Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Rampaul 3 Roach 2

It's not over yet.

Oooh, momentum might get us there!

N1 Vince. Just one 2nd Test winner would be nice, & this is last chance saloon.

[horseplayer]

come on rampaul (sorry!)

[Alverton]

I was just looking at Dai Greene, thinking 'Fantastic e/w'.  I'm about to post my first tip, but tighty beats me to it. 

Tighty hits nail on head.

[Xpressman]

Having a Small Punt on Cheltenham Town to win Div 2 Playoff in 90 Min's at 3.5

Felt that manager Mark Yates has assembled a good experienced side, got a great result at torquay and have been solid most of the season.

Crewe were poor early season but have come up on the rails, to have a long unbeaten run ....

I suspect it may well be close but something tells me Cheltenham will come good i hope !!

Taking a chance on 90 Min's Result ... But on such a hot day neither side will fancy Extra time

£25 3.5 betfair for me.

[tikay]

I was just looking at Dai Greene, thinking 'Fantastic e/w'.  I'm about to post my first tip, but tighty beats me to it. 

Tighty hits nail on head.

It does look a lovely piece of analysis.

I'll look at it properly tomorrow.

For now, we need Roach to get 2 more wickets (failing which, good luck horsey), Hamilton to get a good start in Monaco, & La Collina to win the fillies affair @ The Curragh.

Strangely, we have no interest in today's League Two play off, 3pm @ Wembley, Chelmsford v Crewe.

[MereNovice]

There may be some value to be had in the rugby league games at the Etihad Stadium.
Hot weather, short grass and a festival atmosphere are leading to some big scores.
Having said that, I've not spotted anything so far.

[tikay]

Having a Small Punt on Cheltenham Town to win Div 2 Playoff in 90 Min's at 3.5

Felt that manager Mark Yates has assembled a good experienced side, got a great result at torquay and have been solid most of the season.

Crewe were poor early season but have come up on the rails, to have a long unbeaten run ....

I suspect it may well be close but something tells me Cheltenham will come good i hope !!

Taking a chance on 90 Min's Result ... But on such a hot day neither side will fancy Extra time

£25 3.5 betfair for me.

Spooky!

I just mentioned that in a Post timed 30 seconds after you Posted, & I had you in mind with your lower league interests.

As it is your maiden tip, on your first "official" day here, we'll punt that shortly, just for fun stakes.

Must watch the start on the F1 from Monaco first, though, due in 3 minutes. Wonder what the over/under is on first lap coming togethers/retirements? I'll be amazed is there is not a touch of carnage, it is SO narrow & confined there.

[Xpressman]

Having a Small Punt on Cheltenham Town to win Div 2 Playoff in 90 Min's at 3.5

Felt that manager Mark Yates has assembled a good experienced side, got a great result at torquay and have been solid most of the season.

Crewe were poor early season but have come up on the rails, to have a long unbeaten run ....

I suspect it may well be close but something tells me Cheltenham will come good i hope !!

Taking a chance on 90 Min's Result ... But on such a hot day neither side will fancy Extra time

£25 3.5 betfair for me.

Spooky!

I just mentioned that in a Post timed 30 seconds after you Posted, & I had you in mind with your lower league interests.

As it is your maiden tip, on your first "official" day here, we'll punt that shortly, just for fun stakes.

Must watch the start on the F1 from Monaco first, though, due in 3 minutes. Wonder what the over/under is on first lap coming togethers/retirements? I'll be amazed is there is not a touch of carnage, it is SO narrow & confined there.

ESP !

[gatso]

Too early for SPOTY?

Thinking an Olympian Gold medalist at a decent price has to be the way to go.  Ben Ainslie won gold in 2004 and 2008, (silver and gold previously in the laser class) a treble this year in the Finn class would have to merit strong consideration surely.  Ennis obv the main danger, but obviously at a shorter price.

I'm on a 16/1 (available Boyle/PP)

I'm having a decent sized paddle on this, but for the fund a cheeky pony @ 16s (better if anyone can find it obv)

You got it.

£25 @ 16/1, Ben Ainslie to be 2012 SPOTY, with PP.

6 month sweat, this, but we should know the score once the Olympics are over. 

ON

BBC Sports Personality BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2012
01-06-2012 12:00
Outright Betting
B Ainslie @ 16/1
 
Your Bets Win
Single: B Ainslie @ 16/1
1 line at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential returns: £425.00
No: O/23146337/0000039  

Yuck, this looks horrid to me.  I used to watch the Americas cup when it was on, but sailing just isn't much of a watch.  He is obviously absolute top class at what he does, but nobody will be watching.  I expect far more to tune into the jessica ennis and mo farad silvers golds.

agree, there is abs no chance he wins this. he's already a double olympic gold medalist and nobody has a clue who he is. winning a 3rd isn't going to make anyone care about boats

previous winners in olympic years are hoy, holmes and redgrave; all participants in sports with excitement that you can watch and see who's winning. sailing really doesn't have that so has no appeal to the viewing public. prior to that olympic years saw 2 F1 winners and then steve davis before that. we have to go back to torville and dean 28 years ago to find a winner in a less obvious sport and they were the country's darlings, xxx hardly has that appeal. I write xxx because I can't even remember the name of the guy we're talking about and I've only been writing this for 2 minutes, that's probably about how long the general public will remember him as well

[Simon Galloway]

Pretty sure Tony understood full well the quality of advice he was getting when he struck the bet.  If not, happy to buy it off him.  And if he has no chance, feel free to put up a price.  I've already gone in @ 16's but at "no chance" odds, I will go in again.

[gatso]

Pretty sure Tony understood full well the quality of advice he was getting when he struck the bet.  If not, happy to buy it off him.  And if he has no chance, feel free to put up a price.  I've already gone in @ 16's but at "no chance" odds, I will go in again.

just for you I'd offer 33s but unfortuanately I've had to restrict your a/c to a 1p max bet

[redarmi]

Ennis 6's (and 6/4 to win heptathalon) and an obvious danger.  Farah is (7/4 the 5k and 9/4 the 10k)  So whilst the sailing won't smash the viewing figure records, we do get 16s to help compensate.  In recent years, there have been no shortage of winners from 'non-main stream' sports, as well as a few dubious personalities...

Price on Farah seems structurally wrong to me.  He is a shade under 8/1 to win two golds in which case I would think he is close to a certainty.  He is also a very short price if he is the only athletics gold medalist.  He also is a genuinely likeable character and comes across very well imo unlike  Murray who seems very short to me.  I think he would have to win a major AND olympic gold.  Ennis obvious chance but she isn't a certainty if she wins.  6/1 aint a bad price and this market tends to be a good example of what Channing was talking about (in what was amongst the best series of posts I have seen in Blonde btw and didn't get anything like enough love) about the obvious front runners.  There are a bunch of people in this market that cannot possibly win but take up significant overround.  There are also people like McIlroy, Westwood, Button, Khan, Froch who are true 100/1 shots and would need to do something truly remarkable to have any chance.  In an Olympic year we have to perform incredibly badly for an Olympian not to win.  The only exception of an Olympic year where an Olympian hasn't won when we have done okay is 1992 when Christie and Gunnell came second and third to Mansell but I think possibly they split the vote and F1 has always been very strong but isn't a runner this year imo.  Neither Button or Hamilton are popular enough given neither won in an non Olympic year when they won the driver title.

One I kinda like the look of is Dai Greene.  He is a 9/4 shot to win his event and is a pretty nice guy from what i can see.  It is not huge odds (10/1) or so that the other track athletes all fail at which point he isn't bigger than about 5/2.  50/1 seems fair to me about any athlete that is 9/4 to win a gold.

[tikay]

Ennis 6's (and 6/4 to win heptathalon) and an obvious danger.  Farah is (7/4 the 5k and 9/4 the 10k)  So whilst the sailing won't smash the viewing figure records, we do get 16s to help compensate.  In recent years, there have been no shortage of winners from 'non-main stream' sports, as well as a few dubious personalities...

Price on Farah seems structurally wrong to me.  He is a shade under 8/1 to win two golds in which case I would think he is close to a certainty.  He is also a very short price if he is the only athletics gold medalist.  He also is a genuinely likeable character and comes across very well imo unlike  Murray who seems very short to me.  I think he would have to win a major AND olympic gold.  Ennis obvious chance but she isn't a certainty if she wins.  6/1 aint a bad price and this market tends to be a good example of what Channing was talking about (in what was amongst the best series of posts I have seen in Blonde btw and didn't get anything like enough love) about the obvious front runners.  There are a bunch of people in this market that cannot possibly win but take up significant overround.  There are also people like McIlroy, Westwood, Button, Khan, Froch who are true 100/1 shots and would need to do something truly remarkable to have any chance.  In an Olympic year we have to perform incredibly badly for an Olympian not to win.  The only exception of an Olympic year where an Olympian hasn't won when we have done okay is 1992 when Christie and Gunnell came second and third to Mansell but I think possibly they split the vote and F1 has always been very strong but isn't a runner this year imo.  Neither Button or Hamilton are popular enough given neither won in an non Olympic year when they won the driver title.

One I kinda like the look of is Dai Greene.  He is a 9/4 shot to win his event and is a pretty nice guy from what i can see.  It is not huge odds (10/1) or so that the other track athletes all fail at which point he isn't bigger than about 5/2.  50/1 seems fair to me about any athlete that is 9/4 to win a gold.

Yup, & Tighty recommended that very bet this morning, backed up by great analysis.

We'll have some fun with this later, & add Rob to the portfolio.

Simon's bet? I'm fine with it, Simon does not part with his money easily, he has a near 100% record here, only his poker chips are easy. The Russian Grannies were equally unlikely to win, but got pretty close. Strange thing, odds, betting & probability. 

[bobby1]

what price was it, presume it was fave? They mostly sounded the same to me but if that one's number one all over europe guess it's gonna win. Poor old Hump never stood a chance.

Mw Paul Pierce has seven points in the first half ffs. Not as easy as it looks this punting

It was about 2.8 ish in the week but after the semi final and a good enough draw in 17 for the final it was about 2.24 last night. I have been out most of the day but Chompy will probably know what the swings in price were like today.

Was around 2.16 last night when I laid it before they sang.  It was around 1.74 after.  I was thinking at the time this is going well... It didn't get much better but drifted to 2 again before the votes came in. 

Thanks Doobs, I hope the o/r turned out ok. Do you recall what price the grannies were when the votes were about to be announced?

Cheers

[gatso]

phillips idowu @ 66/1 is pretty big. he'll probably medal, quite possibly gold and I expect him to dye his hair so he has a union flag on his head. the public are gonna love him