like Gandalf and Gollum"

As they followed the 3 ball round Tikay and Novice discussed their various betting positions. When it came to the euro grannies Novice told Tikay of an interesting communication with them.

" Perusing their website I ended up in a  live text convo with them. It turns out that one of them is really keen on poker and I told them of your involvement with Sky etc. She even followed you on last weekends live Tighty up date, saw your photo and everything. She wants to come over for a date with you."

Tikay stopped dead in his tracks and slowly stared at Novice. " Please tell me it's not the one with only 1 hand !" The silence and the downcast eyes told Tikay all he needed to know.


3G had another mediocre round but reaching the 17th hole he was level par and on the cut off mark. 2 more pars would see him safely through to the weekend. A strange sensation then started in Tikay's stomach. With barely enough time to remove his trousers Tikay dived into the nearest bush. A weeks worth of eggs and pineapple came flooding out. As 3G started his backswing a monstrous fart erupted . In latter years when the story was told people claimed to have heard it as far away as the 15th green. A pungent eggy odour enveloped the gallery. It was so thick it seemed to stick to peoples clothes.  

With this distraction it was amazing 3G even managed to connect with the ball, but he did and it ended up in a huge slice. With the ball heading for the trees the crowd " ooohed". Hearing the noise Tikay stuck his Fedoraed head out of the bush to see the ball treebound. As luck would have it heading exactly towards where he had positioned Red Dog. Seizing the walkie talkie he opened communications.

 " Tikay to Red Dog do you read me?"

" Loud and clear Tikay"

" Can you see it?"

" Yes. It's in a tree about 15 feet away"

"Is it playable?"

" What do you mean?"

" Will he be able to hit the ball?"

" Oh I thought you were talking about the cuckoo. I heard it a little while ago so Milly and I thought we would try and get a picture of it. They are very rare nowadays.

" He's with you! So there is no one looking for the ball. Sodding brilliant. Get your arses back and find that ball "

" But Milly's never seen one before"

"Shall I tell you something else Milly's never seen before?" Tikay screamed. " You with a four iron sticking out your arse!"

Ignoring the last remark Red Dog noticed something even better than a Cuckoo,  nestling in the undergrowth, a  rusty old wheelbarrow along with a couple of lawnmowers.

" Wow" exclaimed Red Dog. " That's some great scrap. Milly go and get your car we better load it up right away. If we add it to your redundant multi-gym I reckon we will clear £20. Not too shabby for a mornings work."

With 3G's ball lost in the trees and him about to miss the cut his odds were rising rapidly on all the betting  sites.

" Green out. Green out." Tikay yelled to Novice.

"There's no Green to out " he replied. " I can give you some Red out if you like. There's a shit load of that. "

" Unbelievable" said Tikay. " Destitution is knocking at my door and I am inside taking tea with Mr Cockup."

Novice then noticed something, the odds on Betfair hadn't altered. They must have a communication glitch and not know Colsaerts's ball was lost.

"Tikay. We can lay Colsaerts on Betfair for a huge amount and get out of this, maybe even make a small profit."

" Brilliant. Do it"

" OK. What's the password to the Betfair account?"

" Novice I've got 162 betting accounts I can't remember their passwords. That's your job."

" I know all the main ones " Novice replied " But the ones we don't use much are on post-it-notes on my PC ."

" Oh Christ" said Tikay " We will have to try them all.  I'll shout them out and you enter them. Flying Scotsman, pineapple, grinning, kray twins, Isle of Skye, DTD the nuts, St Pancras..........................  hang on I've got it. It's I poker are bastards."

" Nooooooooooooooo" exclaimed Novice, " Betfair are up to date, the price has gone. There's nothing we can do now. We have lost the lot."

" Get  Bad Beat on the line" Tikay said to Novice, " Tell him I am going to need another dog pronto. I am going to have to phone Dubai and tell that he is going to have to walk around his house barefoot."

It was a very subdued car that left Wentworth that afternoon.There was nothing left to talk about. But in truth the pair had plenty on their minds. Novice couldn't help but wonder if the dealers at DTD got first dibs on the stunning valets, and Tikay couldn't get one particular thought off his mind - had  she lost the hand that she used to give hand jobs with?




Post of the decade nominee

xx
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« Reply #7062 on: May 26, 2012, 10:19:37 AM »

 I nearly had a bet for you today. I'll mention it anyway because I think it illustrates a point that is interesting and I think the thread should be about learning collectively.

 I'm a massive fan of the bunny.

 Generally I think punters like the tortoise not the hare. They like to try and find one in the pack who might come out and beat the leader. Over the years it has often been the case in all sports that the obvious leader is often too big a price and that punters will look to get it beat. This theory can particularly throw up value in things like golf tournaments where the third round leader is often a much bigger price than his chance. This can often be down to bookmaker liabilities.

 If I had to criticise this thread, (and I'm not doing it for the sake of it, I like the thread a lot), I would say that too many people are just trying to pick a winner. There is zero chance of the thread achieving a long-term profit just by this approach. It is mandatory that the bets are value for some other reason other than "I fancy that to happen".

 The three most common reasons that bets can be "value" and can achieve the goal are inside information which is great but doesn't come around to often, the quality of research being better than that of the oddsmakers - I think the thread is very good at that and I',m certain the level of thought is way above that of the average odds compiler at Sid James, Bet £3.65 and BlueSqurrel.

...
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« Reply #7063 on: May 26, 2012, 10:28:17 AM »

Football.

We have £60 on Huddersfield to beat Sheff Utd today (sorry Phil!), @ 15/8, quite a decent bet I think, down to Josehdino, who is very selective with his tips. The game starts @ 3pm today.

We currently have no interest in today's England match.

Brent gave us a right corker for Euro12, Kerzhakov top Russian Scorer, half of blonde followed him in. A few weeks sweat are expected, GREAT tip.

Boxing.

We are on Audley Harrison tonight - not a sentence I thought I'd ever hear. We have a MAXIMUM £150 @ 8/15 down to Bazza.

We also have an unlikely draw, Frock & Bute, a Bazza Banzai, a tenner @ 22/1.  

Entertainment

Hardly "entertaininment", but the Russian Grannies step up to the plate tonight to strut their stuff, we have £30 EW @ 9/1 down to Bobby 1.

We have also invested £51 in laying Sweden, thanks to Chompy, who we hope can achieve his maiden thread win tonight, after 49 duds.

Not sure, but I assume "The Voice" is tonight too, in which we have Vince Dude Kidd, down to Cooter, our Tosh Curry. £10 @ 22/1. I might just kiss MANTIS if this one gets home, or arrange a date for him with Mr Keys if it loses.

Big Fred day then, with Football, Cricket, Boxing, ESC, & The Voice all in action.  

We can barely hide our excitement.


« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 10:30:33 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #7064 on: May 26, 2012, 10:30:50 AM »

...The third one (and to my mind an area where the thread misses a little)...is the market being out because of supply and demand.

 To me this is the best way to find value bets. Bookmakers sometimes allow short-term implications to cloud their judgement. They have a boss to answer to and a job to hold down. If they laid something heavily at the semi-final stage and it looked very poor but qualified for the final where it is competing against something that was 1000/1 at the start and one eventuality means a big bonus and the other might mean the sack they will "green out". They will do the thing we all know they shouldn't do and they will "piss away expectation" as someone put it here so eloquently.

 In the grand prix in Spain I backed the winner at 12/1. I know almost nothing about GP and I despise the sport. I did know that the pole guy had won 6 of the last 7 and that the fella had been 500/1 the day before. It was obvious the punters were still finding a way to make a case for the gys that they love, some of whom were way back on the grid and that the bookmakers were keen to try and green out.

 I'm not here to boast, just trying to illustrate a point.

 It nearly happened in the BMW Golf I thought.

Morrison was -12  and in the club-house with Luke Donald -8 in the club house. The punters were still keen to bet that the guys on the course - guys like Westwood, Els, McIlroy and Poulter would pick up 4,5,6 shots and get to withing five of the lead. Morrison was sure to be a total skinner for the books. It was obvious they were greening-up and taking some of their profit with Morrison when they offered 7/1. To me there was no way that he could go 12/1 from there but he could go 5/1 or shorter.

 I was all for tipping it to you here. There is a good chance that he is still value at 5/1 but he was 7/1.

 Not writing all this to after-time just to make a point.
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