Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

They don't look a million miles off. 1/5 Sotton atm. 17/11 vs Lpool, 2/9 vs QPR, 6/11 Stoke, 8/11 vs Arse, 4/7 Fulham. These are best prices and Acc @ £1 stake returns 15.66 on Lads Bet Calc. Looks a great price to me.

If they have won their first 4 and 5 games, they'd be alot shorter for Arsenal and Fulham.

4/7 and 4/9ish

Did the same for Man U which is win first 6 games @ 33/1 and got £1 returns 16.18

£15 on both Tikay?

Edit: City into 20s and Man U into 25s. Man U prob worth small city closer, £10 City, £15 Man U?

Whilst the price move for Man City makes it a lot lower value, Man U probably a bet with the best price return on oddschecker currently returning 16.18 for a £1 bet on Man U win for the first 6.

City into 20s, a lot closer.

Recommend £10 @ 25/1 Betfred Man U to win first 6 games, enhanced price.

We are on for a proper Banzai.

Man Utd to win first 6 Premiership games, £10 @ 25/1 with Betfred.

ON

MEN Specials - Man Utd 2012/2013
Enhanced United To Win Their First 6 League Games
 Enhanced United To Win Their First 6 League Games 25/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 260.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 260.00

[tikay]

News on the grapevine is that QPR have added Jose Bowinga to their ranks. Another rumour surfacing is that Barton is off to Marseille on a season long loan and Stephane Mbia, the Cameroon International, is heading to London. He would be another huge signing along with Ji Sung Park and keeping hold of Taarabat.

QPR are currently +37 points in the Premiership handicap on Betfair and I can see them easily getting 50 odd points this season. 89 points won it last year which means they would have to win 5 more games than last season with a vastly superior squad. I believe there are some QPR fans on here who might add something to this, I've had a cheeky £20 at 14s for a season long sweat. I may even top up if I can find the bet on other sites I use, according to Oddschecker only on PP, Betfred and Totesport are currently offering these bets.

Please note neither of these transfers have been confirmed by the Club as far as I know.

Thanks.

We have a number of QPR specialists amongst the Fred Regulars, so let's see what they have to say.

[tikay]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

For the other half of this Manchester Banzai, I've had a Tenner @ 20/1 on Man City also with Betfred to win their first 6 games, too.

ON

MEN Specials - Man City 2012/2013
Enhanced City To Win Their First 6 League Games
 Enhanced City To Win Their First 6 League Games 20/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 210.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 210.00

[tikay]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

They don't look a million miles off. 1/5 Sotton atm. 17/11 vs Lpool, 2/9 vs QPR, 6/11 Stoke, 8/11 vs Arse, 4/7 Fulham. These are best prices and Acc @ £1 stake returns 15.66 on Lads Bet Calc. Looks a great price to me.

If they have won their first 4 and 5 games, they'd be alot shorter for Arsenal and Fulham.

4/7 and 4/9ish

Did the same for Man U which is win first 6 games @ 33/1 and got £1 returns 16.18

£15 on both Tikay?

Edit: City into 20s and Man U into 25s. Man U prob worth small city closer, £10 City, £15 Man U?

We had a Fun Tenner on each in the end. I hate these bets though!

[Rubbish2407]

Sorry, I was looking at a different handicap list on Oddschecker. Nearly every Bookie has this bet on offer, some with better starting handicaps.

[tikay]

Stat research is nicked, but interesting

The Premiership next manager to leave market (sacked, manager walk out)

Been a sustained move on Nigel Adkins today down to favourite

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post

However this is generally not a market where the favourite pre-season comes in

In the last nine years, two favourites have come in (Hart. Curbishley)

Other prices of winners have been

12-1
12-1
12-1
16-1
20-1
25-1
33-1

So looking at this market, I wanted to look at the candidates and try to find those we can reasonably rule out even with a disappointing start

Adkins? Took them up, expectations are to stay up. Slow start season to be expected
Laudrup? New manager, patient board
Allardyce? Trigger happy and stupid board with a love of the headlines, a possibility but no value at 7-1
Clarke? New manager, patient board
Hughes? Lots of investment in team, board can be quick to act. A possibility
Di Matteo? Just won Champions League. Abramovich, so can't rule it out, but unlikely pre-Xmas
Pulis? Possibility with a disappointing start, no board track record of kneejerk though
McDermott? Board Happy to go up, expectations not inflated
Hughton? New manager, patient board
Martinez? Extremely patient chairman, could have sacked him when in bottom 3 each of last two seasons, didn't
Jol? Possibility with a slow start. Fayed. Dempsey and Dembele crucial this transfer window. Jol has one year left on his contract

and after that I saw no names that you could reasonably expect to be first eg AVB, Pardew, Wenger, Moyes, SAF, Rodgers

So, for discussion, my two against the field (Assume a slow disappointing start, assume trigger happy board) are QPR/Fulham

Defer thoughts on Hughes to The Camel

QPR's start

August 18: Swansea (H)

August 25: Norwich (A)

September 1: Man City (A)

September 15: Chelsea (H)

September 22: Tottenham (A)

September 29: West Ham (H)


Fulham...and Jol at 20-1 is interesting

Fulham's start

FULHAM fixtures for the 2012/13 Premier League season:

August

18 Norwich (H)

25 Man Utd (A)

September

1 West Ham (A)

15 West Brom (H)

22 Wigan (A)

29 Man City (H)




Thoughts?

I just don't see a standout bet here Rich. If I had to bet, I guess I'd be on AVB, as I believe Spurs will struggle to finish top half this season. 

There you go, bookmark that so you can throw it back at me next April or May.....

[tikay]

Pretty sure the BadBeat model suggests we should offer up suggestions on where there might be "value" in the market because - for whatever reason - we believe the price is wrong.

Camel suggests 40-1 on Wenger might offer value. No one is suggesting Wenger is most likely to go and no one is suggesting he's a bad manager (even me...ish) but he has to go sometime and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he spits his dummy out in August when another player is sold under his nose.

We have established that the main contenders offer little prospect of return.

Look on the bright side...harry is free...

Winner, "Rub of the Day".

[rfgqqabc]

Would like to back Tighty/Camel up on there banzais. Not sure if I'll follow in yet cos I'm in for a decent amount antepost, will probably be having smallish bets no matter what tho.

[horseplayer]

Pretty sure the BadBeat model suggests we should offer up suggestions on where there might be "value" in the market because - for whatever reason - we believe the price is wrong.

Camel suggests 40-1 on Wenger might offer value. No one is suggesting Wenger is most likely to go and no one is suggesting he's a bad manager (even me...ish) but he has to go sometime and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that he spits his dummy out in August when another player is sold under his nose.

We have established that the main contenders offer little prospect of return.

Look on the bright side...harry is free...

Winner, "Rub of the Day".

he does appear to have learnt how to use a laptop however in his holiday period?

must have taken a  course

[Rubbish2407]

QPR's starting line up could be:

        Rob Green

Boswinga, Ferdinand, Mbia, Fabio

Dyer, Park, Taraabat, SW Phillips

        Cisse, Zamora

That seems pretty decent to me although I'm sure someone will offer up an alternative starting XI.

[Josedinho]

News on the grapevine is that QPR have added Jose Bowinga to their ranks. Another rumour surfacing is that Barton is off to Marseille on a season long loan and Stephane Mbia, the Cameroon International, is heading to London. He would be another huge signing along with Ji Sung Park and keeping hold of Taarabat.

QPR are currently +37 points in the Premiership handicap on Betfair and I can see them easily getting 50 odd points this season. 89 points won it last year which means they would have to win 5 more games than last season with a vastly superior squad. I believe there are some QPR fans on here who might add something to this, I've had a cheeky £20 at 14s for a season long sweat. I may even top up if I can find the bet on other sites I use, according to Oddschecker only on PP, Betfred and Totesport are currently offering these bets.

Please note neither of these transfers have been confirmed by the Club as far as I know.

Thanks.

We have a number of QPR specialists amongst the Fred Regulars, so let's see what they have to say.

89 points won the league but not the handicap league.

[tikay]

Would like to back Tighty/Camel up on there banzais. Not sure if I'll follow in yet cos I'm in for a decent amount antepost, will probably be having smallish bets no matter what tho.

Remind me - which ones? Hard to keep track on here some days.

Note that Tighty has a banzai in progress already. The Test Match......or more correctly, The Test Max.

[horseplayer]

QPR's starting line up could be:

        Rob Green

Boswinga, Ferdinand, Mbia, Fabio

Dyer, Park, Taraabat, SW Phillips

        Cisse, Zamora

That seems pretty decent to me although I'm sure someone will offer up an alternative starting XI.

shame about rob green dyer and sw phillips in that

[Rubbish2407]

News on the grapevine is that QPR have added Jose Bowinga to their ranks. Another rumour surfacing is that Barton is off to Marseille on a season long loan and Stephane Mbia, the Cameroon International, is heading to London. He would be another huge signing along with Ji Sung Park and keeping hold of Taarabat.

QPR are currently +37 points in the Premiership handicap on Betfair and I can see them easily getting 50 odd points this season. 89 points won it last year which means they would have to win 5 more games than last season with a vastly superior squad. I believe there are some QPR fans on here who might add something to this, I've had a cheeky £20 at 14s for a season long sweat. I may even top up if I can find the bet on other sites I use, according to Oddschecker only on PP, Betfred and Totesport are currently offering these bets.

Please note neither of these transfers have been confirmed by the Club as far as I know.

Thanks.

We have a number of QPR specialists amongst the Fred Regulars, so let's see what they have to say.

89 points won the league but not the handicap league.

Oh, how much won the Handicap League.

[Karabiner]

QPR's starting line up could be:

        Rob Green

Boswinga, Ferdinand, Mbia, Fabio

Dyer, Park, Taraabat, SW Phillips

        Cisse, Zamora

That seems pretty decent to me although I'm sure someone will offer up an alternative starting XI.

shame about rob green dyer and sw phillips in that

I reckon Hoilet will start.