Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Update as @ 0830, Tuesday June 5th

LOSS on Month = £185

Unsettled Bets = £582.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

[tikay]

Daily Summary as @ 0830, Tuesday June 5th

We lost exactly £30 yesterday. We were against Andy Murray, & we crushed him first set, but it was all uphill after that, & we got murdered, our Gasquet blew. Think it was a fair bet, no complaints.

Our other minor interest was in last night's Speedway, & we had a decent price until rain intervened, & the whole Meeting was abandoned before a wheel was turned.

That was it really.

 

[tikay]

What's coming up?

The sort of lull before the storm continues, we are just really keeping the thread ticking over with bits & bobs until.....

Euro12

Royal Ascot

US Open Golf

All of which start this or next week, so we are pretty much keeping our powder dry until then.

Meanwhile, we are just bitting & bobbing, nothing too big, or exciting.

Recommends for Royal Ascot & US Open Golf welcome (none received yet), & keep the Euro 12 stuff coming.

We added one more Euro12 bet yesterday, some sparkling value @ 4/1 (generally 5/2) on Benzema top French goalscorer, Euro12.

I'll summarise all the Euro12 stuff before it starts. We have plenty of sweats to go right through the Tourney (hopefully), & then we'll have stuff on the the daily matches.

[gatso]

PS - here is our hero, at Gatwick Airport last year, doing what he does best......

Click to see full-size image.

helping people with their homework?

[nirvana]

Thunder 108 Spurs 103
Durant 27 points.

Lol, Deano, such a hero. Triple crowns it with this result, ships the GUKPT satellite last night and wins 1400 spangling it up on the wheel. Love the big round roid fuelled guesser

Last seen doing the chompy flounce out of the G muttering 'You can't eat a 'price''

[Bad Beat]

 Obviously I'm delighted for Dean, despite waiting up until 4.30am to see the demise of the biggest NBA bet I've made for a year.

 I do think we have to learn from all our bets whether they are winners or losers and I think this bet adds some interest for me to the recent discussions about the thread's losing run.

 Firstly, I make no apologies for repeating myself from earlier.

 I have thought of a checklist of four things that you probably need to tick yes to before you make a bet. Possibly there are more than four and somebody could add more but I think it would be good for the thread if bets had to answer yes to at least one of these before being passed, That would make Tikay's life easier, (more selectivity and less bets), and I think you'd make more money.

 1. Does this bet benefit from inside information? This information does not have to be totally secret to all others but it has to be discounted by the market, An example would be a poster who recommends backing a lower division team to win because he saw a player coming off with a slight knock in a non-televised game and he thought others may not have seen that and the market may not have factored it in. You can guarantee that somebody in the market will have seen everything and that injury will have possibly been spotted by somebody passing information to one of the leading football betting syndicates but it is possible that it may not have been truly factored in by the market.

[Bad Beat]

2. Have we done better research than the person setting the market?

 Some of the people posting here have clearly put a lot of thought into their bets and have factored in every variable possible. They back this up with data. I would like to bet these kind of posters and their selections over the hard-pressed fella at Stan James who is asked to cover reality TV, rugby league, boxing and golf because they are too mean to employ extra staff and he is having a bad week and just stuck something up on the golf without thinking too much about it.

 3. Are we thinking about something in a completely different way? Has the basis for this market moved and a received wisdom been proved wrong?

 I like these ones the best. Dubai posting about the "Taylor Effect" or Tighty about the move away from draws in county cricket are great examples. These things are really clever and they should lead to much stronger bets.

 

[Bad Beat]

4. Can we take advantage of a market anomoly which has distorted the market?

 Odds compilers have a difficult job. They are constantly torn between putting up lines that split the action and those that split the result.

 An example would be an NBA match between Miami Heat (the sexiest miost fashionable team) and Atlanta Hawks (an unfashionable team). If the odds maker does his research and works out all the average scores, looks at recent results, and takes on board all the hard data he may come up with Miami -5 as the price. He knows if he puts that price up and doesn't move it 70% of bets will be on Miami. If the game is on TV the number may climb as high as 76%.

 What does he do now. He may be sure that 5 is the right number and that over a million trials that will lead to Miami and Atlanta punters winning 500,000 times each and him getting the juice each time (10/11 works for him). He can be very satisfied with that.

 He has a peroblem though. Firstly he doesn't REALLY know where the "true" line should be, secondly variance may mean he keeps putting up "true" lines and the "public" teams keep winning so now he or his bosses start to doubt and thirdly he could get more out of the "mugs" if he puts the line at 6.

 Supposing he puts it at 6 and now the money is 62% for Miami. He moves it to 6.5 and the number is 56%. The pregame stff comes on and the split is 60% Miami bets to 40% Hawks. He now moves his line to 7 even though he "knows" it should be 5.

 He is now splitting the action at 50/50 but not the result which in the long-run will favour Atlanta backers.

 This is what the betting syndicates are looking for in all sports.

 These chances crop up far more often than the first three and these are my favourite.

[Bad Beat]

 When I very first read the thread I thought all bets suggested would be put to a panel of "elders" before Tikay would be allowed to place them. I understand it's hard to get hold of those people all the time and that maybe that impinges on their time, but maybe the thread could make a rule that it's not a bet unless you can argue that you have ticked one of the above for boxes.

 Maybe there are five or six questions and I missed a couple.

 I personally love a scattergun approach. I like being in action and I find it hard to find bets that are NAP material and that I can get on in decent size often enough. I have lots of bets with a smallish edge every week. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

 I do think that the thread has way too many bets where people post up their reasons abnd these reasons are 100% factored into the market. Many of these markets are very efficient and you simply can't beat them by scratching the surface. I for one would never like to read another "I fancy Fulham today because they are good at home and Villa were terrible last week and don't score many away".

 You have to ask yourself -  "is that sort of research likely to be the reason that Tony Bloom has all the money?"

[rfgqqabc]

That's the problem with this sort of thread, people with the info rarely give it out, and it takes a rare exception, such as tighty to find an edge. The hardest markets are the footie ones, especially the prem but if you ignore these rid thread dies somewhat.

Posted in euro 2012 thread but I'd like to put Holland up at for an each way bet. I used to work for a pro punter, and he's on them. Backed them myself and putting friends and family on. Same with van persie at 10s not checked if the price is still there! Each way as well

[tikay]

That's the problem with this sort of thread, people with the info rarely give it out, and it takes a rare exception, such as tighty to find an edge. The hardest markets are the footie ones, especially the prem but if you ignore these rid thread dies somewhat.

Posted in euro 2012 thread but I'd like to put Holland up at for an each way bet. I used to work for a pro punter, and he's on them. Backed them myself and putting friends and family on. Same with van persie at 10s not checked if the price is still there! Each way as well

Thanks man, I'll take a look a bit later.

Oir most profitable Market (so far, but irrelevant sample size) is Premiership Football, in fact.

"used to work for a pro punter" as the logic might invoke some interesting comment, too.*

* Ignore that, I'm just having a little fun today, so welcome to the thread.

Incidentally, we are on RVP already as top goalscorer for Holland, but not overall top goalscorer.

We also have a small bet on France to win outright, coupled with Benzema as Top Goalscorer. At 150/1!

Before I place (or not....) that Holland Bet, given that it is not time precious, I'll await some feedback from da boyz.

We will also need to be careful that we don't end up betting against ourself, as we have already had recommends for Spain & France. Not sure how we combat that, but we must.

For your info, here is our current  book, which contains 8 or 9 Euro12 bets, plus we still have a bunch of "recommends" to make decisions upon.

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

Thanks for the tip, & enjoy the thread. I assume you are a serious poker player, right?

[FUN4FRASER]

Cheers for the postings Neil...Really interesting and evocative read.

Effort  Appreciated

[T_Mar]

Cheers for the postings Neil...Really interesting and evocative read.

Effort  Appreciated

+1

[FUN4FRASER]

Quite like this bet if you can get 7-4 with Stan James or Betfair

Croatia to qualify from Group C   .

Croatia have lost their star striker Olic but still have plenty of fire power up front with Evertons Jelavic ,Mandzukic and Eduardo ,The creative Modric bossing things in midfield a sturdy defence ,a great team spirit and an astute manager in Slaven Bilic.

There are 2 places out of 4 available in the group so as I dont see Ireland as a danger ,and with Spain likely to qualify (not certainties ) I see it as a straight fight for second between Croatia and an average Italian team whose squad and management have been affected by match fixing scandals and dont appear for up for a fight when things are going against them.

I recomend £80 at 7-4

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/euro-2012-group-c/to-qualify

[redarmi]

Firstly, apologies to Sicillian for the 'tirade' and I hope he continues to post.  It wasn't my intention for it to come off as it did but I was trying to get across the points Channing did but am nothing like as eloquent.  I think the main point is that this is a really great thread and everyone should be able to take something away from it but only if the bets are analysed and criticised can we all learn.  It is like poker in that you have to get into good habits and the real point of my post, albeit very badly put, was to suggest that buying half points or betting alternative totals is almost never value (the exception is buying off the 7 for ten cents in the NFL) and if you like a side or total just shop around and get the best line rather than messing with alternatives unless you have a really good handle on the value of each half a point.