Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I think WillHill went 5/4 Cavendish yesterday. If that appeared again it would be value.

I'm going with Sagan ew at 13/2 with PP. He won't suffer on the hill and I think he can go from further out with EBH, Cancellara, Gilbert etc but also compete in the bunch sprint with Greipel Cav and Goss.

Thanks.

You prefer Sagan EW @ 13/2 to a Cav win @ 5/4?

I have no idea about this, but instinctively, & no doubt wrongly, I lean towards the 13/2 shot.

I'm going to be Offline for an hour, will muse further when I return. 10am start, I gather.

PS - Cav currently best priced 10/11.

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/cycling/mens/road-race/winner

I think you have missed the value.   As such the answer should be no bet?

Congrats to tightly and thread.  Obviously got a good price from us mugs on UAE.
 even if they don't win.   Moved from into .

Yes & yes. And no good looking over our shoulder now, we can't bet everything. Like poker, it's good to learn to pass sometimes.

[Josedinho]

I think WillHill went 5/4 Cavendish yesterday. If that appeared again it would be value.

I'm going with Sagan ew at 13/2 with PP. He won't suffer on the hill and I think he can go from further out with EBH, Cancellara, Gilbert etc but also compete in the bunch sprint with Greipel Cav and Goss.

Thanks.

You prefer Sagan EW @ 13/2 to a Cav win @ 5/4?

I have no idea about this, but instinctively, & no doubt wrongly, I lean towards the 13/2 shot.

I'm going to be Offline for an hour, will muse further when I return. 10am start, I gather.

PS - Cav currently best priced 10/11.

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/cycling/mens/road-race/winner

Yeh prefer Sagan EW but I'm not a finely tuned betting machine. I take stuff into account that shouldn't matter.
For example if Cav wins I'll be delighted. I'll happily do my dough and wouldn't need a penny on him to be ecstatic whether he goes off 10/11 or 5/4.
I think the place part of the Sagan bet is really good value and the man is a machine so happy for him to carry my money but knowing I'll be cheering for Cav and he could be a bit of compensation if Cav doesn't do it. Everyone will be riding against Cav and GB and splitting their teams between break and peleton forcing GB to do all the work. They did it in the Worlds but had more men. Can see Stannard absolutely burying himself today.

[tikay]

I think WillHill went 5/4 Cavendish yesterday. If that appeared again it would be value.

I'm going with Sagan ew at 13/2 with PP. He won't suffer on the hill and I think he can go from further out with EBH, Cancellara, Gilbert etc but also compete in the bunch sprint with Greipel Cav and Goss.

Thanks.

You prefer Sagan EW @ 13/2 to a Cav win @ 5/4?

I have no idea about this, but instinctively, & no doubt wrongly, I lean towards the 13/2 shot.

I'm going to be Offline for an hour, will muse further when I return. 10am start, I gather.

PS - Cav currently best priced 10/11.

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/cycling/mens/road-race/winner

Yeh prefer Sagan EW but I'm not a finely tuned betting machine. I take stuff into account that shouldn't matter.
For example if Cav wins I'll be delighted. I'll happily do my dough and wouldn't need a penny on him to be ecstatic whether he goes off 10/11 or 5/4.
I think the place part of the Sagan bet is really good value and the man is a machine so happy for him to carry my money but knowing I'll be cheering for Cav and he could be a bit of compensation if Cav doesn't do it. Everyone will be riding against Cav and GB and splitting their teams between break and peleton forcing GB to do all the work. They did it in the Worlds but had more men. Can see Stannard absolutely burying himself today.

Thanks.

I've had a small bet off-Thread for Sagan.

[TightEnd]

BBC viewing figures for London 2012 Opening Ceremony. Average Audience: 22.4m. Share: 82%. Five min Peak: 26.9m

[Skippy]

I think the value in the cycling could be to back Cav but lay the place on Betfair. I don't see him finishing 3rd- either the breakaway gets there (in which case he doesn't get a medal at all) or there is a sprint (in which case he does win). Not sure how to work out the maths though :-(.

[tikay]

BBC viewing figures for London 2012 Opening Ceremony. Average Audience: 22.4m. Share: 82%. Five min Peak: 26.9m

Thanks Rich.

Can you remember what the "recommend" was?

[TightEnd]

BBC viewing figures for London 2012 Opening Ceremony. Average Audience: 22.4m. Share: 82%. Five min Peak: 26.9m

Thanks Rich.

Can you remember what the "recommend" was?

Not off hand

Below 26m, perhaps..average view?

[TightEnd]

Comparable Olympic TV viewing figures: Barcelona Opening Ceremony 11.3 million, Athens 8.7 million, Beijing 5.1 million.

[tikay]

Comparable Olympic TV viewing figures: Barcelona Opening Ceremony 11.3 million, Athens 8.7 million, Beijing 5.1 million.

I assume that means "Great Britain" viewing figures?

[TightEnd]

Comparable Olympic TV viewing figures: Barcelona Opening Ceremony 11.3 million, Athens 8.7 million, Beijing 5.1 million.

I assume that means "Great Britain" viewing figures?

Yes.

[Skippy]

I think the value in the cycling could be to back Cav but lay the place on Betfair. I don't see him finishing 3rd- either the breakaway gets there (in which case he doesn't get a medal at all) or there is a sprint (in which case he does win). Not sure how to work out the maths though :-(.

I've done the maths- it isn't good value.

[Jamier-Host]

BBC viewing figures for London 2012 Opening Ceremony. Average Audience: 22.4m. Share: 82%. Five min Peak: 26.9m

Thanks Rich.

Can you remember what the "recommend" was?

Not off hand

Below 26m, perhaps..average view?

Yep recommendation from thekevilfish was under 26m, split between "Under 22m" and "22m-26m"

hello blonde, long time lurker, first time poster.
Paddy power has priced up the average number of people to watch the opening ceremony of the olympics as follows;
less than 22mil - 7/4
22-26m - 11/4
26-30m - 11/4
30-34m - 7/2
over 34m - 4/1
 
This seems disproportionally weighted towards the higher figures, for example the England v Italy had  average viewing figures of just over 20m and a peak high of just under 25m. The royal wedding had peak figures (not average) of 25m across two channels. I'd put over 34m at 100/1. The opening ceremony lasts for 3 hours and finishes at midnight i think it incredibly unlikely to average over 26m. Therefore I've bet £100 on less than 22m and £75 on 22-26m which will profit £100ish providing average figures are less than 26m. Thoughts?   

After the prices were revised I had suggested going for the "22m-26m" bracket @ 7/2 but didn't put it up as a tip.  Oops.

[MereNovice]

Olympics.
Women's Tennis.
Pironkova v Cibulkova
Boylesports have Cibulkova at 3/4 (1.75)
Recommend £80 to win £60.

Cibulkova has a 5-0 record against Pironkova and is in form (although she did lose in the first round at Wimbledon!).

This price is much more generous than other bookies.
http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/tennis/womens-singles/tsvetana-pironkova-v-dominika-cibulkova/winner

[tikay]

BBC viewing figures for London 2012 Opening Ceremony. Average Audience: 22.4m. Share: 82%. Five min Peak: 26.9m

Thanks Rich.

Can you remember what the "recommend" was?

Not off hand

Below 26m, perhaps..average view?

Yep recommendation from thekevilfish was under 26m, split between "Under 22m" and "22m-26m"

hello blonde, long time lurker, first time poster.
Paddy power has priced up the average number of people to watch the opening ceremony of the olympics as follows;
less than 22mil - 7/4
22-26m - 11/4
26-30m - 11/4
30-34m - 7/2
over 34m - 4/1
 
This seems disproportionally weighted towards the higher figures, for example the England v Italy had  average viewing figures of just over 20m and a peak high of just under 25m. The royal wedding had peak figures (not average) of 25m across two channels. I'd put over 34m at 100/1. The opening ceremony lasts for 3 hours and finishes at midnight i think it incredibly unlikely to average over 26m. Therefore I've bet £100 on less than 22m and £75 on 22-26m which will profit £100ish providing average figures are less than 26m. Thoughts?   

After the prices were revised I had suggested going for the "22m-26m" bracket @ 7/2 but didn't put it up as a tip.  Oops.

Bugger!

Sorry KevilFish, it was your debut tip, too. Sorry mate.

[MereNovice]

BBC viewing figures for London 2012 Opening Ceremony. Average Audience: 22.4m. Share: 82%. Five min Peak: 26.9m

Thanks Rich.

Can you remember what the "recommend" was?

Not off hand

Below 26m, perhaps..average view?

Yep recommendation from thekevilfish was under 26m, split between "Under 22m" and "22m-26m"

hello blonde, long time lurker, first time poster.
Paddy power has priced up the average number of people to watch the opening ceremony of the olympics as follows;
less than 22mil - 7/4
22-26m - 11/4
26-30m - 11/4
30-34m - 7/2
over 34m - 4/1
 
This seems disproportionally weighted towards the higher figures, for example the England v Italy had  average viewing figures of just over 20m and a peak high of just under 25m. The royal wedding had peak figures (not average) of 25m across two channels. I'd put over 34m at 100/1. The opening ceremony lasts for 3 hours and finishes at midnight i think it incredibly unlikely to average over 26m. Therefore I've bet £100 on less than 22m and £75 on 22-26m which will profit £100ish providing average figures are less than 26m. Thoughts?  

After the prices were revised I had suggested going for the "22m-26m" bracket @ 7/2 but didn't put it up as a tip.  Oops.

Bugger!

Sorry KevilFish, it was your debut tip, too. Sorry mate.

Missing this is my fault.
I dithered far too much.
Congratulations to thekevilfish for a great tip.