Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Pretty sure the BadBeat model suggests we should offer up suggestions on where there might be "value" in the market because - for whatever reason - we believe the price is wrong.

Camel suggests 40-1 on Wenger might offer value. No one is suggesting Wenger is most likely to go and no one is suggesting he's a bad manager (even me...ish) but he has to go sometime and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he spits his dummy out in August when another player is sold under his nose.

We have established that the main contenders offer little prospect of return.

Look on the bright side...harry is free...

[TightEnd]

Pretty sure the BadBeat model suggests we should offer up suggestions on where there might be "value" in the market because - for whatever reason - we believe the price is wrong.

Camel suggests 40-1 on Wenger might offer value. No one is suggesting Wenger is most likely to go and no one is suggesting he's a bad manager (even me...ish) but he has to go sometime and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he spits his dummy out in August when another player is sold under his nose.

We have established that the main contenders offer little prospect of return.

Look on the bright side...harry is free...

Martin Jol 20-1, value you can't eat.

I'll shut up now ;-0

[ripple11]

Cricket end of Day 1

After being 55-4 and 105-5, for South Africa to end on 262-7 represents a decent recovery

However England's Day overall

Reflected in them going 6-4 favourites

Interestingly SA have not drifted much, generally 2-1

Of course the draw is unlikely now

Both new balls, especially the second which really boomerranged, moved under cloud cover and this is a pitch that will offer the SA bowlers plenty

What the thread does not want is a really sunny day tomorrow. Once the new ball lost its shine and the weather was it's best, the SA partnerships began coming in the lower middle order

Given similar conditions to today's general cloud cover though we have a very close test in prospect

rain early morning, clearing, leaving cloud cover until early afternoon, when sun will break through.

 Fred needs early quick runs and get England in.

[Chompy]

Racing Post tipped Adkins to be first out and made a pretty solid case tbf.

what is the case please?

that the moneybags want a bigger name?

Along those lines, that they've been waiting for the chance to get in a bigger name but never had any reason to get rid of Adkins the past couple of seasons. A few early setbacks and he could be out on his ear.

[smashedagain]

Racing Post tipped Adkins to be first out and made a pretty solid case tbf.

what is the case please?

that the moneybags want a bigger name?

Along those lines, that they've been waiting for the chance to get in a bigger name but never had any reason to get rid of Adkins the past couple of seasons. A few early setbacks and he could be out on his ear.

If this is the case hope they get another Harry Rednapp.

[JaffaCake]

Amazed at how bullish the Arsenal fans are for the forthcoming season, and I thought us Geordies were deluded. Watched Arsenal a few times last season, not sure where the strength in their squad is, they did a good impression of a one man team last season, and when u sell your one man, that doesn't bode well

[tikay]

Amazed at how bullish the Arsenal fans are for the forthcoming season, and I thought us Geordies were deluded. Watched Arsenal a few times last season, not sure where the strength in their squad is, they did a good impression of a one man team last season, and when u sell your one man, that doesn't bode well

Morning Jeff.

I think we can leave Karabiner to respond to that, with appropriate eloquence & gusto.

Tal can be the Referee. Wholly impartial of course.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0715, Friday August 17th

PROFIT on Month £164.50

Unsettled Bets  - £527.50

The spreadsheet is here...


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0730, Friday August 17th

No bets matured yesterday, two were in-running, & we placed just one new bet, which has yet to complete.

The new one was for a Hole in One in the Wyndham Golf, which began yesterday. No aces so far, (or not that I can see) & I have a bad feeling about this one, but they happen out of thin air, so to speak, & we have three days left.

I watched the very disappointing TV coverage last night, & the pins were not conducive to our bet from what I could see, but maybe they will be easier today. The greens have all been relaid apparently, though whether that makes a difference I have no idea.

Our two picks had very mixed fortunes. Toms is tailed off @ +4, & is highly unlikely to survive the cut, but 3G had a grand day, finishing tied 20th on -3, in the heart of the chasing pack, with the leader @ -8. If Belgium's finest has a reasonable day today, we are in with a shout, & we have him each way.

A real shame about the TV coverage, very second-rate, with very few cameras, most of the action recorded, & more studio talk than golf walk.

Our other action yesterday was our Max, on the 3rd Test between England & South Africa. Not a great day, but could have been worse.

The weather messed with us - unexpected cloud cover helped the ball move about - & South Africa were particularly unlucky with the dismissal of Kallis.

England are likely to be batting before lunch today, & South Africa need a good start in what will be the crucial session.

The Times told us this morning that the pitch at Lords does not worsen much over 5 days, which does not bode well, but at least England will have to bat last.

We have £150 @ 19/10 on South Africa.

Football talk again dominated, with much discussion about Arsenal, & Lord Wenger. Expect this to continue for a while, especially after Mr Kimber entered the fray. Both Kimber & Karabiner are unbeaten in debates. Something has to give.

A number of recommends were floated, we need to decide upon these today.

[tikay]

What's coming up?

The Third Test continues, it is televised throughout, but TMS is the preferred option. The first 2 sessions today will decide the course of this game.

Wyndham Golf reaches Day Two, we need Nick Colsaerts to have a good day. Ideally, he gets a Hole in One, too....

Rugby League is televised live this evening, with a lop-sided fixture between London Broncos v Warrington Wolves from The Stoop, Twickenham, which sits just 300 metres from Twickenham Stadium.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/club-rugby/super-league/london-broncos-v-warrington/winner

This weekend sees the beginning of the Football Season, & is marked by a Friday night televised game between Cardiff City & Huddersfield Town. It has yet to be established whether tonight counts as "weekend" for our Mobot bet, personally I am pretty sure it does not. We shall see.

Tomorrow - Saturday - the Premiership Football season commences, the first televised game being Newcastle v Spurs. Dare you to call that one.

But bigger than ALL those tomorrow, is.....yes, you've guessed - Miss World.

The Market for this is most odd. 2nd Favourite is Miss China PR, who varies between 5/1 & 11/1, Miss Jamaica varies from 16/1 to 28/1, & Miss Philippines varies from 20/1 to 50/1. If only Betfair had a market for it, but they don't appear to.

 http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/awards/miss-world/pageant-winner

Quite a thing this - it even has it's own Wiki Page, & Miss World 2012 has been in progress for some time, with various sub-categories already being decided.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_World_2012

Here's the likely winner.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Portsmouth looking to sign 10 players before Saturday's match.

This refers to the tip put up for Bournemouth to beat Portsmouth, due to the problems at Fratton Park.

Current prices are here, with Bournemouth still a shade under evens generally.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/portsmouth-v-bournemouth/winner

[rfgqqabc]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

They don't look a million miles off. 1/5 Sotton atm. 17/11 vs Lpool, 2/9 vs QPR, 6/11 Stoke, 8/11 vs Arse, 4/7 Fulham. These are best prices and Acc @ £1 stake returns 15.66 on Lads Bet Calc. Looks a great price to me.

If they have won their first 4 and 5 games, they'd be alot shorter for Arsenal and Fulham.

4/7 and 4/9ish

Did the same for Man U which is win first 6 games @ 33/1 and got £1 returns 16.18

£15 on both Tikay?

Edit: City into 20s and Man U into 25s. Man U prob worth small city closer, £10 City, £15 Man U?

Whilst the price move for Man City makes it a lot lower value, Man U probably a bet with the best price return on oddschecker currently returning 16.18 for a £1 bet on Man U win for the first 6.

City into 20s, a lot closer.

Recommend £10 @ 25/1 Betfred Man U to win first 6 games, enhanced price.

[tikay]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

I'm not doing a Herbie here Doobs, I'm genuinely curious - why would it cause bad feeling itt?

[tikay]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

They don't look a million miles off. 1/5 Sotton atm. 17/11 vs Lpool, 2/9 vs QPR, 6/11 Stoke, 8/11 vs Arse, 4/7 Fulham. These are best prices and Acc @ £1 stake returns 15.66 on Lads Bet Calc. Looks a great price to me.

If they have won their first 4 and 5 games, they'd be alot shorter for Arsenal and Fulham.

4/7 and 4/9ish

Did the same for Man U which is win first 6 games @ 33/1 and got £1 returns 16.18

£15 on both Tikay?

Edit: City into 20s and Man U into 25s. Man U prob worth small city closer, £10 City, £15 Man U?

Whilst the price move for Man City makes it a lot lower value, Man U probably a bet with the best price return on oddschecker currently returning 16.18 for a £1 bet on Man U win for the first 6.

City into 20s, a lot closer.

Recommend £10 @ 25/1 Betfred Man U to win first 6 games, enhanced price.

I was just looking for that debate, thanks for sticking it up again.

I'm really struiggling with this.

I know everyone is going to shout at me, bla bla bla, value etc, but.....

A SIX-TIMER?

Every ounce of my body & heart screams that makes no logical sense. It is extremely rare for a Team to win 6 on the bounce. I accept, though, that 25/1 IS a good price for such an unlikely eventuality.

For the sake of £10, yes, we'll have a bash, & maybe w'll have a good sweat for 3 or 4 games. Or 5, or even 6.....

[Rubbish2407]

News on the grapevine is that QPR have added Jose Bowinga to their ranks. Another rumour surfacing is that Barton is off to Marseille on a season long loan and Stephane Mbia, the Cameroon International, is heading to London. He would be another huge signing along with Ji Sung Park and keeping hold of Taarabat.

QPR are currently +37 points in the Premiership handicap on Betfair and I can see them easily getting 50 odd points this season. 89 points won it last year which means they would have to win 5 more games than last season with a vastly superior squad. I believe there are some QPR fans on here who might add something to this, I've had a cheeky £20 at 14s for a season long sweat. I may even top up if I can find the bet on other sites I use, according to Oddschecker only on PP, Betfred and Totesport are currently offering these bets.

Please note neither of these transfers have been confirmed by the Club as far as I know.