Tips for Tikay

[ACE2M]

Surely the simple question regarding Wiggins is what price will he be in a months time.  Even if he wins Olympic gold (which I think he will be about 4/6 to do) the Olympic focus will not be on him and it will likely be on Ennis, Daley, Idowu, Greene, Adlington, Farah etc.  If and when any or all of these people win gold they will trade much shorter than they are now and, as a result, Wiggins will trade higher.  The bet, to my mind, isn't about whether Wiggins deserves to win SPOTY or even whether he is value to win it (even though he isn't) it is speculation on price movement.  Every year people trade in this market too short after they have won an event.  This year, at our home Olympics, we are expected to win 25+ gold medals.  Over two weeks 24 people will be introduced into the SPOTY market (some were there already) and people like Alistair Brownlee, Shanaze Reade and Helen Tucker will probably trade below 100/1 when they literally have zero chance of winning.  Laying them would be the right thing to do too if Fred had the bankroll.   I think there is probably something like a 45-50% chance Wiggins wins but I think the chances of him trading higher in the next month are in the 90%+ range.  Incidentally I think we should trade out at 2/1+

this was my point, better expressed

This is one of those occasions I think we should DEFINITELY consider a trade out of the lay after the Olympics.

I was working on the basis that Fred doesn't lay to back?  If we are doing that then fine.

I'm pretty sure the cycling comes before the athletics? i.e. if he wins the time trial that would be the optimum time to lay him surely at 1/4 - 1/5 ish? I think we went to early.

[MereNovice]

The response from PaddyPower to the viewer ratings figure:

The market would be settled on BBC official figures. The BBC would calculate viewer numbers and release their viewer ratings (TAM ratings). Each Terrestrial station releases its own TAM ratings  usually published through the media, for example in the Guardian
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/tvratings

An update from PaddyPower.

"Further to your query on Olympic Opening Cermony average viewing figures, our Novelties traders have informed me this morning,  that bets will be settled according to the figures reported on   the following website:   www.digitalspy.co.uk "

I'm still not sure how this rating is working out but I think that we can all get some feel for the numbers based on a comparison to other high visibility programs.

I cannot see the actual ratings on that Site, Vince, just articles about them.

Where exactly are they, please?

Apologies, I didn't check before posting. I got distracted by the thought of lollipops - it's been a while since I had a lollipop.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/completecoverage/ratings/ seems to be the best place on that site but it is not presented anywhere in a nice table as far as I can see.

Sad to see Big Brother falling to 870,000 viewers, though. I think Chompy's BB thread gets more viewers than that.

[The Camel]

One of the curiosities of Sports Betting, in my opinion of course, is that the more niche the event/selection/market, the more you should have on.

This is a woeful oversimplification of course - you should actually be having your largest bets where the discrepancy between the available price and the 'true price' is greatest. Difficult to ever know the 'true price' mind. Bugger. The two are linked however...

Let me give a couple of examples...

(A) Man Utd are set to play away at Newcastle in the Premier League. Newcastle have outperformed expectations all season, Cabaye is playing well etc. etc. etc. There is a wealth of interest/knowledge, both recreational and professional, about the game. The bookmakers odds compilers have had their say, Bloom/Edery et. al are involved, huge volumes are traded in Asia....and the recreational sorts are playing too.

The numbers interested --> Huge numbers traded --> Ever decreasing market inefficiencies, which, going back to the second point, suggests such events should see minimal stakes from someone seeking to make a profit. The outcome of the match is of course 1-X-2, meaning there will always be winners who can be convinced they made a value bet ("'cos it won"), though in reality they have simply far performed their EV due to the binary nature of the outcome.

(B) Making Eyes is set to run in the 220pm in Vichy, with Hugo Palmer having taken her over to France for the occasion. The race itself is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. French legislation means betting is through the PMU, a Tote. The horse/trainer are foreign, the French don't care for it much/know much about it. Hugo and the boys however have been prepping for this campaign. They know the French market will neglect the filly, leaving her overpriced versus her true probability of winning owing to the market's imperfection (unlike Example A).

It's markets like this where, with knowledge that you are convinced is beyond that available to the market at large, you must ramp your stakes versus more 'recreational' activity in order to turn a profit.



All a long, rambling way of saying next time you get a 'tip' for the Biathlon, Curling or something similar from someone who you would trust beyond the market and the odds compilers who give such markets nothing more than a fleeting glance and a reduced stake factor....barrel in.

Great post.

The most fun I've had punting this year was on where Peyton Manning would end up playing this season.

There was only a couple of books betting on it and there was basically no Betfair market (doubt £100 was traded in total on the machine).

So basically it was me v the odds compilers. Just like the old days.

I did more (or better) research than them and it meant I got ridiculous value and ended up with a great book.

Marginal betting opportunities ftw.

[bobby1]

mmmmm lollipops

Click to see full-size image.

She needs a bigger bra

She needs a smaller bra!

[Tal]

I regularly peruse digital spy (please don't judge me!). There tends to be an article the day after a particularly significant TV event (xfactor/strictly opening night, someone is shot in [insert soap], season finale of popular show, major sporting event) which tells you the figures of that channel versus the others.

Surprised PP is going by that as digital spy is a secondary source (it gets the data from someone else). Probably doesn't matter, I suppose.

If you want to know who's favourite for the lead female role in the upcoming film adaptation of Fifty Shades of Grey, which two judges have reportedly been kicked off The Voice series 2 and what Madonna has had to say about Lady Gaga (it must be masochistic, given that they're exactly the flippin same), digital spy is the place to go.

[edgascoigne]

So, when a relative stranger or thread newbie arrives & pops up a tip for, say, Speedway, none of us have the faintest idea if it is logical, well-reasoned, or whether the chap has grasped the "value" notion. It's like bumping into a stranger in Ladbrokes one day who says "psst, back Westmead Whatever, it's nailed on". We just don't know, but we would not take his advice, would we? At the very least, we'd be cautious, surely?

Agreed. Long-term the toughest two things in punting (in my opinion) aren't finding opinions or winners, but rather determining (quickly) who to listen to and getting on...

[MereNovice]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jul/09/andy-murray-wimbledon-final-17m-viewers

Two interesting figures for me in this article.

Peak viewing figure: 16.9 million

Average viewing figure: 11.4 million

I'm still none the wiser about how they calculate the average (i.e. how often they sample and how long you have to watch to be counted at all) but, if the viewing profile for the Olympic opening ceremony is the same, I'd say that this indicates a lower figure than I had previously thought.

[tikay]

I regularly peruse digital spy (please don't judge me!). There tends to be an article the day after a particularly significant TV event (xfactor/strictly opening night, someone is shot in [insert soap], season finale of popular show, major sporting event) which tells you the figures of that channel versus the others.

Surprised PP is going by that as digital spy is a secondary source (it gets the data from someone else). Probably doesn't matter, I suppose.

If you want to know who's favourite for the lead female role in the upcoming film adaptation of Fifty Shades of Grey, which two judges have reportedly been kicked off The Voice series 2 and what Madonna has had to say about Lady Gaga (it must be masochistic, given that they're exactly the flippin same), digital spy is the place to go.

Agreed totally. A very odd way of going about it, when transparency is so necessary, & readily available.

[The Camel]

So, when a relative stranger or thread newbie arrives & pops up a tip for, say, Speedway, none of us have the faintest idea if it is logical, well-reasoned, or whether the chap has grasped the "value" notion. It's like bumping into a stranger in Ladbrokes one day who says "psst, back Westmead Whatever, it's nailed on". We just don't know, but we would not take his advice, would we? At the very least, we'd be cautious, surely?

Agreed. Long-term the toughest two things in punting (in my opinion) aren't finding opinions or winners, but rather determining (quickly) who to listen to and getting on...

Better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge.

I always lump on anything Chompy suggests.

[tikay]

We are already on today's T20 Somerset v Essex I believe.

Any views on these two markets, please?

Boundaries in Match, over or under 39.5 are both priced @ 5/6.

Most Sixes - Somerset 4/6, Tie, 6/1, Essex 13/8.

Is 13/8 Essex a fair price?

Both prices are with Wm Hill.

[TheChipPrince]

Value in fred's 11/2 Wiggins/Ennis/Adlington gold treble, Wiggins will only shorten even more before next wednesday

[TightEnd]

We are already on today's T20 Somerset v Essex I believe.

Any views on these two markets, please?

Boundaries in Match, over or under 39.5 are both priced @ 5/6.

Most Sixes - Somerset 4/6, Tie, 6/1, Essex 13/8.

Is 13/8 Essex a fair price?

Both prices are with Wm Hill.

Thread is on Essex

Dubai's rationale is that Essex have a strong T20 team, Somerset are a bit weaker than normal. In effect its an even money game where Somerset are priced at odds on. Some home advantage, maybe, but the value is with Essex

Both are big hitting (in theory) teams on a small ground on a perfect day for batting

I can't express a view on who will hit most sixes, really. Could be either

I think under 40 boundaries looks low

20 an innings, 1 an over, at Taunton?

Sixes market is priced at 11, give or take, so you need 29 fours in 40 overs....

I am thinking the overs, here...

[Doobs]

One of the curiosities of Sports Betting, in my opinion of course, is that the more niche the event/selection/market, the more you should have on.

This is a woeful oversimplification of course - you should actually be having your largest bets where the discrepancy between the available price and the 'true price' is greatest. Difficult to ever know the 'true price' mind. Bugger. The two are linked however...

Let me give a couple of examples...

(A) Man Utd are set to play away at Newcastle in the Premier League. Newcastle have outperformed expectations all season, Cabaye is playing well etc. etc. etc. There is a wealth of interest/knowledge, both recreational and professional, about the game. The bookmakers odds compilers have had their say, Bloom/Edery et. al are involved, huge volumes are traded in Asia....and the recreational sorts are playing too.

The numbers interested --> Huge numbers traded --> Ever decreasing market inefficiencies, which, going back to the second point, suggests such events should see minimal stakes from someone seeking to make a profit. The outcome of the match is of course 1-X-2, meaning there will always be winners who can be convinced they made a value bet ("'cos it won"), though in reality they have simply far performed their EV due to the binary nature of the outcome.

(B) Making Eyes is set to run in the 220pm in Vichy, with Hugo Palmer having taken her over to France for the occasion. The race itself is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. French legislation means betting is through the PMU, a Tote. The horse/trainer are foreign, the French don't care for it much/know much about it. Hugo and the boys however have been prepping for this campaign. They know the French market will neglect the filly, leaving her overpriced versus her true probability of winning owing to the market's imperfection (unlike Example A).

It's markets like this where, with knowledge that you are convinced is beyond that available to the market at large, you must ramp your stakes versus more 'recreational' activity in order to turn a profit.



All a long, rambling way of saying next time you get a 'tip' for the Biathlon, Curling or something similar from someone who you would trust beyond the market and the odds compilers who give such markets nothing more than a fleeting glance and a reduced stake factor....barrel in.

Great post.

The most fun I've had punting this year was on where Peyton Manning would end up playing this season.

There was only a couple of books betting on it and there was basically no Betfair market (doubt £100 was traded in total on the machine).

So basically it was me v the odds compilers. Just like the old days.

I did more (or better) research than them and it meant I got ridiculous value and ended up with a great book.

Marginal betting opportunities ftw.

Just a problem with the thread really.  You should be aiming at the marginal events but very few are/should be trusted to have a view that should be always listened to.  I am not one of the elite and am fine with that. 

FWIW I recently made close to £300 laying on the betfair WSOP market.  The prices people were taking were clearly "wrong".  Guess people overestimate the skill in tournament poker.  I had cleaned up by the time Venessa Sbelst was gone. I wasn't expecting to still be able to do this on betfair, but marginal markets FTW clearly.  I would have pointed this out to the thread but I am fairly sure that the thread only has a few hundred quid on betfair and the thread would have needed more than this.

Thinly disguised.

[tikay]

We are already on today's T20 Somerset v Essex I believe.

Any views on these two markets, please?

Boundaries in Match, over or under 39.5 are both priced @ 5/6.

Most Sixes - Somerset 4/6, Tie, 6/1, Essex 13/8.

Is 13/8 Essex a fair price?

Both prices are with Wm Hill.

Thread is on Essex

Dubai's rationale is that Essex have a strong T20 team, Somerset are a bit weaker than normal. In effect its an even money game where Somerset are priced at odds on. Some home advantage, maybe, but the value is with Essex

Both are big hitting (in theory) teams on a small ground on a perfect day for batting

I can't express a view on who will hit most sixes, really. Could be either

I think under 40 boundaries looks low

20 an innings, 1 an over, at Taunton?

Sixes market is priced at 11, give or take, so you need 29 fours in 40 overs....

I am thinking the overs, here...

We are of like mind, my fuddled & non-cricketing mind was thinking "Taunton (small ground), lovely weather, firm outrfield = boundary-fest".

One an over looks very achievable to me.

Now we have to try & evaluate whether 5/6 represents value. I'll go consult my Kelly Criterion Model jobbie, be right back.

[tikay]

Lol @ Doobsy's "thin"......