Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

no idea if thread would be interested in this but i feel the prices are wrong

Pavel Pogrebnyak   
4/6
Rickie Lambert   
11/10

premiership goalscorer match bet with corals

interested in views on this

for me lambert is a cert to play up top for the saints all season and has a very similar profile to his old club mate grant holt.

I am not convinced by prog despite his career goalscoring record being more than fair, i am also not entirley convinced he will play every game and feel he maybe rotated with jason roberts (cant see them starting together not enough mobility)

any views?

[Snowball]

I have resolved to follow the BadBeat model for suggesting bets on this thread, which is precisely why I shalln't make such proposals often.

Nevertheless, one of the reasons for making a proposal is knowledge that might not be available to the odds compilers and I believe I have come by some such information.

I would certainly emplore the horse racing experts to speak before any bets are placed of course. However...

At Newbury on Sunday, a horse led by 4 lengths with a furlong to go. The jockey released her grip and the horse duly obliged in easing off. She hadn't seen the second placed horse coming and the cruise towards the line wasn't quick enough. The jockey couldn't get her ride going again and it lost by 3/4 of a length.

My father was today in the company of one of the owners of said horse. To say the owner was furious with the performance would be an understatement, as they were counting a substantial return with a furlong to go on their 5-1 horse.

The horse runs again tomorrow. Although based at Newmarket, she runs up at Pontefract in a £3,500 group 5 race. Currently around the 2-1 mark and over the same distance.

I am therefore proposing a bet (of a size on advice from those who understand such matters) on THE DUCKING STOOL in the 2.30 at Pontefract.

What does Fred think?

The Jockey looked a lot more tired than the Horse.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/05-08-2012/newbury/result/515257/mc-seafoods-amateur-riders-handicap-div-2/video

[scotty2hatty]

Our Puppy Derby selection ran well, but the draw was decisive, and the 1st and 2nd were too good, so 3rd was probably a fair result.

Loved the Puppy Derby sweat, thanks Scotty. Irish Derby next.....

Gutted we couldn't get the win. Didn't think the stake recommendation versus price warranted an each way suggestion. It's something I'll consider for future recommendations.

Definitely think we got the best priced dog pre-comp.

[Chompy]

Never back unlucky losers in handicaps Tal. One of the better ones that. They usually get overbet and normally weren't as unlucky as they looked.

Meanwhile...

Eastward Ho (3.40 Newc) was backed from 7-1 into 5-2 at Hamilton on Saturday night before it was washed away by a monsoon. This is a weaker race but Paddy Power (who are NOT a bookmaker) will lay 11-2. If you're lucky.

[ripple11]

Never back unlucky losers in handicaps Tal. One of the better ones that. They usually get overbet and normally weren't as unlucky as they looked.

Meanwhile...

Eastward Ho (3.40 Newc) was backed from 7-1 into 5-2 at Hamilton on Saturday night before it was washed away by a monsoon. This is a weaker race but Paddy Power (who are NOT a bookmaker) will lay 11-2. If you're lucky.

Lucky 

[Simon Galloway]

I may have missed something.. but what was the information that the bookies didn't have?

[Doobs]

I may have missed something.. but what was the information that the bookies didn't have?

Presumably this is just a general comment on the previous 843 pages?

[Tal]

It was the reference to my dad's conversation with one of the owners; there appears to have been a sizeable hit taken and an eagerness to recoup quickly from a horse they are convinced is running well.

It isn't groundbreaking for an owner to say "got a chance, this", but it seems a little more than one of those moments we have all had at the urinals at [insert name of racecourse]…

It is what it is and I have no problem in it being rejected/discredited/decimated. I'm not attached to either the bet or the horse emotionally. Instead, I had some information today, did a small amount of research to corroborate and posted it up here.

No harm done and always welcome feedback.

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 0530, Wednesday August 8th

PROFIT on Month £129.50

Unsettled Bets £387.50

The spreadsheet is here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[MereNovice]

Daily Report as @ 0530, Wednesday August 8th

A fairly quiet day by recent standards.

Norway's women beat Brazil 21-19 at handball in a game where defences dominated (or the attacks were poor - I'm not really qualified to determine which was the case). Norway were six goals down at one stage in the second half so they had a narrow escape. They now meet South Korea in the semi-finals at 5pm on Thursday. In a shock result in another quarter-final Montenegro beat France.

Fred placed a bet on Ivan Dychko to win the Super-heavyweight boxing.

Whittle Murtagh gave Fred a good run but finished third in the Wimbledon Puppy Derby.

Finally, in the medal table, GB&NI have 22 gold medals which is 10 clear of South Korea in 4th place.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/2012/medals/countries

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?

BBC2 puts out a big line-up headlined by "Cash In The Attic". ITV1 responds with "The Jeremy Kyle Show" and "Murder She Wrote". Channel 4 has "Hollyoaks" whilst Channel 5 has "Neighbours". Something for everyone there, I think you'll agree.

Meanwhile at the Olympics...

Brazil play Argentina at basketball at 8pm tonight.
http://www.london2012.com/basketball/event/men/match=bkm400301/index.html?v=20120807-000328122

Argentina are clear favourites but we have faith.
http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/basketball/mens/argentina-at-brazil/winner

Tom Stalker fights at 10pm tonight. He is up against Munkh-Erdene Uranchimeg of Mongolia.
http://www.london2012.com/boxing/event/men-light-welter-64kg/match=bxm064303/index.html

Stalker is currently best price of 4/1 for the gold medal and we have backed him at 6/1.
http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/boxing/mens/light-welterweight/winner

It's another packed day of athletics and there's all sorts of other stuff going on too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/2012/schedule-results

In tennis, the Rogers Cup continues.
In cycling, the Eneco tour continues.
There's some one day cricket with Derbyshire v Sussex.
In the Champion's League football Celtic are away to HJK Helsinki.
There's J League football to watch too.

[tikay]

Thanks for doing the Daily Things, Mere, I'm a but pushed for time & stuff this morning.

[bookiebasher]

Danny Graham 2-1 with vc corals top goalscorer for swansea. 4-6 with laddies.

Scored 12 last season , Sinclair next best with 8.

Proven goalscorer , suggest £100 @ .

[Junior Senior]

Just heard you can get Suarez at 16/1 for top prem scorer. Surely a great value each way? 1/4 the odds for top 4. He is going to play every game, expect Lollerpool to be much stronger this season and other top strikers apart from Rooney and may RVP will be rotated out too much.

Get on!

[bookiebasher]

Got £500 with Vc at , Corals max was a pathetic £25 which I declined.