Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I advised a UFC bet a good few months ago which was thrown out by Tikay due to his dislike for the sport. I'm not actually sure why I've put the word dislike in italics, maybe as I'm not sure that was the reason, but it will be on page 100 or something ridiculous.

I'm going to try again, for a number of reasons. Firstly, it's Mere rowing the boat at the moment, and secondly, Tikay seemed to take an interest a few days back when GreekStein mentioned a potential UFC bet.

UFC 149 takes places in Calgary later this evening and it is a very decent card. The main event is for the interim bantamweight title but the bet I am suggesting for TfT emanates from the co-main event which sees the debut of this man:

Click to see full-size image.

Hector Lombard will be making his debut in the UFC with a 31-2-1 record and hasn't lost since 2006. He carries a 17 fight win streak into this fight as well as a huge hype-train after being the dominant champion of respected organisation Bellator for a number of years. He is a physical speciman as you can see from the image, and whilst some people point to his relatively short height (5'9") as an issue, his opponent, Tim Boetsch, isn't exactly going to be towering over him at 5'11". The other negative people place on Lombard is the class of his opponents, and, yes, they aren't of the highest standard but he can only beat what is put in front of him and he has moved to the UFC at, perhaps, the peak of his career.

Boetsch himself is on, what can be described as, a career best run since dropping down from light-heavyweight. However, Lombard presents a hugely different challenge to what he has faced in the weight class and Boetsch hasn't been beating a bunch of world-beaters. His last win was a come-from-behind victory over the talented Yushin Okami. In my opinion, that win has thrown Boetsch to a level he can't compete in and this will be displayed tonight with Lombard looking to put on a show and earn himself the title shot against the UFC champion, Anderson Silva.

Onto the bet, apologies for the perhaps too lengthy prelude. Boetsch has been known to start slowly in his fights, he certainly did in his last outing where he was dominated for two rounds, whilst Lombard is a beast straight off the bat with 18 career wins in the opening stanza. That coupled with the facts that I think Lombard is the class above and is looking to make a statement in his UFC debut make Paddy Power's market leading 11/4 about Lomabrd winning in the opening round the standout bet of the evening for me.

Recommend £20 on Hector Lombard to win in the 1st Round v. Tim Boetsch @ 11/4 with Paddy Power.

Yo scotty.

Trust me, I DO dislike the sport. Or, more correctly, I've tried to watch it several times, & it made me cringe, I just loathe the sheer violence of it, when I see someone on the floor, seemingly defenceless,  being pummelled by another bloke, I genuinely have to look away. That does not make it a bad sport, not at all, it's just a personal thing.

Cos is a good mate, in real life, & I was pleased we had at last got him on thread, so I thought I'd have some fun, to welcome him. I looked up the bloke he mentioned - google is so good - & discovered the phrase "H-Bomb", so made a spoof reply. The chances of Cos believing I knew a single thing about a UFC H-Bomb were precisely nil......

I don't recall your UFC bet that I "threw out", sorry, but I do vividly remember missing your splendid Greyhound Derby bets several times, which I much regret, after which I pointedly mentioned it & drew attention to your Greyhound betting skills.

Nothing personal bud, trust me. 

[mondatoo]

Just out of interest, how are SA 7/1 in cricket with Eng 6/4 ? Not saying we'll lose, massive fanboy and I'm sure our bowling attack will crush them but the prices don't make sense to me ?

I hope that you had a little punt.

Nope, was never going to tbf but just thought the price seemed big, Tighty said it wasn't and I'm sure he was right, just posted out of interest.

[MereNovice]

Just out of interest, how are SA 7/1 in cricket with Eng 6/4 ? Not saying we'll lose, massive fanboy and I'm sure our bowling attack will crush them but the prices don't make sense to me ?

I hope that you had a little punt.

Nope, was never going to tbf but just thought the price seemed big, Tighty said it wasn't and I'm sure he was right, just posted out of interest.

Keep posting these nuggets.
Fred will catch on eventually.

[mondatoo]

Just out of interest, how are SA 7/1 in cricket with Eng 6/4 ? Not saying we'll lose, massive fanboy and I'm sure our bowling attack will crush them but the prices don't make sense to me ?

I hope that you had a little punt.

Nope, was never going to tbf but just thought the price seemed big, Tighty said it wasn't and I'm sure he was right, just posted out of interest.

Keep posting these nuggets.
Fred will catch on eventually.

My previous post itt was Djokovic vs Federer at Wimbledon 

[MereNovice]

Just out of interest, how are SA 7/1 in cricket with Eng 6/4 ? Not saying we'll lose, massive fanboy and I'm sure our bowling attack will crush them but the prices don't make sense to me ?

I hope that you had a little punt.

Nope, was never going to tbf but just thought the price seemed big, Tighty said it wasn't and I'm sure he was right, just posted out of interest.

Keep posting these nuggets.
Fred will catch on eventually.

My previous post itt was Djokovic vs Federer at Wimbledon 

Oh yeah, that's why I'm living in a shed now.

[Chompy]

Why is Wiggins odds on for sports personality?

I can't think of anything more boring than someone riding a bicycle.

Worst bet in the history of betting ever. If Wiggsy (Evs) and Deana (Big Bro; 6/4) both oblige I'm giving up the game.

[scotty2hatty]

I advised a UFC bet a good few months ago which was thrown out by Tikay due to his dislike for the sport. I'm not actually sure why I've put the word dislike in italics, maybe as I'm not sure that was the reason, but it will be on page 100 or something ridiculous.

I'm going to try again, for a number of reasons. Firstly, it's Mere rowing the boat at the moment, and secondly, Tikay seemed to take an interest a few days back when GreekStein mentioned a potential UFC bet.

UFC 149 takes places in Calgary later this evening and it is a very decent card. The main event is for the interim bantamweight title but the bet I am suggesting for TfT emanates from the co-main event which sees the debut of this man:

Click to see full-size image.

Hector Lombard will be making his debut in the UFC with a 31-2-1 record and hasn't lost since 2006. He carries a 17 fight win streak into this fight as well as a huge hype-train after being the dominant champion of respected organisation Bellator for a number of years. He is a physical speciman as you can see from the image, and whilst some people point to his relatively short height (5'9") as an issue, his opponent, Tim Boetsch, isn't exactly going to be towering over him at 5'11". The other negative people place on Lombard is the class of his opponents, and, yes, they aren't of the highest standard but he can only beat what is put in front of him and he has moved to the UFC at, perhaps, the peak of his career.

Boetsch himself is on, what can be described as, a career best run since dropping down from light-heavyweight. However, Lombard presents a hugely different challenge to what he has faced in the weight class and Boetsch hasn't been beating a bunch of world-beaters. His last win was a come-from-behind victory over the talented Yushin Okami. In my opinion, that win has thrown Boetsch to a level he can't compete in and this will be displayed tonight with Lombard looking to put on a show and earn himself the title shot against the UFC champion, Anderson Silva.

Onto the bet, apologies for the perhaps too lengthy prelude. Boetsch has been known to start slowly in his fights, he certainly did in his last outing where he was dominated for two rounds, whilst Lombard is a beast straight off the bat with 18 career wins in the opening stanza. That coupled with the facts that I think Lombard is the class above and is looking to make a statement in his UFC debut make Paddy Power's market leading 11/4 about Lomabrd winning in the opening round the standout bet of the evening for me.

Recommend £20 on Hector Lombard to win in the 1st Round v. Tim Boetsch @ 11/4 with Paddy Power.

Yo scotty.

Trust me, I DO dislike the sport. Or, more correctly, I've tried to watch it several times, & it made me cringe, I just loathe the sheer violence of it, when I see someone on the floor, seemingly defenceless,  being pummelled by another bloke, I genuinely have to look away. That does not make it a bad sport, not at all, it's just a personal thing.

Cos is a good mate, in real life, & I was pleased we had at last got him on thread, so I thought I'd have some fun, to welcome him. I looked up the bloke he mentioned - google is so good - & discovered the phrase "H-Bomb", so made a spoof reply. The chances of Cos believing I knew a single thing about a UFC H-Bomb were precisely nil......

I don't recall your UFC bet that I "threw out", sorry, but I do vividly remember missing your splendid Greyhound Derby bets several times, which I much regret, after which I pointedly mentioned it & drew attention to your Greyhound betting skills.

Nothing personal bud, trust me. 

Oh, I knew it wasn't personal. And I knew you had no idea what the H-Bomb, snap knew you'd googled it.

Hope, at least, we can get a MMA winner on the board tonight.

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 07:30, Sunday July 22nd

PROFIT on Month = £141.00

Unsettled Bets = £536.50

The unsettled bets will be carried forward into August's accounts.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=9

[MereNovice]

Daily Report, as @ 07:30, Sunday July 22nd

A busy day for Fred.

We had three horses running and Doobs picked out a 10/1 winner in Danedream which was nice.

Our golf tips didn't do too well except Mr. Channing tipped Graeme McDowelll each-way and he played himself well into contention in 2nd place.

Hashim Amla trundled onwards and upwards and is 183 not out.

Our first venture into MMA/UFC betting was unsuccessful when Hector Lombard lost.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?



It's Sunday so it's another busy day on the sporting front.


The Tour De France reaches its end with a gentle pedal into Paris.

The first test between England and South Africa reaches day 4 and England are hoping for a draw. Fred is hoping for 23 more runs from Hashim Amla.

It's the last day of The Open. We've got a great sweat on Graeme McDowell. A win for him would be most excellent. A top four finish would be most acceptable.

The World Matchplay Darts continues today.

The German Grand Prix takes place early afternoon and we've been too busy even to look at it so far.


It's 5 days until the start of the Olympics.

[tikay]

What's coming up?



It's Sunday so it's another busy day on the sporting front.


The Tour De France reaches its end with a gentle pedal into Paris.

The first test between England and South Africa reaches day 4 and England are hoping for a draw. Fred is hoping for 23 more runs from Hashim Amla.

It's the last day of The Open. We've got a great sweat on Graeme McDowell. A win for him would be most excellent. A top four finish would be most acceptable.

The World Matchplay Darts continues today.

The German Grand Prix takes place early afternoon and we've been too busy even to look at it so far.

It's 5 days until the start of the Olympics.

Thanks Vince, but don't mention the Grand Prix, we must be 0 for plenty in F1! Have we yet had any winning F1 investments?

Good day in prospect today, what with the bushy-bearded but bald Amal, & that great spot by Neil Channing for McDowell. 

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?



It's Sunday so it's another busy day on the sporting front.


The Tour De France reaches its end with a gentle pedal into Paris.

The first test between England and South Africa reaches day 4 and England are hoping for a draw. Fred is hoping for 23 more runs from Hashim Amla.

It's the last day of The Open. We've got a great sweat on Graeme McDowell. A win for him would be most excellent. A top four finish would be most acceptable.

The World Matchplay Darts continues today.

The German Grand Prix takes place early afternoon and we've been too busy even to look at it so far.

It's 5 days until the start of the Olympics.

Thanks Vince, but don't mention the Grand Prix, we must be 0 for plenty in F1! Have we yet had any winning F1 investments?

Seven bets for seven losers.

We could make a musical out of it.

[tikay]

What's coming up?



It's Sunday so it's another busy day on the sporting front.


The Tour De France reaches its end with a gentle pedal into Paris.

The first test between England and South Africa reaches day 4 and England are hoping for a draw. Fred is hoping for 23 more runs from Hashim Amla.

It's the last day of The Open. We've got a great sweat on Graeme McDowell. A win for him would be most excellent. A top four finish would be most acceptable.

The World Matchplay Darts continues today.

The German Grand Prix takes place early afternoon and we've been too busy even to look at it so far.

It's 5 days until the start of the Olympics.

Thanks Vince, but don't mention the Grand Prix, we must be 0 for plenty in F1! Have we yet had any winning F1 investments?

Seven bets for seven losers.

We could make a musical out of it.

[Jeeves]

Good morning sir

I was most pleased you persuaded me to put your Amla bet on under your "MereNovice" forum account.

It needed a boost

Congratulations sir, good spot.

[tikay]

About time I got one through

King George Saturday

Danedream (10/1 with Boylesports and Betfair)

In last year's arc, she faced a field containing So You Think (multiple gr 1 winner), St Nicholas Abbey (winner breeders cup turf winner), Snow Fairy (multiple gr 1 winner), Sarafina (multiple Gr 1 winner) and a series of other group one winners.  Before the race this looked like a very strong Arc.  

She won by 5 lengths,  which matches the distances of Hellisio and Peintre celebre and is only beaten by Ribot, the great Sea Bird and Sakhee (6 lenghts)

This wasn't a one off, she was improving all season, and had smashed up her rivals in the two races prior to the Arc too.  The only blot in this story of improvement was a defeat at Saint Cloud.

in her last race, she trailed in last at Saint Cloud.

There is nothing on form between the first 3 in the betting (St Nicholas Abbey, Nathaniel and Sea Moon), abnd  were all rated 126 to 127 last season bu Timeform.  I don't think you can convincingly argue that any has definitely improved this season (two have a line through Red Cadeaux, rated 121 last season), and nathaniel just beat a hard to rate improving Farrh and a declining Twice Over (rated 128 last season).

The fourth favourite Dunaden was rated 124, and hasn't done enough to show beetter than that, as was beaten well enough by Sea Moon.  He may have been unlucky in that race, but not enough to be rated higher than the 3 above him in the betting.

Back to Danedream.

Her rating last year was 132.  As a filly, she gets a 5 lb alowance, so on last year's form she is 10 lbs clear of all the 4 horses above her in the betting.  If she can get close to that she wins.

Why isn't she favourite?  You can argue she may not have trained on (though she won her first race cosy enough); she is small; she carries a lot more weight as a 4 year old (like Sea Moon and Nathaniel don't!) you can point to the Saint Cloud failure; you can point to her rivals good form this year.

But I think it is mostly down to the fact that she is a German filly, and German horses tend to be rubbish.  In addition, a lot of people probably assume last year's Arc was some kind of fluke (my immediate thought when I watched the race), but the whole field can't have run below form.  They have probably never looked at her lead up to the Arc, given it was a bunch of races far from our shores.  

And if you don't back that, Deep Brillante is probably underated in the betting too.  3 year olds get a lot of weight, and it is a long time since Japanese horses were rubbish.

Good luck

I hope you don't mind me posting this, it is the original recommend for yesterday's King George winner. And yes, I'm talking through my pocket, I had a little on for myself.

Great stuff, Doobsy. Was Chelsea to beat Barca one of yours, too?