Tips for Tikay

[claypole]

Well, its that time when the bookies start publishing odds for the Premiership season ahead, and I am about to have my first ante post bet of the season.  I am not sure about how Fred feels about tieing money up for nine months, however I am confident I have found the first piece of value.  I am sure Mr Hawkins will have a view....

Stan James - Top London Club Group B - QPR @11/4

The group consists of Fulham 8/13, QPR 11/4 and West Ham 7/2

So, what do QPR bring to the party.  Well, its second season and Mark Hughes has had time to get to grips with the squad and start to make some changes.  There is significant investment at QPR, compared with West Ham and Fulham - and my understanding is there is more to come.  They have already made what I consider shrewd purchases at this level of Green, AJ and the loan signing of Fabio from Man Utd and released nine players who were all short of Premiership class In addition, I expect more signings before the start of the season and also that Fernandes will have no hesitation spending again should there be challenges in the January Transfer window.

Fulham are an ageing squad in transition.  There inability to secure the signing of Pobrebnyak - who will joining Reading reinforces the fact they are not an attractive proposition for new players and lack funding to compete even with promoted clubs who have had a cash injection.  I think they will lose Clint Dempsey, Duff is ageing, Danny Murphy has departed for Blackburn and they desperately need to sign striker - the toughest position to get good vfm on a tight budget.

I have less of a strong view on West Ham.  I think they will be solid under Sam and maybe just avoid relegation, however early signing of McCartney and Diame suggest they will be shopping in bargain basement territory again and will not be able to bring the likes of Cisse in if thing go tits up by January.

I guess the main basis of this bet is two things; Fulhma squad in decline, QPR the richest of the three clubs and the fact I believe Hughes is the best equipped for next season. I would be betting Fulham 11/10, QPR 15/8, West Ham 3/1

Recommend £80 at 11/4

Bump - Ji Sung Park arrives at Loftus Road

[MereNovice]

Be aware that I won't be placing any bets until tomorrow unless there are extremely convincing reasons.
Feel free to provide all sorts of good tips though.

If a bet is extremely time critical, please make it very clear.

<hic>

[dino1980]

Dai Greene runs 400m hurdles PB (47.84secs) 3 weeks out from the Olympics.

UK record, fastest time in the world this year, and only two times faster since the Beijing Olympics, one of which was at altitude 

Second fastest time in the world this year as Culson won the race in 47.78 according to BBC.  Still massive improvement on his early season form.

[Chompy]

Another £20 on Greene @ 50-1 please.

Can't have Murray winning on Sunday.

[Horneris]

£75 min Lindstedt/Tecau to win the mens doubles final @ 8/15 - Stan James http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/wimbledon-doubles/lindstedt-tecau-v-marray-nielsen/winner

Not my sort of price under normal circumstances but Stan James going 8/15 when approaching 1.4 on Betfair and genuine 2/5 shots at the most for me.

Made the Wimbledon final for the last 2 years and lost to top pairings Bryan/Bryan and Melzer/Petzschner (who they beat yesterday and looked real good in doing so). Lost one set in their last 8 matches (yesterday) and won 20/22 tiebreaks on grass.

Marray/Nielsen only been playing together a few weeks and yesterdays massive shock win over the Bryans the only win over a recognised strong doubles pairing. There is the bounce factor from yesterday, three of their wins this tournament have been in 5 sets and yesterday the Bryans were 1.13 to beat them (sp) and there is not enough between the Bryans and Lindstedt/Tecau plus yesterdays strong performance from M/N to suggest such a price differential between the two.

Only bet if still 8/15 when you get up.

Was tempted to tip up 3-0 @ 9/4 but there is always a danger of a sloppy service game or tiebreak somewhere and there is no edge on the price whereas the 8/15 when close to 1.4 on the machine and with me is a clear edge.

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 06:30, Saturday July 7th

PROFIT on Month = £248.50

Unsettled Bets = £207.50

The unsettled bets will be carried forward into August's accounts.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=9

[MereNovice]

Daily Report, as @ 06:30, Saturday July 7th


Fred backed another Dubai winner in the T20 cricket.

Fred also backed Australia in the Speedway World Cup. We shall have to wait and see how that pans out.

There was plenty of discussion on the thread.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?


It's Ladies Finals at Wimbledon when Serena Williams takes on a poorly Agnieska Radwanska. I can't see any bet there.

There's more televised Super 15 Rugby starting with the Blues versus The Force at 8:30am.

The televised Super League rugby match is Warrington v The Catalan Dragons.

There's T20 cricket and ODI's between England & Australia and West Indies & New Zealand.

The golf continues.

The Tour De France continues.

It's qualifying time in the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.

The Speedway World Cup starts but our boys (Australia!) don't feature today.

[MereNovice]

£75 min Lindstedt/Tecau to win the mens doubles final @ 8/15 - Stan James http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/wimbledon-doubles/lindstedt-tecau-v-marray-nielsen/winner

Not my sort of price under normal circumstances but Stan James going 8/15 when approaching 1.4 on Betfair and genuine 2/5 shots at the most for me.

Made the Wimbledon final for the last 2 years and lost to top pairings Bryan/Bryan and Melzer/Petzschner (who they beat yesterday and looked real good in doing so). Lost one set in their last 8 matches (yesterday) and won 20/22 tiebreaks on grass.

Marray/Nielsen only been playing together a few weeks and yesterdays massive shock win over the Bryans the only win over a recognised strong doubles pairing. There is the bounce factor from yesterday, three of their wins this tournament have been in 5 sets and yesterday the Bryans were 1.13 to beat them (sp) and there is not enough between the Bryans and Lindstedt/Tecau plus yesterdays strong performance from M/N to suggest such a price differential between the two.

Only bet if still 8/15 when you get up.

Was tempted to tip up 3-0 @ 9/4 but there is always a danger of a sloppy service game or tiebreak somewhere and there is no edge on the price whereas the 8/15 when close to 1.4 on the machine and with me is a clear edge.

On.

Horneris   StanJames   Tennis   Lindstedt/Tecau v Marray/Nielsen   Lindstedt/Tecau   8/15   £75

Lindstedt/Tecau v Marray/Nielsen-Final : Match Prices (Grand Slam Semis + Final)    Lindstedt/Tecau,    8/15
Total stake    £75.00
Estimated return    £115.00

[MereNovice]

Another £20 on Greene @ 50-1 please.

Can't have Murray winning on Sunday.

I'm going to wait for Tighty on this one.
I'm a little spooked because he came second when running a PB.
That doesn't augur well for him winning at the Olympics, surely?

[tikay]

"....PROFIT on Month = £248.50....."

Nice work!

[MereNovice]

"....PROFIT on Month = £248.50....."

Nice work!

It'll be better soon; I've put it all on ThreeLeggedTony at 999/1 in the first at Epsom; can't lose.

[aaron1867]

I would also add +1 to the QPR bet. I can't add much more to the discussion as all I know has been added to the analysis! They are a team on the up for sure and the fact that there best players are on their way out shows that they won't improve on last season for sure.

[TightEnd]

Dai Greene runs 400m hurdles PB (47.84secs) 3 weeks out from the Olympics.

UK record, fastest time in the world this year, and only two times faster since the Beijing Olympics, one of which was at altitude 

Second fastest time in the world this year as Culson won the race in 47.78 according to BBC.  Still massive improvement on his early season form.

I stand corrected

I think I said in my earlier analysis (lol) that he's value....but we don't need any more exposure. Realistically of course he needs Farah and Ennis not to win gold. I thought Ennis might win silver. That was the basis of taking 66/1

[booder]

Kell Brook v Carson Jones

Tonight.
 Hometown favourite Brook is big odds on favourite.



Brook is currently 27 wins from 27 with 17 KO's.
Jones is currently 34 wins from 44 with 24 KO's.

In my opinion Brook has been spoon fed pretty mediocre opposition and has disposed of them comfortably.The only time he has looked troubled is when he has been put under sustained pressure(as in his last two fights , v Galarza , and v Hatton who took him the 12 rounds) as his defensive work is very suspect.

Jones has come to fight !
He looks in terrific shape , is ranked two places higher than Brook , has fought better opposition,is young and hungry.....and he can bang.
In the last four years his only defeats have been by SD and UD so his ability to go the distance is not in doubt and if he can overcome Brooks expected early onslaught i think a late TKO /Decision in his favour.


Recommend  Jones  by TKO    £20 @ 11/1  Bet Victor
                  Jones by Decision  £20 @  16/1  Bet Victor