Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

Good morning sir

I was most pleased you persuaded me to put your Amla bet on under your "MereNovice" forum account.

It needed a boost

Congratulations sir, good spot.

Jeeves!!!
How wonderful.
It's great to see you in this thread.
Any insight for us?

[tikay]

Good morning sir

I was most pleased you persuaded me to put your Amla bet on under your "MereNovice" forum account.

It needed a boost

Congratulations sir, good spot.

Jeeves!

Good to see you, but now run along & go through today's Curragh card for me, I want to tip a winner.

[TightEnd]

I am reluctant, but there is a F1 bet today.

It involves weather, tyres, aerodynamic downforce, car upgrades and thus stochastic probability

It's a shame posting it on here is the kiss of death really.


Next....

[MereNovice]

I am reluctant, but there is a F1 bet today.

It involves weather, tyres, aerodynamic downforce, car upgrades and thus stochastic probability

It's a shame posting it on here is the kiss of death really.


Next....

Does it involve Hamilton going off the track?

[tikay]

I am reluctant, but there is a F1 bet today.

It involves weather, tyres, aerodynamic downforce, car upgrades and thus stochastic probability

It's a shame posting it on here is the kiss of death really.


Next....

Good Lord!

Don't see that word too often in punting threads......"non-deterministic" seems to sum up a lot of our bets though.....I like "analyzable" too, lol.


Stochastic (from the Greek στόχος for aim or guess) is an adjective that refers to systems whose behavior is intrinsically non-deterministic, sporadic, and categorically not intermittent (i.e. random). A stochastic process is one whose behavior is non-deterministic, in that a system's subsequent state is determined both by the process's predictable actions and by a random element. However, according to M. Kac and E. Nelson, any kind of time development (be it deterministic or essentially probabilistic) which is analyzable in terms of probability deserves the name of stochastic process.

[TightEnd]

It involves some information from my cousin, the Mclaren chief race engineer. Not sure its inside info, more clarification of what people expect, but its pertinent nonetheless

McLaren went to Hockenheim with upgrades. They'd been left behind in recent races as Ferrari and Red Bull had upgrades.

These upgrades, all about making the car ride better at the front/hook up the temperamental tyres better showed when the McLarens were fastest in free practice and then in Q1 yesterday

Then it rained.

I texted my cousin last night.

"We are set up for a dry race, we haven't got wet pace yet. Confident if weather ok"

This showed. McLaren start 6th and 7th on the Grid

Button confirmed this in his press conference, complained that McLaren were still having problems getting their wet tyres up to operating temperature, an issue that has afflicted the team all season.

"The thing that really shows it's a weakness we need to improve on is that the pole position guy is three or four seconds ahead so he's obviously getting them [the tyres] working and we're not," he said.



Today's weather?

Jennie Gow ‏@JennieGow (R5L Pit reporter)

Sun is shining - beautiful blue skies - lets go racing!! #F1


Furthermore, McLaren got through Q1 without using softs. They have an extra set of new tyres compared to most of the field


I would not expect a McLaren to win from row 3-4, but a podium is a good shout

Why?

Hockenheim has a long DRS zone and a very decent overtaking opportunity into the hairpin.

Hamilton in his interviews said

"The great thing is we have big DRS down the back straight so hopefully we'll be doing a lot of overtaking [in the race]."

A Mclaren with pace and tyres can make up places here


Furthermore two of the six ahead, can confidently be expoected to go backwards in the race

Schumacher qualified 3rd, a product of going well in the wet, and said on television "I do not expect to be challenging if its dry"

Hulkenberg in the Force India qualified 4th. Similarly, a product of jumbled qualifiying. His car was up to a second and half slower than McLarens in dry practice


http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/podium-finish

Hamilton is faster than Button. At 15/8 to podium, given the variables above and the stochastic nature of F1 results this season, he's good value. I am assuming these upgrades are for real. My cousin suggests they are.

Not a huge bet, he can get punted off at the first corner from 7th, but survive that and all the signs are that he'll be looking forwards not protecting backwards
     


 

[tikay]

Wow.

I'm glad Mere is in the chair, not me!

[MereNovice]

It involves some information from my cousin, the Mclaren chief race engineer. Not sure its inside info, more clarification of what people expect, but its pertinent nonetheless

McLaren went to Hockenheim with upgrades. They'd been left behind in recent races as Ferrari and Red Bull had upgrades.

These upgrades, all about making the car ride better at the front/hook up the temperamental tyres better showed when the McLarens were fastest in free practice and then in Q1 yesterday

Then it rained.

I texted my cousin last night.

"We are set up for a dry race, we haven't got wet pace yet. Confident if weather ok"

This showed. McLaren start 6th and 7th on the Grid

Button confirmed this in his press conference, complained that McLaren were still having problems getting their wet tyres up to operating temperature, an issue that has afflicted the team all season.

"The thing that really shows it's a weakness we need to improve on is that the pole position guy is three or four seconds ahead so he's obviously getting them [the tyres] working and we're not," he said.



Today's weather?

Jennie Gow ‏@JennieGow (R5L Pit reporter)

Sun is shining - beautiful blue skies - lets go racing!! #F1


Furthermore, McLaren got through Q1 without using softs. They have an extra set of new tyres compared to most of the field


I would not expect a McLaren to win from row 3-4, but a podium is a good shout

Why?

Hockenheim has a long DRS zone and a very decent overtaking opportunity into the hairpin.

Hamilton in his interviews said

"The great thing is we have big DRS down the back straight so hopefully we'll be doing a lot of overtaking [in the race]."

A Mclaren with pace and tyres can make up places here


Furthermore two of the six ahead, can confidently be expoected to go backwards in the race

Schumacher qualified 3rd, a product of going well in the wet, and said on television "I do not expect to be challenging if its dry"

Hulkenberg in the Force India qualified 4th. Similarly, a product of jumbled qualifiying. His car was up to a second and half slower than McLarens in dry practice


http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/podium-finish

Hamilton is faster than Button. At 15/8 to podium, given the variables above and the stochastic nature of F1 results this season, he's good value. I am assuming these upgrades are for real. My cousin suggests they are.

Not a huge bet, he can get punted off at the first corner from 7th, but survive that and all the signs are that he'll be looking forwards not protecting backwards

On.

TightEnd   BetVictor   Formula1   German Grand Prix - Podium finish   Hamilton   15/8   £40

Given that we must surely hit a Formula One winner eventually, I will be using a Martingale approach to betting this sport in future and increasing the stake each time we bet (until tikay resumes control).

Podium Finish
Lewis Hamilton
(Outright)
Odds:  15/8
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  115.00

[TightEnd]

It's going to be windy at the Open, first day that conditions might not be suitable for parkland/target golf

I wonder if that helps G-Mac, or hinders Scott?

Click to see full-size image.

I must say it will be nice to see a true links test.


Is there any value at all in someone going out early, posting a score at a big each way price, and being there as the winds get up in the afternoon?

If so, who?

[Bad Beat]

 Reading the Betfair forum there are a selection of people posting to say they are there and it isn't too windy and it's a lovely day. Looking at the scores from the early starters that would seem to be true.

 It could obviously pick up later but for someone who is currently -1 or worse to win they will need to shoot a 64 and for Adam Scott to implode and for the three in behind to not score too good.

 Even if Scott shoots a 74 it is hard for the winning score to be worse than -8 or -7 which means that the -1 guys have a lot to do and it may be reasonable to say that you can't win it if you aren't at least -3.

 That said I have a new outright bet, I will post it when I'm on (sorry).

[tikay]

Reading the Betfair forum there are a selection of people posting to say they are there and it isn't too windy and it's a lovely day. Looking at the scores from the early starters that would seem to be true.

 It could obviously pick up later but for someone who is currently -1 or worse to win they will need to shoot a 64 and for Adam Scott to implode and for the three in behind to not score too good.

 Even if Scott shoots a 74 it is hard for the winning score to be worse than -8 or -7 which means that the -1 guys have a lot to do and it may be reasonable to say that you can't win it if you aren't at least -3.

 That said I have a new outright bet, I will post it when I'm on (sorry).

Tease!

[typhoon13]

It involves some information from my cousin, the Mclaren chief race engineer. Not sure its inside info, more clarification of what people expect, but its pertinent nonetheless

McLaren went to Hockenheim with upgrades. They'd been left behind in recent races as Ferrari and Red Bull had upgrades.

These upgrades, all about making the car ride better at the front/hook up the temperamental tyres better showed when the McLarens were fastest in free practice and then in Q1 yesterday

Then it rained.

I texted my cousin last night.

"We are set up for a dry race, we haven't got wet pace yet. Confident if weather ok"

This showed. McLaren start 6th and 7th on the Grid

Button confirmed this in his press conference, complained that McLaren were still having problems getting their wet tyres up to operating temperature, an issue that has afflicted the team all season.

"The thing that really shows it's a weakness we need to improve on is that the pole position guy is three or four seconds ahead so he's obviously getting them [the tyres] working and we're not," he said.



Today's weather?

Jennie Gow ‏@JennieGow (R5L Pit reporter)

Sun is shining - beautiful blue skies - lets go racing!! #F1


Furthermore, McLaren got through Q1 without using softs. They have an extra set of new tyres compared to most of the field


I would not expect a McLaren to win from row 3-4, but a podium is a good shout

Why?

Hockenheim has a long DRS zone and a very decent overtaking opportunity into the hairpin.

Hamilton in his interviews said

"The great thing is we have big DRS down the back straight so hopefully we'll be doing a lot of overtaking [in the race]."

A Mclaren with pace and tyres can make up places here


Furthermore two of the six ahead, can confidently be expoected to go backwards in the race

Schumacher qualified 3rd, a product of going well in the wet, and said on television "I do not expect to be challenging if its dry"

Hulkenberg in the Force India qualified 4th. Similarly, a product of jumbled qualifiying. His car was up to a second and half slower than McLarens in dry practice


http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/podium-finish

Hamilton is faster than Button. At 15/8 to podium, given the variables above and the stochastic nature of F1 results this season, he's good value. I am assuming these upgrades are for real. My cousin suggests they are.

Not a huge bet, he can get punted off at the first corner from 7th, but survive that and all the signs are that he'll be looking forwards not protecting backwards
     


 

Tighty, splendid read, well done.

[Killerkilsby]

It involves some information from my cousin, the Mclaren chief race engineer. Not sure its inside info, more clarification of what people expect, but its pertinent nonetheless

McLaren went to Hockenheim with upgrades. They'd been left behind in recent races as Ferrari and Red Bull had upgrades.

These upgrades, all about making the car ride better at the front/hook up the temperamental tyres better showed when the McLarens were fastest in free practice and then in Q1 yesterday

Then it rained.

I texted my cousin last night.

"We are set up for a dry race, we haven't got wet pace yet. Confident if weather ok"

This showed. McLaren start 6th and 7th on the Grid

Button confirmed this in his press conference, complained that McLaren were still having problems getting their wet tyres up to operating temperature, an issue that has afflicted the team all season.

"The thing that really shows it's a weakness we need to improve on is that the pole position guy is three or four seconds ahead so he's obviously getting them [the tyres] working and we're not," he said.



Today's weather?

Jennie Gow ‏@JennieGow (R5L Pit reporter)

Sun is shining - beautiful blue skies - lets go racing!! #F1


Furthermore, McLaren got through Q1 without using softs. They have an extra set of new tyres compared to most of the field


I would not expect a McLaren to win from row 3-4, but a podium is a good shout

Why?

Hockenheim has a long DRS zone and a very decent overtaking opportunity into the hairpin.

Hamilton in his interviews said

"The great thing is we have big DRS down the back straight so hopefully we'll be doing a lot of overtaking [in the race]."

A Mclaren with pace and tyres can make up places here


Furthermore two of the six ahead, can confidently be expoected to go backwards in the race

Schumacher qualified 3rd, a product of going well in the wet, and said on television "I do not expect to be challenging if its dry"

Hulkenberg in the Force India qualified 4th. Similarly, a product of jumbled qualifiying. His car was up to a second and half slower than McLarens in dry practice


http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/podium-finish

Hamilton is faster than Button. At 15/8 to podium, given the variables above and the stochastic nature of F1 results this season, he's good value. I am assuming these upgrades are for real. My cousin suggests they are.

Not a huge bet, he can get punted off at the first corner from 7th, but survive that and all the signs are that he'll be looking forwards not protecting backwards
     


 

Tighty, splendid read, well done.

Agree with this all, the Mclaren has got the raw pace this weekend for sure, if he could grab a couple of places from the start a win could be on the cards.

[typhoon13]

Reading the Betfair forum there are a selection of people posting to say they are there and it isn't too windy and it's a lovely day. Looking at the scores from the early starters that would seem to be true.

 It could obviously pick up later but for someone who is currently -1 or worse to win they will need to shoot a 64 and for Adam Scott to implode and for the three in behind to not score too good.

 Even if Scott shoots a 74 it is hard for the winning score to be worse than -8 or -7 which means that the -1 guys have a lot to do and it may be reasonable to say that you can't win it if you aren't at least -3.

 That said I have a new outright bet, I will post it when I'm on (sorry).

Well that should take a max of 5 minutes to get on

Its a big market out there with plenty of layers

[Newportlad]

It involves some information from my cousin, the Mclaren chief race engineer. Not sure its inside info, more clarification of what people expect, but its pertinent nonetheless

McLaren went to Hockenheim with upgrades. They'd been left behind in recent races as Ferrari and Red Bull had upgrades.

These upgrades, all about making the car ride better at the front/hook up the temperamental tyres better showed when the McLarens were fastest in free practice and then in Q1 yesterday

Then it rained.

I texted my cousin last night.

"We are set up for a dry race, we haven't got wet pace yet. Confident if weather ok"

This showed. McLaren start 6th and 7th on the Grid

Button confirmed this in his press conference, complained that McLaren were still having problems getting their wet tyres up to operating temperature, an issue that has afflicted the team all season.

"The thing that really shows it's a weakness we need to improve on is that the pole position guy is three or four seconds ahead so he's obviously getting them [the tyres] working and we're not," he said.



Today's weather?

Jennie Gow ‏@JennieGow (R5L Pit reporter)

Sun is shining - beautiful blue skies - lets go racing!! #F1


Furthermore, McLaren got through Q1 without using softs. They have an extra set of new tyres compared to most of the field


I would not expect a McLaren to win from row 3-4, but a podium is a good shout

Why?

Hockenheim has a long DRS zone and a very decent overtaking opportunity into the hairpin.

Hamilton in his interviews said

"The great thing is we have big DRS down the back straight so hopefully we'll be doing a lot of overtaking [in the race]."

A Mclaren with pace and tyres can make up places here


Furthermore two of the six ahead, can confidently be expoected to go backwards in the race

Schumacher qualified 3rd, a product of going well in the wet, and said on television "I do not expect to be challenging if its dry"

Hulkenberg in the Force India qualified 4th. Similarly, a product of jumbled qualifiying. His car was up to a second and half slower than McLarens in dry practice


http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/german-grand-prix/podium-finish

Hamilton is faster than Button. At 15/8 to podium, given the variables above and the stochastic nature of F1 results this season, he's good value. I am assuming these upgrades are for real. My cousin suggests they are.

Not a huge bet, he can get punted off at the first corner from 7th, but survive that and all the signs are that he'll be looking forwards not protecting backwards
     


 

Tighty, splendid read, well done.

Agree with this all, the Mclaren has got the raw pace this weekend for sure, if he could grab a couple of places from the start a win could be on the cards.

Excellent piece there Tighty.  Hamilton is currently 10/1 to win on Paddypower.  Each way is 1/5 3 places. Doesn't this bet offer more of a return?