Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

I was going to bed, but had to read all that analysis, good effort Aaron and fairplay to you. I think I'm more inclined to take heed what the guy who does this for a living has to say m8. I doubt you'll often find people willing to impart stuff like that for free, I could be wrong, but to me it's mindboggling and why I'll always be a mug punter

Just don't mention Ace Jack red, we saw how that turned out in PHA 

[aaron1867]

I was going to bed, but had to read all that analysis, good effort Aaron and fairplay to you. I think I'm more inclined to take heed what the guy who does this for a living has to say m8. I doubt you'll often find people willing to impart stuff like that for free, I could be wrong, but to me it's mindboggling and why I'll always be a mug punter

Just don't mention Ace Jack red, we saw how that turned out in PHA 

I feel a bit daft for a lot of analysis and people disagreeing, but there you go, would rather people disagree, than just ignore.

I know where redarmi is coming from for sure and definitely don't disagree, but ya know, that's how it goes.

I hope it doesn't de-rail the thread though and I still think the bet is a half decent bet, shall follow myself.

[Marky147]

I was going to bed, but had to read all that analysis, good effort Aaron and fairplay to you. I think I'm more inclined to take heed what the guy who does this for a living has to say m8. I doubt you'll often find people willing to impart stuff like that for free, I could be wrong, but to me it's mindboggling and why I'll always be a mug punter

Just don't mention Ace Jack red, we saw how that turned out in PHA 

I feel a bit daft for a lot of analysis and people disagreeing, but there you go, would rather people disagree, than just ignore.

I know where redarmi is coming from for sure and definitely don't disagree, but ya know, that's how it goes.

I hope it doesn't de-rail the thread though and I still think the bet is a half decent bet, shall follow myself.

I wouldn't feel daft mate, you've put the work into it and come up with your own conclusions. I still know literally nothing about sports betting in the grand scheme of things, I know infinitely more than I did before this thread started just from the stuff that the really shrewd punters post. Had you not posted that, red wouldn't have gone into it so deeply and I'd have probably gotten to bed a bit earlier

[c4ught]

I was going to bed, but had to read all that analysis, good effort Aaron and fairplay to you. I think I'm more inclined to take heed what the guy who does this for a living has to say m8. I doubt you'll often find people willing to impart stuff like that for free, I could be wrong, but to me it's mindboggling and why I'll always be a mug punter

Just don't mention Ace Jack red, we saw how that turned out in PHA 

I feel a bit daft for a lot of analysis and people disagreeing, but there you go, would rather people disagree, than just ignore.

I know where redarmi is coming from for sure and definitely don't disagree, but ya know, that's how it goes.

I hope it doesn't de-rail the thread though and I still think the bet is a half decent bet, shall follow myself.

If you get where he is coming from and don't disagree then why would you still continue to bet the consolidated market as opposed to the individual match markets?

[MereNovice]

I was going to bed, but had to read all that analysis, good effort Aaron and fairplay to you. I think I'm more inclined to take heed what the guy who does this for a living has to say m8. I doubt you'll often find people willing to impart stuff like that for free, I could be wrong, but to me it's mindboggling and why I'll always be a mug punter

Just don't mention Ace Jack red, we saw how that turned out in PHA 

I feel a bit daft for a lot of analysis and people disagreeing, but there you go, would rather people disagree, than just ignore.

I know where redarmi is coming from for sure and definitely don't disagree, but ya know, that's how it goes.

I hope it doesn't de-rail the thread though and I still think the bet is a half decent bet, shall follow myself.

I wouldn't feel daft mate, you've put the work into it and come up with your own conclusions. I still know literally nothing about sports betting in the grand scheme of things, I know infinitely more than I did before this thread started just from the stuff that the really shrewd punters post. Had you not posted that, red wouldn't have gone into it so deeply and I'd have probably gotten to bed a bit earlier

Definitely don't feel daft. I think that it's provoked an enlightening discussion. Thanks for your efforts and especially thanks to redarmi for his insight and help.

If I remember I will place a virtual (i.e. not real money) accumulator on all the matches that need to be won for the Spain Germany final to occur from now on. We'll see how much we win (if those two teams make the final, of course).

[MereNovice]

Daily Update, as @ 08:40, Monday June 18th

LOSS on Month = £400.34

Unsettled Bets = £637.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 08:40, Monday June 18th.

Fred had a mixed day yesterday.

In the football Fred picked the one losing bet amongst a whole heap of well reasoned winners. Keep the tips coming and I'm sure Fred will improve. With some teams being eliminated from Euro2012 I have settled the losing goalscorer bets although bookies won't have officially done this yet.
            
In the cricket we had one good result (Glamorgan won) and one bad result (Surrey lost). Surrey remain top of their group and Glamorgan are now third in their group.
                          
In golf we had a very tense night. Furyk and McDowell lost out to a very fine last round of 68 by Webb Simpson. We had McDowell each way so made a small profit overall. Congratulations to hector62 for this tip and to everyone who gave us such a great sweat through all four days of the tournament. Fred decided not to "green out". 3G (Colsaerts) didn't manage to make any progress which resolved the dilemma mostly. 3G still remains Fred's favourite golfer.

Singheee contributed his regular baseball winning bet. We also had a loser - I'm still reeling with the shock.

In the basketball, the Miami Heat had a close game with the Oklahoma City Thunder. There never seemed to be much in it either way. The Heat eventually won 91-85 to put our bet in jeopardy but there is still some way to go.

The numbers make it look like we had a really bad day but that's just the effect of closing a number of long term losing bets.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?

Euro2012 continues with Italy v Republic of Ireland and Croatia v Spain. We have money on Croatia to qualify from this group and this is still in the balance. We also have Srna to be top Croatian goalscorer but we need a little help with this. A few goals from Fernando Llorente would be nice too.

There's some T20 cricket on TV but not much else televised live sport. If anyone can find any reasoned bets for today then Fred is always ready to listen.


Let's make some money.

[MereNovice]

Euro2012 Finalists Virtual Bet.

I believe that the first thing that needs to happen is for Spain to win their group today. If they come second they would end up with a semi-final against Germany assuming both teams got that far.

The current best odds for this are 1.21 on Betfair so I have invested ten groats on this.

[tikay]

Euro2012 Finalists Virtual Bet.

I believe that the first thing that needs to happen is for Spain to win their group today. If they come second they would end up with a semi-final against Germany assuming both teams got that far.

The current best odds for this are 1.21 on Betfair so I have invested ten groats on this.

What? 40 old pence?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groat_(coin)

[TightEnd]

I thought losses were taken when the bets are struck? Therefore it shouldn't have been a bad day once the long term events finish with no return?

[MereNovice]

I thought losses were taken when the bets are struck? Therefore it shouldn't have been a bad day once the long term events finish with no return?

tikay may have originally done that (and may notionally write bets off in his head when they are struck) but the accounting doesn't work like that.
Each day we publish how much has been lost (in settled bets) and the amount of unsettled bets. I don't know why he chose to publish the figures in that way specifically but the overall figure can be obtained by adding them together.
The spreadsheet also shows the combined total as "Profit including unsettled bets".

So what happened this morning is the settled losses total increased and the unsettled bets total decreased.

[hector62]

Rugby League  Leeds v Wakefield tonight.

Ordinarily this would be a simple win for Leeds. However there are reasons to look to oppose them tonight. Firstly they are not playing well and have lost 4 out of their last 5 matches, admittedly against some good teams. More importantly there is also  the fact of Saturdays games. Leeds had 6 players playing for England against the exiles and 4 playing against Ireland. It is a huge task to play games at this level with only a 1 day rest. Add in the recent wins that Wakefield have had, 3 from 5, and their confidence will be high. Wakefield are certainly capable of scoring and as long as they can keep the game close for 20 mins then I think they could win this.

Recommend Wakefield £20 @ 5-1 BetVictor  £5 draw @35-1 BetFair.

[tikay]

I thought losses were taken when the bets are struck? Therefore it shouldn't have been a bad day once the long term events finish with no return?

tikay may have originally done that (and may notionally write bets off in his head when they are struck) but the accounting doesn't work like that.
Each day we publish how much has been lost (in settled bets) and the amount of unsettled bets. I don't know why he chose to publish the figures in that way specifically but the overall figure can be obtained by adding them together.
The spreadsheet also shows the combined total as "Profit including unsettled bets".

So what happened this morning is the settled losses total increased and the unsettled bets total decreased.

Happy for you to make the accounting system better, more transparent, & or more prudent, as you see fit, Vince.

I see you have tidied it up, too, which is good.

One quick question, & I can't see the answer as it is semi-hidden for purposes of tidying up.

What was our net profit or loss on the US Open, please? We had the eight heroes, (though only McDowell cashed I believe), but we alao had a 3 way 18 hole match bet on Day One, as I recall, & that got home. Just curious, really.

I have no regrets on the US Open, would have been nice to bink a biggie, but I doubt we'll ever have a better 4 day sweat, & I loved every moment, & we were right in there until the 18th on Day 4.

[MereNovice]

I thought losses were taken when the bets are struck? Therefore it shouldn't have been a bad day once the long term events finish with no return?

tikay may have originally done that (and may notionally write bets off in his head when they are struck) but the accounting doesn't work like that.
Each day we publish how much has been lost (in settled bets) and the amount of unsettled bets. I don't know why he chose to publish the figures in that way specifically but the overall figure can be obtained by adding them together.
The spreadsheet also shows the combined total as "Profit including unsettled bets".

So what happened this morning is the settled losses total increased and the unsettled bets total decreased.

Happy for you to make the accounting system better, more transparent, & or more prudent, as you see fit, Vince.

I see you have tidied it up, too, which is good.

One quick question, & I can't see the answer as it is semi-hidden for purposes of tidying up.

What was our net profit or loss on the US Open, please? We had the eight heroes, (though only McDowell cashed I believe), but we alao had a 3 way 18 hole match bet on Day One, as I recall, & that got home. Just curious, really.

I have no regrets on the US Open, would have been nice to bink a biggie, but I doubt we'll ever have a better 4 day sweat, & I loved every moment, & we were right in there until the 18th on Day 4.

We had 10 bets on the US Open.
We had a £90 & £95 win and 8 small losses.
The nett profit was £105.