Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Wow, nice bet Major.

I guess, in a way, the easy target was in our favour, they could just sling the bat, do the agricultural bishy bashy boshy thing.

Dennis Compton must be turning in his grave, but Fred needs the money.

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 05:30, Tuesday June 26th

LOSS on Month = £573.34

Unsettled Bets = £197.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 05:30, Tuesday June 26th

We had another winning day.

We had a bet on the number of sixes scored in the Lancashire v Durham T20 cricket match. After a slow start the bet came to life and sauntered in early. Thanks to MajorMajor for the tip. During the match there were 25 chances in the slips. They dropped 3 but did manage to Catch 22. (I may have made that up).

After news of Justin Gatlin winning the US 100m trial we got on him for the Olympics at 25/1. This price is still available with bwin.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?

Wimbledon continues.

England's excellent women's team take on India at T20 cricket.

There's domestic T20 cricket but neither of our runners (Surrey and Glamorgan) play today.

Snooker continues in China.

[Jamier-Host]

I don't have a mountain of stats to back this one up, but like it based on the comparative betting markets, and don't see either semi final as a foregone conclusion.

Can back an Italy v Portugal final @ best price 15/2 (or 8.4/1 on Betfair).

However placing a double on both teams to qualify with Stan James pays 9/1.

Recommending a small £10/£20 investment.

Cheers,

Jamie

After the Champions League results anything can happen?

Ha - something like that. It's more about the price than actually fancying that result. are 7/1 for Italy/Portugal final but you beat every bookie including Betfair here as they are weirdly clear standout price on both teams "to qualify".

[MereNovice]

I don't have a mountain of stats to back this one up, but like it based on the comparative betting markets, and don't see either semi final as a foregone conclusion.

Can back an Italy v Portugal final @ best price 15/2 (or 8.4/1 on Betfair).

However placing a double on both teams to qualify with Stan James pays 9/1.

Recommending a small £10/£20 investment.

Cheers,

Jamie

After the Champions League results anything can happen?

Ha - something like that. It's more about the price than actually fancying that result. are 7/1 for Italy/Portugal final but you beat every bookie including Betfair here as they are weirdly clear standout price on both teams "to qualify".

No gainsayers yet.
As I'm a nit, it will be £10 on the double unless we get some contrary feedback.

[sovietsong]

On we go and I have had a detailed look at the Spain v Portugal game for us. We binked comfortable on the corners bet, so looked at this with great detail.

I can only see a decent bet again betting on corners, looked over the stats and I think it will be a tight affair with regards to corners, but Spain are priced for total most corners at a tiny 3/10 (William Hill Odds), whilst Portugal are at 11/4 for total most corners.

Why do I think the Spain odds are small?

Total corners in tournament for both teams:

Spain: 33 - 8.25 a match.
Portugal: 35 - 8.75 a match.

You can argue Spain are the best side Portugal have faced, but might be wrong, Portugal got a massive 11 corners against Germany who are currently the tournaments favourites. I also add to this, Spain did play a very limp ROI side.

So? Where am I going/pointing? I am definitely not on Spain for most corners. I might go for Portugal outright on corners or perhaps with a little handicap? Handicap corner betting (William Hill):

+1 Port 11/5
+ 2 Port 6/4
+3 Port EVS

At the moment, I am liking the 6/4 +2 bet.

With more corner bets, you can bet on the number? The above stats point to the there being 17 corners in this game by working on the average. Of course there may be more or less, but this is knockout football, I can only see both sides going for it.

Total number of corner odds (William Hill):

Under 10 - 8/5
10-12 - 21/10
Over 12 - 29/20

Over 12 would be my choice here.

Really like the Portugal corners bets. Looks like the price has come in on +3.

[hector62]

Federer's next opponent, Fognini, doesn't look capable of beating him. At least his 3rd round opponent will have already won 2 games on grass. Will have a look at the weekends golf now.

[aaron1867]

Federer's next opponent, Fognini, doesn't look capable of beating him. At least his 3rd round opponent will have already won 2 games on grass. Will have a look at the weekends golf now.

I have heard plenty of previews for Wimbledon and they are all in favour of Federer not winning the tournament.

It seems very repetitive on that front, they all say he always turns up for Wimbledon, but also evening up by saying he just is nowhere near the player he was for the last tournaments. Therefore avoiding myself.

I am not a big tennis fan and it seems to be one of 3 for the tournament, well perhaps even one or two and the odds show it. So looked for outsiders and hasn't that tonga bloke done decent? he was 25's the last time I looked, he's the name away from the 'top 4'.

[MereNovice]

Tsonga's odds reflect the likelihood that he would have to beat Nadal, Murray and Djokovic in successive matches to win the tournament if the seeds progressed as expected.
He can be backed at 40/1 on SportingBet.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens-wimbledon/winner

[redarmi]

Think the Italy-Portugal bet is a decent one.  On every calculation based on current market it should be 9.60-9.70 and I think Portugal may get backed tomorrow and certainly prefer that side.

[MereNovice]

I don't have a mountain of stats to back this one up, but like it based on the comparative betting markets, and don't see either semi final as a foregone conclusion.

Can back an Italy v Portugal final @ best price 15/2 (or 8.4/1 on Betfair).

However placing a double on both teams to qualify with Stan James pays 9/1.

Recommending a small £10/£20 investment.

Cheers,

Jamie

After the Champions League results anything can happen?

Ha - something like that. It's more about the price than actually fancying that result. are 7/1 for Italy/Portugal final but you beat every bookie including Betfair here as they are weirdly clear standout price on both teams "to qualify".

No gainsayers yet.
As I'm a nit, it will be £10 on the double unless we get some contrary feedback.

On.

Jamier-Host   StanJames   Football   Euro2012:Semi final double   Portugal/Italy   9/1   10

   Selection   Price
Portugal   85/40
Italy   11/5
Total stake    £10.00
Estimated return    £100.00

[rfgqqabc]

Bet365 have moved from 7/2 intos 3/1. BetVictor new best price 10/3 (Portugal most corners)

[superwomble]

Have you checked your Bet365 account? They have refunded a pre-match bet for everyone whether you got the in-play bet on or not. I just found £50 in my account and withdrew it

[MereNovice]

I really like the Portugal corners bet.
Stats from the games so far indicate that Portugal obtain more corners than Spain.
Bookies seem consistent in their opinion that Spain will get 2 or 3 more  than Portugal, presumably as a by-product of them having Spain as favourites to win the match.
However, we also have a theory that a team that goes behind is likely to get more corners after that which we think should also favour Portugal.

I'm inclined to back Portugal.