Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

One of the curiosities of Sports Betting, in my opinion of course, is that the more niche the event/selection/market, the more you should have on.

This is a woeful oversimplification of course - you should actually be having your largest bets where the discrepancy between the available price and the 'true price' is greatest. Difficult to ever know the 'true price' mind. Bugger. The two are linked however...

Let me give a couple of examples...

(A) Man Utd are set to play away at Newcastle in the Premier League. Newcastle have outperformed expectations all season, Cabaye is playing well etc. etc. etc. There is a wealth of interest/knowledge, both recreational and professional, about the game. The bookmakers odds compilers have had their say, Bloom/Edery et. al are involved, huge volumes are traded in Asia....and the recreational sorts are playing too.

The numbers interested --> Huge numbers traded --> Ever decreasing market inefficiencies, which, going back to the second point, suggests such events should see minimal stakes from someone seeking to make a profit. The outcome of the match is of course 1-X-2, meaning there will always be winners who can be convinced they made a value bet ("'cos it won"), though in reality they have simply far performed their EV due to the binary nature of the outcome.

(B) Making Eyes is set to run in the 220pm in Vichy, with Hugo Palmer having taken her over to France for the occasion. The race itself is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. French legislation means betting is through the PMU, a Tote. The horse/trainer are foreign, the French don't care for it much/know much about it. Hugo and the boys however have been prepping for this campaign. They know the French market will neglect the filly, leaving her overpriced versus her true probability of winning owing to the market's imperfection (unlike Example A).

It's markets like this where, with knowledge that you are convinced is beyond that available to the market at large, you must ramp your stakes versus more 'recreational' activity in order to turn a profit.



All a long, rambling way of saying next time you get a 'tip' for the Biathlon, Curling or something similar from someone who you would trust beyond the market and the odds compilers who give such markets nothing more than a fleeting glance and a reduced stake factor....barrel in.

Great post.

The most fun I've had punting this year was on where Peyton Manning would end up playing this season.

There was only a couple of books betting on it and there was basically no Betfair market (doubt £100 was traded in total on the machine).

So basically it was me v the odds compilers. Just like the old days.

I did more (or better) research than them and it meant I got ridiculous value and ended up with a great book.

Marginal betting opportunities ftw.

Just a problem with the thread really.  You should be aiming at the marginal events but very few are/should be trusted to have a view that should be always listened to.  I am not one of the elite and am fine with that. 

FWIW I recently made close to £300 laying on the betfair WSOP market.  The prices people were taking were clearly "wrong".  Guess people overestimate the skill in tournament poker.  I had cleaned up by the time Venessa Sbelst was gone. I wasn't expecting to still be able to do this on betfair, but marginal markets FTW clearly.  I would have pointed this out to the thread but I am fairly sure that the thread only has a few hundred quid on betfair and the thread would have needed more than this.

Thinly disguised.

2010 I laid Vennessa Selbst 30/1 she won the WSOP Ladies event.

Amazing ego to think she was < 30/1!

[MereNovice]

We are already on today's T20 Somerset v Essex I believe.

Any views on these two markets, please?

Boundaries in Match, over or under 39.5 are both priced @ 5/6.

Most Sixes - Somerset 4/6, Tie, 6/1, Essex 13/8.

Is 13/8 Essex a fair price?

Both prices are with Wm Hill.

Thread is on Essex

Dubai's rationale is that Essex have a strong T20 team, Somerset are a bit weaker than normal. In effect its an even money game where Somerset are priced at odds on. Some home advantage, maybe, but the value is with Essex

Both are big hitting (in theory) teams on a small ground on a perfect day for batting

I can't express a view on who will hit most sixes, really. Could be either

I think under 40 boundaries looks low

20 an innings, 1 an over, at Taunton?

Sixes market is priced at 11, give or take, so you need 29 fours in 40 overs....

I am thinking the overs, here...

Ladbrokes are 5/6 both @ 26.5 4's
Bodog are 10/11 both @ 27.5 4's

[Matt50]

mmmmm lollipops

Click to see full-size image.

She needs a bigger bra

She needs a smaller bra!

She needs to take off her bra!!

[MereNovice]

Some statistics.
For Somerset's five home games in T20 this season.



   Score   Fours   Sixes      Score   Fours   Sixes
Somerset   191   12   7   Warwicks   128   9   2
Northants   137   13   1   Somerset   141   14   1
Glam   178   17   7   Somerset   182   21*   3
Somerset   140   10   5   Gloucs   141   15   4
Worcs   173   13   4   Somerset   119   10   2

*Hildreth hit 15 fours in this match!

All matches were full games.

[tikay]

Some statistics.
For Somerset's five home games in T20 this season.



   Score   Fours   Sixes      Score   Fours   Sixes
Somerset   191   12   7   Warwicks   128   9   2
Northants   137   13   1   Somerset   141   14   1
Glam   178   17   7   Somerset   182   21*   3
Somerset   140   10   5   Gloucs   141   15   4
Worcs   173   13   4   Somerset   119   10   2

*Hildreth hit 15 fours in this match!

All matches were full games.

Crikey, that blows my theory out of the water.

Even with that "15 x 4's by Hildereth" game, the average boundaries per game only comes to 34, remove that the Hildreth Humping & it comes down to 30.5.

Think we need a Tighty Geography lesson, or a map of Somerset or somesuch.

[MereNovice]

I don't think that I can decide without seeing the teams by which time the markets may have gone.
I'm not sure when they get taken down.

If you aggregate the fours and sixes markets on the spread firms:

SpEx 39-43
SpIn 39.5 to 42.5

[TightEnd]

Those stats are skewed by

a) Games in the group stages played in questionable weather, on greenish pitches. Two of the matches saw first innings scores of 140 or below. Rare at Taunton

b) A more reasonable stat is to take the three matches where the first innings was "par"

That produces 108 boundaries in 3 games, or 36 a match.

On below par pitches, with a scores 128 and 118 in there chasing

Take the two bad chasing matches out, and the Hildreth game has nearly 50 boundaries

Hildreth is one of the most talented hitters on the circuit


The question is, does the make up of the two teams and the weather make 40 or above likely?

I think it does, because I don't think 180 up front will be followed by 130-140

Its more likely to be 180, chased or 180 followed by 165 to my mind

These are two high scoring teams

[TightEnd]

and its a glorious ground




and here's a lovely sit on at Taunton school

[Chompy]

Valoooo.

David Ball joined Fleetwood from the mighty Posh yesterday. VCBet go 50-1 he's top league two scorer. Mahoosive price imo.

The guy is borderline Championship class and a real 100%er. Just never got the chance at Posh as always a couple of bigger names ahead of him in the pecking order.

Fleetwood are 7/1 for the league. Not sure their main striker should be five-oh fifty.

[MereNovice]

If tikay was picking the tips that last picture would have been enough to get him to lump the whole roll on.

I absolutely take your point about the weather.

Some more statistics for the saddos.
Here are the figures from all nine (completed) Essex matches.

Surrey   128   15   0   Essex   111   8   1
Essex   158   12   5   Kent   155   13   5
Essex   155   12   4   Middlesex   149   10   6
Surrey   144   11   3   Essex   145   9   5
Sussex   209   14   8   Essex   190   11   11
Essex   177   15   8   Sussex   181   16   6
Essex   176   8   10   Hampshire   177   14   7
Middlesex   109   7   1   Essex   110   11   3
Essex   149   4   4   Kent   126   7   3
                     
Total      98   43         99   47

Average fours: 21.9
Average boundaries: 31.9

[MereNovice]

Valoooo.

David Ball joined Fleetwood from the mighty Posh yesterday. VCBet go 50-1 he's top league two scorer. Mahoosive price imo.

The guy is borderline Championship class and a real 100%er. Just never got the chance at Posh as always a couple of bigger names ahead of him in the pecking order.

Fleetwood are 7/1 for the league. Not sure their main striker should be five-oh fifty.

How about 25/1?

[TightEnd]

If tikay was picking the tips that last picture would have been enough to get him to lump the whole roll on.

I absolutely take your point about the weather.

Some more statistics for the saddos.
Here are the figures from all nine (completed) Essex matches.

Surrey   128   15   0   Essex   111   8   1
Essex   158   12   5   Kent   155   13   5
Essex   155   12   4   Middlesex   149   10   6
Surrey   144   11   3   Essex   145   9   5
Sussex   209   14   8   Essex   190   11   11
Essex   177   15   8   Sussex   181   16   6
Essex   176   8   10   Hampshire   177   14   7
Middlesex   109   7   1   Essex   110   11   3
Essex   149   4   4   Kent   126   7   3
                     
Total      98   43         99   47

Average fours: 21.9
Average boundaries: 31.9

My point is you can disregard all games with aggregates runs less than 320. (160 twice, 170 plays 150, 180 plays 140 being the central case for this game in this weather on this ground with thes eline ups)

In the three games above with aggs above 320 you smash 40 twice, and hit 39 once

[rfgqqabc]

Mere these stats are somewhat irrelevant. Taunton is well known for being a short ground with lots of runs available. I'd be somewhat reluctant backing overs here with this factored in, but Spin seem to on side with us, how close is there spread to making 40 boundaries good value? These T20 markets have been priced up poorly in the past, I'm not taking anything on the over 40 boundaries as I'm already heavily involved in the match in similar markets. We also have an edge as Dubai confirmed Shah as starting, and this may not be common knowledge yet, and certainly did not appear so yday.

Fantastic piece by Ed on the less common betting markets, problem is it is hard to get on, although this isn't a problem for Freds wage size at the moment, I'd be curious to see how well we got on post olympics on markets such as Athletics, were firms are renowned for never laying a bet of any size.

[Chompy]

Oops.

Shybet have prices up, even though not on oddschecker. They told me last night they'd email quotes for Ball and Revell by this morning. That sure happened. Might be worth chasing up, see if you can nick a bit off 33?

[MereNovice]

Mere these stats are somewhat irrelevant. Taunton is well known for being a short ground with lots of runs available. I'd be somewhat reluctant backing overs here with this factored in, but Spin seem to on side with us, how close is there spread to making 40 boundaries good value? These T20 markets have been priced up poorly in the past, I'm not taking anything on the over 40 boundaries as I'm already heavily involved in the match in similar markets. We also have an edge as Dubai confirmed Shah as starting, and this may not be common knowledge yet, and certainly did not appear so yday.

Fantastic piece by Ed on the less common betting markets, problem is it is hard to get on, although this isn't a problem for Freds wage size at the moment, I'd be curious to see how well we got on post olympics on markets such as Athletics, were firms are renowned for never laying a bet of any size.

I'm not sure how the figures for all 5 matches played at Taunton are irrelevant.

The issues as I see them are:
1. The conditions at Taunton today compared to the earlier matches - it looks as though it's a scorcher
2. The merits of the bowling attacks

I'm well aware of the nature of Taunton.
However, with boundary ropes being brought in a long way at other grounds for T20 matches, it is less the size of the ground and more the flat tracks that are the major issue.